Labour Humiliation as Party Loses By-Election in Key Heartland With Just 11% of Vote

Labour has been humiliated in the Caerphilly Welsh by-election, losing its 100-year hold on a key heartland as its vote collapsed to just 11% while the Welsh nationalists romped home with 47.4% and Reform came second on 36%. The Telegraph has more.

In a disastrous result for Sir Keir Starmer, the party was beaten at a pivotal Senedd by-election by Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru.

It is the first time Labour has lost a parliamentary vote in the former mining town of Caerphilly in more than a century, signalling a collapse in support that will fray nerves in Downing Street.

It will also be seen as a disappointing result for Reform UK, who were polling slightly ahead and would have hailed a victory as a sign they were on track to unseat Labour at the Welsh elections next year.

Nigel Farage, the Reform leader, did not appear at the count, despite joining the campaign trail on the day.

The party is expected to blame tactical voting for the defeat. However, it will doubtless be buoyed by a clear surge in support having increased its vote share from 2% to 36% in just four years.

Plaid Cymru won with 15,961 votes [47.4%], up from the 8,211 it received in 2021. Reform came second with 12,113 votes [36%].

By contrast, the Labour vote collapsed from 35% to 11%, from 13,289 to 3,713.

The party had been expected to do poorly and sought to manage expectations long before the result was announced, saying it had been a “tough campaign”.

The result means Plaid now has 13 seats in the Welsh parliament, just one less than the Tories.

The turnout at the Caerphilly by-election was 50.4% – the highest level ever recorded for a Welsh by-election.

It is one of just five by-elections to have been held since the creation of the Senedd in 1999. …

Labour’s grip on devolved power is slipping. The by-election loss means it has officially dropped from 30 to 29 seats in the 60-seat Senedd, forcing the party to turn to other members to prop up its working majority.

It will further complicate the Welsh Government’s attempts to get its budget through Parliament, a high-stakes process that could lead to painful cuts if an agreement isn’t reached.

Labour has won every set of devolved elections in Wales for 26 years and currently holds the most seats in the Senedd, followed by the Tories and Plaid Cymru.

However, opinion polls have suggested that Reform is surging in the country while support for Labour is collapsing.

A YouGov survey last month put Mr Farage’s party out in front on 29% of the Westminster vote, up from 24% in April, followed by Plaid Cymru on 23% and Labour on 18%.

Reform and Plaid were virtually neck-and-neck when it came to support in the Senedd, with both on around 30%, while Labour trailed behind on 14%.

Only a quarter of those who voted for Labour at last year’s General Election said they would back the party at the next Senedd vote in May, suggesting the party could be in for a much bigger upset next year.

Worth reading in full.

The difference between Reform’s polling (neck and neck with Plaid Cyrmu in Senedd voting intention) and result (a distant second) may be explained by the low turnout (it was a record high for a Senedd by-election but was still only 50.4%) and a possible election-day surge in tactical voting not picked up by pollsters. Reform will be hoping that a higher turnout in a Westminster General Election will work out better for the party. However, the fact that tactical voting on the Left seems to have left the party trailing so heavily, despite keeping pace in the polls, will surely give Farage and his team something to contemplate.