More Restrictions May Be Required This Winter, Says Professor Ferguson
Professor Neil Ferguson is at it again. He predicts that a full lockdown will not be necessary this winter, but that the reintroduction of some forms of restrictions will be, warning that “we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”. The Times has the story.
The Imperial College scientist said that there was no “reason to panic” but urged people to be cautious about social contact.
He said it was “critical we accelerate the booster programme” with millions of eligible older people yet to have a top-up jab despite concerns about waning immunity.
Last year hospital admissions were doubling every 10 days. At present, the rate is about five weeks and some believe outbreaks in schools will burn out before then, causing cases to fall again.
Ferguson told Today on BBC Radio 4: “I think we need to be on the case, and we do need to prioritise the [booster] vaccination programme but we’re not in the same position as last year.”
He added: “I don’t think we’re looking at another lockdown… the worst case here are demands on the NHS… it’s very unlikely we’ll see anything like the levels of deaths we saw last year, for instance.
“Coming into the winter, there may be a plan B which needs to be implemented, which involves some rolling back of measures, but I doubt that we’ll ever get close to the lockdown we were in in January of this year.”
The Government’s official ‘Plan B’ involves the return of working from home and compulsory masks, plus the introduction of vaccine passports. Ministers have been confident that this will not be needed but concern has been mounting as cases rise towards 50,000 a day.
“People need to be aware that we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic – for the last three or four months we’ve been up at well over 1% of the population infected at any point in time,” Ferguson said.
He said the Government was “very clear that it wanted to move away from social distancing measures, but it’s notable, clearly, that most western European countries have kept in place more control measures, vaccine mandates, mask-wearing mandates, and tend to have lower case numbers and certainly not case numbers which are going up as fast as we’ve got”.
Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, said he was not “overly worried” by case numbers, pointing out: “We’re doing far more testing of children than most or all European countries and at least 50% of our cases are in children, mostly teenagers.” …
Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next, given huge uncertainties about the number of unvaccinated people, how fast immunity wanes and how people will behave over the winter.
Worth reading in full.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
“Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next…”
They’ve never known.
We need to show our resistance to the likes of Ferguson as much a possible
Friday 22nd October 11am
Yellow Boards Event – Stand by the Road
Tesco Superstore
17 County Ln, Warfield, Bracknell RG42 3JP
Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Rebels at Roundabouts
Friday 22nd October, 5-6.30pm
Blackheath Gate, Greenwich Park
Beowulf is so right, but more so we need to show our greater relevance than our supine Parliament.
Perhaps they are getting it even more wrong?
It seems as ever when the models and reality diverge the reality needs changing. this is post-normal science.
Maybe he is getting scared of his reputation.
LOL what reputation? between buggy code, p*sspoor assumptions and sneaking out to bonk his mistress he shredded it months ago
Why the fuck is this charlatan still given airtime? Oh yes because he’s a useful idiot and fully in step with “The Narrative”
It’s simple, he is one of Gate’s mates.
Yes, he is director of the GatesGavi funded Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium which is paid huge bucks essentially to drum up business https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/hosted-initiatives-and-groups/vaccine-impact-modelling-consortium/
He’s also Director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute at Imperial (sic) College.
On the subject of our global overlord Gates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNAwUxZ5nfw
Gates, Schwab, Von de Leyen, and all the rest of the puppets and useful idiots.
Says it all in one handy graphic.
Simple, putting on the show a bumbling idiot hated by everybody brings more clicks/views/advertisement revenue. We have a similar clown down here in Germany, fond of warning about apocalypse (surname starts with L) without any pause – and he gets the exact same treatment by media (there’s been hardly a single day on which he did not give a doomsday interview to someone, and his greatest hope is to become the next health minister).
For crying out loud go away Ferguson.
I had to laugh at this one :
“Modellers are finding it increasingly difficult to know what will happen next,”
… given that the accuracy has always been around zero.
I guess that we need to know that the Imperial Clown is still getting airtime.
But ….. ???
If in doubt, create some really big, scary numbers.
Ah yes, the good old “we must introduce more measures because others have introduced more measures”, the brilliant policy which has worked so extremely well since the very beginning of this pandemic.
In politics this well-established doctrine is known as Race to the Bottom, and in academic circles it goes by Mutually Assured Dumbassity (MAD).
Yep, this why face nap mandates were brought in…”because other countries were doing it! ” And none of this worked last time, if you believe any of this crap was meant to work…but, like the dangerous lunatics they are they’ll keep doing it anyway, knowing damn well what the result will be!
Their policies have worked so extremely well! You must adjust your thinking and appreciate that they are hell bent on destruction.
Neil sum game
Saw this in the Telegraph and the comments were great…they were so good they closed down the comment section within a couple of hours! So I never got chance to add to it!! HaHaHa.
I nearly bought a copy of the Telegraph on Sunday but thought better of it. Closing down comments is hardly the way to endear itself to readers.
“Cases are growing, because boosters are stalling, if we don’t get boosters rolled, we will have to take measures, if we don’t take measures, we will have cases growing, blah, blah, blah” Yawn.
One of the many things you’ve got to watch out for with politicians, is them saying that they had the right policy all along and the reason it didn’t work is because it didn’t go far enough — hence needing more of the same to ‘solve the problem’.
This is exactly why we’re where we are — they’ve bet on vaccinations as the saviour and the more they fail to solve the problem the more they’ll demand are vaccinated / boosted.
You’d think that people would realise this sort of thing as a standard behaviour of politicians and call them out on it, but people never do seem to realise, and instead side with the politicians in demanding more of the same. Oh well, looks like we’re stuck with them.
Oh yes, vaccines, the Cavalry just around the corner to save us as Matt Wankok kept telling us before his timely departure.
The “vaccine” has not worked so let’s increase the dose; sounds like the theory that GPs etc use to dispense anti-depressants ” So Mr/Mrs X , I see you are still of a low mood with your current dose, let’s cycle up your medication to improve the outcome”.
And we all “know” that the UK as elsewhere is very heavily over medicated with SSRI…..all because of a community of medics driven by the “Herd Instinct”.
It is so comforting to have the mad modeller’s predictions, which we know will be out by a Fergu (the new epidemiological constant invented by him), and as long as we do the maths (just divide his doomsday forecasts by 10), we should be ready for what awaits us.
Love the “Fergu” as a measure of failure!
As you say, always divide his “forecasts” by at least 10 times.
Not listening, not interested, he’s never been right yet
“People need to be aware that we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic “
Sane conclusion : Jabs and other bullshit do f. all. Ignore Public Health significance seekers.
Insane conclusion : Let’s do more pointlessness. Listen to Fergusson
Deleted
It’s not good news until it translates into a different perception.
Maybe it’s because I’m tired but is it just me who reads his statement and thinks that it’s not even grammatically correct? I presume to know what he is trying to say but I would have failed O level English language had I come out with such a disjointed combination of words. Presumably he had time in advance to think about it which makes it even more confounding.
I think living in a perpetual state of hysteria has an affect on the grammar part of a person’s brain.
It occurred to me that it is the sort of sentence someone with dyslexia might come up with. Apparently “many children have dyslexia and dyscalculia together”. Dyscalculia is the mathematical equivalent of dyslexia. In all seriousness, that could well explain a lot.
Count me, and millions of others, out.
#UnitedDisobedience
Ferguson is a laughing stock in his own profession. He’s now being openly mocked and frequently disparaged by his peers online. Numerous scientists in interviews have referred to “scientists doing questionable modelling”, or similar. Everyone knows who they’re talking about. How much longer can the likes of Imperial stand behind this guy?
ICL are the dam wall protecting this idiot – the weight of the scientific criticism – “water”- filling the lake behind that wall is evidently growing; we all now what happens when dams, holding back lakes when full, burst – they take out a lot of innocent people ( with apologies to Chastise/617 casualties)
That doesn’t say much for the vaccines, does it.
Italian news blackout is almost complete, they are still marching though!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx8Th581wJI
Watching the news nowadays is like watching Punch and Judy. Everyone has the internet, so it’s easy to see what’s going on. And easy to see the readers have a hand stuck up their arse.
In the old days the news told you what actually happened and you had to work out what to think of it.
Now the news tells you what you should think and you have to work out what actually happened.
“we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”, and we also have some of the highest levels of asymptomatic testing we have almost ever had.
Looking at the gov stats, I see that “cases” have dropped significantly in Scotland where the kids went back to school a couple of weeks before England. Thus I confidently predict that they will drop here too, especially given the impact of half term.
Axiom: ‘In order to advance a communist ideological belief system, the rulers must *pretend* not to know things’.
Individually, in groups, or in the systems they construct, that axiom has always been true.
Not sure if that’s confined to just communism, probably applies to any belief system based on lies. But it’s very true. They know what they are doing.
Indeed – what we are seeing is fascism rather than communism.
It’s anti-democratic totalitarianism – which is sui generis, and can emerge from behind a range of fronts, be they communist, fascist, nationalist or vaguely populist or paternalistic. In this case, and in this country it’s actually Toryism that is the operative front.
Oh God, you’re still spouting this crap.
The only opposition – feeble, I admit – to this tyranny in the HOC has come from Torys.
Did Mussolini support the replacement of the indigenous Italian population with Third Worlders?
Did he want to close down cafes, cinemas, local shops, theatres and restaurants?
This is ‘communism’ the same way that Ferguson’s models are accurate predictions.
Bring it on. Lockdowns and boosters forever. People need to have their noses rubbed in it to understand they’ve been conned. A general lockdown will help us. The nightmare scenario is vaccine passports everywhere. I think they are sadly too smart to close stuff again. The smart play is to demonise the unvaxxed.
‘Of all ignorance, the ignorance of the educated is the most dangerous. Not only are educated people likely to have more influence, they are the last people to suspect that they don’t know what they are talking about when they go outside their narrow fields.’ –
Thomas Sowell
I doubt he’s ignorant. He’s getting away with talking shit and being listened to. Why would he stop?
Vaccine passport: a device used in early 21st century society to segregate unvaccinated people from the people who were given an ineffective vaccine that didn’t actually stop them catching or spreading covid. This device was also used to give the appearance of “doing something” while nudging the populous into carrying around digital identification, and into compliance with government commands. The devices were eventually abandoned after the Second Pandemic War.
Awesome!
Oh, do naff orf, Ferguson.
Ferguson is a cunt
Apologies, but there is no other way of saying that
Tempted to say
he is not as useful as thatbut I won’t for fear of being branded a sexistHow come people can become infected if they are vaccinated?
Impossible surely?
Can we dig up Jimmy Saville and ask him what to do about child sexual exploitation?
Didn’t the bbc just do that?
Good heavens. Imagining still listening to this crank. How on earth is this cretin (yes, philosophically speaking, he’s a cretin) still gaining airtime?
This inept specimen stands as a single indictment of our society.
So they’re trying the same “Don’t panic” move that they tried with car fuel.
Ferguson doesn’t panic about restrictions anyway – he just breaks them while telling everyone else to obey them.
Since 2020/03/31, 304,655,729 Sars-CoV2 test have been done in the UK, statistically this means every person living in this country has been tested 4.53 times. 27% of these tests have been done in the 92 days since freedom day. But these represent only 15.89% of the 579 days since testing started. Up to and including 2021/07/18, on average, 562,980.32 tests were done per day. From 2021/07/19, this increased by a factor of almost 1.6 (1.59) to an average of 894,331.55 per day. This exceeds the number of tests performed in every other major western European country (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) by a margin.
Could this perhaps be related to the higher case numbers in the UK and not enforced mask wearing and vaccination passes elsewhere?
Nearly 900k tests a day is a lot. Who exactly is getting tested? I think we should be provided with this information.
Also…. How many haven’t ever been tested? Apart from me 😉
No, never. I once wore a face covering in summer 2020 but then read up on it and realised it was a con.
Me neither. Some people have to get tested at work or in school. And the remainder are probably a rather small (compared to the number of people) set of volunteer repeat offenders who absolutely want have a pandemic going on.
Well i’ve never submitted to one so some poor smuck has had more than 5!
In the absence of a functioning democracy, in the absence of any actual opposition to the Government, and in the absence of any members of Parliament to represent our views, and given all of the weapons (literal and metaphorical) which the State holds against us, our sole responsibility as citizens is to resist, not comply, not co-operate, not collaborate and in general cause as much friction for central and local government as we possibly can.
“we have currently higher levels of infection in the community than we’ve almost ever had during the pandemic”
Great ‘vaccines’ aren’t they?