Since the beginning of 2021, excess deaths have been running lower – often much lower – than official COVID-19 deaths in Europe. The latter measure is now substantially overstating the pandemic's death toll.
Deaths in England and Wales have been below the five-year average for 11 of the past 12 weeks. Given that 80% of adults now have COVID antibodies, what possible grounds could there be to delay the full reopening?
In a recent article, Bret Weinstein argues that we should welcome the lab leak theory. This is because, if it turns out to be true, we know how to prevent future pandemics of this kind. Simple: ban the research.
Researchers examined the impact of localised lockdowns in Chile. They found that that a three-to-four month lockdown would reduce economic activity by roughly the same amount as one year of the 2009 Great Recession.
German researchers looked at changes in the R number over time, and found they had "no direct connection" with lockdown measures. Significantly, infections were already declining when lockdowns were imposed last March.
Last year, the UK's age-standardised mortality rate returned to the level of 2008. People claim it would have risen far more in the absence of lockdowns. Yet Sweden's rate only returned to the level of 2015.
Evidence suggests that care homes achieved a degree of focussed protection in the second wave. Perhaps if more attention had been paid to shielding in the first wave, Britain's overall death toll would be lower.
Shutting the borders in January would have bought us time, but it might have simply postponed the epidemic until the winter. Cummings is therefore wrong to suggest that it was "obviously" the right thing to do.
A recent New York Times article claims that "Britain had more daily Covid-related deaths during the surge involving B.1.1.7". However, peak weekly mortality was actually lower in the second wave than in the first.
Researchers found that remote learning was associated with large increases in school dropout and learning losses in Brazil. They conclude that "the societal costs of keeping schools closed ... are very large".
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