Why Did Sajid Javid Tell Parliament that Daily Covid Infections are 16 Times Higher Than the Latest ONS Estimate?
According to Health Secretary Sajid Javid, there are currently 4,713 confirmed Omicron infections in the U.K. But in his statement to Parliament yesterday he added that the UKHSA has estimated the true current number of new daily Omicron infections to be around 200,000 (I assume in England, though he didn’t say). He added that this represents around 20% of the current estimated daily infections in England, including 44% in London. Note that these UKHSA figures are based on modelling that has not been released to the public.
Separately, the UKHSA has reported that just 10 people so far have been admitted to hospital in England with the Omicron variant (most of whom are double-vaccinated).
On transmissibility, early UKHSA estimates for the household secondary attack rate (the proportion of household contacts an infected person infects) using contact tracing data is 21.6% for Omicron and 10.7% for Delta. This suggests Omicron (incidentally, pronounced with a short ‘O’ as in orange, not a long ‘O’ as in over – omega is the Greek letter that signifies a long O) may be around twice as transmissible as Delta in the current population. However, to put this in context, note that the Alpha direct secondary attack rate in December 2020 was estimated by the UKHSA at 15.5%, while the Omicron estimate is based on a small number of infections and, according to the UKHSA, “may be influenced by improved ascertainment around Omicron cases”. The equivalent figure for “Omicron confirmed, highly probable, probable or possible” is 15.2%. In any case, even on the likely inflated figure of 21.6% it means that only around one in five household contacts of those with Omicron go on to test positive, and the difference in absolute terms between Omicron and earlier variants is only that 5-10% more of a person’s contacts become infected.
New daily reported infections in Gauteng province, South Africa, the original epicentre of Omicron, continue to plateau with no rise for over a week now.
The threat from Omicron therefore appears to be being hugely exaggerated. That includes in the figures quoted by the Health Secretary in Parliament. For if, as Mr Javid implied, 200,000 daily Omicron infections in England is 20% of the total, then the Government must believe there to be currently around one million daily SARS-CoV-2 infections in England, or seven million a week. It’s very hard to square that with the latest ONS estimate that in the week ending December 1st, 891,500 people in England were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Since that is a prevalence estimate, you can roughly halve it to get a weekly incidence estimate (assuming people test positive on average for two weeks), giving 445,750 new weekly infections. That means the UKHSA is estimating a weekly incidence figure roughly 16 times or 1,500% higher than the ONS’s most recent estimate. That simply isn’t plausible and the Government needs to do a much better job of calibrating its data estimates, particularly when providing information to lawmakers ahead of a crucial vote.
What’s more, the number of daily infections in England reported on the Government dashboard for the week ending December 1st is around 37,500, which gives a weekly figure of around 262,500. That means, if we take the ONS estimates as the reality, the Government’s testing programme is only finding around 59% of weekly infections. That means fully 41% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections, or 183,250 every week, are being missed completely. What is the point of all this testing, tracing and isolating if not far off a half of all infections, nearly two hundred thousand a week, are being missed entirely?
That problem is dwarfed, however, by the situation if you take the UKHSA’s incidence estimate as the real situation, as the Health Secretary yesterday implied that MPs should. In that case, the Government is only finding a measly 4.2% of infections each week (using the daily dashboard figure for the most recent week of 42,000 a day or 294,000 a week). Of course, the UKHSA estimate is totally implausible and it is disgraceful that it was presented to Parliament at all. But assuming it to be true, it would mean the test and trace system was even more completely useless.
In truth, while test and trace is pointless even on ONS estimates, as it misses over 40% of infections, it isn’t as bad as the ludicrous UKHSA estimate would imply. It is a scandal that the UKHSA’s obviously wayward, inflated modelling was presented to MPs ahead of today’s vote.
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Because he is a liar. And sadly, he merely reflects the bulk of the political and managerial class.
Which is Bojo’s case is very bulky.
Why will so few Tories rebel on Plan B today?
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/why-will-so-few-tories-rebel-on-plan-b-today/
Julian Mann
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You took the words out of my mouth.
Although I had been going to say because he’s a fucking liar. But you get the drift.
In selected countries. The South Africans are very clear about hoe mild it generally is, killing around 25 times fewer people than delta. Why must poor Sajid sell so many pork pies? Is his Chase Manhattan pension not enough?
The threat from SARS2 IS hugely exaggerated.
I hesitate to post this but as it is from Dr Robert Malone…….
https://noqreport.com/2021/12/14/is-omicron-another-lab-creation/
I have no knowledge to judge his comments about the nature of the Omicron mutations, synchronous and non synchronous; it appears to have some validity.
Exactly; who cares how many ‘cases’ there are. What is critical data is that there are few hospitalisations and nearly zero deaths (I would put money on any deaths being a statistical convenience of someone already dying but tested +)
Even the sheeple are starting to wake up to the scam
Perhaps, just perhaps, Savid Jabbid is telling lies to suit his masters’ agenda?
Which implies that he is a puppet. I have long thought h resembles the villain known as “The Hood” in the 1960s TV series “Thunderbirds.”
Like so many current world leaders and high ranking government members he is a member of the World Economic Forum, coincidence ?
Need you even ask?
More like the ‘Quark’ from Star Trek
He is not very good at lying and stumbles on his words when doing so. He has been “stumbling” a lot lately.
For goodness’ sake what a silly question.
Anyway, who cares how many “infections” of one “variant” or another there are?
In the U.K., we are currently doing over a million covid tests PER DAY (1.3 million according to the government website).
Are we really supposed to believe that we are missing that many infections?
(I have only ever had one test – it was done when I was admitted to hospital to access care for non covid illness).
The cost is unbelievable.
its got to be 100 million a a day on tests alone and that doesn’t include the test centers.
Kerching!!!
Guess who holds shares in all these private genome sequencing labs, Tory MP’s.
I thought it was all owned by Matt Hancock’s friends and neighbours
He’s got shares in their businesses.
Is Beijing Weaponizing Your DNA?
I wondered what they were doing with these people’s DNA. Mind if I skip on the tests?
Tests have been increasing for the last 6 weeks. Historically, the average positivity rate seems to be 5%, give-or-take a bit, so they can get as many “cases” as they want
Cases have risen in line with the “exponential” increase in tests. Even President Trump realised the stupidity of ascribing any meaning to that last summer. SAGE is less sage. “Hospitalisations” may have increased marginally to the level of this time last month, but given the definitions, any large increase in “cases” will eventually filter through into hospital stats as we have seen consistently (and eventually deaths, as the sole spurious Omicron death shows, two weeks before Omicron could possibly have caused it). Meanwhile, the only vaguely solid ONS statistic, deaths, have continued to drop – and hence they are not featured in the propaganda. We’ve been familiar with casedemic features for 2 years now, and the current situiation has all the usual hallmarks. The only anomaly is that real deaths are not yet as high as you’d expect in December, most likely suggesting high immunity. On the bigger picture, we have a country exhibiting sheer blind panic, as in running towards the machine guns and barbed wire. It has been deliberately induced by an evil leadership that decided that if instilling abject terror encouraged people to get vaccinated without informed consent, then ramping it up to psychic meltdown will push… Read more »
The death stats have always been the no 1 lie. Overall excess death is the only true guise we have and that was only exceptional in April 20, less so last Dec/Jan and largely caused by mass hospital spread of virus.
The symtomless cases is the other foundational lie of the panicdemic.
A small correction to your post : did you hear about 2 years worth of Midazolam shipped in to ‘aid’ the vulnerable. Mass hospital spread of the virus is bollocks. It was achieved by mass testing with PCR.. if you breathed you were classed as diseased..
About 68,000 excess deaths last year weren’t they (after exceptionally low deaths in 2019). And tens of thousands of those were caused by lockdowns etc.
Oh, like those rabbits in Watership Down who go tharn. Who would have thought that so many people would behave like rabbits in the headlights? ( Though perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised…).
Who are these 1.3m – why do they do it?
good question, I suspect some are asked to for work, others maybe are just afraid (propaganda works after all).
It’s a conundrum of their own making, as usual, because it’s either yet more threat inflation, or, if the Javid estimate is accurate, this “tidal wave” is so devastating that the vast majority of people it strikes don’t even realise they’re wet.
What are your views on the most likely and the most desirable of these scenarios associated with the Tory backbench ‘rebellion’?
A) Nothing changes
B) Further measures are less severe to avoid the size of the rebellion increasing
C) Johnson is replaced
D) The government falls
E) Something else, please specify
…or is it all irrelevant as the agenda will be taken forward whatever?
Incidentally, why are there so few Labour rebels?
This pandemic is a socialists wet dream, it gives them unimaginable power & control.
Yes, but surely there would be a few who still have a conscience?
Blair started the purge of consciences from Labour as it morphed into the party of the middle manager.
party of the middle manager and Cultural Marxism.
Weren’t there a few who objected last time? 15 labour voted against the introduction of the tier system. In all this pantomime I forget what they have voted on and what was just waved through.
But did they object because it didn’t go far enough?
my MP is against all restrictions (in email correspondence) but voted for all of them until now
he is a ‘new rebel’ – which shows he thinks rebelling is now better for his career than worse. it shows the government is losing authority
I think it is very likely Bunter will go early next year. The breaking of the rules will stick. Some Tory MP’s were losing patience last year but the vaccine roll out brought them back.
I see this booster panic as an attempt to repeat that. Won’t work this time, people are seeing through it. The MSM comment boards are very different this year.
… E something else….like a row of traitors swinging from Tower Bridge?
Now that’s a spiffing idea.. posher than a lamppost..
Heads on pikestaffs. Even better than lamp posts and piano wire.
In IRAQ there was a place called Execution Square. Maybe Trafalgar Square could be repurposed?
This shows how angry and infuriated I am with this mis-government
I have some knitting needles if anyone wants to knit!!!
I suggest Vallance, Whitty, Michie, Ferguson, plus the PM Hancock and Javed.
My own answers:
Most likely A or C
Most desirable B – to buy us some time for the narrative to collapse here or elsewhere before we sink too far into the abyss
B is probably the best we an hope for (and that’s being optimistic). If Johnson is pushed out any replacement is likely to be worse than him, and if the government falls we could end up with Starmer, who is definitely worse.
I suggest a good clue can be found by looking at the Glowbull Worming / Climate Change / Crisis / Emergency / Apocalypse scam, to which the Covid scam owes a great deal. Don’t forget that the Climate scam is usually taken to date from 1988 and has certainly been burgeoning ever since. Same dodgy / incompetent / venal / “scientists” – as hand picked by our Beloved Leaders. Same interesting share holdings, same brown envelopes. Same sort of “solutions” which don’t work to “problems” that cannot be clearly shown to exist. Same treatment of those who point out glaring problems with the ‘official’ narrative. You are either a “Climate Denier” (just like a ‘Holocaust Denier’) or now you are an “Anti-Vaxxer” (even if you’ve been jabbed three times.) Same Media hoping to promote their Champagne Socialist agenda and pick up chunks of taxpayers’ money for the propaganda mission. Same Policy based Evidence making. Same evil barstewards (Soros, Gates etc) pulling strings. So, although the Covid scam is a bit like Climate Change on speed. Yes, a lot of people have died with Covid, (whereas NO-ONE has ever died from ‘Climate Change’). Xi Jinping intended to kill off the economically… Read more »
Most likely:
F) It’s all irrelevant as the agenda will be taken forward whatever
Most desirable:
E) The lockdown is over and we can get on with our lives FOR GOOD.
(-Sigh- very improbable)
Johnson is replaced by someone like Sir Graham Brady. He tells the so called “experts” to go fxxx themselves, opens the country up and we live with the virus, acquiring immunity and resistance little by little..
Why? Because 4,100 doesn’t sound scary enough. 200,000 is a big scary number which the PsyOps Unit have calculated will terrify the sheeple into getting a 3rd jab.
Exaggerated, lying? To quote the great Victorian crime novelist Arthur Conan Doyle
‘No shit, Sherlock’
(Did he really say that, or is it one of those myths like “lashings of ginger beer (actually from a spoof)?).
there are 50k +ve tests a day for covid (all variants)
Zoe has 80k per day symptomatics
so there are probably 200k per day new infections (with or without symptoms). thats 20 million over the last 3 months + previous waves = herd immunity
you can tell we at herd immunity because R has been about 1.0 for 3 months – ie if you get covid you barely manage to spread it to who you live with. and that’s with the winter upon us
20% are omicron ->40k per day
we can see from the graphs that infections are rather flat over the last few weeks (any increase just mirrors increased testing). so its clearly not doubling every 2 to 3 days
2nd week of every year are peak deaths for respiratory illnesses
so peak infections are around the end of the year
I suspect in a couple of weeks numbers won’t have gone up as predicted and more likely on the way down as we move into the new year. they will claim success for plan B.
fact is – we’ve almost all had it and this new variant is about as dangerous as the previous ones – ie not at all unless you are mortally ill
Looking at with-covid deaths and the Gompertz curve I wonder can we estimate how much older you are “with-covid” than before/recovered in order to properly gauge risk.
One thing is certain, COVID is NOT the cause of death in most deaths.
we are measuring old age deaths as covid. that’s ok if we put it in context that 200k people die of colds EVERY year
but more sensible to have old age as a separate category. colds don’t really kill people and covid may have killed 5% of the 95% quoted
What I mean is there seems to be a consistent gap across all ages implying that covid temporarily (and probably the jabs permanently but to a lesser extent) boosts your risk of death as if you were x years older.
I’m trying to work out what X is.
its clearly not doubling every 2 to 3 days
This is one of the usual COVID horsetrader’s tricks: Increases of small numbers cause these to double quickly. The implied assertion that this will go on forever is obviously wrong, otherwise, the so-called pandemic had been long over before the 64th day of it.
The attached image shows instances of doubling while counting from 1 – 500, with every jump meaning “it doubled again”.
A bit of a light bulb moment. They need this to bring in the vaccine passports, that’s why they are frantically pushing the booster, because at the moment you count when double jabbed, in a few weeks they will say, everyone has had a chance of the booster, so now its passports. Its also why they are doing children, a 16 y/o is 18 soon, so they get the coverage they need. Its so obvious.
Yet it’s going to backfire spectacularly. My 21 year old is one of 3 100% unjabbed on his apprenticeship course of about 12. They just worked out that as they are behind in the process they will never catch up enough to qualify for a pass, so no point trying. Thanks Boris et al, great job. I did the legwork telling him to wait a bit now they’ve sealed the deal 😀
The propaganda machine has been dialled up to the max.
Look at all these heroic patriots queuing up to “do their bit” and get their booster shot so we can “defeat omicron”. Why is this language not banned by Ofcom? You cannot “beat” a virus like this.
The mask wearing is off the scale. The population has been spooked yet again. We were supposed to be having some of our little boys friends round yet 2 have cancelled because they are “vulnerable families”. Jesus wept.
School nativity play cancelled. Why? Where is the government diktat banning them!?
We have lost the plot!
We will be at Plan C before the New Year, because that is what “they” want. I hope this is all western governments frightened of being the worst at “protecting” their electorate. Any other reason would be really uncharitable. I never trusted this thing from late-April 2020.
This is guaranteed.
Anything to get the jabs in arms and the vaccine passports in place.
Ah but it’ll only be temporary they will day and the sheep will say well if it’s what it takes to get our freedoms back and oh it’s only a small inconvenience.
And then watch as the covid pass morphs into a pass for your benefits or your ID to purchase beer…
They are just slowly chipping away yet the sheep cannot see it. Little by little….
‘If it’s what it takes to get our freedom back’. They are flushing there freedom down the toilet.
Well they’ll be no bog roll to flush soon.
You summed it up perfectly. Tyrannical regimes (of which I think this is clearly one; nicely facilitated by a democratic system which is broken) gain control and power one little step at a time. https://youtu.be/16uBwZxtzi0
School has told the pupils to make sure they take all their booms home for Christmas. Maybe an innocent remark, or have headteachers been tipped off?
What is a boom?:
And still no mention anywhere of the most infectious place in the country at the moment – the local vaccination centre.
I can’t work out whether this is an inadvertently brilliant idea to get as many people as possible sick for Christmas, or complete myopia.
Or perhaps I’m the only one seeing this. Difficult to tell any more.
There’s a new Matrix movie out for Christmas. Perhaps somebody is trying to tell us something.
If you were going to get a booster why on earth would you wait in the cold? I don’t understand. Why not just wait til the panic has died down?
It would make far more sense to do the jabs out in the cold in a marquee with the sides up. That would guarantee the correct level of ventilation.
virtue signalling
Because they are panicking. Listen to radio 5 if you can bare it.
I had to turn off commercial radio the other day when the propaganda came on.
Oh, they can still make movies? Great!
Some movie director really ought to do a proper job on this whole shambles…
nice graph to play with
excess mortality from before the pandemic til now
sweden better than almost all -the few with lower excess mortality are immunilogically naive – ie norway and finland – haven’t even had their first wave yet. germany missed the first wave
but they will get there
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=USA~ISR~SWE~CHE~GBR~DEU~NOR
hardest lockdown country in the world – Peru – can barely be on the same graph
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?tab=chart&country=USA~ISR~SWE~CHE~GBR~DEU~NOR~AUT~FIN~PER
lockdowns kill
I struggle to understand what greater than 100% excess mortality means.
100% is double the number of people died as history would suggest
0% you get the deaths you expect
Even if any of these ‘predictions’ were close to accurate, surely by now the entire population would have herd immunity twice over. I remember thinking last year, when and if we get to the point that the total number of ‘infections’ exceeds the size of the population, will anyone in the media even mention it? LOL.
Can we please stop taking anything about these variants seriously? For example, I remember reading repeatedly that Delta was far more transmissible than the Wuhan strain, but according to these figures Delta is less transmissible than Wuhan and conveniently far less transmissible than Omicron. Treating the variants as if they are important, and poring over stats related to them, just gives the whole charade credibility.
And another thing: When the existence of Omicron was revealed to the world how could they possibly know that that variant would start to take over and become dominant? Why couldn’t it be some other variant? The whole story is ultra fishy.
Indeed. Have you ever heard people demanding details of which variant of flu they have caught? Or in the case of colds wanting to know which virus it is (could be any one of various coronaviruses and rhinoviruses).
Because he’s been getting away with lying through his teeth for nearly two years, they all have. This should not surprise anyone any more.
I see why he was brought back now. Internationalist central banker on board for digital currency/ social credit app. No scruples just sees numbers on a spread sheet.
Yes.. banksters everywhere you look.. there’s even one running the BBC now..
Plain, old-fashioned lying, which will, as usual, be reported uncritically by the joke known as “MSM”. It will then be taken up by the millions of gormless drones.
Have you noticed how the MSM are reporting that the necessity for a 3rd jab is necessitated by the “fact” that 2 jobs are insufficient to stop “infection”? So the fuck what? This virus is dangerous to a tiny minority of the population and yes, for coviphylliacs, you could be unlucky and be an outlier who gets seriously ill (as is the case with ANY virus) – but using the term “infection” conflates both scenarios, one of which is very likely, the other, much more improbable. Are we moving to a situation where we see the common cold as a public health emergency? What we now see is yet another shift in the Covid narrative, from “we must protect the NHS” (March 2020) to “no-one must get ill from Covid” (Autumn 2020) to “no-one must get Covid at all” (now). And all of this goes on with no serious questions being posed by journalists or by the sodding Labour party who are supposed to in opposition. Beggars belief
and what’s in the jab?
Exactly the same stuff that failed twice.
But they try to imply differnently by referring to them as ‘boosters’ rather than ‘number 3 of the two pricks which the government assured you would be sufficient’
Plus, conveniently, when OMG appeared, they had the ‘boosters’ already there to begin jabbing
This is not about a virus, why don’t journalists do their job and go investigate what it is about
Mainstream journalists stopped investigating anything years ago. Why bother when you can just parrot what others are saying and still get paid?
Dr Robert Malone, inventor of MRNA vaccination, on why you shouldn’t vac your children.
Very powerful and compelling; sadly both children are >18 and responsible for their own decisions and having very great difficulty reconciling the conflicts between “living their life” and having “a life to live”.
They are lying and they know we know they are lying but they don’t care because they are pumping cash in to keep everyone quiet
‘Why Did Sajid Javid Tell Parliament that Daily Covid Infections are 16 Times Higher Than the Latest ONS Estimate?’
Because he’s a duplicitous bastard.
He’s a fucking liar
Propaganda team has responded to the point frequently made here, as to why a booster will work magic when the first two spikings are clearly useless.
BBC has wheeled out Profs Jonathan Ball and Danny Altmann, Nottingham and Imperial College, to provide the Ladybird guide to virology and booster bollocks. Guys, you should be utterly ashamed of yourselves.
Either Javid has gone native or he has been got at. I wouldn’t like to guess which of these possibilities is correct.
I’ve never seen a politician at the dispatch box so scared for his life. He made his bed with the devil a long time ago.
Come on guys, he is a placement for the New World Order mob, you known “you will own nothing and be happy”
BTW, that bit about pronouncation of this Moronic new Chinese variety from Africa, has me puzzled.
All my working life I have called ‘it’ Ohms Law. (I=V/R).
Even when we had a dog we called her favourite diet OOOmeega Rings.
Ah well you live and learn.
200,000 infections, 10 Hospitalisations, 1 death, Seems a lot safer and effective than the vaccine
Very good broadcast from UK Column here who are always excellent and keep their fingers on the pulse and their eyes firmly on the govenment. Has a great clip of Steve Baker MP too who has a strong message delivered with passion and good energy:
UK Column News – Monday 13th December 2021
https://www.bitchute.com/video/nVNb8D1nIW3f/