Professor Lockdown’s ‘Apocalyptic’ Omicron Predictions Have Fuelled Unnecessary Shutdowns
The alarmist claims of Neil Ferguson and his modelling team at Imperial College have fuelled vaccine scepticism and led to needless lockdowns being imposed all over Europe, according to several leading scientists. The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has more.
The Covid modellers at Imperial College have begun to back down. About time too. Over the past few weeks, they have made extreme claims about the omicron variant that cannot be fully justified by fundamental science, let alone by clinical observation.
Academic etiquette restrains direct criticism, but immunologists say privately that Professor Neil Ferguson and his team breached a cardinal rule by inferring rates of hospitalisation, severe disease, and death from waning antibodies, and by extrapolating from infections that break through the first line of vaccine defence.
The rest are entitled to question whether they can legitimately do this. And we may certainly question whether they should be putting out terrifying claims of up to 5,000 deaths a day based on antibody counts.
“It is bad science and I think they’re being irresponsible. They have a duty to reflect the true risks but this is just headline grabbing,” said Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the UK Vaccine Task Force.
Needless to say, these headlines have spread as fast as omicron itself. Britain is the Covid laboratory of the developed world, and what Imperial says right now has global resonance. Its dire warnings are contributing to some European countries imposing full or partial Christmas lockdowns.
Governments are so alarmed by the possibility that healthcare systems might collapse under pressure that they have neglected the opposite risk – and much more probable outcome – that omicron will largely bounce off a population where almost everybody has cell immunity from vaccines or past infection, and in the case of Britain where most vulnerable people have been triple jabbed for good measure.
“To talk of 5,000 deaths a day is a very high number. It is risky to push apocalyptic scenarios that are highly unlikely to happen,” said Professor Francois Balloux, Director of the UCL Genetics Institute.
“What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf. The mood is changing everywhere.”
Worth reading in full.
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Do you think?
Yes, for now. We should enjoy it while it’s still permitted.
Well most days a I do – with my beloveds permission of course.
Please tell me how this poor Doctor Bollaux pronounces his name
When he states he is worried about a loss of trust in government and public institutions – I wonder if he has opened the Christmas bottle too early. Seriously , a loss of trust????/?
If his job was to provide accurate moddeling to steer Gov policy, he would have been sacked by now.
If his job was to provide the scariest off the wall doom ridden projections regardless of the actual data, he’d keep his job.
Q.E.D.
Exactly so. Ferguson is a long time Gates place man and he is doing just what is he is paid to do.
As do the Gates sponsored media. Ferguson is just a Gates stooge.
Was he a Gates stooge when he made his apocalyptic predictions on foot-and-mouth disease in 2001?
Your claim is devoid of evidence, devoid of thought, devoid of free will.
and you haven’t read your facts have you Moist twat name? Bill Gates did a deal with Anthony Fauci in 2000. The rest, go look it up.
It’s a character in Discworld novels.
Whereas Austin is the name of an old, clapped-out automobile. It all figures.
You demand I make your case for you.
You lose.
What is really happening is that the green ideology taught for decades throughout the world is being put into practice, not a moronic conspiracy so devoid of evidence, you demand others make the case for you.
“devoid of free will?”
What you smokin’ boy?
Conspiracy theories do deny free will, they deny all ideas when it is ideas that move the world.
On the battlefield, to which an actual game changing Pandemic might be compared, one tactical error by a senior commander and they are out to be replaced by someone else PDC. It’s the planning/modelling they got wrong, never mind the implementation.
In WW2 this occurred all the time and on all sides. The US tended to recall their failed Generals home for training roles. GB allowed their to fade into obscurity. Hitler forced his to retire while Stalin executed his failured modelers as a lesson
Why don’t Evans-Pritchard and the rest start out by listing the almost unanimous occasions on which Ferguson has got it wrong, often by a factor of 10, from Foot and Mouth to several times over the past two years.
High swathes if the population know this yet here he goes again, same old story as if it’s a one off.
All those animals that died unnecessarily thanks to Ferguson. Is he some kind of psycopathic sadist? Likes having sick fun with humans too. Well, everyone knows where he lives! And if he’s got loads of money and you haven’t, maybe he’ll be kind enough to hand out a few quid?
The 11 million animals slaughtered in the F & M crisis – another manufactured pandemic – were slaughtered on the orders of one Tony Bliar. He does like a good slaughter does Tone.
There is a terrific, but deeply upsetting documentary on this awful event which UK Column News authored. Highly recommended. It’s on their website.
After watching early in 2020 it was difficult not to draw parallels with our current circumstances.
It’s ‘PDQ’ KV.
It’s part of the condition, gets me letters mixed up, and some words.
He should have lost his job years ago, after the foot and mouth fiasco which resulted in cruel suffering and death in freezing conditions for millions of farm animals, and broken hearted and bankrupt farmers. Then there was ‘mad cow disease’, all fantastically over-egged by Fergusson. Anyone of that level of ineptitude shouldn’t even be trusted to do a job sweeping floors. But still they listen to the cretin.
I’ve noticed Francois Balloux – who’s been fairly sane and sound throughout – is appearing more in the mainstream now. Shift in emphasis or has he sold out?
Can you be sane with a name like Frankie Bollocks?
How dare you.
Ferguson is the science.
What? I thought Fraudci was The Science. I know Pantsdown has a solid record, but wasn’t Fraudci the person who invented AIDs?
Technically it was his second in charge who invented HIV but certainly Fraudci was complicit and knew it was all made up.
Fouci was responsible for creating a panic in the US, 1980’s, by claiming that AIDS could be passed by casual social contact like sharing a bottle of wine.
For this he was awarded the Presidential Medal Of Honor, Americas greatest Civilian medal but then Whoobi Goldberg has it too so perhaps no biggie.
Again.. lest we forget one of this idiots
achievementsOh, we won’t ever forget. I recall visiting my parents during that episode, they are semi-rural, surrounded by pasture. The air was thick with smoke and soot and burnt flesh. It was like walking through a hellscape. He should have been prosecuted for that alone, but a complete lack of consequence for his stupidity only seems to have encouraged him to scale new heights of superhuman idiocy.
I met a young woman during that episode.
Fresh out of Veterinary College she was hired by one if the big vet companies to work at the sharp end.
That firm was paid whatever they demanded of the Min of Ag & Fish while she was on starter wages dwarfed by her weeks on end hotel bill, also paid for by MAF.
Check out the documentary made by UK Column.
Possibly the most detestable lump of subhuman garbage to be found on this planet. Despite stiff competition for the title.
You can’t prosecute someone for coming up with an outré prediction.
Save your scorn (and court time) for the balloon heads who accepted it without question, and who then wasted all the money.
“Red sky at night, cattle alight” as Private Eye put it at the time.
Silly farmers – Neil knows best!
Ferfgs field trip snaps.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson
He’s now done that to the economy.
He is a cross between Josef Mengele and Hari Seldon, yet devoid of the ‘talents’ of either.
He strikes me as more of an Adolf Eichmann, the banality of evil. Even looks a bit like him.
Ultimately, he will strike us all, one day, as a ‘Ferguson’.
This moron has caused hundreds of thousands of needless deaths, and the collateral damage caused by his ridiculous forecasts will be felt for decades. He needs to be tried in court for gross incompetence/negligence, causing untold damage, and locked up for the rest of his sorry life. That, or shot. Either will do.
Sadly he “just provided information for politicians” who “just followed the science”, see how that works….. scandalous.
Shot would be cheaper
Confiscation of all his assets and then selling him and his family into slavery for four generations would be more profitable.
Nobody would buy him as a slave, even if Faulci was chucked in with him for free.
What he has done is not the product of incompetence or negligence, but deliberate and outright fraud.
Good, sourced summary of Feargoeon’s overestimates of Rona deaths in various countries in both lockdown/no lockdown scenarios.
In the event of “unmitigated spread” in Taiwan their model forecast 179,828 deaths, or 93,712 with full lockdown.
The actual figure to March 2021 was ten.
https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure-of-imperial-college-modeling-is-far-worse-than-we-knew/
Sounds as “accurate” as the vCJD modelling he did.
A cracking read.
Ferguson is an author on this paper, which is all I need to know about the man: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext Comparative community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza: results of the Flu Watch cohort study [From the discussion:] Up to three-quarters of infections were asymptomatic and about a quarter of infections had PCR-confirmed disease. 17% of people with PCR-confirmed disease had medically attended illness. These data did not vary significantly when comparing pandemic with seasonal influenza. People infected with the 2009 pandemic strain had markedly less severe symptoms than those infected with seasonal H3N2. The study covers six influenza seasons, including seasonal and pandemic periods, … the low proportion with PCR-confirmed disease is not simply a matter of low test sensitivity. … The proportion of serologically confirmed infections that are asymptomatic is an often neglected variable, which is an important component of severity. Our finding that only 23% (95% CI 13–34) of infections are symptomatic is lower than is sometimes assumed, but is consistent with findings from other studies of seasonal influenza35 and human challenge studies.45 … —— If SARS-CoV-2 hadn’t been invented, the-powers-that-be would have enacted the same plan with flu, since Ferguson et al laid the groundwork that… Read more »
I think that’s probably right. Influenza will likely be present in many without them having symptoms.
The problem is their SIR model that then assumes that they’ll infect everyone. While there is evidence of asymptomatic transmission of influenza, what evidence there is suggests that it is unusual.
Ie, from the point of disease modelling you might as well ignore asymptomatic infections, because they’re not ill, they don’t infect anyone else and immunity for influenza doesn’t last more than a single flu season.
“While there is evidence of asymptomatic transmission of influenza, what evidence there is suggests that it is unusual.”
Precisely. Almost anything is possible, but probability is another thing. This focus on presence of a virus as a signal of illness is ridiculous.
Ferguson, and Imperial College , are the globalists well-paid messenger boys ($320 million and counting). Thats why they are listened to. By using the facade of academic rigour, they convert the globalists demands into psuedo-scientific documents that can be deployed by policymakers to convince the public that what they are doing is legitimate.
Ferguson, and by extension Imperial College, does not have a facade of academic rigour, but a very thin veneer of same.
In the beginning, most of the Dutch response seemed to be based on a pre-existing pandemic plan for flu-like illnesses. This has gradually changed over time.
With regard to the O’Mick-take variant, the entire approach seems to be based on the modelling and numbers provided by the UK. Over the summer data from other countries were presented from time to time, e.g. Israel, to the best of my knowledge no mention was ever made of the PHE/UKSHA data on hospital admissions and deaths (for obvious reasons).
Now all of a sudden all the data seems to be the UK data. Taking Pantsdown’s modelling they are predicting here possible ICU admissions of over 4000. We had no more than 1250 – 1300 ICU admissions in the first wave. With natural immunity and the magic vaxx, how can they present the 4000 number with a straight face and wish to retain any credibility? The fact they have to use UK modelling when they must have their own says enough. Pick and mix the data to get the desired result – a result that is desired by this treacherous cabinet for political reasons.
The government appointed Fergusson, still choose to listen to him and sets the parameters of his wild claims.
Yes Fergusson is totally useless and dangerous but most of the blame lays squarely with the government who should have sacked him as an “adviser” years ago.
Feargasm, the Patron Saint of the Useful Idiots.
“What I am more worried about is a loss of trust in governments and public institutions for crying wolf.”
That ship sailed for me years ago, with Bliar’s weapons of mass destruction. However, we neeed to hear the phrase “crying wolf” much more, because that is what we have been subjected to for nearly two years,
Blair was bad, but this has reached a whole new level and is global.
But the key issue is that a high proportion of the population knew that the Iraq narrative was total bollocks. The current situation, and current legislation hows how much we have regressed.
I saw AEP in the Telegraph took some time off from predicting the death of the Euro to have a go at Ferguson today.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/23/prof-lockdowns-apocalyptic-omicron-claims-undermine-faith-vaccines/
(Click ESC as the page loads to defeat the paywall).
Perhaps he is being lined up as the scapegoat for all of this.
Pretty sure the politicians always had that in mind. “We followed the scientists, but they turned out to be wrong. Bad scientists.”
Which would be a bit harsh in the case of some of the scientists. Advisors advise and politicians decide is how it’s supposed to work. The scientists chosen to advise the government were chosen because they would give the advice the government wanted to hear. As we saw with the JCVI, they were happy to ignore the advice if it wasn’t what they wanted.
But in Ferguson’s case, he deserves to be a scapegoat. An entire career of failure and causing the unnecessary deaths of thousands of people and animals.
Go to Jail. Move directly to Jail. Do not pass Go! Do not collect 2 billion yuan.
> As we saw with the JCVI
and then sack those who did disagree.
Scientist who questioned ‘risk-benefit ratio’ of vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds leaves JCVI role | Daily Mail Online
And still we continue the infantile pretence that the totalitarian “responses” have anything to do with health, or indeed any cause.
Rot. Sure, a few low level drones in the rank and file of legislatures may have been terrorised into believing this by the likes of Pantsdown, Witless and Unbalanced, or their local doom-priest equivalents.
But the actual decisions regarding mandatory pharmaceutical inflictions, and social credit scores to measure compliance with them, were taken years ago, at levels beyond mere puppet governments.
Reality is irrelevant to the progress of the New Normal. Those seeking to find any connection between fact and react are going to be constantly frustrated.
Start from the premise of a central world government run by unelected self-appointing oligarchs, using a total information, total control system in which you own nothing and have no autonomy – you know, as described in the Great Reset – then work backwards from there. Then everything makes sudden sense.
It’s farcical and irrational to believe otherwise at this point.
Indeed and when I realised this in early 2020 it was clear that C1984 is simply the cover for Agenda 2030.
Arguing about case numbers, even deaths is largely irrelevant. This is all about the Reset.
On 24 March 2020 I heard that Mr Ferguson had made a ridiculous prophesy. I remembered his name from the appalling foot and mouth catastrophe in 2001. From that point it was obvious that this whole “pandemic” was a sinister plot. Not a series of bungles, but a well-planned and deliberate hoax. He’s been paid well and let him and his paymasters burn in hell for eternity.
I don’t agree it is a deliberate hoax. However, as soon as I realised Ferguson was the “brains” behind lockdown I knew it had to be an appalling idea. The same reasoning applies to Piers Morgan’s advocacy of “vaccination”.
Don’t worry, they will.
It’s all planned.
If I was this shit at my job then I would be sacked!
Yet millions of fools do nicely out of our present world, in all walks of life, don’t they?
Hint for the slow ones: they did not get there by merit!
you obviously haven’t worked in academia
But he hasn’t been shit at his job. Its only that his job is not what people are led to believe it is.
The tool has done exceedingly well with his brief. As always.
Apparently Ferguson is going to be in the New Year’s Honours List.
I’d rather see him arrested.
Proving the Queen has abdicated responsibility for her own actions, with no backbone, leading to the collapse of our societies over the past 60 years.
I am oblivious to monarchy, but they just ‘nod everything through’.
Brought up to respect the monarchy but in historical terms, HMQE2 has been a disgrace. Always put family ahead of nation at every step. Whether it be divorces, drugs, “I want to be your tampon” or anything – family first, nation last. In this sense, appalling monarch. Not happy to say it, but look historically. She is weak.
A constitutional monarch could hardly be ‘strong’ in that sense.
Not defending all the ‘family-first’ stuff, just pointing out the obvious. She’s not supposed to ‘do politics’.
Maybe not, but that just turns the monarch into a tool of governments. Mystery, smoke and mirrors to manipulate the masses and create new generations of ‘British elites’ in the image of whatever seems expedient at the time.
In short, the Queen may be a ‘nice’ person, but she is essentially an amoral elderly relative who does what she is told. And she’s been like this since youth.
That’s no monarchy, that’s moral subversion dressed up as ‘balance’ and ‘consent’. In short, British hypocrisy incarnated.
The whole Windsor clan, and the monarchy, are way past their sell-by.
They gotta go.
Seems about right to me. Look at how many notorious paedophiles are knighted. The British honours list is an international who’s who of degenerates, perverts, and incompetents.
Being knighted is always for services to enlarging establishment rent-seeking in some way.
I bet he isn’t….
Best thing we can do is close down Imperial College. That institution and it’s staff a have done far more damage to western civilisation than any terrorist could even dream of.
Same goes for the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Wrap them up and send them to China, where they’d be more at home?
How about the next protest being held inside Imperial College instead of at Parliament Square?
In further breaking news, scientists have confirmed Brian Blessed has a beard.
Surely the beard has Brian. Moreover, the beard causes Covid.
Gordon’s alive? VULTAN!!!!!!!
If he were left alone in a room with a revolver, he’d emerge predicting that without intervention, he may have shot himself 237 times.
A “Ferguson” is an exaggerated value, as in added time at the end of a football match or in modelling statistics of epidemics.
It may one day become a euphemism for swinging from a lamp post….
Prophet Ferguson (pbuh) is our messenger for The Science.
It isn’t so much that his models are completely useless, it is more that anyone listens to him.
Is it just me or are we finally heading into the finish line ahead?
It’s just you Rich. sadly, there’s a long wait to go yet. They won’t stop until everyone can be tracked AND controlled!
Yep.
A long long way to go.
They have been at war with us for about two years – planned many years before that – although they’ve not declared it yet.
Just watch and wait for dear Tony’s covid jab task force to get going!
Oh Lord, all I ask is just 5 minutes alone with him.
There are times when you question whether the world has gone absolutely insane. The hysterical nutters are now running the institutions. So yes, in many ways, the world has gone absolutely insane.
In any sane, rational society, your Fergusons, Whittys, Vallances, Javids, Hancocks, Goves, Johnsons of the world would, at best, be humoured, given a metaphorical pat on the head, led away from the corridors of power and influence and into a bungalow somewhere in Hertfordshire, sat in front of a fire, be given a glass of sherry and a book, and ultimately kept the hell away from power and important decision-making.
It beggars belief that we are being ruled by halfwits and sociopaths.
Hmm, glass of sherry and a book? How about a glass of whiskey and a gun?!
Well, I did say ‘at best’, so I was being generous.
Yes, given the untold harm that these people have caused, I wouldn’t object to your suggestion. They could be given a choice: shoot yourself in the head or the job will be done for you.
Marooning. Dumped on a sandbank at low tide, out of swimming reach of land, no provisions, one pistol with one bullet.
Best of all about that is that it would be their own free choice, just like having to choose between taking the jabs or losing your job is a ‘free choice’.
Rather than be led into a bungalow, they should be incarcerated and the keys thrown away.
We will not be tagged and tracked like livestock.
we already are.
Yesterday’s story from Sweden says up to a thousand (or is it six thou) have already got their ‘little grain of rice’ implanted on the back of their hand. This allows big brother to track their every waking and sleeping activity.
Coming to a venue near you soon Horse.
Your mobile phone is telling GCHQ at this very moment where it is (next to you, probably!).
But… I thought you were a horse?
They have to keep ramping up the fear until everything is in place for the “great reset”. As Schwab (or is it Swab?) said in June 2020 “The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world”. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/
Surely that is the most bizarre thing to say, a few months into a global “pandemic”? A “narrow window of opportunity”? It makes no sense unless this was all planned well in advance and was always meant to be part of a bigger agenda.
Funny how so many so-called ‘Conspiracy Theorists’ are proved right in the end. They saw through the likes of Ferguson straight away. I think a more respectful term should be ‘Conspiracy Analyst’, and that when you think about it, they are basically doing the job our security services and police and investigative journalists once did…
Back in the 70’s/80’s Ferguson would have either been admitted to an asylum or given a nice long gaol term. One can but hope…
>doing the job our security services and police and investigative journalists once did
Now they’re BEHIND the conspiracies…
“Conspiracy Analyst.”
Love that. It’s so me.