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Mogwai
2 years ago

Will there come a time when we aren’t talking about excess deaths because they have gone back to baseline? How can they be worse in England and Wales now when less people are taking the jabs? Here’s the latest;

”Worryingly, 2023 is looking far worse than 2022. We are close to 30,000 excess deaths already this year, compared with approximately 7,700 this time last year.
If we continue at this rate, there will be approximately 70,000 excess deaths this year.
But where are these excess deaths happening? (the following charts are using the ONS’ five-year average so in reality the situation is worse)
The majority are at home which indicates that people are either avoiding hospitals, not being allowed into hospitals or dying so quickly that they never make it into a hospital. However, the cumulative number is similar to 2022.”

https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/excess-deaths-and-post-neonatal-deaths

soundofreason
soundofreason
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

It depends how we measure ‘excess deaths’. If we look at age-standardised (all-cause) mortality rate for England and Wales in annual Jul-Jun years then the year ending end-June 2023 is not so very dreadful.

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ONS persist in quoting their figures compared with previous five-year averages – and cherry-pick the years they don’t want to include in the average because they’re worse than usual. If they used trends people might wonder what all the fuss was about.

Using ASMR figures can conceal a worrying increase in mortality in younger people. Naturally, more older people die than younger; a significant increase in younger death rate can be swamped by the fairly normal death rate of the Crumblies like me.

Mogwai
2 years ago
Reply to  soundofreason

Thanks for that. I’ve not got a clue about these things so I tend to just rely on my go to ‘trusted sources’ for information. I was curious how more people are dying and his data goes up to week 26, so summertime then. So we can’t blame a seasonal virus now can we? Yes your data looks better. This is why, for noobs like me who don’t scrutinize data in any real depth, it can get confusing with conflicting stats shown in a variety of ways by various people.

soundofreason
soundofreason
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

ASMR is useful as it’s a single number that is easy for journalists to repeat. We need to be a little cautious as it can blur finer detail changes. It’s essentially a good measure of how well we’re doing keeping oldies alive.

For finer detail we need to look at mortality in individual age groups:

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Mogwai
2 years ago
Reply to  soundofreason

Thanks for sharing. 🤓

JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  soundofreason

Leaving 2020 out is an obvious case of cherry picking by the ONS. Not only that, the choice of using 5 years is curious for long term averages. Other organisations, such as the Met Office, use 30 years for a lot of comparisons against averages, e.g.

Jon Garvey
2 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

And of course if a high excess death rate persists at the same rate, on a 5-year average basis it soon becomes the average, and the problem for public health is solved by statistics!

soundofreason
soundofreason
2 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

To be fair ONS have only been publishing weekly mortality figures in more-or-less the current form since 2010. Comparing against 30-year trends would be problematic. They started with 5 year averages and got a bit stuck in their ways. That’s no reason for journalists not to have challenged the figures though.

It seems a bit weird to me that we base our so many of our mortality stats on Jan 1st to Dec 31st years. The cut off is slap in the middle of our Northern Hemisphere peak mortality period and maximum public holiday disruptions. Mid-year to mid-year seems more sensible to me. To fit it to the weekly, short-term data that would be week 27 to week 26 of the following year.

Dinger64
2 years ago
Reply to  soundofreason

Not so dreadful? Ffs!
Sounds like your a prime candidate for a modern political leader!

soundofreason
soundofreason
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

Yes. Not so dreadful.

2020 was not so very dreadful. For England and Wales It was a natural correction for the unusually low mortality in 2019. Of course, an awful lot of people died in just a few weeks which was very scary.

The years ending in Jul 2021, 2022 and 2023 are about normal mortality for the long term trend. It varies up and down a bit, but that’s people for you.

What is not normal is that there are more younger people dying than usual. Using ASMR this signal is swamped by the usual large number of oldies dying.

In a reply to a previous comment I attempted to show the quarterly excess deaths for seven age groups (Under 1, 1-14, 15-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85plus) in England and Wales from 2010 to mid-2023 but the moderators seem to be checking that a post with seven charts in it is legitimate. Suffice to say that groups that apparently shrugged off Covid-19 in the second quarter of 2020 seemed to be harder hit in first quarter 2021 and subsequently (fourth quarter 2021 and after for 1-14s…)

Chris P
Chris P
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Latest from Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l6Q2r5VWLo

The number of deaths reported was 87 (page 33 of the report)

Mogwai
2 years ago

That woman-hating nutjob has been arrested. Can’t see it being anything other than a slap on the wrist though tbh;

https://twitter.com/OliLondonTV/status/1679251669480099842

Dinger64
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Looks like the police are lead by opinion rather than criminal acts! Breaking the law is Breaking the law! Since when have the police had the power to judge? They are supposed to enforce, not decide!

EppingBlogger
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

A good bit of prevention and detection would not go amiss.

Mogwai
2 years ago

Interesting but depressing thread of data from Ed Dowd. Basically everything’s looking worse, even autism. 🙁

”UK Disabilities (PIP) Project

We analyze claims cleared by Body System then by Underlying Causes.

Can Doctors & Health authorities please explain these findings? It’s a crisis of epic proportions.”

https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1679185829372268544

TheGreenAcres
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

Whilst I do know of genuine cases of autism, I also know from my experience as a governor at a small primary school that there are several parents – even in our small sample – who are demanding that their little brat be diagnosed as having ADHD or similar. Because then it’s not their own feckless behaviour that is to blame for their child’s problems, and then they can get welfare etc on top.

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

And letting their young children and toddlers become human pin cushions for toxic jabs, especially in the US but increasingly here in the UK. It’s an appalling spiral of decline and apathy and abdication of all responsibility of parenthood. When you see what is in the ‘normal’ vaccines, it is a wonder why any sane, rational and caring human being would inject that into a small child. It is demonic.

DS99
2 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

That may be the case but there is still a massive increase in autism in the past 30 years. Just to put it in perspective I remember when Rainman (1989) came out, they had to explain what autism was … virtually no one had heard of it.

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  DS99

It’s during the past 30 years that childhood vaccination has been ramped up. Doctors and medical professionals are baffled as usual!

Mogwai
2 years ago

Yet another researcher has replicated Kevin McKernon’s work and found plasmid contamination in the mRNA vials, and this guy is very pro-vax. That’s about 5 or 6 now by my count. But the regulators still urge pregnant women to get jabbed anyway! Can anybody explain how this is not nefarious?

”Anyway, the FDA finds itself in a difficult position at the moment. They promoted an experimental jab, and now they are attempting to remain silent regarding the contamination issue. It is clearly an out-of-specification (OOS) situation and justifies a product recall. The longer they delay, the more accountable they become for this ongoing wrongdoing.
Phillip is not the only scientist who has replicated these findings. We have scientists from Japan and various other locations who have also replicated the contamination, demonstrating that these are not isolated incidents.”

https://pharmafiles.substack.com/p/breaking-dna-plasmid-contamination

Steve-Devon
2 years ago

Why NATO shouldn’t let Ukraine in just yet” 

There seems to be a slight snag with the argument in this article in that it seems to assume that another little push and Ukraine will eject Russia and then it can join NATO and everything will be hunky-dory!

Knowing exactly what is going on in Ukraine is tricky but as best I can see the Russians have dug in and are prepared to do what they have successfully and brutally done before; They are grinding away at the enemy, irrespective of the cost, until they come out on top. As it is, Ukraine on it’s own seems to have little chance of re-capturing Donbas or Crimea which to my mind suggest that what should happen now is a call for a cease fire and unconditional peace talks to do otherwise will cost many lives and achieve very little.

The shabby compromise arrived at by NATO suggests that there are some who simply want this conflict to go on as long as possible, I will leave others to offer thoughts on why that might be the case?

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve-Devon

So reminiscent of the war in George Orwell’s 1984 between Oceania and Eurasia where nobody really knows what is going on and the war just drags on and on. I would venture a guess that to perpetuate this conflict actually distracts from the real business of developing the new world order or great reset and introducing next level restrictions on energy, travel, food etc. It keeps people in a constant anxious state especially when the possibility of nuclear war is flagged up. I don’t watch TV or read or listen to any news so I can’t comment on what mainstream media report other than what I see here and the odd mention on other online stuff (UK Column etc). However, I am disappointed – and now wholly unsurprised – that unlike previous conflicts there is absolutely no appetite for peace from any quarter that I am aware of. That, in itself, is highly alarming. What this has brought to my attention though is that NATO is thoroughly corrupt and part of the wider plan along with the UN and WHO. Is Russia part of the plan? I would say that whoever funds Russia is also funding Ukraine and NATO. Ultimately,… Read more »

BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago

The conflict is the perfect cover for money laundering, organ harvesting, child trafficking of which there is independent evidence from censored journalists who are on the official Ukrainian wanted persons ie kill list.

Provides a perfect distraction to the ongoing under the radar implementation of the rest of the nefarious agenda & a perfect excuse to impoverish & destroy Europe, destroy the middle classes & private businesses to create dependency on the state whilst transferring any assets owned by the plebs upwards to the already too rich & powerful class.

Dinger64
2 years ago

“The Sun has every right to ‘dig for dirt’”

Pity them and their msm mates don’t dig for dirt where it matters! (Vaccines, lockdowns, ulez,excess deaths, illegal immigration ,NHS, hs2, housing crisis, wef, who, bill Gates, farm closures etc, need I go on?)

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

Well said, Dings! There’s more than enough dirt out there to keep yer gutter-gulching journo in fresh newsprint for years.

soundofreason
soundofreason
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

I don’t agree they should ‘dig for dirt’ but their bovine stupidity during the Covid crisis and apparent lack of curiosity over ‘climate change’ figures is shameful. The typical refusal to even engage alternative opinions in debate is infuriating. The fourth estate is shirking its responsibilities.

WyrdWoman
2 years ago
AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  WyrdWoman

My word, thank heavens the MHRA has our back! If it wasn’t for their diligent and relentless efforts to ensure we have the means to fight these deadly plagues, I don’t know where we’d be. Maybe they could show us the way and lead the charge by jabbing themselves first though…

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago

The Post Office banking director Martin Kearsley talks sense and seem like a good man. I have heard however of a sinister development in reference to postmasters/mistresses in that the accounting systems they use are being used against them. Many, not sure of the actual numbers, postmasters/mistresses have been accused of fraud and embezzlement due to a ‘glitch’ in the accounting software with their lives ruined as a result. The net effect is that post offices close. Honestly, the lesser-powers -that-be seem to have thought of everything. This might be minor and maybe it’s now sorted out but it’s what I hear on the grapevine.

Dinger64
2 years ago

Close post offices and force the public online! All part of the central Bank digital currency agenda, f granny 👵!
Funny how we all stayed at home to protect granny, …now the post office couldn’t give one about older people!

AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

Bit by bit, Dings, bit by bit. Boil the frogs. Every little helps etc etc.

WyrdWoman
2 years ago

I think the PO scandal you’re referring to is an old story and has been settled – Andrew Bridgen was instrumental in bringing it to public & govt attention. The case dragged on for years and cost hundreds of postmasters money, time, health and in several cases, their lives. (I know someone who was directly affected.) Are they doing it again?

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/special_reports/justice-lost-in-the-post.pdf

EppingBlogger
2 years ago
Reply to  WyrdWoman

The issue has been identified but a huge amount still needs to be done to compensate those wrongly accused, convicted or imprisoned. Businesses lost, marriages wrecked, reputations shredded and suicides not uncommon.

there seems to be no appetite for punishing those who wilfully negligently or carelessly allowed this to happen. There is a very good book in the scandal (lent so not to hand to quote from) but it needs a sequel: what happened next and why did the culprits get away with it. BTW if the PO thought so many were stealing, who weren’t, where did the losses show up in the books or who else had the money.

huxleypiggles
2 years ago

Not another dodgy accounting scandal in Post Offices. The Horizon issue still festers.

Dinger64
2 years ago

“Britain should place a big bet on the petrol engine”

I’ll be the first to buy one!👍👍👍
In fact, put one aside for me, I’ll buy it on 31st Dec 2030 and it will see me out!

F#@k torchy the electric toy battery cars!

EppingBlogger
2 years ago
Reply to  Dinger64

Shame it’s Nissan. Renault controlled.

stewart
2 years ago

EU Commissioner says social media ‘didn’t do enough’ to censor French riot posts

That’s funny. I remember when the Arab Spring riots were taking place, social media was being praised as a tool for freedom.and democracy.

The hypocrisy of these people makes me sick. It’s boundless.

EppingBlogger
2 years ago

OT

Can anyone tell me when foul language becomes offensive and is it a criminal matter.

I have just endured a stream of such words from a middle aged male cyclist who received an old fashioned look from me when he cycled the wrong way down a one-way street in my town. He repeated it later when he saw me driving the right way down a one-way street where he was using the pavement.

MichaelM
2 years ago
Reply to  EppingBlogger

I may disagree with what he says (and the vitriol he uses and think him a nasty crude person) but I will defend to the death his right to say it.

D J
D J
2 years ago
Reply to  EppingBlogger

Some streets are marked 2 ways for bikes a d one way for cars. Might he be correct but uncouth, or just a plonker?

DomH75
2 years ago
Reply to  EppingBlogger

Ultimately, he’s free to be bad mannered and you’re free to call him out on it. It used to be blasphemy to use God’s name in vain, but sadly I think that was abolished 13 years ago.

Mogwai
2 years ago
Reply to  EppingBlogger

Over here in the NL the ‘no entry’ sign for a one-way street always states ”with the exception of cyclists” so we can go both ways. I can’t tell you how nice it is to finally be top of the ‘food chain’ as a cyclist. None of this ”us vs them” that you get in the UK. Cyclists can do no wrong here ( even when they definitely do, e.g, taking red lights is very common. You just use your judgement. ) and never get honked. Probably because everyone driving also cycles and does crazy stuff. I think with the exception of a cyclist not using their lights at night and having a collision with a car, a car driver will always be in the wrong here if there’s an incident, even if it’s the cyclist’s fault, so you always have to anticipate them doing something random and drive carefully. Whenever I visit the UK I’m always like, ”OMG I wouldn’t want to cycle or let my kid cycle here!” lol Quiet areas are obviously perfectly fine though. It’s more how there’s not much in the way of designated bike lanes for safe cycling. Think I’ve become more risk-averse due… Read more »

MichaelM
2 years ago
Reply to  Mogwai

That is interesting. I tend to agree that cyclists should not have the same Highway Code and legal restrictions as car drivers, simply because they are not driving a “killing machine”.

Like many, I am both a motorist and a cyclist. As a cyclist, I observe that too many car drivers are happy to overtake me with less than a 1 metre gap between me and the car – which IMO is unsafe and dangerous.

As a motorist, I think cyclists can be pretty selfish. To cycle 2 or 3 abreast at 15 mph when cars would generally cruise at 30 or higher is unacceptable. If, as is normally the case, the road is wide enough to allow overtaking (with a 1m gap) without (or with minimal) crossing into the opposite lane, then cyclists should adopt single file if cars are behind.

Mogwai
2 years ago
Reply to  MichaelM

Yes I’d commute to work on the bike when I lived in England and had a few near misses with cars. Usually it’s because they were pulling out in front of me without checking their side mirrors or blind spot, so as you know, one always has to be vigilant when cycling. People opening the car door when parked on the street, not checking behind first, was another hazard but you get used to having a fast reaction time and anticipating everything when you’re a cyclist.