How the West Snookered Itself in Energy Geopolitics
The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, China, offered vivid optics of a shifting global order. Images of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping sharing smiles and warm embraces spoke volumes about a realignment that few could have predicted at the start of 2025. Against the backdrop of a “binding memorandum” for the Power of Siberia 2 (POS-2) pipeline supplying Russian natural gas to China, this summit was no mere public relations exercise.
The summit marks a profound shift in global energy geopolitics, one that underscores Europe’s slide into irrelevance, the competitive headwinds facing US LNG exports and the spectacular failure of former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski’s vision of US strategic supremacy over Russia largely constructed during the tumultuous 1990s. The United States, in its pursuit of Eurasian hegemony, has alienated a critical ally in India, pushed Russia and China closer together, and left Germany — once an industrial powerhouse — prostrate. This is a tale of hubris, miscalculation and unintended consequences.
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“The most dangerous scenario [for America] would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘antihegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complimentary grievances.”
Zbigniew Brzezinski in The Grand Chessboard (1997).
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Russia-Turkiye-Iran-Change-Global-Geopolitical-Dynamics-20220720-0007.html
Most countries outside of Nato who are opposed to US hegemony and a US Unipolar world will bring forward a Multipolar world where every country is equal and will strengthen their ties with Russia, China and the rest of the BRICS+ and SCO+ countries for more peaceful times without US exploitation, interference and manufactured wars.
Well done the USA and their vassals particularly in Europe for their economic self-destruction by starting the Ukraine conflict and the beginning of the end of the dollar and euro and their own US and vassal states hegemony.
A self-inflicted decline by Europe mainly due to cutting themselves off from cheap Russian fossil fuels.
Add to that ‘shutting down nuclear plants and failing to exploit the North Sea’.
When did our hopeless politicial imposters start believing virtue signalling was the only thing that matters?
Absolutely right. Russia, China, India etc must be absolutely pissing themselves laughing at our self-destruction whilst they improve their lot with cheap and plentiful energy.
bUt We’RE saViNG tHe pLAneT…
For the Chinese.
So China and India get cheap oil and gas while Europe gets expensive US and ME gas which produces more CO2 in the process. Germany produces fewer cars and chemicals while China sells more to Europe. And in the UK, the remaining car and chemicals industry shrinks and transfers to India. Aren’t Greens brilliant
‘Cutting your nose off, to spite your face‘ seems to cover the behaviour to me…
‘Russia’s diplomatic relations with India were established in 1947. But the first attempt was undertaken by Russia 301 years prior to that – in 1646…..In 1695, the fourth mission headed by Semyon Malenkiy was send via Persia……. Aurangzeb granted Russia permission to trade and gifted the envoy a baby elephant. ‘China and Russia interacted continuously since the late 17th century, though the nature of this interaction changed dramatically over time. Whereas early encounters between Russian settlers and the Qing Empire were of more or less equal character (if anything, the Manchus held the upper hand) In 1949, Mao decided to “clean out the house before inviting guests,” i.e. to effectively cut off China’s relationship with the West and “lean to one side” towards the Soviet Union.’ China and Russia are corrupt totalitarian states with serious and systemic economic problems. Corruption in India stifles growth while the BJP attempts to stifle democracy. Russia’s ‘advances’ in Ukraine are derisory, Russia still occupying less of Ukraine than it did immediately after the 2022 invasion. The eu is also a complete shambles. The U.S. is wallowing in debt, as is Britain. A better title for this article might be: ‘Isn’t everything awful’ Lord Carrington,… Read more »
https://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/9709brzezinski.html
‘A power that dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world’s three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia.’
Brzezinski had a point.
To what extent are these changes that were coming down the line anyway, even if they have perhaps been accelerated by western policies? It sounds like levels of debt would growing substantially (unsustainably?) even if the effects of energy policy are ignored.
Russia is resilient only, now, as a client state of China, on the same level as North Korea and approaching similar levels of paranoia, repression, state sponsored murder, terrorism.
China is riven with corruption, political faction fighting, a demographic time bomb (as in Russia) and a future of economic decline.
India is at daggers drawn with China (and another client state of China, Pakistan) on a regular basis.
It is the West’s own stupidity (cumbersome and draconian international trade regulations), incompetence in foreign policy (Serbia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) that is its greatest threat.
Democracy: the least worst system of government.
‘Global oil prices. We expect the Brent crude oil price will decline significantly in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel (b) in August to $59/b on average in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) and around $50/b in early 2026. The price forecast is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production.
We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day (b/d) from 3Q25 through 1Q26. We expect low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026.
We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $51/b next year. We finalized this outlook before OPEC+ announced on September 7 that it plans to raise production by 137,000 b/d in October 2025.’
https://www.eia.gov/about/new/
Bad news for Russia….
And a lot more LNG coming onstream 2026.
‘In 2026, LNG supply is set to rise by 7%, or 40 bcm – its largest increase since 2019 – as new projects come online in the United States, Canada and Qatar’
Good news for the West…..
“The (Indian) Minister pointed out that China imports significantly more Russian oil and Europe remains the largest buyer of Russian gas, yet India alone faces such draconian tariffs.” One has to laugh at the endless own goals by the United States and its UK/European poodles in their deluded campaign to “inflict a strategic defeat on Russia”. I recall the exasperation on Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s face coming out of the meeting in January 2022 with Liz Truss to a VERY short press conference. Truss was all cocky and vocal, and when it was Lavrov’s turn, he refused to comment and left. This was Russia’s final futile attempt to avoid the war the West had long lusted and planned for with it’s sustained campaign of provocation in Ukraine, starting with the NATO expansion policy & the overthrow of President Yanukovich, whose policy of Ukrainian NEUTRALITY just didn’t go down well with us. And so Russia, as Lavrov has said, finally came to “boiling point” and crossed the border, to the glee of the likes of Truss and all the other NATO cheerleaders. They already had the “sanctions from hell” mapped out & slapped them on immediately, “TO DESTROY RUSSIA’S ECONOMY” was… Read more »
Trump wants the EU to punish India and China for buying Russian gas – they would need to punish themselves first
By now, we get it: Some white boy presumably pissed in Dr Doshi’s cornflakes 40 years ago or something like that which has left him with a manical hatred of everything European which is why he keeps writing the same article over and over again and always ‘magically’ forgets about the party governing half of the USA all these insane policies either originated from or which is very much in favour of it.
NB: I didn’t read this repeat write-up. Life is too short to keep being abused and insulted by people with an enormous chip on their shoulder.
This article states that Russia is in the top five best world economies whereas it is eleventh on the international list ???
Why doesn’t Europe just use US LNG?
Trump warned Germany at the UN nearly a decade ago not to rely on Russian gas and they mocked him. Their situation now is not all Trump’s fault.
Modi didn’t do so well in the last election so I wonder what the main opposition party’s view of the US is?
Russia is 5th largest in global GDP share measured in PPP terms. It is 11th in nominal GDP.
Thanks for that info. I must look into the difference.
Climate Change, the most expensive false alarm in history, has led to Net Zero, a policy of closing down essential industries. It leaves European countries far too weak to confront Russia.
India is understandably indifferent to what happens in Ukraine, and attempts to force it into joining the great coalition against Putin have done more harm than good.