The Lessons SAGE Needs to Learn from Sweden’s Anders Tegnell
There follows a guest post by a reader, who wishes to remain anonymous, who has spotted another important difference between the U.K. and Sweden.
The Prime Minister will be given another crucial SAGE briefing at the start of the New Year, when, once more, he will presumably be steered towards a decision on more restrictions for businesses and the general public by the use of models.
If Professor Graham Medley, the chair of SAGE’s modelling committee, takes part, we can, of course, expect that he will only present a worst-case scenario.
In stark contrast, the Swedish state epidemiologist, Dr Anders Tegnell, known for his aversion to lockdowns from the beginning of the pandemic, routinely produces models with several scenarios and I have yet to see evidence that they are presented to his Government with all scenarios expunged, barring the worst one.
I’ve applied, below, the ‘SAGE’ presentation principle to Tegnell’s latest Covid models, created last week for the Swedish government.
It’s striking that even the worst ICU forecast is only for a peak of around 50 new patients in mid-January, which would equate to around 280 in England, if the difference in population size is taken into account, whereas the best is little more than the current figure of barely 10, equating to 56 in England.
As of December 29th there were 771 patients in ICU units in England who have tested positive for Covid, with no forecasts for future numbers made public. This is numbers in ICU, however, not new admissions. While new ICU admissions are not published on the Government dashboard, recently numbers in ICU have been declining rather than rising.
The ICU figures for England are surely the ones that the PM should be focusing on, rather than case numbers, given the much lower infection fatality rate of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The first graph is for cases per day, the second for new hospital admissions, the third for new ICU patients.
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Boris Johnson has no intention of learning from anyone.
Stand in the Park Sundays 10am make friends & keep sane
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Happy New year to those who cling to the truth. You are not mad.
The nest of liars have been caught out falsyfing stats again. If they inflate the numbers of people getting stabbed, it makes resistors feel alone and less powerful as a group. Its a psychological warfare technique used to apply pressure on dissidents. We are not alone. We are getting stronger by the day.
I understood that the target was merely to offer everyone a booster, which was done to a great extent by sending an unwanted text to everyone in the country on Boxing Day. So Johnson could then stand up and say we’ve met our target. Wow, what a brilliant bit of work that was.
I didn’t receive a text offering a booster, and I am by no meams alone, so they failed even by their own benchmark.
Me neither. But I suppose by their own disingenuous logic they would contend that, just by being seen to say publicly that vaccine centres are operating as drop in centres and “everyone should go and get boosted now”, they are offering the booster to all.
‘Sending’ a text does not mean it will be ‘received’.
I got one out of the blue, not sure what day it was though. My wife has had loads telling her to go for her jab. She just replies “No”. I had only one saying I was eligible.
Rather like the pathetically underused mass testing stations throughout Summer and Autumn 2020 while the government/media were claiming queues up and down the country.
Lockdownsceptics used to recieve regular reports from readers throughout the country describing this including from myself as our initially solo testing station lay alongside the link road to the motorway from where it was (is?) clearly visible with only hi viz wearing NHS testers and Security Guards to be seen.
I know one such Security Guard who used to ‘Work The Doors’ (nightclub bouncer).
“Never been paid so much for doing f*ck all”.
We’re most certainly not alone and people are coming over to The Dark Side. In the last 2-3 weeks one of my friends has decided she’s been lied to and bitterly regrets her two jabs. My daughter and her husband, who poo pooed mine and my wife’s evidence, have actually been reading facts and decided no more jabs (they both had two sadly).
I managed to convince my wife to wait at least a year as she’s had the dreaded wuflu and we’re not about to go travelling anywhere. I’m sure she thought I was barking until last week she sheepishly told me her friend’s brother dropped dead 3 days after his jab.
Happy New Year from Klaus….
Multiple stabbed: “Its been a tough year, 2022 will be better”
red rag to a bull, Imo, telling Sage they need to learn lessons from anyone. Disappointed they got honours, considering.
Disappointed isn’t quite strong enough.
Makes the Queen a complete joke for going along with the jabbery that killed Phil.
The Windsors are a serious threat to this country. They gotta go.
Charlie is one of the Davos Deviants. A real nutjob.
His dad wanted to kill billions with a deadly virus and big ears is heading up the WEF ‘sustainable’ cyborg agenda.
From a muted conversation overheard late last night in a pub somewhere in the UK……… In a Eureka moment scientists have apparently discovered that the WHIFF of a fart from a person testing positive for covid19 will likely provide 100% protection against the virus for upto one year! In whispered tones, apparently according to an insider working undercover, Pfarter Pharmaceuticals are currently believed to be in urgent talks with an international baked bean supplier! The conversation then drifted from possible knighthoods to harnessing the power of a fart, the dream of many scientists for centuries……….but until thorough tests have completed over the weekend, the public are going to be discouraged from trying this at home. The Dutch oven technique could be banned in Scotland and Wales. On a lighter note. In an unusual moment of inspiration, a spokesperson for public transport, missing the point completely, said they will start recruiting engineers to unlock all windows on buses and trains immediately. A large pub chain, thought to be planning the release of a new low alcohol ale, to be known as Omicron or Covid lite, said that they could quickly re-badge a range of beers with names to reflect the alcohol… Read more »
COVID may well spread through farts https://www.science.org/content/article/can-you-catch-covid-19-your-neighbor-s-toilet – or there’s the Fauci exposition here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzSgXonr0X0
Love the theory!😂😂😂
Happy New Year. Are the lunatics still in charge of the asylum?
I feel sorry for this guy, despite years of public health experience he is regularly dismissed by people who should know better. Since working in Sweden in the early 2000’s I’ve had enormous respect for their approach to life and each other. If only we had leaders like Anders ‘we’ve got a plan and we’ll stick to it’ Tegnell.
Not a fan, he described taking the vaccines as a “social duty” https://youtu.be/nZRR5zZ0I0s?t=235
I rather expect that he, like the vast majority of us, has been conditioned to trust those that some of us now realise have lied to us throughout the ‘pandemic’.
As a scientist, which he clearly is, I and equally sure that if he had the time to examine all the data he would agree e.g. HART in the UK, that these dangerous mRNA ‘treatments’ should have been withdrawn when the the first 90 days of data from Pfizer was leaked.
It’s a shame that Tegnell seems to have been sidelined somewhat by the Swedish government in the last few months though. His boss in Sweden’s Folkhälsomyndigheten, Karin Tegmark Wisell, is now more frequently the public face of the pandemic response which has recently performed a 360 and now includes vaccine passports, despite Tegnell publicly stating they have no benefit.
The Swedish winter is long and I’m not optimistic we will make it through without further restrictions or extensions to the vaccine passport system. This is of course despite having gone through the first two waves with practically no restrictions and being in a situation now with plenty of people with strong recovery immunity, 80%+ vaccine coverage and much lower ICU rates than previous winter seasons.
The data is indeed presented better here than back in the UK but considering the UK is the “world leader” in nudge theory and the tentacles of its behavioural insights unit extend everywhere, I think this is to be expected.
I think you might mean a 180.
Indeed I did
We can hope they go the full 360 and revert back to the original plan
In Finland segregation has already begun, with ‘the unvaccinated’ being denied entry to swimming pools, thrown out of mothers-&-babies clubs, and banned from entering churches (Lutheran/’Christian’).
Hmmm, denied entry to swimming pools . . . sure that rings a faint bell somewhere. . .
Happy new year.
At what point this year, or next, after countless protests and calling out the mainstream media again and again, both that sadly still affected nothing – does the strategy need to change with us sceptics to some kind of crowd funded legal protest or advertising based fight back?
You forget, 85% of those who are eligible for the death jab have taken it
‘Events dear boy ,events’
UKIP got the UK out of the EU with no more than about 14% of the vote.
It’s not how big it is but what you do with it that matters.
Spread the word – there are lots of movements you can support – Big Brother Watch are currently launching a legal challenge – find out more here http://www.bigbrotherwatch.org.uk.
Another year. Another body count
If you want a giggle ‘Don’t look up’ starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep
A tale of our times
Great film. Watched it the other night. Nothing like ignoring the evidence when it’s in front of you.
Propaganda carefully disguised as satire. It is all a product of the ‘Democrat’ party and its supporters.
Cecil has completely misunderstood this film, it’s an allegory very much trying to “satire” climate “deniers”. The raving loon president ignoring the “obvious”, come on it was like a “deniers” are evil ABC. you only have to look at the main players- ecoMENTALIST number 1 Mr DiCapprio…
nil illegitimi carborundum
Other useful Latin for 2022:
nemo est supra legem
nunquam obliviscar
nemo me impune lacessit
necessitas etiam timidos fortes facit
The UK approach is laughable. I’ve trained c25K practitioners in advanced risk management skills over the last 20 years on the some of the world’s most complex projects. Ask any of them and they’ll tell you to concentrate only on the worst case would mean you would never begin the project. Best practice takes three perspectives: best case; most likely case (as likely to happen as not); worst case. Through some clever maths it’s possible to calculate the most probable outcome for a scenario, or set of scenarios. This provides a ‘pre-mitigation risk position’ – ie what would happen if you did nothing to reduce the risk. But of course that’s not what happens, because we make an intervention to mitigate (reduce probability or reduce impact) of that risk (like fastening a seat belt before starting your car). The effect of this mitigation is then factored in and we then have the ‘post-mitigation risk position’. Of course, you don’t want to spend more on the mitigation than the value of the risk (say, spending £1000 on insuring a car that’s worth only £100). I’m no virologist, but from where I sit SAGE, the Media and Government have ignored this standard… Read more »
I also do risk management in my professional life, although for smaller projects. One seasoned crisis management professional I worked with told us at the beginning of a new project to imagine what we would do if we wanted to set out to ensure the project was a dismal failure; when we were finished, he told us to put these scenarios at the top of the risk log and plan in detail how to mitigate or eliminate those risks. If you look at governments’ actions over the past two years, almost everything they have done has had the result of making the pandemic last longer, destroying the health of more people, and wreaking maximum economic advantage. It’s almost as if they sat down at the beginning, identified all of the biggest risks and then set about ensuring those risks materialised. Or…. Maybe they identified the biggest risks to “success” in their terms were: Quick achievement of herd immunity Cheap generic treatments Keeping the public calm Promoting good diet, supplements, fresh air, exercise and set out to eliminate all of THOSE risks. When you look at the situation in that way, their approach makes a lot more sense. They clearly WANTED… Read more »
Clearly we are on the same page.
It’s the only rational conclusion based on the evidence.
Yet another instance of the evidence being fixed around the policy. The last big instance of that gave us the illegal war of aggression against Iraq and 500,000+ excess deaths of Iraqi civilians.
And a couple of decades later, the principal causative agent gets ennobled with the Order of the Bath…..another shining example of the rectitude of service in public office…what moral authority does the UK retain after this debacle? I suggest very little.
You are viewing the current situation through clearly well trained eyes but missing the point. The government is working to Agenda 2030, as are all western governments, but a crisis was required in order to get Agenda 2030 rolling and the crisis is C1984. Everything the government is doing is allegedly aimed at getting on top of the crisis but the reality is that every intervention is fundamentally undermining and destroying our country, our society – as intended in Agenda 2030. C1984 has provided the perfect cover for every NPI. Not one single NPI has at its heart the protection of people’s health, on the contrary all NPI’s are ruining our health, as intended. I have long suspected that the injections are seriously dangerous and it now transpires that they are not clot shots but kill shots. Part of Agenda 2030 is depopulation as Drs Sucharit Bhakdi and Mike Yeadon have made clear. Once understood from this perspective the government’s actions make perfect if horrifying sense. And for those that survive a few years with the kill shots a “vaccine passport” is going to be introduced, for a touch of ‘flu – really? And to prove “vaccination” against an illness… Read more »
https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-numbers-killed-by-these-vaccines-is-much-worse-than-what-we-thought-dr-sucharit-bhakdi-mike-yeadon/5765883
Check my other posts and youll see I do understand the Reset. Here, I’m exposing the establishment’s criminal application of risk management practice. It amazes me not one parliamentarian has picked this up.
It might be a cheap shot, but the way this whole shitshow has been waved through with very few exceptions, what else are we to expect from this bunch of incompetent politicians desperate to hang on to their seat at the next election and keep their snouts in the tax payer funded trough?
Sounds about right to me. I don’t think hanging around waiting for crowd-funded lawyers is going to be the way out of this one.
By “no post mitigation offset” , I take it as a non risk management person but very familiar with “risk” per se , that the initial “premium rate” set by modellers ( Actuaries would have been a safer set of hands) is not adjusted for “claims experience”; in this sense, the actual fatalities over modelled “worst case” were fewer by many orders of magnitude, but the “premiums” remained eye waveringly “high”. Also, no incentive to reduce the incidence of “claims (deaths following hospitalisation) has ever been introduced – I discount the NPI’s because of the massive damage that they done – i.e. early treatment regimes designed to reduce hospitilisations proven to have worked. IOW a total shambles, instigated by a cadre of people whose upper echelons have been ennobled for abject failure; tempted to say it could only happen in the public sector but that might be gratuitous – in the private sector it would have resulted in a takeover or bankruptcy or militarily in catastrophic defeat. RAD’s comment below about “Promoting good diet, supplements, fresh air, exercise” ( the lack thereof) exposes the UK CMOs serious professional misconduct in public office but especially Whitty – when has he ever… Read more »
‘Deaths per 100,000 were not significantly higher than any time since the war’
2020 has been the 12th mildest year for deaths per 100,000 since records began in 1942. The thing that makes it look worse than it actually was is because 2019 was the mildest year for deaths per 100,000.
SAGE don’t learn lessons they give orders because they are The Experts. It always puzzles me why SAGE are given so much influence about which lockdown restrictions to apply. Their job, so we are told, is to produce and present data about transmissability, cases, hostpitalisations and deaths. It is for our elected (for what that’s worth) representatives to use that supposedly neutral data decide policy. As things stand it is akin to an Army artillery range finder dictating whether or not to launch a nuclear missile and at which target. It may surprise some that the Met Office does not dictate, or even attempt to influence, government policy on climate change. They simply provide the data which the government can use (or ignore if it doesn’t suit them) to help determine policy. There have been instances where bureaucrats, politicians or journalists demand that the Met Office present their data in ways more likely to support their own politically driven demands for more radical ways to reduce ‘global warming’ like banning cars or cows from passing wind ie kill them all as we are forced to go vegan. The Met Office resists these demands but they are vulnerable because they always… Read more »
The danger with experts is that they are generally tall, thin specialists with a great deal of knowledge in a very small field. We assume they possess the common sense, wisdom and pragmatism and are not influenced by political bias but most don’t.
I’d venture to guess SAGE and Co are typical of this ilk.
The Met Office are up to their necks in the delivery of the CC agenda…..
The important issue isn’t just Tegnell – it’s the Swedish constitution. I reckon a lot of people in GB have been shocked at the lack of constitutional protections in this country that has been starkly revealed over the last two years.
It’s a good point, but even in countries which have a very clear constitution like the US, the failure or unwillingness of the courts to enforce the constitution has resulted in the same outcome.
When the scale of corruption is huge and encompasses the entire Establishment, written constitutions are little more than dusty old books in a museum library.
If you scope THW and Del Bigtree’s episodes, there have been some successes in that several US Courts have upheld lawsuits against the mandatory jab agenda – please see the weekly episodes and sign up for updates – ICAN Lawyers continue to have some success especially regarding the release of the “Fauci emails”, a door they are pushing ever wider.
Contrast that with similar SARSCOV2/CV19/NPI court cases in the UK…I do not have access to those data?
Canadian Covid Care Alliance – The Pfizer Inoculations for COVID-19. MORE HARM THAN GOOD! A must watch!
https://rumble.com/vqx3kb-the-pfizer-inoculations-do-more-harm-than-good.html
PDF link to the Canadian Covid Care Alliance Report:
https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/The-COVID-19-Inoculations-More-Harm-Than-Good-REV-Dec-16-2021.pdf
I wonder who advises Tegnell? It certainly will not be Sage who are paid extortionately by none other than the Gates Foundation. $1,902,558. There is also the fact that many members of Sage are current and former employees of companies such as Glaxo Smith Klyne and some receive grants directly from Gates.
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/committed-grants/2020/07/inv018455
Joe Rogan and Dr. Robert Malone, MD #1757
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3SCsueX2bZdbEzRtKOCEyT?si=6c41ce3a560242ff
SAGE needs to do two things:
i) Follow the pattern established by Formula 1 racing drivers and prominently display the logos of their corporate sponsors. This also applies to all ‘advisors’, ‘Civil Servants’, and MPs
ii) Produce only most likely predictions and to publicly display discrepencies retrospectively (asap). Models should be fixed to match reality prior to issuing further ‘predictions’.
iii) go fuck themselves asap.
Is part of this article missing?
I see no graphs.
The graphs are locked away in the bottom drawer of a filing cabinet hidden away in a disused lavatory in the basement of a building which has a sign ‘Beware of the Leopard’ on the door.
The graphs are next to the Vogons’ planning application to demolish my house to make way for a hyperspace bypass.
No discussion on Dr Robert Malone’s appearance on the Joe Rogan Podcast? This is a great opportunity to get vitally important, scientifically grounded, countervailing views on the real medicine out to normies, please spread widely. Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3SCsueX2bZdbEzRtKOCEyT and a pirated version here https://odysee.com/@altmedia96:2/dr-robert-malone-joe-rogan-experience-1093:e
Why would murderous scammers take lessons on not doing their scam if they want to succeed?
The Swede’s were ‘allowed’ to do what they did because they’d already subscribed to the Globalist Vision years back.. massive immigration, vaccine passports, and now implanted chips.. they’re not, and never were rebels..
Tegnell’s star has been falling steadily in 2021.His enthusiasm for mass vaccination just shows that he is just another epidemiologist being fooled by Big Pharma and advising mass vaccination instead of targeted vaccination. This in the ridiculous pursuit of herd immunity by mass vaccination for a respiratory virus. He should have known basic virology that it would be impossible.Tegnell fell for the siren song of mass vaccination like all other established epidemiologists in the world. Why? They had all tried to use NPI/LD which failed abysmally, both “lite Swedish”or full LD.The virus came back in further waves as expected. Pfizer’s profit hungry as all companies ( not in for this because of charity).They easily persuaded the epidemiologists (if not bribed them) for mass vaccination. Targeted vaccination for 20 % of the population is less profit than 90 % vaccination of the population and adding boosters. Spineless politicians just adopted that stance.The epidemiologists all knew the risk of rapid vaccine resistance which rendered the vaccine useless within one year. If they had opted for targeted vaccination, it could perhaps have been useful a bit longer. They were completely blind folded for the obvious side effect risk and long term consequences always… Read more »
A lot of Swedes went and got themselves tattooed with pics of Tegnell. I wonder how they feel about that now?
To me, the biggest problem with the UK data is that they lump age groups so haphazardly. 18-64??? What sort of indicative range is that? The data must be there (there used to be a link to a Government site that did it in decades) so why not publish it that way? Oh I forgot, we need to show 63 year olds with their higher probability in with the 19 year olds to keep them scared.