August’s Age-Standardised Mortality Rate Was 2.5% Higher Than the Five-Year Average
The ONS announced on Tuesday that there were 40,460 deaths registered in England in August, which is approximately the same number as in July, and 9.9% more than the five-year average.
As you can see on this chart, weekly deaths remained above the five-year average for most of the month. Then in week 35, the August bank holiday artificially lowered death registrations:
Deaths being roughly 10% higher than the five-year average sounds like quite a lot. And in fact, the number of deaths registered in August of 2020 was 5.6% less than the five-year average.
Of course, infections were at a local minimum last August, and some of the deaths that would have occurred then had been brought forward by the pandemic. By contrast, August of 2021 coincided with the tail end of the Delta wave, and infections remained elevated throughout the month.
Consistent with this interpretation, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in August (a month when mortality is usually low) and deaths from eight of the nine other leading causes were below their five-year averages.
But as I always note in these updates, age-adjusted measures provide a much better guide to changes in mortality than the absolute number of deaths. In August, the age-standardised mortality rate was about the same as in July, and was only 2.5% higher than the five-year average.
This chart from the ONS shows the age-standardised mortality rate for the first eight months of the year, each year, going back to 2001:
As in the preceding two months, cumulative mortality to date was lower than the corresponding figures for both 2015 and 2018. In other words, the first eight months of 2018 – a year with no pandemic – were more deadly than the first eight months of 2021.
Overall then, 2021 is still a fairly normal year for mortality in England. As a matter of fact, it’s the sixth least deadly year on record! This could change, however, if the winter brings a particularly large wave of COVID-19 or seasonal flu.
This post has been updated.
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Whilst confirming that the ‘vaccine’ assault and NPIs have been invisible in terms of benefits, this commentary is statistically flawed :
These may seem like technicalities, but they are the sort of technicalities that the Covid myth depends on.
‘The’ five year average also now seems to cover a fixed period of time, rather than being a.rollong average of the previous five years in the pre-Covid era.
If 2015-2019 was the standard insisted upon in 2020, then the standard in 2021 should be 2016-2020.
Either that or the five-year average is and was a bad comparison set.
I’ve not bothered to check out that aspect – because the concept is so incredibly flawed.
As one experienced academic statistician remarked to me when I questioned its use : “Don’t really know – it’s just a sort of … convention.”
I agree, this could change this winter with a rise of deaths from micro blood clots and those who did not get access to NHS services… in order to save it.
“Overall then, 2021 is still a fairly normal year for mortality in England. As a matter of fact, it’s the sixth least deadly year on record! This could change, however, if the winter brings a particularly large wave of COVID-19 or seasonal flu”
or vaxx deaths……
…and mushrooming vaxx deaths, which are a near certainty.
Plus those unfortunate individuals dying off whilst waiting in line for the NHS to see them.
Why are we worried about this year’s winter season? If 80% of adults have had two jabs for Covid plus Covid and Flu boosters for the vulnerable groups, then what’s the worry??
Three letters…A.D.S
Another three, ADE.
Bojo officially on Notice of Liability. His office has 14 days to respond. The walls are closing in on this piece of filth who is trying to destroy this country.
I tip my hat to Anna De Buisseret and David Clews. THAT is what you call opposition and walking the walk. Breathtaking work from these true patriots and heroes.
UNN’s David Clews & Anna De Buisseret put the Cabal on notice to cease & desist!
https://www.bitchute.com/video/EMWHqG8o3MtB/
Anna De Buisseret explains affidavit holding Prime Minister responsible if harm comes to a child
https://www.bitchute.com/video/0yQgewJ9gwdl/
This sort of performative Freemental on the Land LARPing is entertaining, but rather infantile. They have no means to hold Grosse Leader or his regime accountable, and the courts would laugh it off even if they did.
Why is no one talking about the vastly higher all-causes deaths among vaccinated people, versus unvaccinated? ONS figures show a huge disparity.
There are more deaths among older and sicker people rather than younger and healthier? Gadzooks!
I’m sorry, have you not noticed that practically everyone has now been vaccinated? or are you deliberately trying to miss the point?
A large wave of Covid of flu?
How about a large wave of vaccine induced deaths?
That’s what I would be really worried about.
Look at the ONS weekly excess deaths; that wave has been growing since April.
It’s not a bloody ‘wave’. Far from it.
Perfect illustration of the panic-inducing term ‘excess deaths’. Plastic words indeed!
Please tell me what this extra thousand deaths per week is?
Normal variance.
Size matters.
Exactly Stewart…. read and weep….
https://www.worldtribune.com/unexpected-and-heartbreaking-thousands-flood-abc-affiliates-facebook-page-with-vaccination-horror-stories/
And my sisters MIL died shortly after her 2nd AZ kill-shot a few weeks post the prick in fact… from a non-related brain hemorrhage of course… she was a non-smoker gym bunny early 60s no comorbs go figure? Family pushed for an autopsy…. didn’t happen in peak pandemic time back in March.
Nothing to see here… move along…. move along….
My feeling is that death rates will run ‘hot’ for some time to come, even if one ignores any excess caused by covid deaths. It seems obvious to me at least that if you jab people with a vaccine that floods their system with spike proteins that are known to cause blood clots then there will be blood circulatory health impacts well beyond those poor unfortunates who keel over with a cerebral blood clot within hours of the shot. My feeling is that many of the people currently dying from heart attacks and strokes etc will have had their fatal episode triggered by their taking of the vaccine, but their deaths will never be attributed to it. However the excess number of such deaths will be statistically significant and easily spotted by those looking at the data.
“death rates will run ‘hot’ for some time”
But, in fact, they are not doing so. Have a look. The only use of that five-year average is to show the line of the lowest ever mortality.
Excess deaths have been above the five year average since Easter. What is not running “hot” about that?
The comparison with a flawed baseline. I suggest you forget it and look at – say – the last quarter century as a baseline.
It’s well within a normal spread.
Thats fine, though on that basis one suspects the entire covid episode would not even make it above the average death rate for the last 25 years, precisely because rates have been falling consistently over that period. So you can’t have it both ways. Either we judge the severity of both covid and the vaccines vs a 25 year average baseline, or we judge them both vs a 5 year average. But you can’t have covid impact judged against the 5 year average but then claim that the vaccine impact should be judged against the 15 year one. Thats cherry-picking to suit your argument.
Consistent with this interpretation, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in August (a month when mortality is usually low) and deaths from the other nine leading causes were all below their five-year averages.
Last August with no jab, covid was 24th on the list 😬