Keir Starmer’s Iran Problem

In a piece for the Daily Sceptic last year, I outlined the existential crisis facing Labour. While the party was still enjoying moderate support in the opinion polls, practically all major Left-wing social media activists had abandoned it. This most important reason for this was simple: Labour’s stance on Gaza.

Ordinary Left-wing voters care primarily about issues like the NHS and the cost of living. However, the sorts of people who shape public opinion — influencers, journalists and campaigners — care a great deal about Gaza. And they are very dissatisfied with Labour’s stance on the issue. As a consequence, they’ve largely shifted to supporting other parties, notably the Greens.

Now Labour’s problems seem to be getting worse. Since the start of the Iran War, Sir Keir Starmer has tried to position himself as a stalwart defender of British national interests, steadfastly refusing to join the much-criticised US-Israeli bombing campaign. But the Left-wing social media activists aren’t buying it.

In a viral tweet posted at the end of March, Starmer claimed that “we aren’t getting dragged into the Middle East conflict” because “I will always make decisions that are in the national interest”.

However, the tweet got heavily ratioed by thousands of negative comments. All the most popular ones were comments from large Left-wing accounts denouncing the Prime Minister for allowing US bombers to take off from British airfields.

After all, the Government had initially refused the use of British airfields on the grounds that any bombing campaign would violate international law, only to backtrack after a phone call with Trump. And several European countries have gone as far as denying their airspace to the Americans.

Meanwhile, Zack Polanski, Jeremy Corbyn and other popular Left-wing politicians have been repeatedly pointing out Britain’s obvious complicity in the war. (Starmer’s own net approval rating is hovering at minus-50.) Suppose that Ireland allowed Russia to use Irish airfields to strike Britain. Would we say that Ireland had ‘not been dragged into the conflict’? It’s preposterous — and the Left-wing influencers aren’t fooled.

A YouGov poll asked Britons whether they supported the US-Israeli bombing campaign. A majority of all voters and an overwhelming majority of Left-wing voters — 80% of Labour voters, 86% of Lib Dems and 88% of Greens — said they opposed it.

Likewise, a More in Common poll asked Britons which side in the conflict they sympathise with more. By far the most common answer among all voters was “neither”. But what’s remarkable is that among Labour voters, about as many said “the Iranian side” as said “the Israeli and American side”. And among Lib Dem and Green voters, more said “the Iranian side”. Among Conservative and Reform voters, by contrast, more said “the Israeli and American side”.

So rather than remaining neutral like several European Governments, Keir Starmer is supporting the side that is favoured by most Right-wing voters but disfavoured by most Left-wing voters.

All this has to be understood in a context where Trump and his foreign policy are extremely unpopular. The US President has a net approval rating of minus-65 (even lower than Starmer). And when asked whether the US has had a positive or negative impact on the world in recent years, about 85% of Left-wing voters say “negative”.

A party that relies on young people simply cannot be successful in today’s political environment if it lacks support on social media. And while Starmer’s Middle East policy may not be the only grievance that Left-wing influencers have against Labour, it’s surely an important one. A recent seat projection put the Greens on 104 and Labour on just nine. If Starmer can’t stop haemorrhaging voters, even that may prove optimistic.