Labour on Course For “Very large” Losses in Local Elections
Sir Keir Starmer faces “very, very large” losses in next year’s local elections, a polling expert has predicted. The Telegraph has more.
Lord Hayward said the Prime Minister would suffer heavy losses in English council elections, defeat in the Welsh Senedd and a “battering” in the Scottish Parliament on May 7th.
Dismal results for Labour could reignite the question of whether Sir Keir should continue to lead the party, which exploded into the headlines in November following an anonymous briefing from his allies against potential rivals.
In England, results will depend on where elections go ahead, with several councils expected to defer polls to 2027 to focus on a reorganisation of local government.
But elections in London and other metropolitan areas in Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire are set to go ahead.
While these areas have recently been Labour-dominated, Lord Hayward said the party was heading for defeats to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and, in east London, pro-Gaza independent candidates.
Even the Conservatives could pick up seats in London, he said, although the Tories’ overall result will depend on whether elections go ahead in counties where they won heavily in 2021.
Gains in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help shore up Kemi Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader, which has appeared more secure in recent months.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, said: “A few months ago, it looked as if May 7th would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.
“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”
He added that while Labour and possibly the Conservatives were on course to lose seats in May, there would be no clear victor, but a “cacophony of winners”.
Lord Hayward said Reform – starting from a low base – was likely to make the most gains, but a range of other parties were expected to claim some sort of victory on the night, with a clear picture perhaps only emerging in the days following the elections.
Despite what could be significant changes in England, Lord Hayward suggested it was the results in Scotland and Wales that could have the most long-term significance for the UK.
Labour had been expecting to supplant the SNP and return to power at Holyrood in 2026.
But that prospect now seems unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the party was on course for “one hell of a battering” while the SNP, Reform and the Greens could do well.
In Wales, the picture is more complicated, given the change in the electoral system, the increase in the size of the Senedd and the lowering of the voting age to 16.
Especially in light of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are on course to do well at Labour’s expense.
Worth reading in full.
Stop Press: In the Spectator, Robin Ashendon explains how Kemi bounced back.
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According to James Frayne in today’s DT, after the next election, there is a chance for a National Government, or a Reform Tory coalition, or, far more likely, Ed Miliband the new PM as part of a progressive coalition with (Green) Zack Polanski as deputy. Was James throwing a Rage Bait?
No. Selling newspapers.
Your eyeballs are belong to us.
MiliTwat could well replace Two Tier next year given he is first choice of the party members who get to decide. At least that means the government will not improve its chances of doing well come 2029.
It is hard to see anything but disaster for the Tories. Their leader will continue to be painted as the Opposition leader who connived at the cancellation of elections for party advantage.
And who collaborated or acquiesced in many distinctly unconservative policies, as did many of her fellow MPs and shadow cabinet ministers. The party that brought you “Covid”, “net zero”, the “Boriswave”, high taxes.
A bunch of deceitful crooks. Don’t ever trust them again. If you do, more fool you.
I certainly won’t
And in 14 years – well the Call Me Dave government was a Liberal one as the tail wagged the dog – the Tories did nothing to roll back all the socialist crap the evil Blair creature foisted on to the country.
To be “fair” – no Tory Government since 1951 (Margaret Thatcher excepted) did anything to roll back the Socialist crap introduced by the Labour Government of 1945; the Tories just accepted Labour’s Marxist-Socialist “reforms” and carried on with them as the norm.
Kemi’s “bounce back” is due to her improved performance at the despatch box during PMQs, but it’s performance in contact with the people that matters – and she ain’t got what it takes unlike Nigel Farage.
And unlike Nigel Farage, Kemi is not the embodiment of the Party: she has no carisma, no real connection with the awful populist class, promises no hope, just lots of “me-too” policies and “maybes” to copy Reform but which are reverses of previous Tory policies which nobody believes would be carried out in the event they won since at root they are anathema to the body of the Parliamentary Conservatives, who in Office would nix them.
I am looking forward to the May election. I do not think that the local government changes Ranting has come up with after 5 minutes thought are a good idea and will in anyway make things better. At least as a leading trial county, we can see if East Surrey can move to Reform and maybe take the Mayoralty too.
I wonder how Keir Stalin will arrange to cancel the Sennedd and Scottish Parliament elections?
In England, Reform Activists who are prevented from campaigning in their local elections by Stalin’s cancellation of democracy, should pledge to travel to the nearest Labour-held area and clobber them there.
Fans of proportional representation – with its inevitable consequence of eternal coalitions – should take note of the opinion poll percentages. Caveat: percentages do not directly relate to number of sets won in FPTP, but it gives an idea of a what would happen if it did because of proportional representation. So we would see a Labour, Lib Dem and Green ruling coalition Government with Cabinet seats apportioned out. The Prime Minister would be from they party with the most seats – probably Labour. Wouldn’t that be just great? Reform UK would form an opposition bloc with the Tories but it would not have a majority in Parliament so would just be a nuisance, and likely never gain a majority either severally or jointly with the Tories. Reform UK could indeed find itself banned because it is “Far Right” under a coalition Governmebt of the Left. Subsequent elections probably wouldn’t shift that Left-wing dominance, just shuffle round the Csbinet seats, and probably ensure a Labour Party PM for decades. These coalitions are always fractious with frequent disagreements resulting in constipated Government and minority policies being conceded to the minority Party and imposed on all to get the shit flowing again… Read more »