Heat Pump Refuseniks Risk £2,000 Surge in Gas Bills
Households delaying the switch to heat pumps risk a £2,000 spike in energy bills as the shift to Net Zero drives an exodus from the gas network. The Telegraphhas the details.
But with heat pump numbers forecast to rise, the energy watchdog Ofgem has predicted the bills paid by those who stick with their gas boilers risk spiralling.
This is because the cost of maintaining the gas network’s 174,000 miles of pipes and pumps will be spread across ever-fewer customers.
According to Ofgem’s modelling, charges for those who stick with gas will rise relatively slowly through the 2020s and 2030s but then jump tenfold in the space of a few years during the 2040s, to at least £2,000 per year and likely continue to rise.
That compares to an average of £170 paid per year in charges by the 23 million households with gas boilers today.
The surge in bills will take off when the number of people ditching gas heating reaches a tipping point, according to documents published by Ofgem.
At that stage, gas network costs will become so high that they cause a stampede of disconnections. …
The average cost of installing an air source heat pump is about £13,000, according to data from industry standards body MCS. …
Alongside the issue of gas network charges, Ofgem has also warned that there is currently no plan for the physical shutdown and decommissioning of the gas distribution networks themselves. …
Ofgem has not yet estimated the cost of doing this. But a separate study published by the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) last year found it could cost up to £74 billion, about £2,600 per household.
At this point people need to start to equip themselves with the knowledge of how to avoid paying bills. Just as illegal immigrants throw away their papers and ensure they can stay in the UK because there is a route through law, so to the astute customer of gas and electricity supply, can use grey areas in the law to never have to pay a bill AND get away with it (do this at your own risk, many have found it works). This is legalised theft. Don’t put up with it. Don’t pay. Or rather do but use your Cestui Que Vie trust…
A risk of a £2,000 surge from around 2040… vs buggering about with my house now at enormous expense and having a system which does not meet my requirements:
Cold at night, warm in the morning. By cold, I mean windows open in winter sort of cold.
By 2040 we’ll either be so messed up that nothing works or we’ll have escaped the madness. One other possibility might be that heat pump technology will have improved to the point that they actually would work for me.
The other possibility would be that I’m dead or in a ‘care’ home and beyond caring.
We won’t have enough electrical power anyway for all those heat pumps.
Also the streets, and gardens if you have one, will be a mess from years of upgrading cables.
Thing is, your bills will surge either way because there’s no way we can generate enough juice to run all these heat pumps and EVs using windmills, so juice will become scarce/need to be bought from abroad.
I know the meters have a ‘cut off supply’ function, but I understood there was no ‘restore the supply’ functionality, it needed a physical engineer intervention. Even if possible, the contactor inside the meter wouldn’t be designed for a regular duty cycle? Therefore I believe the ‘cut off’ will have to be induced by commercial means, ie a huge spike in leccy costs from x to y hours, making some people switch off (used to be called triad periods for commercial users). Either that or whole sections of the regional grids will need to switched in and out – again, it’s not designed for that as a common occurrence to my knowledge
As sure as eggs is eggs, the eco socialist scam will first give you the NUDGE, then along comes the PUSH. ——You will be inundated with shiny brochures from heat pump company’s all seeking to grab as much pretend to save the planet subsidies as their grubby hands can gather. TV ads will show you happy smiling families (probably of mixed race so as to kill two Liberal Progressive birds with one stone) laughing and smiling in their cosy home, probably at Christmas time with snow outside and them safe inside because of their fabulous heat pump. The BBC and SKY NEWS Climate Show will ramp up the forest fire coverage. Ice blocks the size of Manhattan will be calving from the icecaps every 20 minutes and storm surges will soon according to phony climate models be rasping up the Statue of Liberty and sweeping hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers to a watery death, with those who remains’ apartments all awash. ——-If ONLY we had all listened to Ed Miliband, Leonardo Di Caprio and the King we could have averted this Climate Emergency and so when the storms abate and the fires burn out we must arrest these blasted… Read more »
The Earth’s magnetic field is weakening, so it is likely that another Carrington Event, 1859, will have a much greater effect, especially as we have expanded our electrical grids.
So putting all our eggs in one basket, and depending on the National Electricity Grid for all our power supplies would only appeal to Arts, Humanities and Social Science graduates, from both universities.
10navigator
1 year ago
Bosch, who know a thing or two about heat pumps, being a major manufacturer of same state that the majority of UK homes are unsuitable for heat pump installation…. Good enough for me!
British homes are subjected to large, short term variations in temperature and humidity which can produce ideal conditions for mould growth, so they haven’t been built for Scandinavian weather. That is either very cold or warm (that is, slightly less cold, but still warmer than very cold), for long periods.
And then there are the problems of heat pumps working wonderfully well, in summer, but not so much in winter. And there’s the noise of air sourced heat pumps, while ground sourced heat pumps need a large garden, or an expensive vertical hole.
This is a modelled prediction of course, so we can safely discount it. The real danger as always is Government’s inability to distguish between models and reality.
This sounds like very crude coercion, or is it ‘nudging’?. If the take up of heat pumps has only just managed to get to less than 1%, even with threats of imminent human extinction, it might be a while till the gas network ‘suffers’ a drop in usage. Drawing graphs showing where anything will be in 10 years will only be as good as the character, intellect and independence of the person drawing them. In addition the threat from an emboldened Russian/Chinese/Islamic alliance and the possibility of a diversity hire being the next US President than all bets are off. And we have to get passed and survive Klaus Schwab’s 2030 deadline first.
This is the same gas network used to transfer gas to the many, many gas powered power stations / gas turbines spread around our good land generating electricity yes?…. Hmmmm don’t think so – they are everywhere and often smaller ones closer to residential areas / cities than you think. I’ve been involved with commissioning a few and they need a damn big gas feed!
EppBlog: Golly, I do hope you’re right! Sadly however, the main culprits are doubling down on the lies and scare stories, regardless of the reality all can see …
zebedee
1 year ago
So I don’t need to make a decision for at least 16 years during which I will have probably had to replace my boiler once. Plenty of time for models to hit reality.
My main concern is that I will need to move house to get a wood burner or go to a warmer/saner country.
I replaced my boiler this year. £3.5k ish. My old one was dying so I decided to do it now and avoid possible future levys. I won’t ever have a heat-pump unless they make ‘real’ sense.
LwM
1 year ago
There are 300 houses around us in an area a quarter of a mile square, so I imagine all these houses trying to suck the heat out of the air at the same time when it’s zero in February. Will that work?
So they have admitted that there is no plan to shutdown and decommission distribution equipment. So far, I’ve come across a couple of houses fitted with heat pumps – one of which was a brand new one, and the other is an almost rebuild of a 1960s one. There will be thousands more that cannot use that type of heating, more than likely. Anyway, one might as well go to a bookmaker than pay much attention to that Ofgem betting graph.
Leaving the graph aside, what is a fairly safe bet if that if this and other rich world governments continue on the path they are on, electricity will be more expensive and we will pay the price directly, through taxes and through more expensive goods and services.
Looks like I’ll be paying £2k then. No way am I paying to have one of the useless, expensive hulks installed.
Is it possible to seek asylum – from within our country – from all this idiocy which is steadfastly ruining our way of life? Preferably a way that doesn’t involve boats on a long journey – although if seeking asylum, safety and handouts requires the obligatory boat ride, a quick chug across a local lake might suffice…Anyone joining me?
Alongside the issue of gas network charges, Ofgem has also warned that there is currently no plan for the physical shutdown and decommissioning of the gas distribution networks themselves. …
Ofgem has not yet estimated the cost of doing this. But a separate study published by the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) last year found it could cost up to £74 billion, about £2,600 per household.
When it comes to decommissioning the gas distribution network, as long as you’re sure you’ve done with it there’s a simple solution: Close the valves to an area and pump concrete into the pipes. Done. £74bn?
This talk of decommissioning is funny – since when has a utility ever tidied up after itself on that scale, unless it’s valuable material left in the ground like copper etc – pvc gas pipes are worth buttons… and once the feed is switched off, it’s off, don’t give them ideas about filling the pipes with cement etc…
Michael Staples
1 year ago
I am not particularly convinced by this scare story, as I think most people will stick to gas. However, although Sir Keir Starmer says that he won’t make householders ditch gas boilers, he also promises to reduce our energy bills by £300. Currently, electricity users have to pay about £250 on average as surcharges to fund the additional costs associated with the supposedly low-cost renewable energy. Would I be unduly cynical to think that the surcharges will shortly be transferred onto gas bills to enable Sir Keir to claim he had fulfilled his election pledge by reducing electricity bills for every household, whilst at the same time discouraging use of gas?
PS We have just had our gas main and all feeds to houses in our road completely replaced. which should be good for another 80 years.
Peter W
1 year ago
So, who pays for the eventual decommissioning? Oh, of course, I know.
The cost will not be put against the cost of going over to heat pumps of that you can be certain.
RTSC
1 year ago
Nudge, nudge, shove, kick.
Pembroke
1 year ago
The gas network I’m currently connected to is no where near 174,000 miles, more like 50 feet or so from my LPG boiler to the tank in the garden.
Ground source heat pumps ‘may’ be acceptable, but you need a large garden for the pipework and installation still costs a large amount of cash.
Nope, not having any of this.
We will take to the streets and stop this madness before they get anywhere near 2030. By then the public that’s still asleep will wake up and realise that all of this Carbon capture nonsense is a scam. Natural gas is the best way of heating our homes and will be for the foreseeable future.
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At this point people need to start to equip themselves with the knowledge of how to avoid paying bills. Just as illegal immigrants throw away their papers and ensure they can stay in the UK because there is a route through law, so to the astute customer of gas and electricity supply, can use grey areas in the law to never have to pay a bill AND get away with it (do this at your own risk, many have found it works). This is legalised theft. Don’t put up with it. Don’t pay. Or rather do but use your Cestui Que Vie trust…
https://youtu.be/7h70TDZ4PkE?si=Qyub6aIHROooie86
A risk of a £2,000 surge from around 2040… vs buggering about with my house now at enormous expense and having a system which does not meet my requirements:
Cold at night, warm in the morning. By cold, I mean windows open in winter sort of cold.
By 2040 we’ll either be so messed up that nothing works or we’ll have escaped the madness. One other possibility might be that heat pump technology will have improved to the point that they actually would work for me.
The other possibility would be that I’m dead or in a ‘care’ home and beyond caring.
It’s not so much improving heat pump technology as changing the Laws of Thermodynamics.
Heat Pumps work better in warm weather than when it’s cold, when most people want the heating on.
I was just about to write a very similar comment! The scare tactics won’t work with those of us with any functioning neurons!
We won’t have enough electrical power anyway for all those heat pumps.
Also the streets, and gardens if you have one, will be a mess from years of upgrading cables.
Precisely. I may well not be in my current home by 2040 …. if I am I’ll worry about it then. I’m not wrecking it now to suit the Tyrants.
Thing is, your bills will surge either way because there’s no way we can generate enough juice to run all these heat pumps and EVs using windmills, so juice will become scarce/need to be bought from abroad.
Perhaps nontransmissionofleccy would thus be an appropriate cognomen then tof?
Lol yeah
I can’t see how this is going to end except with power cuts or explicit or implicit rationing, unless they backslide on their plans
Usage will be rationed via your ‘money saving’ smart meter.
I know the meters have a ‘cut off supply’ function, but I understood there was no ‘restore the supply’ functionality, it needed a physical engineer intervention. Even if possible, the contactor inside the meter wouldn’t be designed for a regular duty cycle? Therefore I believe the ‘cut off’ will have to be induced by commercial means, ie a huge spike in leccy costs from x to y hours, making some people switch off (used to be called triad periods for commercial users). Either that or whole sections of the regional grids will need to switched in and out – again, it’s not designed for that as a common occurrence to my knowledge
As sure as eggs is eggs, the eco socialist scam will first give you the NUDGE, then along comes the PUSH. ——You will be inundated with shiny brochures from heat pump company’s all seeking to grab as much pretend to save the planet subsidies as their grubby hands can gather. TV ads will show you happy smiling families (probably of mixed race so as to kill two Liberal Progressive birds with one stone) laughing and smiling in their cosy home, probably at Christmas time with snow outside and them safe inside because of their fabulous heat pump. The BBC and SKY NEWS Climate Show will ramp up the forest fire coverage. Ice blocks the size of Manhattan will be calving from the icecaps every 20 minutes and storm surges will soon according to phony climate models be rasping up the Statue of Liberty and sweeping hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers to a watery death, with those who remains’ apartments all awash. ——-If ONLY we had all listened to Ed Miliband, Leonardo Di Caprio and the King we could have averted this Climate Emergency and so when the storms abate and the fires burn out we must arrest these blasted… Read more »
The Earth’s magnetic field is weakening, so it is likely that another Carrington Event, 1859, will have a much greater effect, especially as we have expanded our electrical grids.
So putting all our eggs in one basket, and depending on the National Electricity Grid for all our power supplies would only appeal to Arts, Humanities and Social Science graduates, from both universities.
Bosch, who know a thing or two about heat pumps, being a major manufacturer of same state that the majority of UK homes are unsuitable for heat pump installation…. Good enough for me!
British homes are subjected to large, short term variations in temperature and humidity which can produce ideal conditions for mould growth, so they haven’t been built for Scandinavian weather. That is either very cold or warm (that is, slightly less cold, but still warmer than very cold), for long periods.
And then there are the problems of heat pumps working wonderfully well, in summer, but not so much in winter. And there’s the noise of air sourced heat pumps, while ground sourced heat pumps need a large garden, or an expensive vertical hole.
And there are a lot of flats that need heating.
This is a modelled prediction of course, so we can safely discount it. The real danger as always is Government’s inability to distguish between models and reality.
This sounds like very crude coercion, or is it ‘nudging’?. If the take up of heat pumps has only just managed to get to less than 1%, even with threats of imminent human extinction, it might be a while till the gas network ‘suffers’ a drop in usage. Drawing graphs showing where anything will be in 10 years will only be as good as the character, intellect and independence of the person drawing them. In addition the threat from an emboldened Russian/Chinese/Islamic alliance and the possibility of a diversity hire being the next US President than all bets are off. And we have to get passed and survive Klaus Schwab’s 2030 deadline first.
Well I won’t be doing anything because I won’t be having a useless heat pump.
As far as I am concerned if any advice is based on modelling it should be ignored.
Another one of hux’s rules of life.
Right on – as they used to say in the 70s.
Cheers.
This is the same gas network used to transfer gas to the many, many gas powered power stations / gas turbines spread around our good land generating electricity yes?…. Hmmmm don’t think so – they are everywhere and often smaller ones closer to residential areas / cities than you think. I’ve been involved with commissioning a few and they need a damn big gas feed!
By the time we get to the claimed surge in costs per consumer the whine Net Zero scam will have folded.
EppBlog: Golly, I do hope you’re right! Sadly however, the main culprits are doubling down on the lies and scare stories, regardless of the reality all can see …
So I don’t need to make a decision for at least 16 years during which I will have probably had to replace my boiler once. Plenty of time for models to hit reality.
My main concern is that I will need to move house to get a wood burner or go to a warmer/saner country.
I replaced my boiler this year. £3.5k ish. My old one was dying so I decided to do it now and avoid possible future levys. I won’t ever have a heat-pump unless they make ‘real’ sense.
There are 300 houses around us in an area a quarter of a mile square, so I imagine all these houses trying to suck the heat out of the air at the same time when it’s zero in February. Will that work?
😀 😀 😀
Sounds like I’ll get half of my preferred system. That’s my ‘cold at night’ bit sorted. Now, what about the warm in the morning bit?
I suppose the best place for heat pumps is around Westminster, what with all that hot air expelled by the numpties who sit there.
Can’t be sure but this smells like a behavioural insights nudge to me.
So they have admitted that there is no plan to shutdown and decommission distribution equipment. So far, I’ve come across a couple of houses fitted with heat pumps – one of which was a brand new one, and the other is an almost rebuild of a 1960s one. There will be thousands more that cannot use that type of heating, more than likely. Anyway, one might as well go to a bookmaker than pay much attention to that Ofgem betting graph.
Leaving the graph aside, what is a fairly safe bet if that if this and other rich world governments continue on the path they are on, electricity will be more expensive and we will pay the price directly, through taxes and through more expensive goods and services.
Looks like I’ll be paying £2k then. No way am I paying to have one of the useless, expensive hulks installed.
Is it possible to seek asylum – from within our country – from all this idiocy which is steadfastly ruining our way of life? Preferably a way that doesn’t involve boats on a long journey – although if seeking asylum, safety and handouts requires the obligatory boat ride, a quick chug across a local lake might suffice…Anyone joining me?
Cultivate your escape route to reduced latitudes.
When it comes to decommissioning the gas distribution network, as long as you’re sure you’ve done with it there’s a simple solution: Close the valves to an area and pump concrete into the pipes. Done. £74bn?
This talk of decommissioning is funny – since when has a utility ever tidied up after itself on that scale, unless it’s valuable material left in the ground like copper etc – pvc gas pipes are worth buttons… and once the feed is switched off, it’s off, don’t give them ideas about filling the pipes with cement etc…
I am not particularly convinced by this scare story, as I think most people will stick to gas. However, although Sir Keir Starmer says that he won’t make householders ditch gas boilers, he also promises to reduce our energy bills by £300. Currently, electricity users have to pay about £250 on average as surcharges to fund the additional costs associated with the supposedly low-cost renewable energy. Would I be unduly cynical to think that the surcharges will shortly be transferred onto gas bills to enable Sir Keir to claim he had fulfilled his election pledge by reducing electricity bills for every household, whilst at the same time discouraging use of gas?
PS We have just had our gas main and all feeds to houses in our road completely replaced. which should be good for another 80 years.
So, who pays for the eventual decommissioning? Oh, of course, I know.
The cost will not be put against the cost of going over to heat pumps of that you can be certain.
Nudge, nudge, shove, kick.
The gas network I’m currently connected to is no where near 174,000 miles, more like 50 feet or so from my LPG boiler to the tank in the garden.
Ground source heat pumps ‘may’ be acceptable, but you need a large garden for the pipework and installation still costs a large amount of cash.
Nope, not having any of this.
We will take to the streets and stop this madness before they get anywhere near 2030. By then the public that’s still asleep will wake up and realise that all of this Carbon capture nonsense is a scam. Natural gas is the best way of heating our homes and will be for the foreseeable future.