Is the US Losing the World to China?
Which is the world’s leading nation: China or the US? China has a much bigger population. The American economy is larger when measured in terms of nominal GDP, though China’s is larger when measured at purchasing power parity. And while American military power still exceeds that of China, the gap is closing rapidly – particularly as the US depletes its stockpiles of critical weapon systems in Ukraine and the Middle East.
National statistics can only tell us so much, however. Another way to assess which country wins out is by appraising public opinion. Do people around the world see China or the US in a more positive light? Until recently, the answer would have been obvious: the US. China was still an emerging economic power with an opaque and authoritarian political system. Meanwhile, the US was enjoying its ‘unipolar moment’ as the ‘indispensable nation’.
This is no longer the case. In 2022, a major study by researchers at Cambridge University found that China was perceived more positively than the US among people in developing countries. On the other hand, the US was still perceived more positively among people in developed countries, and because the gap there was so large, the US was perceived more positively overall.
However, there are two caveats to this conclusion. The first is that the data only went up to 2022 – and quite a lot has changed since then. The second is that the data were harmonised (i.e., combined) from about a dozen different datasets, which may have led to bias in the estimates for China, the US or both.
Two major cross-national surveys published this year show that China is now perceived more positively than the US – by a sizeable margin.
The first is the annual Democracy Perception Index, carried out for the Alliance of Democracies, a pro-Western thinktank. Based on data for 111,273 people from 100 countries, it found that perceptions of the US have been getting less favourable since 2023, while perceptions of China have been getting more favourable. As of 2025, the US is one of the world’s least popular countries, just ahead of Russia.
The second is the Spring Global Attitudes Survey, carried out by Pew Research. Based on data from 24 countries of varying income levels, it found the very same thing: the US has been getting less popular since 2023, while China has been getting more popular. Among ten high-income countries that are all US allies, China is now perceived about as favourably as the US. (It must therefore be perceived much more favourably in the world as a whole.)
There are likely two key reasons for this divergence: the first and more important one is Trump; the second is US support for Israel. We know that Trump matters because most of the decline in positive perceptions of the US came between 2024 and 2025 (when foreigners’ confidence in the US President fell dramatically).
But US support for Israel also matters. In the Democracy Perception Index, Israel was the second least popular country in the entire world (with Iran being the least popular). And perceptions of the US are particularly unfavourable among Muslims: even in places like Egypt and Jordan that receive billions in US foreign aid, China is vastly more popular.
There is a popular meme about Chinese President Xi Jinping, which depicts him with a hyper-masculinised face alongside the caption: “Do nothing. Win.” The meme reflects China’s foreign policy of non-interventionism – at least when compared to Russia and the US. Going by the latest public opinion data, it appears to be right on the money.
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I’m torn on this one. On the one hand, I would much rather live in the US than in China – it seems to me that quality of life and the day they treat their own citizens in the US is fair superior (though I am an Anglo so biased, maybe China is great if you’re Chinese). I think communism is evil. But it’s not at all clear to me that the way the US behaves towards other countries is in any way better than the way the Chinese behave – in fact it seems quite a lot worse.
Anyway, I am more worried about my own country (England, UK) which is sliding into death.
While lots of people still wish to get into USA I doubt many wish to get into China. Always reminded of poster at US base in Philippines saying “Yanks Go Home” under which someone had written “And Take Me With You”
The US ticks a lot of boxes for me, I might have taken the plunge had I not kids in the UK and no realistic prospect of getting a green card.
If Trump did what he said he would do vis a vis no more foreign wars the standing of the US would improve. But less than three months into his presidency he starts dropping bombs on Iran to keep the Chosen People lobby happy in the US.
Yes that has been a disappointment
I think familiarity breeds contempt here. For example, people who wouldn’t buy a Tesla because of the political views Elon Musk, but would buy a vehicle made in China instead. What do they know of the Chinese CEO and his opinions? And China’s policy of non-intervention doesn’t mean not intervening in international affairs, just doing so in a different way.
You make some good points. I don’t remember the Chinese bombing people or trying to effect regime change – though perhaps they would if they thought they could get away with it.
Come on tof… they’re happy to enslave people and arrange to have them bombeb at arms length.
But the USA has been awful in this too.
But a us led world over a China led world – every time.
Who have the Chinese arranged to have bombed?
I am not too keen on a “China led world” but it’s not clear to me that a “US led world” has been all that beneficial, especially since the defeat of the Warsaw Pact.
China has generally taken a very long term commercial approach through things like their belt and roads (I think that’s what it’s called) initiative – short term money for the host, long term debt to China and increased Chinese influence. Like it or not, their long term strategic planning is impressive. It’s basically meant they don’t really need to bomb anyone outside of China, they ‘own’ parts of them instead. Of course much sabre rattling in the south China seas, but that’s been ongoing forever I believe
Indeed. I am sure their motives are as selfish as everyone else’s but the approach seems less destructive
Most countries outside of Nato who are opposed to US hegemony and a US Unipolar world will bring forward a Multipolar world where every country is equal and will strengthen their ties with Russia, China and the rest of the BRICS+ and SCO countries for more peaceful times without US exploitation, interference and manufactured wars.
Well done the USA and their vassals for the beginning of the end of the dollar and their own US and vassal states hegemony.
I wonder what it was that first attracted politicians of developing countries to multi dillion dollar Chinese hand outs?
‘China has long been accused of deliberately neglecting to enforce its anti-foreign corruption laws. When competing with democracies where bribing foreign public officials is vigorously prosecuted, it enjoys advantages from this negligence, especially in some of the BRI countries where corruption is ubiquitous’
No.
Why always China and never India despite both are nuclear powers and huge countries with huge populations?
Noah writes, “… We know that Trump matters because most of the decline in positive perceptions of the US came between 2024 and 2025 (when foreigners’ confidence in the US president fell dramatically).”
Question everything!
Was Joe Biden a great President because he spaffed billions of US tax payers’ dollars at home and across the globe (and – fact – to his supporters) via the USAID Quango? Which disbursements would be heartily approved of by every recipient, no doubt. And, how would they respond to PDJT abruptly curtailing the spaffing – and USAID?
And, is PDJT really the ‘monster,’ as portrayed by the almost universally disapproving media? For instance, headlines such as, ‘OMG, how could he? He’s removing funding for scientific research, etc.”
Like, Woke Science and the White House, which you can read by right clicking and choosing to, Visit URL, where you will find Dr Robert Malone’s substack article. Or, linked here: https://www.malone.news/p/woke-science-and-the-white-house?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=583200&post_id=169116266&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=4c2zwi&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
I wonder then, how much the repondents to the questionnaires from which Noah’s analysis derives have anything more than a critical media headline knowlege of PDJT’s motives and actions? I’m guessing, somewhere between very little and none.
Off you go to China then – good luck !