Categories for Data and Modelling
The SAGE Models are Already Wrong
In a recent article, we considered the implications of the U.K.’s spring rise in infections, given that before now the...
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New Paper Claims Lockdowns Do Not Cause More Health Harms Than They Prevent, but It Misses the Big Picture
A new paper claims that lockdowns do not cause more health harms than they prevent. But the harmful long-term effects of lockdown are yet to be quantified, so the authors have little basis for their conclusion.
Read moreVaccine Passports are Dead – Long Live Vaccine Passports!
by David Livermore Vaccine passports or certificates – an idea we thought dead – have, regrettably, just been sleeping. With...
Read moreHas the Delta Variant Killed Seasonality – or Just Freedom?
The pre-Covid scientific literature indicates there are already four known coronaviruses in circulation, which are – like ’flu – predominantly...
Read moreThe Irrationality of the Lockdowns
by Glen Bishop Much has been said on Lockdown Sceptics about how poor the SPI-M modelling has been – the...
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Sweden’s Mortality Rate Last Year Was Lower Than in 2015
Last year, the UK's age-standardised mortality rate returned to the level of 2008. People claim it would have risen far more in the absence of lockdowns. Yet Sweden's rate only returned to the level of 2015.
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Taking the Average of 2019 and 2020, Sweden Had Lower Mortality Than Both Denmark and Finland
Sweden saw particularly low mortality in 2019, which may partly explain why its mortality rate rose in 2020. Taking the average of 2019 and 2020, Sweden had lower mortality than both Denmark and Finland.
Read moreThe Data Suggest We Achieved Herd Immunity Before the Vaccines Were Rolled Out
Summary Population immunity played a major role in ending each wave of SAR-CoV-2 infection Herd immunity thresholds differ by about...
Read moreNot So SAGE After All: A Review of the Latest Models
by Glen Bishop The latest release of papers from SAGE, modelling the relaxation of restrictions, tells us more about the...
Read moreSAGE Modelling From May Last Year Said Approach Recommended in Great Barrington Declaration Was Least Bad Alternative to Lockdown
by Glen Bishop In May last year, after the UK had been plunged into lockdown for the first time, the...
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