Ukraine Must Lose The War, Then Win The Peace

History, we are told, is written by the victors. Yet in Ukraine, the story may end up being written by those clever enough to redefine what ‘victory’ looks like.

Two tribes have been shouting across Western commentary trenches since 2022. On one side sit the realists, like John Mearsheimer, shrugging that Russia was provoked and that Ukraine must accept the grim realpolitik of geography. On the other side perch the idealists, like Matthew Syed, wagging fingers that anything short of total victory is appeasement.

Mearsheimer has turned realism into a sort of intellectual alibi for Russian aggression. His argument, that NATO “provoked” Moscow into butchery is less analysis than apologetics dressed up in tweed. To say Ukraine invited invasion by aspiring to sovereignty is like claiming a burglary victim provoked the thief by buying a nicer car. It ignores the obvious: Putin did not fear NATO tanks; he feared Ukrainians voting, building and prospering outside his kleptocratic shadow. Mearsheimer’s lecture-hall fatalism flatters Russian paranoia and reduces Ukrainians to mere pawns on someone else’s chessboard. Realism, in his hands, is just a polite way of telling small nations to shut up and accept their place under the boots of bullies.

Syed, to his credit, skewers the lily-livered hypocrisy of Britain and Europe with precision. He is right that the West has failed Ukraine. Not just with dithering arms deliveries, but with the cowardly evasions of language and the pretence of moral backbone, all the while hiding under America’s skirt. Yet his remedy – more righteous clarity and a refusal to appease – ignores the hard truth. This war is already unwinnable so long as Europe clings to timidity and America rightly refuses to do Europe’s hard yards. A continent that can’t even police its own sanctions is hardly going to summon the will for total victory. Moral clarity without material courage is just theatre, and Europe’s current act is closer to farce than strategy.

Both Mearsheimer and Syed make some valid points. Yet both are wrong for they miss the only outcome that offers Ukraine and the West a future worth banking on. Lose the war. Win the Peace.

Let’s be blunt. Defeating Russia outright is fantasy. Ukraine has fought valiantly, but Western support is flagging. European unity is a mirage. Germany still buys Russian gas under the table; since the war began, Europe has sent over $250  billion to Moscow for oil and gas. That’s not strategy. It’s self‑harm and hypocrisy masquerading as policy.

Even NATO only began digging into defence budgets once Trump, uncouth and ill‑mannered but in this case both ethically and pragmatically correct, bullied Europe into paying its dues. The alliance has been shamed into adulthood by the political equivalent of a Casino Don.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s spirit is fraying. A Gallup poll in July 2025 found that just 24% still support fighting until victory, while 69% now favour a negotiated peace. That marks a near‑complete reversal from 2022, when 73% backed victory and just 22% desired talks. Zelensky’s approval, once north of 80%, now hovers around the mid‑60s. Not desperate, but no longer heroic.

So yes, Ukraine may have to cede Donbas and Crimea.

In Donbas, even before the invasion, separatism was patchy. Around one‑third favoured splitting, most preferred autonomy over empire. In Crimea, pre‑2014 polling showed just 23% supported joining Russia; the later referendum’s 80‑plus percent was heavily manipulated. The reality: Russian identity there has roots but they were never unanimous.

So let the people choose. Ukrainians who object to Russian rule get relocation support, respect and an exit with dignity. Not cannon fodder in a never‑ending war.

Tsun Tsu wrote that you should make sure you can’t lose before you try to win. Ukraine and its ‘allies’ need to accept that losing land doesn’t mean losing the future. Ukraine can win the peace by becoming the neon sign of democracy Russia fears most.

Imagine a Marshall Plan 2.0, funded by frozen Russian assets, redirected European subsidies and reform‑tied loans. Instead of smouldering weaponry, NATO should funnel that money into digital infrastructure, schools, start-ups.

Enter Estonia on steroids. Estonia’s GDP per capita leapt from $3,435 in 1991 to about $32,460 by 2023. Today, GDP per capita is around $31,855. Its economy is high‑income, advanced and resilient. Its ICT sector contributes over 7% of GDP, attracting €1.3 billion in tech investments in 2022. In digital public services, Estonia leads the EU. 89% of citizens use e‑government. Over half the electorate now votes online and it all works so smoothly it makes our elections look like they’re run by blokes with clipboards and carrier pigeons

Ukraine, brimming with tech‑savvy youth, fertile fields and room to grow, could scale this model 10-fold. Build a liberal, high‑growth democracy whose skyscrapers, start-ups and liberties shine across the border shouting ‘This is what you could have had, had you not been stuck with kleptocracy and fear’.

That’s the existential threat Putin fears. What keeps him awake isn’t NATO armour. It’s an Estonia where work, healthcare, banking and elections run on apps while Russia still runs on bribes and babushkas.

This path to victory requires Europe to grow a backbone. Not militarily – NATO’s early‑war moment is gone – but economically. Don’t moonlight oligarch money through London. Stop selling Mayfair mansions and English football clubs to Russian billionaires. Sanctions aren’t fashion. They must be enforced. No visas. No bolt‑holes. No secret funds in Zurich. Seal the exits and let the oligarchs discover how stuffy a yacht feels when it never leaves dry dock.

Europe has demanded moral clarity abroad while camped in cowardice at home. Ukraine can be its redemption: proof that Western liberalism is a model worth funding.

This middle path takes realism’s limitations and idealism’s convictions and crystallises them.

Let borders shift if they must. But build destinies that no map can erase.

Here’s the kicker. The inevitable irony. In 10 years, Russians across the border might gaze at a buzzing, free Ukraine and ask: ‘Why can’t we have that?’

Empires don’t crumble when conquered. They rot when neighbours flourish. Let Russia keep the land. It will be its poisoned chalice. Give Ukraine a future so it can reshape history on its own terms. Because sometimes the greatest victory is to lose the war, then win the peace.

Clive Pinder is a columnist for the SLO Tribune. You will find him giving voice to the politically homeless and making the professionally outraged professionally nervous on Substack.