What’s the West’s Endgame in Ukraine?
The war in Ukraine appears to be entering a stalemate, with both sides taking heavy casualties, and neither making substantial gains against the other. That’s the view of commentators like Barry Posen, Ivo Daalder, James Goldgeier, Condaleeza Rice, Robert Gates, Philippe Lemoine and Antoly Karlin. It’s also reflected in prediction markets.
According to Metaculus, there’s only a 20% chance that Ukraine will control the Donbas by 2024, and only a 10% chance it will control Sevastopol (the largest city in Crimea). Likewise, Manifold Markets gives only a 28% chance that Ukraine will control Crimea by the end of this year.
While Metaculus gives a 45% chance that Ukraine will sever the Crimea-Russia land bridge by 2024, it gives a 60% chance that Russia will still control parts of Ukraine other than the LNR, DNR and Crimea. As for the possibility that we’ll see a coup or regime change in Russia, the community says there’s only a 12% chance.
Of course, these are just the implied probabilities from lots of educated guesses, so they shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But they’re better than any one individual’s gut feeling.
It’s certainly possible that the war will develop to Ukraine’s advantage – especially if Western countries deliver all the weapons that General Zaluzhny asked for in his recent interview with The Economist.
But he asked for a lot: “300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers” – an incremental arsenal “bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies”. And at the present time, Western countries seem reluctant to substantially increase their military assistance to Ukraine.
Never mind 500 howitzers, Germany is still dithering over whether to allow other countries to transfer German-made Leopard tanks. And while the U.S. has sent an unprecedented quantity of weapons, it hasn’t budged on Abrams tanks or long-range missiles. (According to a Washington Post report in December, the U.S. actually altered HIMARS launchers to prevent them firing missiles that could reach Russia.)
The ostensible reasons for Western countries’ reluctance include: concerns about their own dwindling stockpiles, not wanting to get “dragged further into the war”, and wishing to avoid catastrophic escalation. (One might speculate that some U.S. officials actually want to prolong the war, the better to weaken Russia – and Europe.)
Given these apparent constraints, why are Western leaders not pushing both sides to the negotiating table?
Do they think Ukraine can win decisively with the current level of assistance? If so, they have to explain why many analysts are sceptical. And if not, what do they hope to achieve by eschewing the n-word (negotiations) – other than more death and destruction?
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“What’s the West’s Endgame in Ukraine?”
Expensively trying to give Russia a bloody nose just because!
Ukraine has turned into another Georgia, Chechnya or Afghanistan it will never see a resolution.
Just another expensive human tragedy
The US endgame is for its Corporations to feed plentifully at the Trough of Reconstruction
Rebuilding Ukraine will cost over a trillion dollars – which should keep quarterly growth satisfactory for a few years
Larry Fink of Blackrock and Zelenski already negotiating
The new mafia in plain sight
You mention the reason in the post — it is to weaken Europe and Russia (and stop them cooperating) to allow the USA to maintain their hegemony.
Yes, it really is relatively simple……
I think Julian Assange nailed it as well with the money laundering..we know that Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman among dozens of armaments manufacturers have hit another ‘big one’…..!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IGU_7alJ80
The most authoritative accounts of the conflict I’ve read to date have been by the Swiss intelligence and security consultant Jacques Baud. The latest article translated from German is posted on the UK Column website:-
https://www.ukcolumn.org/article/ukraine-the-search-for-peace
I thought I’d fact check this ‘most authoritative account of the conflict’: “The fact is that for the Ukrainian neo-Nazi militias, the people in the Donbas are only “subhumans” who do not deserve our compassion. This position was shared for eight years by our media, which never raised their voice against these attacks. The death toll among these people, surpassing 10,000, has moved neither our media nor our diplomats, who are so concerned about respect for international humanitarian law—but only for certain kinds of people!” Out of the total c 14,200 casualties of the pro-Russian Donbas insurrection between 2014 and the invasion of 24 February 2022 around 4,600 were Ukrainian forces, 6,500 separatist, 400 Russian, and 3,400 civilians. Of the latter the vast majority occurred in the first two years of the Russian-backed uprising – over 3,000. By 2016 civilian casualties were down to 112, 2018: 58, 2019: 27, 2020: 26, 2021: 25 (and only 6 from direct military action, the rest from mines etc). https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20(rev%2027%20January%202022)%20corr%20EN_0.pdf Mr Baud’s implications of an ongoing genocidal assault against a civilian population is clearly false. As was the Putin regime’s use of this propagandist lie as one of its main excuses for the outright… Read more »
You seem to be stuck In some sort of weird old time-warp..perhaps you need to read outside of MSM and get a bit more up to date? The first part of your post clearly corroborates that Ukraine was bombing and killing people in the Donbass! The fact that the numbers being killed got less over time, I’m sure will come as a comfort to the families of the children that were killed….. The 2014 coup was clearly run by the USA, but keep pretending it wasn’t if it makes you feel better….. We have also recently had interviews from Angela Merkel and Francois Hollonde, confirming what Jens Stoltenberg, and numerous US senators and Government officials have been saying….that the Minsk agreements were never meant to be followed, (the people of the Donbass were therefore to be left to be killed and maimed…) they (the Minsk Accords) were to allow the Ukraine to arm itself..readying it for the American proxy war it is now in!… White-wash that for us….. Ukraine bombed Donetsk city (as they do weekly)…again, on Tuesday, killing two people. They commit genocide quite openly on the people they pretend to want to free from Russia (LOL) and have… Read more »
You seem to be stuck In some sort of weird old time-warp..perhaps you need to read outside of MSM and get a bit more up to date? If I wish to try and understand and come to a position about any situation I look to primary sources rather than any sort of third party media (other than to gauge the levels of deception and propagandising that is going on, again referring back to reliable primary material); And facts don’t change over time. The first part of your post clearly corroborates that Ukraine was bombing and killing people in the Donbass! The fact that the numbers being killed got less over time, I’m sure will come as a comfort to the families of the children that were killed… These points weren’t intended as a personal message to the families of those killed (by both sides) in the Donbas conflict prior to the Russian invasion of February 2022, but rather to show that the propagandist claim of an ongoing civilian-targeting / genocidal campaign by the Ukrainian government is an outright lie. The 2014 coup was clearly run by the USA, but keep pretending it wasn’t if it makes you feel better… I… Read more »
LOL!!
Isn’t that how WWI became a prolonged bloodbath? Each side thinking it could outgun the other? This is Russia we’re talking about, not some mid sized country that can be pushed around. Anyone who thinks Russia can’t bring more to the fight if it needs to is living on a cloud.
But nobody actually thinks that. This IS the endgame. A stalemate war that sucks in Russia and that the west fights with lives of Ukrainians. it’s the perfect situation for a western alliance that wants to bleed Russia white. 5 to 10 more years of this and Russia will be like Germany in 1918 or like the USSR after Afghanistan – exhausted and ready for collapse.
And society on our side is being prepared for it. Climate change policies to justify the shortage of oil and gas, gas boiler bans, petrol car bans. etc..
Why would the west want talks?
I don’t agree entirely….we hear a lot of propaganda about how Russia underestimated Ukraine, but by the same token the West clearly underestimated Russia’s ability to withstand the sanctions they placed on it..in fact I’d go so far as to say they have harmed us equally, if not more….and it’s going to get worse for us all, as you say…
And of course, what is incredible is that this isn’t even the war that the USA really want to fight…that’s with China….(through the proxy, Taiwan)
Whenever we talk about Ukraine you have to factor in that this isn’t even the ‘main course’ as far as America is concerned….so how much are they willing to expend here with China waiting in the wings?
There is no doubt that there won’t be ‘winners’, but losers….I believe that John Mearsheimer was right when he said NATO would lead Ukraine down the primrose path to destruction….
100% agree.
If anyone thinks Russia will just walk away from this – no matter how many arms “we” “give” Ukraine they’re an idiot.
25-30 million Russian souls died largely winning WW2.
Forget that at your peril.
Yes, in the main I agree with you both….the West continually underestimates Russia, and of course the UK MSM has, by far, the most anti-Russian propaganda, where they can’t tell any ‘truths’ in relation to the conflict if it isn’t part of the agenda (sounds familiar)!
I don’t think the West has got five or ten years of anything though with which to bog down Russia….without collapsing themselves…?
The question should really be what is America’s endgame, since I suspect this differs greatly from the collective West’s.
The destruction of Europe as a competitor is clearly one of the benefits for USA. The sanctions don’t appear to be harming America. On the contrary, they are making a lot of money out of selling American gas to Europe and in the relocation of European manufacturing.
Any claims of defending democracy are not really supported by their track record of failure in previous interventions.
Unless there’s something else we’re not privy to it’s difficult to defend many of our own actions, let alone another country’s. I know there are complex geo-political issues at hand but as a lowly peasant I’m not really sure what Putin’s doing but I guess he’s lining his ducks to defend his legacy. As far as the Donbas, we gave him an excuse with our constant meddling and as it crumbled looking the other way – again, as a spectator with little definitive detail he looks to be creating a buffer to bolster his Crimean warm-water marine defence. Given the expansion of Western military influence, with an intent to exclude Russia (when others doing far worse are brought to negotiation to reach compromise) I guess it’s hardly surprising he’s looking after his own. Can anyone be trusted atm? This more recent attitude of enforcing certain change whether it’s in the common interest or not, nothing seems to make much sense. Why we’re taking decisions which prolong the suffering is the question of the decade – even now still we’re struggling to admit and expose obvious mistakes made during the pandemic? If this is an inkling of the ‘expert’ brain power… Read more »
We might as well ask what is the West’s end-game in continually promoting, attempting to mandate inoculation with the mRNA product, when the West has admitted the product neither prevents disease nor transmission of the virus.
The West is particularly insistent that the very young get inoculated despite the risk to them from CoVid being near zero, and the risk from the vax being significant, and even the claim it will stop children being a source of transmission is not valid.
And by now well published data shows the more vaccinated are getting the disease and dying at a higher rate, and that tens of thousands (underestimate) are being killed and hundreds of thousands (under-estimate) are being injured, many seriously.
The West being a euphemism for a global coalition of politicians, bureaucrats, NGOs, global organisations, big business, environmentalist groups, charities, other activists and rich and powerful men and women behind the scenes.
If you are going to ask what is the West’s end game in Russia, it is the same as Climate Change/Net Zero, mass vaccination with an experimental product that doesn’t work as specified so it’s vaccination just for its own sake.
Well if I can act as the Devil’s Advocate….
Maybe the war will end when the objectives Putin delineated in his February 24, 2022 speech are achieved: demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and the reassimilation of the portion of the “Russian nation” within the borders of the artificial entity known as “Ukraine”.
?
Well it’s very clear that nobody’s endgame (Ukraine, the West, Russia) is the preservation of human life. We need to be rid of the elites who govern us, their values are anti human.
I Agree, of course the propaganda only allows for the fact that Russia is to blame for the ongoing war..and only they need to stop, while ignoring the giant elephant in the room…the US/NATO and their continued supply of weapons, trillions of dollars in armaments, and constant escalations…all are to be excused….??
….the ‘endgame’ in Afghanistan?…..20 years, thousands dead and maimed, and trillions spent…..and of course…money laundered….
Remind me what changed, who is in charge now?
I may have missed something, but when was the debate in our Parliament authorising military aid and direct involvement in a country with which we have no treaty arrangements? How can we have allies or war aims when we’re not at war?
“Of course, these are just the implied probabilities from lots of educated guesses, so they shouldn’t be taken too seriously. But they’re better than any one individual’s gut feeling.”
If the last 3 years has taught us anything, should it not rather be that anything approaching a consensus should be regarded as worthless – untill proven?
It’s nearly the first anniversary of the Daily Telegraph saying “Russia’s about to lose this war”.
Maybe Western leaders think the Ukrainian Army is poised to push the Russians all the way back to Vladivostok.
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Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am
Elms Field
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Wokingham RG40 2FE
‘What’s the West’s Endgame in Ukraine?’ ‘Why are Western leaders not pushing both sides to the negotiating table?’
Both questions are based on a false premise, that ‘the West’ has any kind of control of events.
Ukraine has no confidence in any agreement that the Russians might be inclined to sign.
The only leverage ‘the West’ has is to cut off support for Ukraine
But Ukraine is awash with weaponry. Cutting off support will simply turn the conflict into a very nasty insurgency……and the brutality of Russian reprisals will show up, in stark clarity, the pusillanimity of ‘Western’ governments.
This only ends once Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored and a U.N. buffer zone unilaterally set up on Ukraine’s border with Russia.
That being the case, ‘the West’ is now transporting all necessary instruments of conventional war into Ukraine to bring return this dreadful, barbaric, slaughter to an end as quickly as possible.
LOL! I suspected for a while and am now sure that you are 77th…. This is pretty much the propaganda spewed out by the MSM every day…. So what you are trying to get us to believe is that Ukraine is in charge..that the trillions of dollars, and millions of dollars worth of armaments from the US and other countries is meaningless? And has no effect? That the predominantly America influx of weapons doesn’t give them a bargaining chip? Hahaha…. And that brutality only comes from one side…(yawn) do the Ukrainian rockets fire fluffy bunnies? Do you really expect people to believe that there are no reports of Azov/Ukrainian brutality..?…..there is, and it’s on-line for people to see if they so choose…along with the daily shelling of civilians…. That, out of the blue…(ignoring all the facts and that history rubbish) Russia is just being plain mean and attacked without provocation? Is this the same non-provocation America and the MSM will try to sell to us about China next…? I believe it is….. America have right out said what it’s about, on numerous occasions…it’s about de-stabilising and weakening Russia… apparently you read stuff so it’s amazing you keep missing these things?… Read more »
Ukraine will fight on, no matter what level of support it receives; nothing we can do about that. ‘…..the question is: how many residents of eastern Ukraine really wanted to join Russia? After Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, thousands of citizens in the Donbas went to a rally called ‘United Ukraine’. Dozens of anti-Russian protests had taken place, but the biggest one, on 5 March that year, saw at least 10,000 Donetsk citizens gather together holding Ukrainian flags. They were opposing 1,500 Putin supporters – some of whom were bussed in from Rostov, which is near the border with Ukraine.’ ‘…that anti-Russian protest was the last peaceful one in Donetsk. On 13 March, pro-Ukrainian activist Dmytro Chernyavsky was killed by pro-Russian forces – the first of many such assassinations.’ Spectator 20 Jan 23 ‘Already during the rally, pro-Russian activists received reinforcements from cars without license plates parked near the square. Police officers did not dare to interfere with this. At first, stones, eggs and flour were thrown at supporters of the unity of Ukraine. Later, the behavior of the separatists became more aggressive. When the rally ended, the police officers allowed to break through the ring of encirclement from several sides at… Read more »
You get that this tripe is utterly bonkers…right??
Okay….so you were too lazy even to look at the pictures…..
‘(Independent news outlet) Vchasno was founded in 2015 and has covered these ongoing conflicts and the attempts to broker peace ever since. An escalation in Russian military activity before the Russian full-scale invasion, however, meant the newsroom could no longer safely operate from the region.
Vchasno’s main audience is located in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. The outlet has covered significant changes in the past eight years, from corruption to social activism that has brought positive changes in the form of new roads, hospitals and schools.’
Reuters
Noah (indeed, everyone) might find it helpful to consistently watch UK Column news as they are quite enlightening on all this (and a host of other things, eg the MHRA, the NHS, the bills that are being slid through Parliament, etc). They look at mainstream media reports but, more helpfully, look at a great many other reports, not to mention having Alex Thomson’s very useful input.
‘The war in Ukraine appears to be entering a stalemate.’ Do they think Ukraine can win decisively with the current level of assistance? If so, they have to explain why many analysts are sceptical.’ Why not listen to Russians close to the situation? ‘“Our command does not need advice. It does not listen to them, and often acts illogically and completely opposite to what is required. They did not carry out an offensive operation on Dnipro to cut through the enemy’s communications between the Dnieper and Donbas. They won’t do it now. And in Mariupol, the enemy left the garrison just enough to order to divert our forces to it. Now it has become more difficult for us. Everywhere, from the Kinburn Spit in the south, between the Dnieper and the Black Sea, to the border with Belarus in the north, the enemy has formed a continuous line of defense. I don’t know what our military leaders will do, and it’s useless to advise them anything … According to the ex-Minister of Defense of the DPR, now one can see a kind of repetition of the same picture that emerged in the spring and summer, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine in… Read more »
LOL! I genuinely will be happy to stand corrected at a future date…if needs be…
Strelkov…to be filed away with Snake Island, Ghost of Ukraine and ‘I shot down a Russian missile with a tin of tomatoes’ !!
Medvedev stated that “a military defeat of a nuclear power nation is dangerous for the world” 20 Jan 23
Both Iranian and Serbian Governmental officials stated that they recognise Ukrainian territorial integrity and reject Russian claims to the temporarily (and partially) occupied Ukrainian regions including Crimea.
Make of that what you will.
But what does Professor Neil Fergusons computer modelling say?. That’s important.
Almost every government policy in the “West” makes sense once you understand that (as the WEF stated in 2016) they want their citizenry to “own nothing” by 2030.