Reform U.K. on Track to Win 13 Seats, Final Major Poll Shows
Reform U.K. is on track to win 13 MPs, the final major poll of the General Election has predicted. The Telegraph has more.
Mr. Farage returned to frontline politics to lead the insurgent party in the second week of the election, prompting it to surge in the polls.
For the last survey of the campaign, Survation interviewed a total of 1,679 British adults for its “last call”, with fieldwork conducted between Monday, July 1st and Wednesday July 3rd.
A previous seat-by-seat prediction that Reform would win seven seats was subsequently revised upwards to 13, while it was also on track to win 17% of the popular vote.
Sir Keir Starmer was predicted to win a bigger landslide for Labour than Sir Tony Blair[‘s 418 seats] with 475 seats.
However, this would come from just 37.6% of the vote, a smaller share than the 40% achieved by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost the 2017 general election.
The Conservatives were projected to win 19.9%, the Liberal Democrats 12.1% and the Green Party 7.2%.
This would translate to the Tories winning 64 seats, less than one-fifth of the 349 MPs the party had at the end of the last parliament when Rishi Sunak called the election.
They would only be four seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who were set to win 60 seats by making significant gains in the “Blue Wall” – traditional Tory heartland seats in the Home Counties.
Survation arrived at its prediction by quizzing 34,558 respondents across previous weeks and predicting which constituencies would end up voting for which parties.
Once its interviews between Monday and Wednesday were completed, these findings were then applied to its seat-by-seat poll.
Worth reading in full.
It seems a bit off that during the campaign the pollster predicted just seven seats for Reform but jacked it up to 13 on the last day – a cynical person who sees opinion polls as akin to propaganda might wonder if the lower estimates were intended to demoralise supporters while the last-minute higher estimate is to salvage reputation. But let’s assume it was an innocent error in the assumptions, now duly corrected.
As ever, it’s very hard to predict what is happening in every seat, where local conditions, personalities and tactical voting can make a big difference in tight contests. So it’ll be very interesting to see how things pan out and how many seats Reform actually manages to snag. A start-up party winning any under First Past the Post is a major achievement, of course – and a reflection of just how angry and disillusioned voters are with both the Tories and Labour.
Look out for the exit poll at 10pm, which typically gives a very accurate indication of how the country has voted and what it means in terms of seats and majorities. We’ll report on it here at the Daily Sceptic.
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I think all pollsters are underestimating the effect on the Labour vote of a two pronged pincer movement from Workers(sic) Party on the left and Reform on their right. Galloway lot in particular will be difficult to estimate due to the type of demographic. And I do think there will also be a ‘shy Reform voter’ effect as well.
Some polls predicted up to 55 seats for Reform. 10-20 seems possible. Not bad given a base of 1 (Lee Anderson).
Hard to believe that 20% of the pop still votes for the Convict party of Rona Medical Nazism, Lockdowns, Net zero, open borders etc. Unfrigging believable. Brain dead. You either vote Reform, Independent or spoil your ballot.
As are those who vote for the party that thought the Con’s didn’t go far enough. The Loopy Party.
No Reform where I am.
80% of our fellow citizens, including some BTL posters here, of those who vote, look set to have voted for various flavours of left wing socialist parties, most of globalist to boot.
They’re providing live coverage on the site below, though I’m sure there’s many options to choose from. Just in case this site is hit by another ‘invasion of the invalid nonces’ or some other type of glitch. I expect DS to be a hive of activity in the morning and onwards; ”Around two-thirds of the results are expected to be declared between 3:00 and 5:00 a.m. on Friday morning. The Sunderland South constituency should be first to declare, with the seat holding the record for the fastest declaration time of 10:43 p.m., set in 2001. Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer are likely to speak at around 4 a.m., when their own seats are called. All eyes will also be on Reform UK’s target seats, with the party expected to secure millions of votes but a disproportionately low number of MPs due to their distribution (and thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system). Its leader, Nigel Farage’s target seat should be declared at around 4 a.m. Attention will also be paid to Liberal Democrat gains, given the possibility that the leftist party’s MPs could outnumber the Tories and become the ‘official opposition.’ Before voting closes, we will be publishing a number of updates here, including on what… Read more »
I’ve been genuinely shocked this week by how many friends and family are either;
1) not voting Reform/ spoiling vote (either is fine by me considering the alternative)
2) voting for Labour…
These are people who are against LGBT narratives, against Christian and tradition destruction, retrospectively angry about lockdown etc and even questioning the net zero lies…
Just goes to show how little the average person knows about party manifestos.
“Anything is better than Tories” a friend said… I’m guessing we’re in for a few rough years of denial and realisation.
Anything is better than the Tories? How do they know that? And if it were true, why not vote Reform. Or Workers Party. Spoiling the ballot paper resonates with no one.
The Westminster system is in an advanced state of decay given public attitudes to politics. It may not survive contact with the 2029 election if votes for 16s results in the zoomers voting for the Right and the ‘demographics’ voting based on events in the Middle East. All the spleen of future elections are present in this one, including the desire to drive the Tory Party to extinction.
Agenda 2030 has a target date of surprisingly 2030 so much of it will be in place by 2029. There is little of our way of life today that will remain by 2029 including the broken parliamentary system. Our sovereignty could have been given away, cash wiped out, personal transport a memory, mandates for everything and 15 minute cities. The real battles commence July 5th and as I’ve posted before it’s shit or bust.
A Labour landslide will usher in evil on steroids.
I couldn’t agree more H
as already posted elsewhere on here…I am in despair. its been a long painful haul to get… pretty much nowhere.
I fear what will happen when the proletariat finally realise they’ve been duped.
3 cheeks of the same arse? 3cheeks? that must mean 2 bum holes…hmm I suppose that that might appeal to a disproportionately noisy and influential minority.
Seriously though…I am officially afraid. Very very afraid! It was always going to be a toughie, for sure.
The ‘Globalist’ plan appears to be slithering quietly into place.
One more general election between now and 2030 and everything appears to be going to schedule for the devotees of stakeholder capitalism and the oddly Bond Villain facsimile chairman of the WEF.
We live in very scary times!
If I know they’re a Globalist party, there is no point in reading their manifesto.
Well I cast my vote for Reform, they are not perfect but the more of them in Parliament talking (some) home truths, the better. Used a little black pen.
You’re supposed to use pencil because ink sometimes smudges and spoils the ballot if it is not fully dry when the ballot is folded or tossed about inside the box, which is why only pencils are provided at polling stations.
I always use a black ballpoint pen for voting. I find it incredible that people accept the use of a pencil and cannot think of any other official signing where it would be permitted. Pencil makes a provisional, alterable mark and is an obvious security risk where margins are tiny. Pencil is only generally accepted because it has always been that way (in case the peasants stole the pens, I suppose!). Modern biros do not smudge and have been on bank counters (remember them?) for decades. That really is something that needs to be changed and it could be done at the stroke of a pen….sorry….
Guessing the results for start up parties has always been tricky. Remember what happened with the SDP back in the 1980s. Then again, if the Tories collapse, there could be a deal with the Liberals as the SDP did. Conservative & Liberal Alliance Party, perhaps (be careful about the acronym with a name like that). Something nasty that they could acquire.
There doesn’t need to be a Conservative and Liberal Alliance Party. The Tories, Lib Dems and Labour are all in an alliance of globalist unconservative illiberal socialism.
Was surprised to get a text from Son in Law saying he and my daughter voted Reform.
”Not it that it’ll make a difference but want them to show gains! Then more people will start doing the same!”
Bought a tear to my eye. Just doing our bit against our stupid LibDum mp.
Bit conflicted, either a deselected Reform or Kemi Badenoch. The labour candidate is 21, but there is a chance she will sneak in!
“Conflicted”???
Oh, right, so the Indigenous English, Welsh, Scots, Irish and their descendants around the world really want an Ethnic African woman from Nigeria to be the leader of their ancestral homeland of the British Isles.
Perhaps because an Indigenous Englishman, Welshman, Scotsman, or Northern Irishman could not be found???
Or was cynically removed to allow the Ethnic African woman from Nigeria to win???
Only 4 seats, but a huge increase in votes. In many places they took second and third place.
So only 4 seats in the end. Just shows how exit polls are not (yet) fully accurate, although the Labour seat count prediction looked pretty good, but then the margins of error there were much smaller.
What is sobering though is the national vote share:
Party, Seats, Change, Votes (%), Change (% pt), Votes
Labour, 411, 213, 33.9, 1.7, 9675936
Conservative, 119, -250, 23.7, -19.9, 6771793
Reform UK, 4, 4, 14.3, -, 4075985
Liberal Democrat, 71, 63, 12.2, 0.7, 3489534
Green, 4, 3, 6.8, 4.1, 1934547
With the Lib Dems getting a LOWER % of the vote than Reform yet 67 more seats!
The greens seem to think they won with 4 seats and only 6.8% of the vote.
Never mind the exit polls not being accurate, our electoral system is astoundingly inaccurate, unrepresentative, undemocratic and completely bonkers!
Reform got 14% of the vote and 5 seats. Limp Dumbs got 12% of the vote and got 61 or 71 seats depending on your source. I won’t even bother with what percentage of the electorate voted Liebour and how many seats they got because the figures are so grossly, unfairly distorted as to make any patriot vomit.
We need PR asap otherwise we’ll be in a permanent state of seesawing between two crap & crapper parties that take turns to ruin this country for its rightful people while pretending to care about it, hypocrites and liars that they are. Nothing but the downward spiral of the decades since the end of WW2.