Labour Will Regret Defending the Boriswave

Reform UK has made another major policy announcement, once again using a Monday morning press conference to capture the news agenda for the week. Nigel Farage’s party is to abolish Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), ending the right of migrants to qualify for permanent settlement in the UK after five years of residency. The policy aims in particular at preventing the millions of largely unskilled arrivals since 2021 from gaining permanent residency and eventually British citizenship – the infamous, disastrous influx known as the ‘Boriswave’. Under the scheme, migrants with permanent residency will need to reapply for visas under stricter criteria, including higher language and salary requirements. “It is not for us to provide welfare for people coming in from all over the world,” said Farage, in a robust political framing that rightly puts the interests of the British taxpayer first. Research by Karl Williams of the Centre for Policy Studies has shown that the lifetime cost of the recent influx could be some £234 billion (see the Sceptic Episode 36).

Headlines have been dominated by the practicalities of the policy, with the Labour Government coming out swinging against it. Chancellor Rachel Reeves derided it as “gimmicks” having “no basis in reality”. Leftie think tank Best for Britain said it would “tear families apart” as Labour mouthpieces denounce it as “extreme” and “vulgar”. A Labour backbencher even retweeted a columnist calling the policy “racist”, while Sadiq Khan fumed that “threatening to deport people living and working here legally is unacceptable”.

Given that the Boriswave was widely agreed to be a major mistake by the previous Government, whose immigration track record voters remain furious about, it seems deeply politically foolish for Labour to ride to its defence in this way. Not least given that action on ILR is (ostensibly) already set to become Government policy. Back in May, following Keir Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech, there came the unlikely but welcome announcement from Yvette Cooper’s Home Office that it would be going after the Boriswave, pledging to extend the required ILR qualification period from five years’ residency in the UK to 10. The then Home Secretary had “for some time been concerned” about the coming “significant increase in settlement and citizenship applications”, according to a Government source. I wrote for the Spectator noting that this was a victory for the young British Right in bringing this policy into the mainstream.

But this brief Labour foray into sanity on immigration was always going to be a hard sell to the Left of Starmer’s party. First, within weeks, the PM had U-turned to say that he “deeply regrets” the rhetoric of his anti-migration speech.

Now, the broader question is whether the Government will follow through on its pledged policy changes, too.

Naturally, rather than go ahead and legislate in the national interest, Labour’s first instinct was to pledge a consultation. But four months after the ILR reforms were announced, that consultation has so far not started. A Home Office spokesperson said it would arrive “later this year”.

“We believe that people should contribute to the economy and society before being able to settle in our country”, the spokesperson said. “This is why the amount of time migrants have to spend in the UK before qualifying for settlement will double from five to ten years.”

However, a recent debate on two petitions to Parliament about the ILR changes does give a sense of the mood in the Labour ranks. For those who would see the Boriswave reversed, it isn’t pretty. Rebecca Long-Bailey, the Corbynite and former leadership contender, said merely the publishing of the White Paper had caused “huge fear” among many of her Salford constituents. “At a time when far-Right groups are exploiting fear,” said Steve Witherden of Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, the Government should instead be “pushing back firmly” by creating “shorter, more affordable routes to settlement”. Several others cited “fairness”, “compassion” and “British values”, in what looks set to become a mawkish Leftie crusade for liberal sentimentality on immigration broadly – only lent greater fervour by Reform’s pressure to their Right.

That this is against both the country’s interest and ultimately that of the Labour party will likely mean little to these doe-eyed idealists: they will gladly go down with the ship to prevent any change to the current dispensation. The Labour Left has already managed to torpedo the Government’s much-needed welfare cuts (see the Sceptic episode 43), with Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves capitulating to backbenchers’ demands and suffering a major blow to their authority in the process. The result of that debacle has been steeply rising gilt yields, as the bond markets increasingly doubt Britain’s ability to reduce spending to sensible levels, portending grim prospects for the autumn Budget.

But to Leftie hardliners, immigration is arguably even more totemic than welfare. Plus Starmer has lost his bridge to the Left in the form of Angela Rayner, while the knives are already out for his Right-posturing aide, Morgan McSweeney, over the Mandelson affair. This means getting this policy over the line will likely prove a fight this unsteady Labour leadership will simply not have the stomach for. For new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, touted by allies as “hard as nails” and somehow believed to be capable of winning Labour voters’ trust on immigration, it will be as significant a test as stopping the boats. It seems highly unlikely she will pass.

With the first Boriswavers set to qualify for ILR early next year, that prospect is worrying indeed. Still, it will however be grist to Reform’s mill. As the next election inches closer, Farage will continue to have no trouble at all presenting the Tory-Labour uniparty as having totally failed the public when it comes to immigration.