Why Civil War in Britain Is Unlikely
At the end of October, Elon Musk doubled down on his prediction that “civil war in Britain is inevitable”, having made the same pronouncement in August of 2024. Interestingly, he is far from the only commentator who sees full-blown armed conflict in Britain’s future.
The retired Colonel Richard Kemp has stated in an interview that he believes “not just civil unrest but civil war is coming to the UK in the coming years”. The academics David Betz and Michael Rainsborough have been sounding the alarm for several years, including in a recent essay for the Daily Sceptic.
Betz and Rainsborough list several factors that portend the outbreak of civil war, such as cratering trust in government, public anger over uncontrolled immigration, and support for political violence in surveys. They also point to real-world examples of violence, such as the anti-immigration riots that erupted in the summer of 2024, which they say reveal a shift in mood toward open defiance of the state.
While they make a number of valid points in their essay, I do not believe civil war in Britain is likely.
To begin with, we must define the term. Although there is some disagreement among scholars, most definitions mention protracted armed conflict between two or more organised groups — meaning that sporadic acts of terrorism or gang violence do not qualify. Some scholars even specify a minimum number of deaths. According to the Correlates of War project, “war must involve sustained combat, involving organized armed forces, resulting in a minimum of 1,000 battle-related combatant fatalities within a twelve month period”.
For illustration, the US had about 17,000 murders in 2024 — a per-capita rate more than five times higher than the UK. Yet America is obviously not embroiled in civil war, as the violence there is low-level and disorganised.
Which raises the question: if Britain had a civil war, who would the sides be? The Left against the Right? Muslims versus non-Muslims? The state against non-state actors? It’s not clear.
There are only two conflicts in Western Europe from the last half century that could reasonably be classed as civil wars: the Troubles in Northern Ireland and the Basque Conflict in Spain. Both of these had clear sides: Irish nationalists against the British state in the former, and Basque separatists against the Spanish state in the latter. It is difficult to identify any analogous political cleavage in modern Britain.
Even the Muslim population is spread across half a dozen cities, and is divided up into Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Arabs, Turks, Somalis and others — groups with different national languages that often observe different traditions.
Betz and Rainsborough are correct about certain conditions that raise the risk of civil war being present in the UK: ethnic diversity, economic stagnation, widespread perceptions of elite failure. But it’s also true that the underlying risk in Western countries is low to begin with. (Civil wars are overwhelmingly concentrated outside the West.) And doubling or even tripling a low risk is still a low risk.
What is more, certain conditions that reduce the risk of civil war are also present. The country is heavily surveilled. It has an ageing population. It has a low rate of gun ownership. It has a powerful and centralised military that could presumably quash any attempted insurrection. It has few forests or mountainous areas for insurgents to hide out. And it is an island, which makes it hard to smuggle in weapons from the outside.
The fault lines that Betz and Rainsborough sketch out are real, and may well contribute to elevated risks of terrorism, race riots or other forms of civil unrest going forward. However, I’m not convinced that an actual civil war is on the cards.
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Only in a country with the most execrable governance and overreach could the possibility of civil war, civil disobedience, or revolution emerge.
Should the outcome of next election be such that a ruling coalition of Labour, Greens and Lib Dems forms a Government… light blue touch paper, stand well back.
I rather think a sullen, non violent, rebellion against the State is more likely. Indeed we may even be in a low key rebellion now – ever since the Brexit referendum perhaps?
Both Labour and Conservatives out of favour, increasing taxes and decreasing services, no end of the misery in sight. Most people still keeping their heads down… but it would only take one spark. Which I think explains the Government trying to rein in debate and controversial views.
What would you describe as a spark of that nature? Children being stabbed at a pop concert? Perhaps thousands of hostile alien young men being brought into the country and afforded the best of services whilst veterans and the indigenous population are neglected? If neither of the above, what about ever-increasing State interference into the lives of the populace and an ever-increasing cost of living? How about the dismantling of critical infrastructure in favour of boondoggles which benefit private investors at public cost?
Nah, a spark won’t set anything off. More like a flamethrower, and I don’t want to imagine what that might look like.
Most people are not aware of these problems, or are aware of only the particular narrow aspect that affects their own lives. They don’t have a joined up view of the totality of the problem. Thanks to the government still being largely in control of the narrative, and using censorship laws to strengthen that control.
Shame.
My pitchfork is at the ready.
That’s why it isn’t going to happen… when all you have is a man with a pitchfork, and another with a kitchen knife tied to a broomstick, serious insurrection is off the table.
Quite right. We now live in a technocracy which can switch off our life support systems at will. Living in a dystopian society will not suit most people.
Don’t tell him Pike.
We already have civil war in Britain. What do you think the mass rapes of white children by the imported people is about? What do you think the endless murders of our people by the imported people is about? Love and kindness?
What’s extraordinary about our situation is that our own government and rulers have taken sides with the enemy.
The revolution in the 13 Colonies was ten years in the making.
Wars invariably start before the first shot rings out.
Probably unlikely but the white working class against most of the rest would be the sides
The “sides” I thought were obvious. It’s the current government and their useful idiots versus everyone else. And it’s already in progress… right now it’s largely non violent however.
Agree. A Cold War of sorts, but it’ll never get “hot”.
Every civil conflict is decided by the fence sitters. People who aren’t closely aligned with either side, but when push comes to shove need to get behind one group or the other. The question is, will they be with us or against us?
Again, too much academic analysis of terms. A civil war is a war between different factions of civilians of the same geographically defined region – normally a country. It doesn’t have to cut across nice, neat, bilateral lines; the factions could be religious, ethnic, political, or a mixture of these, with some factions naturally aligning with another e.g. left-wing English and Muslims. I do agree, however, that civil war is unlikely. If the vast majority of the population couldn’t think for themselves during Covid or show any dissent whatsoever, then why would they suddenly grow a spine and resist an ever increasing totalitarian state that dismisses their concerns with the wave of a ‘far-right’ hand. In fact, similarly to the Covid years, exactly what most the proles are doing is bending over and politely asking to be left not too sore.
If it were to happen, it would be on the basis of lowest common denominator, I suspect…
Which means anyone ‘not like us’ and especially those who can’t speak the language. Ironically, perhaps, that approach works for both sides.
War is messy and vile, Civil War is doubly so turning, as it does, brother against brother and neighbour against neighbour.
Civil wars don’t occur because plebs are unhappy.
Civil wars are fights between factions of the elites or establishment of a country. The plebs are the useful idiots that are riled up and sent to die.
I don’t see much conflict within the elites or establishment of this country.
The only way I could see it happening here is if the military were to turn on the State. That is categorically not going to happen. We no longer have any military brass who have the necessary ideology or the stones to do it. They have mostly been completely captured, and weak vassals of the Woke State placed in those positions. People with the necessary qualities do still exist, but they are no longer in command.
Napoleon Bonaparte was a young and essentially unknown artillery officer with nothing of interest or note in his previous biography, who quite unexpectedly disobeyed an order and ordered his men to open fire on a mob who were about to pillage defenseless shopkeepers in Paris. This instantly won him the sympathy and admiration of all those who had had enough of the revolution and the chaos it had brought on the suffering population. The rest is history.
Good point. It would appear that globalism has kept the corporate elites and political establishment in full lockstep with each other. The mostly political left establishment get the ideological advances that they want and the corporates have enjoyed the wealth thrown off from the off shoring of industries, the racket that is Public Private Initiative, bank bail outs, quantitative easing, regulations that allow large corporations economies of scale but disadvantage small and medium sized companies and of course the lobbying power of corporates. Presumably when their cozy relationship ends, as it will at some point, then they will each attempt to rally the plebs to takes sides.
‘…a powerful and centralised military’
Nope.
Noah, sure ‘war’ today is more than armed conflict? Shutting up half of society through a ‘Ministry of Truth’ telling us what we can and cannot say? Shutting down internet communication? Trying to cancel elections? Subjugating our domestic rule of law to a foreign unelected body of judges like the ECHR? Changing the culture of a country by subjugating our Judeo-Christian culture to other moral compasses?
So yes, if you define ‘war’ as armed conflict you may be right. But ‘civil’ war today will use tools not available when Cromwell was around!
A civil war requires two sets of elites who are opposed to each other.
Charles I divided the elite when he moved his government to Oxford. The aristocrats’ loyalty was divided; some supporting Charles and others, Parliament.
Betz adds further qualifiers to what constitutes a civil war. All factions were originally under one sovereign government. And unlike a revolution which is of short duration in its violent phase, a civil war’s violent phase lasts much longer.
Next time you go out, take a long hard look at the shambing, clueless mouth- breathers in Tesco, the overweight single mums with their vacant screen-gazing offspring in Primark, all the saturated-fat-sugar junkies with their fat arses parked on plastic chairs at the local McOffals, the computer-says-no halfwits manning the NHS no-access-barriers, the army of ever expanding public sector midwits receiving inflated universal-basic-income-plus salaries (for doing basically nothing much other than supporting the regime), the legacy media parasites, almost everyone in London, the vast majority of the subsidy-junkey Scots and Welsh…….do any of these mouth-breathing sheep/hard-of-thinking/lefty idealogues and gaulieters look like people who might challenge the regime?
For a civil war to happen people have to actually believe in something they think is worth fighting (and possibly dying) for.
2026 Britain – I don’t think so.
Civil wars are not started by such people. There are plenty of angry, intelligent ones. I would join an insurrection when the time is right; when the state loses control and cannot just round me up and imprison me at a whim. I, and many like me, are very, very angry.
The military is made up of lots of working class lads. The women are a waste of time. The lads will chose their side when the chips are down. The armed forces will not be a coherent weapon against the people. And they are laughably small, nowadays.
Civil war/disorder comes as a surprise. It often cannot be predicted. If angry people don’t get what they want, and are left with no choices, they will react.
Insurrections often happen spontaneously. Think of Budapest 1956. Enough people who are dissatisfied, each for their own reasons, There was no clear leadership, just people who saw that others were beginning to fight and deciding to join in. But that’s just the initial phase. In a second phase the elites take sides and seek to channel the uprising for their own ends and to regain control.
“And it is an island, which makes it hard to smuggle in weapons from the outside.”
The IRA proved this was not a difficulty.
Or, more recently, the conviction of Walid Saadaoui, 38, and Amar Hussein, 52, who were found guilty of buying assault rifles, handguns and ammunition for the suicide attack they planned on Jewish targets.
As an aside, they saw any Christian victims “as a bonus”.
I’m not sure on this at all but what cannot be avoided is that tens of thousands of single, military aged and trained men are being brought in to this country and are being looked after as if they were regiments of soldiers on R and R. So something’s afoot and it’s not for our benefit.
It’s really a question of how kinetic you want it.
Some would say its virtually inevitable given the stance of the government and the attitude of certain minorities.
“Why Civil War in Britain Is Unlikely”
I’ll file that under: Famous Last Words.
Has any war ever been predicted right up to – why did nobody see that coming?
The end of The Troubles in NI… not in our lifetime.
Collapse of the USSR… not in our lifetime.
No way Saddam would be mad enough to invade Kuwait.
Musk, and Betz etc, is right. The civil war has already started but it will only get hot when the Muslims and their traitorous pals get impatient at the speed of their takeover. Or if Rupert and Ben get in and start to try to save us. Otherwise if the Muslims remain patient they will win and all our daughters will be in burqas in 20 years.
The very fabric of the nation is being destroyed with mass immigration and pretend to save the planet lowering of living standards, but we all just TAKE IT and say plenty but do NOTHING.
I do not anticipate a Civil War like the English Civil War of the 17th century, or the American Civil War of the 19th century.
I DO anticipate ongoing Civil Unrest, like the Northern Ireland “Troubles.”
I think it has already started.
Especially if we see a genuine attempt to remove thousands of illegal migrants many of whom will be embedded within various “communities”. Make the ICE stuff in USA look like a teddy bears picnic.
What an incredibly patronising article, and throughly wrong, anyone would think you work for the Government, clearly have no clue as to how people will not take much more and given nothing to lose but our future and childrens future, dont think it will all be polite stiff upper lip!!
I expect a government debt crisis followed by very unpopular cuts in welfare spending. I expect major blackouts as the lunatic Miliband drives the power grid into the ground. I expect more islamist terror attacks. I expect another million people to attend a Tommy Robinson rally. I expect vigilante patrols to deter illegal migrants from raping children. At some point everyone will start to realise that Britain has become Lebanon.
For a civil war, you need two obvious opposing sides within the population which, as the author states, we don’t have. I think an uprising against the government would be more likely, but given how fragmented and disunited British society has become, I don’t think that will happen either. We’ll just do the usual British thing of voting in the next election and moaning if the new government doesn’t make things better.