Ukrainian Public Opinion on the War
Because casualty figures are so uncertain, it’s unclear whether the war in Ukraine qualifies as the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. After all, approximately 130,000 people died in the Yugoslav wars.
What is clear is that it’s the most intense conflict. Tens of thousands of people have died in just the eight months since Russia’s invasion began. If the conflict continues, it will soon surpass the Yugoslav wars in total casualties; and it may already have done so.
On top of all the deaths, Ukraine has seen a massive exodus of refugees, along with catastrophic damage to homes, industry and physical infrastructure. The cost of rebuilding the country has been estimated at several hundred billion dollars – similar to Ukraine’s entire GDP before the war (which may fall by more than a third this year).
Faced with such hardship, do ordinary Ukrainians want to continue fighting? Or do they want to sue for peace? Overwhelmingly, it seems, they want to continue fighting. Though there are a few caveats.
Following the first major strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in late October, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology carried out a poll. Respondents were asked which of two statements they agreed with:
• “It is necessary to continue armed resistance to Russian aggression, even if Shelling of Ukrainian cities continues”
• “It is necessary to proceed to negotiations in order to stop the shelling of cities as soon as possible, even if this means making concessions to Russia”
86% of people said they agreed with the first statement, and only 10% said they agreed with the second. The remainder said “Don’t know”. Interestingly, however, the results differed quite substantially by region – as shown in the table below:
In the West, only 8% favoured negotiations. But in the East, it was almost 30%. There are two possible explanations for this pattern. First, people in the East bear more of the costs of war, since that’s where most of the fighting is taking place. Second, people in the East are less nationalistic and/or more sympathetic to Russia (the historical pattern). I’m not sure which of these is correct, but it may be a bit of both.
Can we trust a poll by the Kyiv Int. Institute? Yes. As far as I can tell, it’s a rigorous polling outfit. In 2014, it ran a poll for Professor Ivan Katchanovski – the scholar who’s done all the work on the Maidan massacre. And he’s been accused of having a bias in the opposite direction.
What’s more, the American polling company Gallup ran a similar poll, and again found that the vast majority of Ukrainians want to continue fighting. It also found that support for negotiations was higher in the East, and lowest in the West.
There are obvious caveats, however. And to the Kyiv Int. Institute’s credit, these are detailed extensively at the end of its report.
As much as 15% of the country’s population has left. And at the time of the survey, around 5% of the population was unreachable owing to lack of power or phone service. Both of these groups – refugees and unreachable persons – may be more likely to support negotiations.
However, this is speculative. And even if it were true, it wouldn’t be enough to drastically shift the balance of opinion. (The Kyiv Int. Institute did not sample people living in Crimea or in areas controlled by separatists prior to Russia’s invasion.)
Polling evidence suggests the great majority of Ukrainians want to continue fighting rather than restart negotiations. Since the stated policy of the West is to avoid putting any pressure on Ukraine, this suggests the war could go on for a while longer.
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Fight for what exactly? The Jewish Oligarchy, money laundering billions? Protect the biolabs? Much of the Ukraine is pro Russia and Russified, a fact unknown to Western analysts, but true on the ground for anyone who has travelled there. 90% of the ‘East’ and Crimea voted to join Russia, so in this Poll who is the ‘East’ exactly?
And for those saying fight to the end, are they willing to fight themselves? Or is this more armchair hand-waving.
A poll targeting 18-35 y.o men who would do most of the fighting would be more relevant. And I doubt that a majority are interested in dying in an endless NATO started, NATO funded-war, which benefits the criminal US political elite and its military-complex. Even the Uketopia’s Archibishop is asking for a peace overture from Moscow. Most of the country is quite likely sick of it.
Third question….”do you want to keep fighting if all arms and money are stopped from the West”?
If the answer to that is overwhelmingly yes…then I say ley them do it.
This isn’t simply about what Ukraine wants..the debacle with Elensky trying to start WW3 by firing missiles into Poland shows how out of hand they are being allowed to get….
The vast majority of polls show that people in Western countries want peace talks and an end to the war, so why are we being made to suffer and pay for what we overwhelmingly don’t want?
So it seems pretty simple to me….the West should leave them to their own devices…
P.S Did any one poll the people of Iraq or Afghanistan?..where are the polls for Syria…? Why do I need to specifically care about what a poll from Ukraine says?
This does seem to be something of a change of position without acknowledgement. Two days ago, I posted a comment saying “… the Ukrainians have demonstrated an extremely strong will for self determination. Perhaps they are impossible idealists? But more likely they just simply feel strongly for their freedom and sovereignty. People tend to find that feeling when such things are under threat of being forcibly removed.” And the wider point I was making across my comments on that piece was that some “skeptics” are now reasoning in relation to Ukraine like lockdown enthusiasts were reasoning during the pandemic. It’s all about their own “intellect and rationalisation” of what should be done and what is good for society nothing to do with democracy and self determination and what the Ukrainians themselves actually want (which is akin to anti-lockdown sceptics preference for bodily autonomy and choice regarding masks being overruled by authoritarian tyranny). Your response was: “You seem to be talking to yourself in your own private echo chamber…you are also just talking about some airy-fairy ideal..not the real Ukraine or it’s people… Where have you read anything about ‘what the people of Ukraine’ want? Why do you think you know?”… Read more »
I think you are reading into my post something I haven’t said. I don’t think that my position has changed at all…. Firstly, I am not dismissing this poll, but it is only one poll..and if they are anything like the ones in the UK…? Do you really suggest one poll ‘proves’’ anything? As I said there should have been a question 3…as above…. The Ukrainians who are answering this poll aren’t the ones actually fighting. it’s very easy, it seems to me, to say others should keep fighting on your behalf, especially when you are in the West of the country and aren’t being immediately affected by that fighting, blackouts, shortages etc…the map would seem to show the further away you are, the less you really care… Surely you accept that the amount of aid and weapons being thrown into the country affects the opinion of those same people? So it seems to me that they should all actually understand what the reality is of what they are being asked. Take away all Western aid, then let them truly decide…we would then really know if they wanted to continue to fight or not, on their own terms.. While ever… Read more »
And my further point was that it has always been an assumption that Western aid is prolonging this war (which neatly fits the narrative the US are using Ukraine to get what they want). However I say again, that has always been an assumption. I suggest the evidence is actually now that the war was likely to be longer and more bloody if there was NO Western hardware support. The Ukrainians are showing a very strong fighting spirit and they would have had the same spirit regardless of Western weapons support. Without that support they would be somewhere on a continuum between success (albeit slower), stalemate and outright loss. Of course there are a lot of imponderables, but what is certain is the assumption they would now be all the way over in the “losing quicker than they are winning with Western support” sector of that continuum is a VERY big assumption. So I say again it is an assumption, and a very big one at that, that the West supplying arms is prolonging the war and making things worse for the Ukrainian people. I think one of the reasons this point is misunderstood is that everyone started off assuming… Read more »
You overlook the fact that this war was largely provoked by the Western powers who had repeatedly betrayed promises made to Russia about NATO. I don’t excuse Russia invading of course, but it should have been a predictable consequence of the West’s actions. Now the war is under way, the population has of course largely swung behind the government; I would imagine there is a fear of the consequences of allowing Russia to win now, as the many stories of persecution of citizens by both sides following an occupation show. It is far too complex a situation to be measured by a simple opinion poll. The West and Russia need to negotiate for peace, with the ideal outcome being a jointly protected status for Ukraine.
How about this. I’ll acknowledge I “overlooked” the fact the war was provoked by Western powers if you acknowledge you have “overlooked” the fact the War was started by Putin? You see not mentioning something does not equal not being aware of it or taking it into account and I would suggest it is an unwarranted assumption to speak as though that is the case.
There you go again, saying things that only make sense to you….??
personally I don’t care what you are willing to acknowledge….as it is totally irrelevant….…….
If you want to ignore the FACTS….. one of which is that billions of dollars worth of aid and weapons has been pumped into Ukraine..which, according to you they didn’t need?? (LOL)!
Then that’s your prerogative, but don’t expect the rest of us to join you in La La Land.
Thank you very much for lying about what I have said. I will take that as acknowledgement, albeit indirect, that my argument cannot be countered by you with reasonable discourse, Your pretence you don’t understand it should be beneath you. As for billions of dollars of weapons. Explain to me how billions in expenditure ensured for the US (or for that matter, in their time, the Russians) victory in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan kinda fully illustrates my point about the war quite likely being longer and more protracted if the Ukrainians like the Afghans, have only less advanced conventional weapons does it not?
I’m not lying, sorry but you don’t make sense, well not sense I can understand anyway….
if you have to ask that last question, which is really entirely different to what is happening now, then I don’t think you grasp what’s happening at all.
Are you really saying that you think Ukraine can win against Russia militarily..? Well just bloody say so without all the weird crap….and I can then say, very clearly, you are utterly wrong….
Of course Ukraine can win! They have quite arguable]y passed what Clausewitz termed the cumulation point. And they have very successfully moulded their tactics to focus on logistics. There is a military joke that contains more than a grain of truth, beginners think tactics, the experienced think logistics – the latter being far less sexy but far more important than most realise. By that measure the Russians have been rank amateurs. Having a larger force is no damned good when a large proportion of brains in that force have been conscripted and have the message “god I’m scared and I don’t want to be here” top of mind. Then with your conscription you aren’t multiplying strength, you are multiplying fragility.
The Ukrainians are the conscripts. The additional Russians are reservists, i.e. standby volunteers. Like the Territorials in the UK, they are from time to time involved in wars; rightly or wrongly, they signed up for that.
I didn’t – I said ‘I don’t excuse Russia invading…’
Its been the ‘Truman Show’ war, since it began. Real lives being lost for nothing much other than a silly game with Russia to help cover over the nefarious activities of the elites. I believe not one word that comes from either side.
So whatever the outcome the majority of Ukrainians want it that way.
That would seem to give the Russians carte blanche and the West should accept it as the will of the Ukrainian people.
I seriously question the 5% unavailable figure as an estimated 20% have left the country and another 20% are in the liberated regions.
Part of the problem is the concept that Ukraine is a nation, which is politically stable within the allocated borders. I can’t help cross comparing it all with the island of Ireland, in particular Northern Ireland, which is more peaceful than it was a few years ago. After all, the south eastern part of Ukraine is rather different compared with a lot of it.
Just seen a news flash. TrickyRicki has popped over to Kyiv to see that charlatan Zelenskyy, no doubt with the intent of promising more multi millions of pounds, courtesy of the taxpayers of the U.K.
Makes my blood boil.
Possibly to discuss the failure of the recent false flag….
Blowing up Nordstream, the Crimean Bridge, killing two Polish Farm-hands….
The next thing has ‘got’ to work!…..?
Or maybe it’s to suggest they don’t let the press take photographs of the people in Kherson being abused and tied to lamposts, which has finally hit the MSM…
It will wake some up..others will still doze on…..
Zelensky does seem to have gone a bit rogue from the globalists point of view. Perhaps the days of him appearing in a giant screen above the heads of world leaders are over.
Only £50m this time. But then again, £50 here and £50m there, and pretty soon we’re talking serious money…
A load of comments have been disappeared. I would suggest that the FSU pick a platform with a moderation strategy that is consistent with its professed ethic of free speech.
So if you poll the people in the anti Russian areas they all want to go on fighting Russia. Sure.
Who knows what the people in Donbass think? They weren’t included.
As for Crimea, I suspect they overwhelmingly want to go on being part of Russia.