Starmer Faces Disaster in Wales as Poll Shows Labour in Freefall Behind Reform and Set to Lose First Minister Post for First Time
Keir Starmer is facing a disaster in Wales as a poll shows Labour in freefall behind Reform and set to lose the First Minister post for the first time since devolution. The Mail has more.
A grim poll suggests Labour is in freefall ahead of crucial Senedd elections next May – trailing far behind Reform and Plaid Cymru.
The dire figures raise the prospect that Sir Keir’s party will lose the First Minister role in Wales, which it has dominated ever since devolution.
And they will fuel the mounting sense of mutiny within the party’s ranks, with MPs telling whips they want a new leader.
The YouGov/Barn Cymru research for ITV Wales found Plaid ahead on voting intention for the Senedd with 30% support.
But Nigel Farage’s Reform has been staging a surge, with backing up by four points since May to 29%.
Labour meanwhile has dropped another four points from what was an already an historic low, to just 14%.
The Tories have also been enduring a torrid time and were down two points to 11% support.
Under the Senedd’s overhauled party list electoral system that could mean Labour dropping from 29 assembly members paltry 11. That is despite the total number of AMs being increased from 60 to 96 in May.
Plaid Cymru would have 38 members only marginally ahead of Reform on 37 – although neither is enough for an overall majority.
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Plaid would just form a coalition with either labour or the greens, to create a great steaming pile of
manureleftism.Talk about out of the pan and into the fire.
Exactly.
Yet another case for PR rather than FPTP.
I disagree
They would form a coalition with Labour and the Greens with support also from the Tories.
If the election turns out to be just a little bit different I cvan foresee a deal between Reform and Plaid. The deal woukld be Reform only policies with Plaid confection.
Plaid Ryfform?
Not too hard to imagine a German type solution with a firewall and every coalition combination possible to avoid a reform senedd.
Whi h of course just makes matters SO much better (not).
even a three-way coalition wouldn’t be at 50% support.
I’m in Wales – everyone I speak to intends to vote Reform.
Were you speaking Welsh?
So, just keep on talking to people! 🙂
Yes, but there does seem to still be a lot of the hardened Labour supporters who won’t vote any other way.
Farage has pledged to keep devolution.
How many of other Blairite disasters will he keep?
I say all of them.
The Brexit sell out? He’s fine with that. He says “Brexit is done”.
Every week he makes another “major” announcement. Then it turns out to be a second rate Conservative from the 14 years of Tory Socialism.
Yes, this does worry me. I feel a lot of Reform voters may be doing so merely because they’re not the Uniparty, but on many issues they seem to be largely indistinguishable. Whether this is a softly softly approach to adopt a more centrist platform in order to attract voters or something else, time will tell.
Still the best option as far as I can see – there is not a cat in hell’s chance anyone else will be getting my vote.
Devolution was a plan by Blair to keep Labour governing at least parts of the UK – Scotland & Wales where Labour got most of its votes – even if it didn’t given nationally.
The same for Reform UK, if they win, it will put them in the position of governing part of the UK.
Farage has never expressed satisfaction with Brexit – quite the opposite.
Perhaps he knows that he’s going to lose, so he can say what he likes. No risk of trying to do any of it then.
You clearly do not have a realistic idea of politics. Whatever past mistakes have been made it is not practical or sensible to try ti unwind then all.
This is one of the problems with an intruder in the Uniparty political space. A number of people demand their own betes noir be fixed but thereby lose the election which might otherwise bring relative improvement.
Absolutely.
I don’t trust Farage one bit.
Farage needs an expert team to prepare the ground, with a detailed manifesto and draft legislation, to ensure the obstructive civil service and blocking House of Lords don’t delay the repeal of Blair’s legislation, that mostly outsourced the decision making that renders the previous and current government helpless.
Nothing wrong with devolution but the devolved govts can get no financing from the centre.
“A grim poll suggests Labour is in freefall….”
Grim? Grim? Huge delight!
So perhaps the Tories will stop splitting the vote? Not a chance!
Reform needs to get its education policy sorted, to sort out the mess left by Labour, Wales did not get the Gove revolution, in particular they don’t use phonics for reading. Even ITV produced a documentary about the lack of phonics in Wales.
Plaid will be able to do for Wales what the Scots Nats have done for Scotland. Let the English vote for independence.