White Britons Are Right to Resist Becoming a Minority

Demographic change is becoming an increasingly talked about issue on the British Right as the prospect of white Britons becoming a minority within 40 years looms as an ever greater certainty. GB News’s Steven Edginton, for instance, has repeatedly asked prominent Right-wing politicians, including Richard Tice, Nigel Farage and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, whether they are concerned with the decline of the white British population. The journalist put to them the statistics that in England and Wales the white British share of the population has plummeted from 87.5% at the time of the 2001 census to just 74% of the population at the time of the most recent 2021 census – a trend that has doubtless accelerated since, following the ‘Boriswave’.

All these politicians gave unsatisfactory answers to Steven’s question: hand-waving the issue away, vaguely pointing to ‘integration’ as a solution, or in the case of Richard Tice, simply remarking that he’d be “long gone” by the time it happens.

These are woefully unserious responses to what is going to become one of the most fundamental questions in the years and decades ahead. White Britons are the native population of this country – where anyone with ancestors born here prior to 1950 can almost certainly trace their ancestry back centuries. Would it be right for this group to become an ethnic minority in their own homeland, despite consistently voting against mass migration in every election and referendum they’ve been offered?

There’s no room for nuance here – either you view this as an acceptable outcome, or you don’t. I would say unequivocally ‘No’ – we should not accept becoming an ethnic minority in our own country. Whatever the Left says, such a view is not ‘racist’ or ‘extremist’. No sane people would or should accept it: would we expect the Chinese, Indians or the Japanese to accept becoming minorities in their respective countries?

Time is of the essence though. While projections vary on exactly when white Britons will become a minority, they coalesce around the 2050-2060 mark. David Coleman, an Emeritus Professor of Demography at Oxford University, has 2053 as the crossover point. In the view of this leading demographer: “If this pace of cultural and ethnic change continues then the consequences are going to be very, very negative.”

Others, like a recent study by Professor Matt Goodwin in partnership with the Centre of Heterodox Social Science, forecast that the crossover point will be 2063. “The foreign-born and their immediate descendants will become a majority by 2079,” he adds. “And by the end of this century, roughly one in five people will follow the Islamic faith, up from roughly one in 14 today.”

Depending on which forecast you choose, this is currently set to occur 28-38 years in the future. Plenty of time, right? Not really. In demographic terms, this is no time at all.

The problem seems even starker when you consider the ethnicity of births, which few ever seem to do. According to the most recent statistics, in 2024 just 53.65% of births in England and Wales were white British, down from 62.89% in 2014, an astonishing 9.24 percentage point drop in a decade.

If you look at provisional data for births in England for the first quarter of 2025, which cover January 1st-March 31st, the situation is even worse, with just 52.56% of births in England being white British.

These demographic trends raise the question: what exactly are future generations going to ‘integrate’ or ‘assimilate’ into, when the native ethnic group of the country is only barely a majority of births, and on current trends, could fall below the 50% mark before 2030?

This is what needs to be kept in mind when studies and projections talk about white Britons becoming a minority some decades in the future. They are talking about the population overall, which includes a lot of older people, who, having passed child-rearing age, will not change the demographic future of the country. The median white British person was 45 years old when the 2021 census took place.

On current trends, white Britons will become a minority amongst younger cohorts much sooner than mid-century, and this is the group that matters – it is the demographic future of the country.

This is why increasing numbers of young white people are concerned about demographic change: they are the ones who will live to see themselves become a minority in their own country. Baby Boomers like Richard Tice will be dead by then.

Such rapid demographic change is of course a result of the sky-high levels of immigration we have experienced, particularly since 1997 and the arrival of New Labour. In Tony Blair’s first year as Prime Minister, net migration into the UK increased nearly threefold, from 48,000 per year to 140,000 per year.

Still, the blame does not lie entirely with Tony Blair and Labour. Labour increased immigration significantly. But the Conservatives, despite pledging to reduce net migration into the “tens of thousands” in their 2010, 2015 and 2017 manifestos, never did so, and indeed allowed it to increase, to a peak of 321,000 in 2016.

In 2019, the Conservative Party won an 80-seat majority on a pledge to “Get Brexit Done” and bring overall numbers down. After we left the EU, the UK regained full control over immigration policy. Yet in 2020-2021, Boris Johnson and home secretary Priti Patel decided to significantly loosen visa rules, including language and income requirements, resulting in a massive surge in immigration to levels never before seen. This betrayal is now commonly derided as the ‘Boriswave‘.

Do not be surprised if these immigration figures are later revised upwards, especially given the recent revelation that the UK Government has secretly been importing tens of thousands of Afghan nationals into the UK, which the media were barred from talking about and which were hidden from official immigration figures. In an astonishing illustration of the sheer numbers of arrivals this could portend, one Afghan national was able to bring 22 ‘relatives’ to the UK under this scheme. This influx is also deeply worrying since we know that, according to data obtained via a Freedom of Information request by the Centre for Migration Control, Afghan nationals are around 22 times more likely to commit sexual assault than native British people.

The level of immigration we’ve experienced since 1997, under both Labour and Conservative governments, has meant that in 2024, just shy of 34% of births in England and Wales were to a foreign-born mother. This is an astonishing rate of demographic churn. The figure stood at 15.5% at the turn of the millennium, while just 11.7% of births were to foreign-born mothers in 1969, when data were first collected.

Births to babies with UK-born mothers and fathers hit a record low in 2024, comprising just 57% of births, down from 73% of births in 1999 and down from 62% of births in 2021. A five percentage point drop in just three years is truly incredible, demonstrating the effect of the Boriswave.

Another way of observing the change is the massive recent decline in white British births as a percentage of all births in England & Wales, depicted below from 2007 to 2024.

Barring some type of mass emigration of immigrants, or a substantial increase in the birth rate amongst white Britons, these demographics are going to become baked in. Far from being some ‘far-Right conspiracy’, on current trends, white Britons becoming a minority is a demographic certainty. Yet no politician from any mainstream party is willing to state whether this is an acceptable outcome; they just bury their heads in the sand.

They shouldn’t, because in fact there is much that could be done to avert such a future. If policymakers want to avoid this outcome, in the short term we need to see a substantial reduction in levels of immigration into the UK, if not net emigration, whereby more people leave the country than enter, as was the case throughout much of the 1960s-1980s. In the medium to long term, we need to see pro-natal policies implemented to increase the birth-rate for UK-born mothers and fathers, which will overwhelmingly tilt towards white Britons. But before our political class can get to grips with this problem, first it will have to recognise that it is one in the first place.

Charlie Cole is just a regular guy who has spent way too much time trawling through ONS bulletins. Find him on X.