Vaccine Effectiveness Heads Towards Minus-400% as Death Rate Among Vaccinated Approaches Same as Unvaccinated, UKHSA Data Show
The clock might be ticking down to the final UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance report that includes data by vaccination status, but at least this week there are more data to explore.
Cases
Anyone managing to avoid the 24/7 coverage of the disaster in Ukraine might have had the opportunity to be told about the ‘disaster’ that is the ever increasing number of Covid cases in the country. The UKHSA data are a week or so behind the times, but nevertheless they are now showing a substantial increase in cases compared with last week’s release (details of methodology and limitations can be found here).
A comparison with last week’s data shows that in the 18-80 age range cases are up about 30% in the triple vaccinated, whereas they’re only up approximately 15% in the unvaccinated and those vaccinated with only one or two doses. Thus it appears that this is a Covid wave of the boosted. This trend is most visible in the rate of change of case rate over the last few weeks (data shown for those aged 40-80 only).
Not only are the case rates in the unvaccinated far lower than the triple jabbed, but in recent weeks they’ve also not been rising at the same rate either. Hopefully we’ll get at least one more data point from the UKHSA to see how this changes as we progress further into the current Covid wave.
It isn’t clear whether the rise in cases in the unvaccinated and one or two dosed is because of an intrinsic sensitivity to what is probably Omicron BA.2 variant, or whether it is because of the immense infectious pressure caused by the high levels of infection in the boosted.
The press is full of stories about how the BA.2 variant is as infectious as measles and thus it shouldn’t be surprising that we’ve got ever increasing case numbers at present. However, it seems that this isn’t the case everywhere. For example, compare Covid case rates in the U.K. with those in South Africa.
Note how both the U.K. and South Africa had a pronounced Omicron wave at the end of 2021, but South Africa just hasn’t had any BA.2 variant wave at all, let alone a pronounced one. Omicron BA.2 is known to be present in South Africa, so it isn’t simply because it hasn’t got there yet. Readers are welcome to suggest any differences in the populations of the U.K. and South Africa that might explain their lack of a BA.2 wave.
The relative increase in infections has of course led to changes in the estimate of vaccine effectiveness against infection this week.
The raw UKHSA data is once again suggesting that vaccination increases the risk of infection, and the more doses you receive the higher the increase in risk and thus the lower the vaccine effectiveness estimate. The unadjusted vaccine effectiveness in the triple-jabbed in the 60-69 year-old age bracket is pushing on for minus-400%, corresponding to an infection rate five times that of the unvaccinated.
The drop in the estimate of vaccine effectiveness against infection since the start of the year has been rather remarkable.
In those aged under 50, for those that have received only one or two doses of vaccine there appears to be a slow recovery back to the baseline levels (i.e., unvaccinated). However, for the boosted we see the year starting with low vaccine effectiveness (possibly reflecting an increased susceptibility to Covid immediately after vaccination), then a sharp rise in effectiveness (yet still deeply negative) for a few weeks as the vaccines went through a short period when they at least tried to offer protection, and then a week-by-week reduction in effectiveness that shows no signs of slowing down. Whether this is a simple time effect following a vaccine dose (and the triple vaccinated will eventually recover also) or whether it is a dose effect (and the triple vaccinated will remain more susceptible to Covid) remains to be seen.
A similar trend is seen in the data for those aged over 50, albeit without the initial with very low vaccine effectiveness (this may reflect those aged over 50 getting boosted earlier than those aged under 50).
Hospitalisation
Hospitalisation rates remain low; this is likely because Omicron variants have intrinsically lower pathogenicity. Hospitalisation rates in the younger age groups are particularly low.
The data appear to show little effect of vaccine against hospitalisation for those under the age of 60. The outlier is for those aged under 18 – this is probably an artefact related to the specifics of which individuals were vaccinated and when, but it is possible that Omicron BA.2 has mutated to become more infectious in this age group.
The change in hospitalisation rates by vaccination status since the start of the year shows some interesting effects:
In general the effectiveness of one or two doses of the vaccines at preventing hospitalisation has reached a steady state at about minus-50% and the protection offered by three doses of vaccine has been dropping each week, though remains positive – albeit marginally so for those over 80.
However, there appears to be an improvement in vaccine effectiveness for some age groups, most obviously seen in the data for those aged under 30. This is an interesting effect and may be related to differences seen in the time course of infection discussed in previous posts. A similar effect was seen at the start of previous Covid waves. It was first noted back in June 2021, when at the start of that Covid wave there were many stories in the press about how the unvaccinated made up the vast majority of hospitalisations; there were no updates in the press a few weeks later when the majority of hospitalisations were in the vaccinated. Thus the apparent increase in vaccination effectiveness seen in the triple-jabbed young may be an artefact related to the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised sooner, and, if so, it should reverse over the coming weeks.
Deaths
The data for deaths by vaccine status show a similar progression as seen for hospitalisation – those that have been given only one or two doses of vaccine show an increased risk of death compared with the unvaccinated, whereas the triple-vaccinated appear still to have some protection.
Of note in the above graph are the data for those aged 40-50; in this age group the protection offered by three doses of vaccine is now close to zero.
As I have mentioned in previous weeks, it is possible that the mortality data has been corrupted by those closest to death not being vaccinated with the latest dose (a form of the healthy vaccinee effect) – this would have the effect of raising the apparent effectiveness of the latest dose of vaccine but would substantially lower the apparent effectiveness of one or two doses. Because of this effect I believe that it is more instructive to analyse the deaths data by ‘any dose of vaccine’ versus the unvaccinated. In our exemplar group (those aged 40 to 50) the mortality rates in the unvaccinated are now statistically identical to those that have taken at least one dose of vaccine.
While the data suggest that the mortality rate within 60 days of a positive test is now greater in the vaccinated, this is not yet statistically significant – data for other age groups suggest that the vaccines simply offer no protection against death after infection with Omicron variant in those aged under 70.
It is important to recognise that the death rate from Covid in the younger age groups is very low, and even if there were a slight increased risk of death in the vaccinated aged under 70, this would not have much real world impact (although the vaccinated might find it very annoying). Also, note that these are only the deaths within 60 days of a positive test – there is no information on non-Covid death rates and vaccination status in the UKHSA data.
Last week I noted that death rates in the triple-vaccinated between 28 and 60 days after a positive test are now proportionately greater than those in the unvaccinated. This effect has only increased in magnitude in the latest data:
It is unclear why there should now be so many deaths in the period between 28 days and 60 days following a positive test, but these latest data offer more evidence that any Covid statistics that only consider deaths within 28 (or 30) days of infection will be significantly under-reporting the true death rates from (or with) Covid.
Amanuensis is an ex-academic and senior Government scientist. He blogs at Bartram’s Folly.
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A series of documentaries has been made looking into the fraudulent science we know as virology.
The first episode in the series looks at the most recent fraud, the Sars-cov-2 hoax and how it was perpetrated.
I really enjoyed watching it, the documentary is free and they do a good job of showing the core fraud of orthodox virology claims of isolation/purification are a complete and utter scam.
There are additional documentaries in the series that you can purchase if you wish.
Dr Sam Bailey interviews the makers of The Viral Delusion here –
https://odysee.com/@drsambailey:c/sneak-peak-the-viral-delusion:f
Link to the documentary The Viral Delusion-
https://paradigmshift.uscreen.io/catalog
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/03/foo-fighters-at-the-vax-live-concert/
“Their drummer died yesterday after suffering chest pains”
I remeber the days when rock stars died from over doses because they lived a rebelious lifestyle.
These days they die because of taking government pushed vaccines that they themselves promote.
Mail on Sunday headline: “Foo Fighters star dies of ‘drug overdose’ in £2,000 suite”.
(use of speech marks around ‘drug overdose’ is theirs, not mine).
Well yes – if mRNA jabs count as drugs!
Gene Therapies that can enter you DNA, so I believe – I would say “drugs” covers it judging bu the way they are being ‘pushed’ on the gullible young !
BBC listed cannabis, antidepressants and other “substance-abuse2 type drugs If I am correct.
They were trying very decidedly to paint it as a “nothing to see here” death.
There is always a cover story ready to protect the Vax!
He dissed anyone not taking the untested experimental drugs. Karma is a bitch.
Yes, the Foo Fighters drummer. Aren’t they the survivors of spirited teen rebel grunge rock band Nirvana, who rejected the establishment. And who more recently insisted on concert attendees being fully vaccinated. So much for ‘Come as you are’
Come as you were
Grohl’s dad did PR for a US senator. These folks just can’t get away from ‘the establishment’ no matter how hard they (pretend to) try.
Yes but remember “they had nothing to do with the vaccines”
Dave Grohl insisted that they wee all fully “vaxxed”….
Isn’t it blindingly obvious that the vaccine is the problem, it is killing and making ill those who take it, and yet the bought wh—s in the Governments health advisors and the “scientific” community are still pushing the stuff like drug dealers at an inner city housing estate,
Indeed. Throughout the whole time they’ve been pushing the vaxxes, there has been that actual feeling of being stalked, hassled and bullied throughout. It feels very grubby and dark.
I think “demonic” now gets closer.
Yes, there certainly has been that feeling – and it seems to have been co-ordinated between different parts of the NHS. First it was the GP practice, then when I told them to stop (which they did for a while) the baton passed to NHS England who flatly refused to stop contacting me about the clotshot. Then after a break of two or three months when they reached the end of that particular campaign, it was back to the GP again in December / January – and they completely ignored my request to stop. I only asked once this time, as it had become clear by then that the harassment would not stop until they were ready, no matter how many times you complained.
Meanwhile, my complaint to the ICO in about Septemmber regarding NHS England received a holding ‘we will respond in due course’ message, and nothing at all since. Presumably they’ve been told by the government to ignore complaints like this?
The difference is that the inner city drug dealer doesn’t want you to die, whereas the government……….
Big Pharma has an interest in keeping you alive to pump drugs into you to make their fortune … the same is true of Big Tech with your “personal information and consumption profile ” but when that is no longer ‘cost effective” they will pull the plug. I wonder if they have calculated how much a human life is worth in terms of exploitation and when is the ‘optimum age’ for ‘termination” ? Clearly the “useless mouths” plebs have been living too long! Humans are now just “commodities” with calculated value for Corporations. Their consumption, maintenance and storage is proving costly to the “Planet’, according the crazed Eco Fascists, so they need to get rid of “surplus” unprofitable stocks.The “slave markets” of old will be back in digitalised form. I suppose the Corporates and Banks’ concern is that if the deranged, genocidal ‘scientists “and “Frankensteins” are on a roll and simply carry on inventing now easily transmissible pathogenic viruses borrowed from animals developed in the state funded global Biowarfare Labs, they will eventually kill off too many of the human ‘units’ that lay gilded eggs for these same Corporations and Banks. It is a pity we do not know the… Read more »
Stanley Johnson’s preferred population is about the same size as the population around Waterloo, 1815. If we had that today we would have the same living standards as then….
Undoubtedly it would not bring the world he thinks it would, but a barren dismal and depressed landscaper. It reminds me more and more of ‘The Tragical History of Dr. Faustus.’ As Marlowe depicts in that play the protagonists seem unlikely to realise they’ve been duped and cheated until the last Act, since it is in the nature of evil that it always devours its own.
I’d certainly say that there’s now huge amounts of evidence that ‘something is going on’ to support multiple independent studies. Yet very little proper investigative science is being done (well, paid for by government anyway). Indeed, the response seems to instead be to defund and otherwise remove data sources that show the vaccines to be not working very effectively.
Once again, whether or not they are “effective” depends on what they were really designed to achieve -dare to think the worst!
We need to ask DR Fauci’s friend, Peter Daszak ( interestingly of Ukrainian heritage) all about it – he knows absolutely everything – try a little research!
Of course it is – which leads to the obvious conclusion that those who still keep pushing and adding to the vaccines in the face of the mountain of evidence of the damage they are causing have malevolent intent – if only we had a Police Force and a Justice system!
Is it time to start considering whether there has been a silent Deep State ‘coup’ in this county, or has that been obvious from the start?
So who is really in charge?
I think this is reasonable. That is to say, with the information us plebs have access to there is a clear case to at least halt vaccines, especially for kids. If we accept governments have access to more and better information then their continued insistence on vaxxing despite the known risks has to be attributed to something. Malevolent intent should at least be considered even if to just rule it out.
I was particularly interested in the Yellow Card figures, since this is where warnings ought to come from.
Looking at them this morning, I was struck by the wording of the Conclusions. They say that it is on the whole beneficial to have a vaccine. But they DO NOT give any comparable data to show this.
Instead they use an odd wording – saying that the small numbers of deaths and injuries are insignificant compared to ‘the expected benefits’ of the vaccine. Not the ‘proven’ benefits – the expected ones.
Now, the EXPECTED benefits were that the vaccine would eradicate the virus. Compared to that, some damage may be acceptable. But we now know that the vaccine effectively does nothing at all. Compared to that, even one collateral death is too many…
Is this the first time anyone has heard of the Civil Service measuring things by what they imagine should be happening rather than by what really is?
Regarding your ultimate paragraph, I would beg to suggest that the Civil Service, and other branches of Government and State institutions do very little else. That is why any “planning”, if such there be, is inevitably wrong. Current examples include energy policy, Net Zero, the NHS, agriculture and fisheries, and a host of other things. It’s a perpetual state of residence in La-La or Cloud Cuckoo Land, with activity determined by wishful thinking, admixed with stupidity, gullibility and dishonesty; and to rejig the Maureen Lipman “ology” ad, there are probaly more “itys”.
Will second this motion. As a self-employed contractor often working in the public sector I can attest the total lack of interest in anything resembling the real world. We all dance to the tune of whomever pays us. With the civil service it is the government, not the public who foot the bill. This is basic psychology, and well understood. Hence the billions spent in marketing the notion of public service free of profiteering. This is to avoid that greatest of real-world checks, the market. When the public sector blows a fortune on some white elephant it is always portrayed as an investment despite the lack of checks as to its ultimate effect. I’ve worked in those areas for many years and no longer believe any aspect of the civil service or public sector can be meaningfully reformed, only abolished. There is probably some scope for a very local service, like your local authority cutting the grass in a nearby park. But anything regional or national is usually a disaster; the private sector could not possibly be worse. For dangerous things like covid responses we all know how that panned out. I’m gravitating towards the more libertarian position of near… Read more »
‘the private sector could not possibly be worse.’
Apart from the banking sector or pharma.
Indeed, but both are driven by corporations melded to government. Corporatism is little better than the government as corporations are just small governments with all the same weaknesses.
It’s called Crony Capitalism.
Capitalism is fine.
Corporate capitalism plus the State is Fascism.
Sounds good. Now how do we make it happen?
Another ‘peaceful demo’ in Parliament Square?
It’s all gone very quiet about the Canadian truckers’ protest – was there really 35,000 trucks taking part? What happened and where are these trucks now? Last I heard they were ‘re-grouping’ but their location was ‘top secret’ so that the authorities would not be able to locate them.
And what’s with the USA truck drivers’ protest – are there many trucks just circling the Washington Beltway right now? Not sure how that’s gonna help!
One mind at a time. That’s how.
Start by sharing this site. It is sufficiently grounded it won’t scare people off if they are jabbed and scared.
Go from there.
Localisms in everything seems the only slight glimmer of hope. But I feel a Green Fascist Government assault on our agriculture is on the way.
Look out for their manufactured new deadly Bird Flu ‘epidemic’ and the destruction of the poultry flocks for starters !
We must assume that the long term aim is to drive people out of the countryside into their ‘Smart’ ( sic) Cities where they can be locked up in their Smart cubicles and fed Gates’ GM Porridge through slits in the doors.
They need all the fields for their 100,000,000 wind turbines ( more profitable than food for useless plebs !) and ‘solar farms’ (?) they will require to generate 10% of our former power supple needs. ( when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow that is).
I agree.
But remember, most plans don’t work. And the planners in your examples are not the sharpest tools, especially the real fanatics.
Exploit every cockup. Remind people there is an alternative. Plant the seed of the absurdity of, say, living in Sunderland but some person in Islington making major decisions that affect your life. Why is that, you may pose to them? Does it seem like a good idea? Not challenging government as such, just a kind of better method. I’ve found some success with this, and it avoids tired left/right tropes or conspiracies.
I like the idea of a state within a state. All the sceptics ought to push for an area of the country to be given over to us so that we can set up a free and independent new country – there will be plenty of people of all abilities and skills to make it work. Some have suggested we have the Isle of Wight. I’d prefer Yorkshire myself. And as it’s my idea (sort of), I baggsy Allerton Castle.
Count me in!
Certain areas of our island will be lost to us forever. Indeed, some already are.
Little Britain!
Evidence-based decision making is so 2019.
It’s now decision-based evidence making.
They don’t even ‘make’ any evidence most of the time now – they just come out with confident-sounding but completely unsupported statements and assertions, knowing that the MSM will repeat these and the sheep will believe them.
Exactly.
It has been ‘the facts are fixed around the policy’ since 2003.
Excellent phrase!
So where has the Yellow Card gone? Looks like it is somewhere in the Long Grass!
Along with VAERS it never featured in the narrative, for obvious reasons. Don’t you care about the elderly, you pig 🐖
😉
The latest sifted and inadequate, partial figures might still make interesting reading despite efforts to keep them as low as possible – so where are they?
Anything they seek to conceal, doctor and dismiss is clearly working against the narrative.
Mark Sexton and his team are still collecting more shocking data on the extent of the mounting number of injuries and deaths.
Mark Sexton, Mike Yeadon, Reiner Fullmich and everyone else will be ‘collecting evidence’ forever. Oh – and Tony Blair will be going to prison… one day… mark my words!
I thought Mike Yeadon had gone off to form an ‘alternative society’ off the coast of Zanzibar. Bet he’s really in Bristol.
Bristol is an alternative society, albeit not near Zanzibar.
The Yellow Card system has been abused during this debacle. It doesn’t exist to inform about side effect rates or vaccine safety — its job is to highlight anomalies that don’t fit the existing understanding of side effects / safety, so that proper investigation can be undertaken. As it stands the Yellow Card system is highlighting quite a few ‘red flags’ that warrant further investigation — but these investigations just aren’t occurring. Frankly, I dislike the Yellow Card system immensely. It is an outmoded scheme dating from the days where analysis of paper based hospital and GP records was a massive undertaking that would be impossible at large scale. These days we have digital records and ‘big data’ analysis techniques that could do the job of Yellow Card automatically — that is, we could identify hospitalisation rates for pretty much anything by cross-correlating against vaccination data — the requirement for active reporting just isn’t necessary. There probably is an additional need for reporting of non-medical symptoms (general fatigue, say, or menstrual irregularity), but those things aren’t covered by the Yellow Card system beyond a trivial level anyway. But we don’t do proper analysis using modern techniques — I believe that… Read more »
Great to know. Thanks for the insight.
Worse vaccine ever. In the history of medical science this must go down as the biggest mistake in medical history.
The smoking ban hammered pubs and other boozy environments. But among the interfering class it is hailed as a success, a literal blueprint of “successful” public health intervention.
Absent from this view are the breweries, pub landlords and others who are faced with the reality. Even worse, the ban is long enough in the past the corporate types in the big chains have long since absorbed the narrative; not smoking good, smoking bad. No one mentions that smoking is a legal activity.
I have absolutely no faith the various events we were subjected to will receive scrutiny. Sorry to be pessimistic, but they have already got away with it. There is no discussion in the mainstream about the care home deaths, the do not resuscitate stuff and related phenomena.
I know far too many very elderly people who all smoke to believe smoking is as bad as the experts tell us it is. And they are, more often than not, rebellious types who wouldn’t be seen dead in a hospital. So they are not the burden they are made out to be, in my (limited) first-hand experience.
They also pay enormous quantities of tax for their habit…
David Hockney agrees with you 😉
https://unherd.com/2021/12/britain-needs-a-cigarette-2/
I too have noticed this phenomenon. My father only began suffering from serious lung issues after he quit. Not that I’m advocating, but the last two years have certainly encouraged a reanalysis of my previous beliefs, no matter how obvious they seem.
Yup here I am in Thailand having a fag and a beer at the same time. Luxury
Mistake – no the assassinated covid denying African presidents prove otherwise beyond all doubt
Coronavirus and Regime Change: Burundi’s Covid Coup
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/14/coronavirus-and-regime-change-burundis-covid-coup/
John Magaful did this and wound up being assassinated:
Pawpaw Fruit & Goat Test Positive for Covid
https://www.bitchute.com/video/GlzptLOdQEsP/
Tanzania’s Covid-denying president, John Magufuli, dies aged 61
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/tanzanias-president-john-magufuli-dies-aged-61
There are at least another three African & black heads of state who did not play ball with the criminal who were killed. Covid is criminal conspiracy, DS is NOT your friend, they cover up the nasty bits and appease you with stuff deemed “acceptable”
Yes. Things are getting worse at an astonishing and yet we are only at the beginning of the Great Covid “Vaccine” Cull. That those in charge are still pushing the “poison death shots” is clear evidence of complicity in genocide.
Lukashenko did the same for Belarus. He was put on the regime change hit list. Fortunately he had a little help from a friend which save the day. In the debriefing of some of the CIA-controlled perpetrators, they revealed that Lukashenko was marked down for elimination (just like Yanukovich in Ukraine 2014).
Depends what your criteria are. Some wealthy people might beg to differ.
A great success for all those who cooked it up!
What are you terms of reference for “mistake” and “success”?
The number of “cases” will surely go down when test kits have to be paid for.
Call me cynical but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a U-turn on that.🙄
Of course you’ll be right, HH. Positive tests are too important to the narrative.
But if they do, there will be hoo ha about Ukrainians coming into the UK. Swings and roundabouts!
Covid might be the least of your worries when you agree to put up a bunch of card carrying Nazis.
Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, says he won’t be having any Ukrainian refugees in his home.
How nice.
Will the Police be investigating him for a ‘hate crime’?
He claims he doesn’t have the space. He could himself sleep in a tent in his garden.
Very surprisingly, it seems that Khan gets some things right. .
VAIDS tests next – this is where Fauci came in all those years ago!
That’s the plan at the moment.
They’ll reverse the decision if cases need to go up again.
They will require the ” fake “test” and force you to pay – they already do!
Just another rway of making your poor to force you into their hands!.
So, as predicted by proper scientists the jabs are worse than useless as regards protection from infection, hospitalisation – and death directly from covid.
So far so, not, good.
But in addition, the mrna jabbed have this continuing burden :-
https://www.authorea.com/users/455597/articles/552937-innate-immune-suppression-by-sars-cov-2-mrna-vaccinations-the-role-of-g-quadruplexes-exosomes-and-micrornas
The impact of the vaccines on health unrelated to covid is an entire different book, let alone a different chapter.
Well worth a watch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZlZIXHT0yA
“The illusion of evidence based medicine”
https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o702
Is it possible… being unvaccinated gives more protection? Or being vaccinated increases susceptibility and seriousness? Weren’t the mRNA therapies supposed to make it ‘less serious’? Another fox shot.
A leading hypothesis is the vaccines increase the chance of becoming ‘tolerant’ to the spike protein (ie, the immune system treats the spike as ‘self’ and thus doesn’t respond with an immune response to eradicate it when it comes again (ie, covid infection).
This would have the effect of making mild infection more likely (as no immune response) but severe disease less likely (as severe covid is an immune overreaction, not a viral complication).
At the same time, the unvaccinated will be developing an effective immune response that does protect against infection to a certain extent. This is fortunate, because it looks like the infection rates in the vaccinated are going to be elevated for some time, directly risking the health of the unvaccinated — in this regard it is also lucky that covid has mutated to become relatively benign (Omicron).
Of course, there might be negative health implications of having frequent and/or prolonged covid infections….
There is a consistent pattern of ‘genetic vaccines’ making the disease worse for the vaxxinated compared to the unvaxxinated. In the late 1980’s the first genetic ‘vaccine’ for malaria was released to great fanfare. The drug was quickly pulled from the market when this effect expressed itself. The drug makers at that stage bore full legal consequences for their products so they protected themselves pronto. Whitty is a malaria specialist so he knows all of this.
The drug was quickly pulled from the market when this effect expressed itself.
My how times have changed. Yes Whitty knows about malaria being previously a long time professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and was director of its Malaria Centre when a £31 million award from the BMGF was presented to it in 2008. Whitty may be a Gates man from way back.
Please can someone explain to me the relevance of deaths per 100,000 vaxed or unvaxed?
The way I see it – from a weekly average of the UKHSA Week 12 report is that there were 4465 deaths on average in the week 12 report.
4128 were vaxed, 337 were unvaxed. i.e. 92.5% of all people who purportedly died of covid had one or more jabs.
The UK population (England) as far as I can ascertain has a non-vaxed rate of about 25%. 75% having one or more jabs (lets say contaminated statistically).
1. If the jabs were 100% effective at protecting people, one would expect a significant % below the mean vaccinated population to die i.e. somewhere between 7.5% and 75%
2. If the jabs were all placebos, one would expect 75% of deaths from placebo – in line with the population.
3. As there are more %deaths from the vaccinated population than there are from the %population of vaccinated, then the vax is contributing at least 92.5-75% excess deaths?
Is this a too simple way to look at this or am I missing something?
.
You have to consider the age of the vaccinated.
This is why it is crucial to do analysis by age group, and how analysis that isn’t done by age group can be misleading.
Yes. Hence the table above. the +80yr cohort is dying 17 times more in the Vax group than the same age unvaxed group. If anything…..it amplifies my point and makes the per 100000 argument only another simplistic and uncontrolled denominator.
Makes sense, Mr10Percent.
Now all we need is tree to turn up to denounce your use of the word denominator.
But the 80+ age group is 95% vaccinated (or so) — thus the 17x is about what you’d expect if the vaccines had no impact on mortality from covid.
This is what the per 100,000 part is trying to do — compensate for the %age vaccinated in that age group.
What’s particularly interesting is death rates from any other cause in the vaccinated — one to watch.
More facts for the BBC watching Covidiots to ignore.
“It’s not the virus you should be worrying about, it’s the vaccines” Waste of time, but keep telling them!
Meanwhile, the Green Fascists and Globalists are now working on destroying out food and energy supplies with the excuse of their manufactured Ukraine Adventure and the hyper inflation they have promised us while Johnson can just blame “Putin”!
Zero Carbon Fanatics Johnson and Carrie must be rubbing their hands with glee! Is the coming ‘Avian Flu Pandemic’ part of the plan too? Eggs at £5 the half dozen- who knows? ( “Let them eat Vegan Supermacs” I hear!)
Will it be followed by the return of Foot and Mouth to wipe out the livestock farmer ( see Blair’s ‘dry run’ funeral pyres of 2005)?
Anything is now possible for those who have now seized perpetual “Emergency Powers” over us and now seek more powers to over-ride our Human Rights and basic freedoms.
Meanwhile, the jabbing of our children with useless and dangerous products continues.
Yes, and the back door ‘vaccine’ mandates for new NHS employees
As predicted, when Johnson spluttered his dissembling dodge of a straight question from Esther McVey on the withdrawal of mandates – –the Cabal are all devious, manipulative liars to the core!
Indeed, Sadgit Jabit’s begrudging back track on mandates using the weasel word deployment rather than employment , this was not picked up on by the lying MSM at all. Evil !
The hospitalisation and death rates are so low in all groups that the numbers are meaningless. It’s time to just forget about whole sorry situation and move on.
Time and time again we see this kind of analysis and it fails to point out that the unvaccinated population used to calculate the rates is an underestimate. It is based on the 2011 census cross checked against 2019 gp records. They know how many people have been vaxxed from nims (though i wouldnt be suprised if they are inflated). They have absolutley no clue as to the true figure of unvaccinated (think of the millions they dont even know are here). It can only be an underestimate. Fentons analysis shows when you take this into consideration difference between vax/unvax rates is marginal. With this latest data it would put the vaxxed in an even more precarious position. In my view it is without question that they have, and continue to use every trick available to them manipulate the data to the benefit of the vaxxed eg delaying reporting deaths and then using the number of vaxxed at point of reporting not death (comparing back to time of infection is more accurate still).
I agree — it is astounding that they’ve not got an accurate estimate of the population.
This is exactly why proper prospective matched cohort studies are needed — they remove this worry.
But we’ve not had them. Instead they’ve fobbed us off with inappropriate TNCC studies which are probably significantly overestimating vaccine effectiveness (there are a few studies that have done both a cohort analysis and a TNCC analysis and they invariably show ‘better results’ under TNCC. Note that this isn’t a ‘don’t know which one to trust’ situation — matched cohort studies are nearly always superior to TNCC — we do TNCC because is certain circumstances it is good enough and it is much much cheaper and easier to do. Those ‘certain circumstances’ don’t seem to apply for the covid vaccines (both in theory and practise — an important point is that TNCC and matched cohort studies should agree — if they don’t agree then it is probably one of those ‘certain circumstances’).
Still negative vaccine effectiveness against testing positive in every age group when comparing unvaccinated vs vaccinated (any dose). See attached chart.
Significant worsening vaccine effectiveness (even greater negative effectiveness) in the oldest age groups coloured in red on my chart.
And worsening effectiveness (even greater negative effectiveness) in the middle age groups coloured in yellow on the chart. More than three times the rate of +ves in the vaccinated (any dose) vs the unvaccinated.
Some reduction in negative effectiveness in the under age 18 age group (although still negative effectiveness). And levelling off of negative effectiveness in the 18-29 age group with positives in the vaccinated (any dose) being well over double the unvaccinated.
Still just 10% of deaths within 28 days of a +ve SARS-C0V-2 test in the unvaccinated and 90% in the vaccinated (any dose). Absolute numbers still falling and at lowest point since this data started in week 36 of 2021.
Still just 21% of emergency care admissions within 28 days of a +ve SARS-C0V-2 test in the unvaccinated and 79% in the vaccinated (any dose).
I find the ‘within 28 days’ rather troubling — I fear that there are now many more presenting after this time.
I actually don’t understand why they’re using this metric. Everyone is tested on admission, so it is enough just to report the numbers presenting to hospital that happen to test positive — that they tested positive prior to admission is relatively less interesting.
As it stands I just don’t know if there are lots turning up to hospital that are ill with covid but that aren’t included in the statistics because it took them a few weeks to get symptomatic disease.
Yes I agree, it’s a very messy and strange definition UKHSA use for emergency care admissions. And as we are interested in the relative admissions for vaccinated vs unvaccinated it’s hard to say how that distorts the relative numbers. And then there was the week 4 to week 6 change due to them changing the way they counted positives within 90 days of the previous positive, albeit that seems to have reduced absolute +ve admission numbers rather than the relative proportions between vaccinated and unvaccinated just looking at the chart. Personally I would be much more interested in all cause hospitalisation by vaccination status data but we don’t have that data. Of course there are still all the issues of incidental positives. Personally if we are looking at overall hospitalisations rather than comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated the primary care supplement data is probably better to look at. Of course that also has limitations too. But here is the latest based on data up up to 22nd March. The majority of hospital +ves are currently incidental positives even going on these official figures. And the official genuine covid hospital cases (their categorisation not mine) shows that there are much more incidental… Read more »
Cases, schmases. In the library of my local university, there is a sign saying “test yourself twice a week” – presumably with the worse than useless lateral flow non-test. The number of false positives is going to be astronomic. All for something that is as mild (WHO definition – hospitalisation not involved) as the common cold (YMMV if jabbed).
We are a country of virtue-signalling hypochondriacs. “I tested and found I had covid. It was bad, home with a cough and loss of sense of smell for a few days. Thankfully I had 3 jabs so I hate to think how much worse it would have been without them”
Excellent update as always and good to be on a section of the forum which hasn’t been hijacked by people pretending to be Rula Lenska’s cat… a quick question, would these updates not be subject to FOI requirements which means they have to keep publishing the surveys?
If they stop measuring then there’ll be no information to request.
Do you know if the ONS publish anything regarding vaccine effectiveness against infection based on their weekly survey? This presumably would sidestep the issue that the UKHSA figures for the same are affected by who gets tested and who reports the results.
I had a look and couldn’t find anything since delta was prevalent. They are clearly collecting this information, so it would be a bad look if they are withholding it now.
The ONS has always been selective with the information they release.
Excellent presentation by Dr Mike Yeadon on the fraud that is covid.
Mike Yeadon presentation (rumble.com)
It seems to me that we’re entering, or have long ago entered, “Marek’s disease” territory — where people are seeking temporary “protection” against a virus via a “leaky” vaccine, whereby they are significantly increasing the risk for those who are non-vaccinated:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
Maybe something will change https://rumble.com/vypwiw-legal-watch-former-backrock-advisor-thousands-of-millennials-died-after-vac.html
If the vaxxed are dying at a higher rate than unvaxxed (and seemingly have been for a while) how are the vaxxed only now getting to the same levels of death as unvaxxed?
If the vaxx efficacy is minus 400% that is not the vaxx that is lower in efficacy it is your immune system. Therefore you are 4 times less protected against this particular virus than an unvaxxed person.
“If the vaxxed are dying at a higher rate than unvaxxed (and seemingly have been for a while) how are the vaxxed only now getting to the same levels of death as unvaxxed?”
Also, it is clear that each jab degrades your immune system even more.
“Dying “with” Covid” is a nonsense, meaningless figure – how much Covid? What contribution to the death? How long did it take off life. Why does a PCR test treat a common cold as Covid.
See what I mean? The only figure that matters is those killed directly by Covid. Which the government figures linked to above show to be tiny.
Fiddle fiddle fiddle. You cannot possibly trust the UKHSA numbers now.
we know hundreds of people with covid right now. Runny nose, sore throat, fatigue ages 4 to 87. No hospitalisations, no deaths.
why won’t the gov’t be honest with us?
I see that, tragically, another young footballer died suddenly at the weekend.
When are all of these idiots who believe in the ‘clot shots’ going to question why so many fit young men are suffering with heart problems or worse? Probably never, as they’re the types who the Government and MSM have successfully brainwashed.