Israel and Iran Are Now at War
The long shadow war between Iran and Israel broke into the open this morning with the launch of Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and high command. It’s a war that is only just beginning, says Jonathan Spyer in the Spectator. Here’s an excerpt.
With the launch of Operation ‘Rising Lion’ against Iranian nuclear and military facilities overnight, Israel appears to have sought to take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity. Through its own actions over the last 18 months, the Iranian regime brought itself to a moment of extreme vulnerability. Tehran found itself in an uncomfortable position in which it continued to seek to prosecute its long war against Israel – intended to result in the Jewish state’s demise – while at the same time finding itself shorn of many of the capacities for aggression and defence on which it had relied. Israel has just struck through this narrow window. Iranian retaliation appears certain. As such, the two countries are now in a state of open war.
The weakening of Iran in recent months has occurred on two directly related fronts. Firstly, Tehran has long relied on a system of proxies to conduct aggression against enemies and to deter said enemies from responding. The attack by the Tehran-aligned Hamas organisation against Israel on October 7th 2023 led to a partial and piecemeal mobilisation by Iranian proxies to assist Hamas as it faced Israel’s determined counter-attack in Gaza.
The result of this partial counter-mobilisation – by Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Ansar Allah (Houthis) and the Iraqi Shia militias – was not, however, the one that Tehran had hoped for. Far from, as intended, forcing Israel to abandon its effort to destroy Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s mobilisation of proxies has resulted in the severe weakening of the proxies themselves.
In retrospect, it is clear that Iran had made one of the cardinal errors of irregular warfare – namely, never allow yourself to be drawn into open battle against a conventionally superior adversary. By attempting to strike at Israel at a time when Jerusalem was already engaged in war, Iran’s proxies brought down the full weight of Israel’s advanced capacities for air and intelligence warfare on their own heads.
The result? Lebanese Hezbollah, Tehran’s main tool for power projection and deterrence, is today a shadow of its former self. Its historic leadership has been destroyed, its mid-level cadres decimated, its military array along the border obliterated, and its advanced weapons systems severely depleted.
The Iraqi Shia militias, too, unilaterally pulled out of the fight in late 2024. …
The precise dimensions of the damage Israel has inflicted on Iran’s nuclear capacities and its senior military command have not yet become apparent. They are likely to be considerable but far short of a knockout blow. Iranian retaliation appears to be already under way. That won’t be a conclusive move either. Which means, in short, that the long overture in the conflict between Israel and Iran is completed. The main part is now beginning.
Worth reading in full.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has said that Israel struck Iran after a 60-day deadline expired to make a deal over its nuclear programme. From the Telegraph:
“Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to “make a deal”. They should have done it!” the US President said on Truth Social.
He went on: “I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”
It comes after Mr Trump told ABC News that Israel’s attack was “excellent” and warned there was more to come.
“I think it’s been excellent. We gave them a chance and they didn’t take it. They got hit hard, very hard. They got hit about as hard as you’re going to get hit. And there’s more to come. A lot more,” he said.
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I think in my garage roof I have a hornets nest, I have no intention of kicking it!
…then they’ll be around to sting you ten years hence. Smoke them out I say.
I would agree if the hornet’s nest was in a garage on the other side of the planet.
Well, looking at it from my admittedly narrow angle and admitting that I don’t have any understanding of the Muslim mindset but, assuming you accept the Old Testament, attacking Israel seems to me like an extremely stupid idea.
They are God’s chosen people.
You can do whatever you like, if you attack them, ultimately you will lose.
History has proven this, time and time again.
No, they are NOT “God’s chosen people”, and nowhere in the Bible does it say that they are.
Jesus said in Matthew 21:43 (Tyndale):
“Therefore say I unto you, the Kingdom of God shall be taken from you, and shall be given to THE GENTILES, which shall bring forth the fruits of it.”
The King James Version Committee later changed “Gentiles” to “a nation”, and all other versions copied that mistake or used “people” instead.
In another example of deliberate alteration of Tyndale’s original,
—John the Baptist said “I baptise you IN WATER, IN TOKEN OF REPENTANCE”.
KJV & others changed this to “I baptise you WITH water UNTO repentance”, in order to support sprinkling & pouring water as a false substitute for baptism by full immersion, and to imply that baptism replaces repentance for sin.
Ha ha ha, why do you think Tyndale is the original! But if you are going with Tyndale then Romans ch11v28&29 are unequivocal, the Jews are still loved by God on account of the fathers or patriarchs. They are still the chosen people, God does not change his mind, as it says his choice is irrevocable. But his choice of them is so as to be a blessing for the rest of the world. I e from them comes the Christ and a cultural context to make sense of what he is doing. Interestingly Romans ch11 is what makes Israel watching important. The prophecy is that at some point all Israel will be saved. I take that to mean it will publicly become Hebrew Christian. This might happen gradually or through some damascene event…. some kind of major defeat?…or maybe utter moral exhaustion from trying never to allow themselves to be vulnerable to a genocide again. Currently they are fighting nations who continue with a stated and active policy of intended destruction of Israel, from the river to the sea.
Romans is just Paul’s own personal view of things, which he kept trying to impose upon Christianity, drawing on his Jewish beliefs from the Old Testament. He claimed to be an Apostle, but he never met Jesus on Earth, and the Apostles didn’t actually like him. Christianity begins with the New Testament, and Jesus (correctly pronounced “E-zus”, for there was no “J” in ancient Hebrew/Aramaic) said the Kingdom of God will be given to THE GENTILES. Israel as a nation will not be “saved”. The Wailing Wall will be destroyed, as will the Black Cube of Mecca. Individual Jewish people will only be saved IF THEY REPENT THEIR SINS & SIN NO MORE, casting off the utter depravity of the Talmud, and thank E-ah-weh for sending His Twin Archangel Sons, E-zus the Forerunner & E-on Christ the Baptist, into the world at Ein Karem, where they were born to their mother E-lizabeth 2000 years ago, to redeem good souls and repentant sinners from Satan & the other evil beings in the spirit world, who lay false claim upon good souls, in order to stop anyone from being redeemed. The Jews were and are right to say that E-zus was not… Read more »
So Tyndale is not so good after all, for including Romans, Paul’s own personal view of things. But was the rest of your post your own personal imposition on Christianity, or does it stem from some grounded historical position. I have never heard it before . What is it, Gnosticism? Saying that Christianity starts with the new testament is actually bonkers, it like saying a football match only really started after halftime. Anyway I understand your moniker now at least.
Another example:
— Matthew 5:28 (Tyndale) Jesus said, “But I say unto you, That whosoever looketh on a WIFE, lusting after her, hath committed advoutry with her already in his heart.”
The King James Version Committee changed “wife” to “WOMAN”, and all other versions copied that appalling mistake.
And another example:
—Mark 11:26 is a King James Version Committee FORGERY, and is NOT PRESENT in Tyndale’s original at all.
“But if ye do not forgive, neither will your Father which is in heaven forgive your trespasses.” This is a FORGERY by a member of the King James Version Committee.
Well, I think they are God’s chosen people. And I’m not Jewish.
You are free to think whatever you like.
Yes, you can think whatever you like about this. Just don’t claim your view is in the Bible, because it isn’t, and it’s not what E-zus said.
They are clearly the devil’s chosen people, waging war with every neighbouring country at every opportunity, while carrying out a genocide against their indigenous population at the same time. The only country in the area with nuclear weapons, always used as a threat to any opponents. When will they use them, is the question. And when will narcissist Trump, bought and paid for by the Israel lobby, join in against Iran, who has never threatened anyone, in contradiction to articles such as this, enslaved to Israeli doctrine?
Have a look at Jewish convert to Christianity Brother Nathanael’s astonishing video. He’s on the List of Heroic Jews, for telling the truth about the beliefs of Judaism:
“Satan at the Wailing Wall”
Satan At The Wailing Wall/ NOT ONE STONE LEFT UPON ANOTHER – YouTube
Brother Nathanael:Satan At The Wailing Wall
This is the first genocide in history where the targeted population has grown in size instead of shrinking.
True. That was noted after WW2, that while the White population was severely decimated after WW2, the Jewish population actually increased.
Annually in Iran there are mass events addressed by regime big shots dedicated to the message: Death to America, Death to Israel. Those sound like threats to me…
Iran has been actively hostile to the very existence of Israel since 1979, when the Mullahs came to power. Since then, they have attacked Israel through proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, etc.), pending getting nuclear weapons. So this is not a new war, but a continuation of the one launched in 1979 by the Mullahs’ Iran. Prior to that the relations between the two countries were friendly and cooperative.
All the problems in the Middle East originate from Israel. Every war, from Libya to Irak has been the idea of Israel, driven by its megalomaniacal thirst for complete dominance in the area. Every US President has been a slave to Israel’s financial clout, and completely subservient to Israel’s every wish. Now it is Iran’s turn to suffer, to be subjugated. The Iranian government has done everything to avoid war but Israel’s war machine is ever thirsty for more and new conflicts, and Netanyahu needs ever more diversions from his ongoing genocide and his looming court cases for corruption.
Utter nonsense.
Well, that is up to them. It is NOT OUR WAR, and British Taxpayers MUST NOT be forced to fund any more sabre-rattling by Starmer to distract attention from his own failed domestic policies.
The Globalists are desperate to start WW3 for their planned “CULL” under the 2030 Depopulation Agenda.
Let’s tell them what they can do with that.
I agree.
This is the politically cleaned version. According to German news, Israel indiscriminately bombed targets in Iran, including a uranium enrichment facility and residental areas in serveral cities. Which makes this another tit for tat action as Iran is doing the same, albeit probably less effectively, with cruise missiles targetting Israel. My guess would be that both parties will keep doing that whenever the responsible political leaders consider it convenient.
If you rejoice in war then you understand nothing. You demonstrate an ignorance which makes you a danger to humanity. A hundred years ago ten percent of war casualties were civilians. These days it is over ninety percent. A moralist might perceive an issue here. And yet this truth seems to be barely acknowledged which demonstrates the extent of the psychosis.
Case A: Russia considers potential NATO encroachment into Ukraine an existential threat and so attacks Ukraine.
Case B: Israel considers the potential development of a nuclear weapon by Iran an existential threat and so attacks Iran.
It is going to be hilarious watching people defend Case B while opposing Case A. And vice versa.
Considering that the Baltic states have been in the NATO for a long time, Case A is obviously spin. And Israel already did air strikes on Iran because of WMDs!!1 when I was a teenager. In reality, Iran has very likely as many of these as Iraq had before the invasion, ie, none.
Good example of the mental gymnastics we’re going to witness as people try to justify one and not the other.
As I pointed out that both of your “cases” are fiction at odds with reality, what made you think that I was trying to “justify one and not the other”?
NATO, via RAND corporation, published in 2019 the doctrine of overextending and unbalancing Russia through the massive enlargement of NATO along the Russian border, and the aggravation of Ukraine’s then relatively minor border dispute with Russia to create a proxy war as the pretext for the massive supply of lethal weaponry to Ukraine.
So – not spin. Published NATO doctrine. Source: Dobbins, J. et al. (2019) Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options. RAND Corporation. Available at: https://doi.org/10.7249/RB10014.
This refers to the situation before the Russian invasion which was Ukraine fighting a stalemated war against so-called separatists in two eastern provinces and the single paragraph dealing with Ukraine (out of 27) closes with the assertion that such military aid would need to be “carefully calibrated” to avoid “provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages.”
That’s the conflict which exists now and the RAND corporation was of the opinion that it would not only not expose Russia to “existential danger” but actually suit it.
What was your point?
Excellent points— what a powerful juxtaposition!
Bit of a tangent, but for those who weren’t aware of a less well-known fact about Iran, courtesy of the obviously staunchly homophobic Islamic regime; ”If you want to understand what drives trans ideology look at what’s happening in Iran where a new national plan aims to increase revenue from medical tourism six fold; including from the country’s booming gender clinics. Why does this matter? In the West, trans activists and gender clinicians often try to disguise their homophobia. In Iran where homosexuality is punishable by death and trans ideology is officially sanctioned there’s no such need. Gender clinics effectively offer to save gays. By mutilating them. My article reveals this gruesome money-machine is being boosted as Iran aims to make $6Bn a year from medical tourism. A key role will be played by its competing private gender clinics which are among the busiest in the world. Only Thailand does more ‘sex change surgery’. These clinics quote the same research and follow the same WPATH guidelines as in the West. But in this homophobic culture doctors revel in their Messiah complex. Iran’s leading ‘sex change’ surgeon Shahryar Cohanzad even tours as a performer. His disturbing memoir reveals that Cohanzad shares… Read more »
You are crazy. You see some positive way forward? I doubt it rather it seems that you delight in vicarious warfare. Just like establishment Brits are happy for a million Ukrainian soldiers to be sacrificed. Every desperate action denotes the rage of a dying empire. It is certainly true that a significant chunk of the Iranian population longs for liberalism but the Persians our proud in a way that we can’t really understand in our culture. And if you look at the Persoan popular culture it is very melancholy, all about lost love and martyrdom. Iran is a very stoned place. Highest rate of illicit drug usage in the world. This approach is entirely the wrong one and unlike most westerners they aren’t too fussed about death.
I know this culture very well. As Rudyard Kipling said, he who takes what the Parsee man bakes makes great mistakes.
There is no war between Iran and the West rather an increasing closeness. And consider that we grew up on Hebraic and Greek and Roman ways of thinking. Nietzsche commented that if the western traidion were transmitted via the Persians than the Greeks that we would be much more vital now. Iran was the centre of Jewish power for over two millenia and still has some influence in terms of the exoarchy. There is a very rich part of Tehran were Jews live and they are doing fine. Iran is the only culture that never kicked them out. Jewish and Iranian culturee is very similar almost identical.
Heum, nuclear power, ‘friends of Israel’ groups in every single major political party in the West, genocide in Gaza, occupying parts of Syria and strikes on Iran….Alexa..who is the most dangerous nation on earth?
You make a big mistake if you are trying to precipate a colour revolution. They already have their freedom women increasingly don’t bother to cover their hair and the sub culture there is like the west forty years ago, punks goths etc. Dissident poets and voices This idea that people don’t drink there is insane. They drink in quantity. But show me an English person who has ever even seen one honest depiction of Iran. Not their fault of course but sad as part of the general pathos.
This is one hundred percent a British war, Didn’t your heroine admit as much on a newews show a couple of weeks ago when she described it as a proxy war. One hundred percent British planning and involvement.
You are crazy look at yourself and how out of shape you are. Can you imagine being approached by a fierce and determined enemy? They will slice you up I have seen videos of it. Surely the first step in warfare is to garner a sense of your own potential.
The boomer love of war is crazy especially now that they are coming into their dotage. The good news is that the young people are much better. No appetite for hostility. You destroy your own young people as much as you destroy people abroad. Your psychotic reign is coming to an end.
The way of Gaza and Iran and Lebanon is the way of the world. Essentially lab rats. Believe me they have it in store for you no matter how far away you are. You are a mess physically and mentally. You need to regain some focus.
You will learn how God is great and how he spits your lukewarm entrails out of his mouth.
The Iranians have bragged for a whlile that they have enough missile infrastructure underground to keep attacking Israel even after a nuclear strike. Hopefully we will see such an exchange. I suspect it will be slow and be more calibrated but this attack has already moved the escalation ladder close to the top. And just in case you din’t know the people behind the Iran escalation are the same people behind the marches in America tomorrow. A perfect distillation of rage. The ‘no kings’ movement. Very well executed perfectly done.
When it arrives on their doorstep they usually just follow the spiel that is laid out. We can’t afford that anymore it endangers all of us.
Israel’s ballistic missile defences are provided by the US. The US increased production of SM-6 ballistic missile interceptors to 300 a year and used up a large number of them against the Houthis. Every one it loses now in Israel is one fewer for shooting down Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles and keeping the Guam airfields operational. China is watching it empty its magazines. It can’t maintain support.
Iraq demonstrated that American intelligence could not be believed. Libya demonstrated that America could not be trusted. Afghanistan demonstrated that America did not need to be feared. Israel is now reinforcing that last lesson.
No, Middle Eastern country can defeat Israel. History is littered which the failures of those who’ve tried.
This is a very strange war presume there won’t be any “boots on the ground” from either side what with being various countries between the protagonists?