Devastating New Data From PHE Shows Vaccine Effectiveness Down to 17% and No Reduction in Infectiousness – But Mortality Cut by 77%
Public Health England yesterday released their latest technical briefing on the variants of concern, number 20, and it has some illuminating data.
It provides us with the infection, hospitalisation and death rates for the Delta variant, broken down by vaccination status and age. This allows us to do a calculation of the real-world vaccine effectiveness in the over-50s during the Delta surge, albeit a rough one without any adjustments.
The latest report has data up to August 2nd. If we substract from these values the data in Briefing 17 (up to June 21st) then we get the data covering the period June 22nd to August 2nd, which broadly corresponds to the bulk of the Delta surge in the U.K. The vaccine rollout to the over-50s was basically complete by this point, having stabilised according to PHE at around 88% double vaccinated and 10% unvaccinated (the other two per cent remaining single vaccinated, perhaps due to a bad reaction to the first dose).
In this period the PHE data tells us there were 2,464 Delta cases in the unvaccinated over-50s and 17,926 in the fully vaccinated over-50s. From this we can estimate the vaccine effectiveness against infection in the over-50s during the Delta surge as 17% (1-[(17,926/88%)/(2,464/10%)]). This confirms using additional data the estimate I made last week.
We can make a similarly rough calculation of the vaccine effectiveness against death. Between June 22nd and August 2nd, PHE reports that among the over-50s there were 339 deaths with the Delta variant in the double vaccinated and 167 in the unvaccinated. Using the same proportions vaccinated and unvaccinated as above, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against death in the over-50s during the Delta surge of 77% (1-[(339/88%)/(167/10%)]). Interestingly, this is very similar to the latest estimate of vaccine effectiveness against serious disease from Israel, which is around 80%. This is a decent level of protection and helps explain why the Delta surge had proportionally fewer hospitalisations and deaths, but it is well below the levels suggested by earlier studies and quoted by PHE, which are north of 95%.
Another noteworthy point from the briefing is that the secondary attack rate (SAR, the proportion of contacts that an infected person infects) of the Delta variant has continued to decline as the surge exhausts itself. The household SAR is now at 10.8%, down from a high of 13.5% on May 4th. This means nearly 90% of the people who live with someone infected with the ‘highly transmissible’ Delta variant do not contract the virus, an indication of widespread (and growing) immunity to the variant. Note that this is well below the 15.5% ‘direct contact’ SAR of the Alpha variant in the middle of December, giving the lie to the oft-repeated claim that Delta is intrinsically more infectious than Alpha.
A final point is that the briefing includes for the first time important analysis showing the vaccines are unlikely to do much in the way of reducing how infectious a person is. The researchers found that samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated infected people had similar average cycle threshold (Ct) values, meaning they had similar viral loads, suggesting a comparable level of infectiousness. The authors write:
In the NHS Test and Trace (NHSTT) case data, the mean and median lowest Ct values for all cases with Delta, where Ct data are available, since the 14 June 2021 are similar, with a median of 17.8 for unvaccinated and 18.0 for those with 2 vaccine doses. This means that whilst vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of becoming infected, once they are infected there is limited difference in viral load (and Ct values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated. Given they have similar Ct values, this suggests limited difference in infectiousness. To note, this analysis is undertaken on case data and are not age-stratified. Findings can be influenced by test-seeking behaviour, as well as true changes in the data, for example the age distribution of cases, which can also influence Ct values.
This new data from PHE is in line with the latest findings from Israel, where the SAR was no lower among the vaccinated, and from the U.S. CDC, which found no difference in average Ct values between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
Many news outlets have picked up this story, but few have drawn the obvious conclusion: that this further undermines the case for vaccine passports as it suggests vaccinated people are no less likely to pass on the virus than unvaccinated people. When added to the very low vaccine effectiveness against infection it’s hard to see how there is any case for vaccine passports left at all, even on their own terms, quite apart from any considerations of freedom and non-discrimination.
This latest data reinforces the picture that had been emerging in recent months of vaccines which do little to prevent infection or transmission (and thus to prevent or stop outbreaks) but which do reduce severe disease and death in the vaccinated, albeit not by as much as was originally claimed. This confirms that vaccination may be a good way of a person at high risk from the disease reducing their personal risk, but it has almost no value as a way of protecting others, so there is no benefit in vaccinating children, introducing vaccine passports domestically or internationally, or coercing young people to get a vaccine which to them is almost all risk and no benefit.
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Does it really? Isn’t the one of the reasons for the “unvaccinated” deaths is that they’re on their death bed and so it’s too risky/not worth “vaccinating” (it’s not a vaccination but a prophylactic but let’s not split hairs) in the first place?
Yes, it would be really helpful if we had data on comorbid underlying health conditions among those who died. Another issue, I wonder if there’s any bias in the reporting of cause of death by the medical profession whereby those who die “fully vaccinated” are less likely to be classed as a covid death than those unvaccinated (especially if those medics have fully bought into the vaccine propaganda).
Nevertheless, great article Will!
Just another thought, is there any chance that given the nhs is fully invested in the gov covid narrative, people presenting to hospital and having a positive pcr test result are getting a poorer service than those “responsible citizens” who are fully jabbed up, and hence more likely to die?
That should say “UNVACCINATED people presenting to hospital and having a positive pcr test result”
No , lets DO split hairs; how come this “vaccine”, the allegedly “gold standard” treatment for a less than morbid virus when the stats deem it to be as lethal as an average flu outbreak (for which lockdowns etc have NEVER been instigated) is being injected at the recommendation of WHO/EMA/CDC/PHE (an employee of which, Zambon, has her dirty fingers all over the”official” recommendation for the totally fraudulent Cormen/Drosten RT PCR test regime as exposed completely by D4CE but apparently about to be abandoned by the CDC) to combat what they denominate is a respiratory virus; how come the injected toxins induce the human body to produce spike proteins – you know, the proteins that do ALL the damage – which then inhabit virtually every cell in your body, not just in your respiratory tract, and as proved by US scientists and also proven by the autopsy of an 86 yo who died with CV19 in Germany. How come the UK MHRA have approved and continue to approve booster, mRNA “vaccines” without requiring informed consent – illegal – without completing long term tier 2 and 3 trials, without testing on the population most at risk ( aged with comorbidities/pregnant women)… Read more »
I assume this is a response to A Heretic’s comment
Quite so, and not directed at your good self.
In the good old USA they are explicit that such a way of counting is carried out. The CDC says only those vaccinated with viral loads enough to show positive under 25Cts is considered Covid positive.
And there is your “pandemic of the unvaccinated”
The UK reporting criteria was also offficially changed with regard to the case count of the vaxxed: positive tests without symptoms or only mild ones are no longer reported as a case.
This seems to have been forgotten, as it seriously understates the number of breakthrough infections.
it’s now a “panic of the vaccinated”
Well there were talks about adopting the american approach of running the tests at lower cycles for those who are vaccinated ……..
This is a very important point.
The stats assume that unvaccinated and vaccinated ‘are the same’ (other than vax status).
But official figures show that there are very different age profiles for the two groups; the unvaccinated have a strange profile where most of the unvaccinated (over 50%) are in the 50-60 age group, but a large proportion (about 20%) are over 80. The suggestion that these are more infirm seems reasonable.
Thus it is reasonable to suggest that it is this subset of the unvaccinated 50+ are dying.
This would be made clear by offering statistics by age (even better, by vulnerability) — the authorities’ continued resistance to offer data that might show the vaccines as being less effective than they suggest has long appeared to be foolish (at best) — it now appears to be deliberate obfuscation.
It goes back to the importance of the “because of covid” versus “with covid” (or more accurately, “with a positive pcr test result”) distinction. Deliberately muddying the waters is just as bad as out and out lying.
A group which dies far more anyway…
Excellent point. There were reports that extremely frail were being vaccinated in hospitals during the first roll out. As if it would add anything to their situation. No doubt they couldn’t get over their “good immune response” and ultimately it did more harm than good.
SARs COVID 19 – A seasonal respiratory, like colds and flu extremely common during the winter months.
Vaccine 17% effective during high summer.
Since dying of or with COVID-19 counts as a COVID-19 death, shouldn’t dying of or with the vax count as a vax death? j/k
It’s more likely that the most frail are in the vaccinated group – after all, it been the policy from the very beginning to jab the oldest/weakest first. If those people kept dying “from vaccine”, you would probably triumphantly point out how deadly it was.
But of course, you are free to now drive in the exact opposite direction believe whatever supports your baseless claims.
Meanwhile, the “devastating” data, however you spin it, still suggests that getting vaccinated (over 50) is a very good idea.
That would be why we are now considering vaccinating 12-year-olds?
<YAWN>
Yawning is a physiological behavior, an emotional stereotypy that indicates the homeostatic process of the mechanisms regulating rhythms, such as sleeping/waking, hunger/ satiety or mating/relaxation, generated by the diencephalon. As with all physiological behaviors, its deregulation reveals disorders.
Why not try GastriSoothe.
Thank you so much. Have been following since briefing 15.
My theory is that vaccination has done nothing to reduce the CFR from 2,0 to 0,2 alpha/delta but that it is due to genetic viral benign mutation.
CFR Delta never came above 0,2 and Alpha never under 2,0 despite both running simultaneously for 6-8 weeks from early June.
So you think the decline, in hospitalisation and death, is a coincidence, possibly as a result of more robust immune response during the summer months?
I think the virus essentially runs out of susceptible targets. This is, at least in part, what is known as “Herd Immunity”. The susceptible die, most survive with an immune system updated to the latest version of whatever is going around. God has got this all covered. Allowing corporate and political criminal lying pieces of human filth to take over this process is about as dumb a thing as you can do.
Here is a good vid on herd immunity from a legit expert:
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski | Episode 2
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7ubfyh
All going great until you bring God/men in the sky/fairy stories into it. If God has it covered, why the fuck did he let all this happen in the first place, or does God work in mysterious ways and it’s all part of his plan (and if so, he/she can fuck the fuck off)?
Er, something to do with free will?
Is that not something of an ironic dichotomy? Saying it’s free will if it’s in Gods hands.
you’re assuming a God whose “job” it is to make everybody happy. see Genesis 6 for example.
I’m assuming nothing as I don’t believe in God. Until someone can prove it’s existence the only belief you can have is that it doesn’t exist. Religion is about power and control; I’m a fan of neither.
Trying to bring logic to religious nuts is even more difficult than bringing data to anti-vaccine nuts. Actually, scratch it, they are probably the same group.
wittkowsky made an eternal fool of himself with his statements.
the “expert” could not have gotten it more wrong.
he in fact knows about as much as the rest of the “experts” do: virtually nothing.
The word you are searching for is ‘correlation’, and this comment ties into general biological understanding and experience.
I think you have to take those CFR numbers with a grain of salt, especially at the start. What they call cases and died with/of etc etc.. (remember Diamond Princess). And there is no doubt in my mind that the policies of mixing known positive and negative patients, emptying hospitals back in to nursing homes and excessive use of toxic medicines and ventilators aggravated the situation on top of the fear porn. Policies implemented have either not done anything or made it worse. I wonder what the excess death would have looked like by now if we just did nothing and carried on..
The Diamond Princes had over 3500 people involved, of whom the majority never even tested positive for the virus, despite their incarceration. Yet no-one who matters seems to have noticed this.
Compare and contrast with the British Navy ship where everyone was vaccinated. Hmmm . . .
What happened there with infections?
Agreed.
I’m sure someone posted this before but I hadn’t seen it until now
https://www.entertainmentdaily.co.uk/news/piers-morgan-asks-twitter-advice-amid-shocking-covid-symptoms/
couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy but
“seriously ill with covid but still thinks the vaccine has saved him.”
this is the level of idiocy we now have to deal with.
Report the other day of someone losing their 40 something, fit and healthy brother to Covid and regretting being an antivaxxer before he died. So sorry for their loss but tellingly their comment was that the hospital threw every drug in the book at the man and had him on a ventilator (??!!) Another case where we’ll never know the true cause of death.
It might be tasteless hobby but if you can find an image of the deceased online they are almost always overweight and usually obese.
I found one where it was obvious from the photos online that the “covid victim” had been abusing anabolic steroids but to family would prob have appeared to be fit and healthy despite the likely heart damage.
Agreed, What they weren’t was a person in fine, physical shape.
Furthermore, it simply doesn’t happen that the same pathogen undergoes a few more mutations & turns into a virus with highly lethal virus in children.
So when you’re told this or that variant is go to kill a hundred thousand children, THEY’RE LYING,
Fit and Healthy has been skewed in this day and age because obesity has been normalised to the point that overweight is the shape most people see.
Our food system isn’t designed for health. It’s designed for addiction and excess consumption. This in turn helps the Pharma companies because there’s direct correlation between eating crap and not exercising and pharmaceutical drugs and remedies. One feeds off the other. Truly healthy people are not a good business model; they eat less and they don’t get ill.
Michael Eades made a great point years ago – look at Woodstock and films with crowd scenes from the sixties and seventies, then look at a modern street scene.
Take a look at “Night Mail”; men doing a hard physically demanding manual job, immediately pre war; look at the facial demeanour of these men and marvel at the chiselled features – think of their diet in those pre war times; now fast forward to 2021…
Agreed and this is the greatest crisis human’s face today. You want to ‘save’ the NHS you have to have a paradigm shift on the education of food and changing what goes in it because food is the greatest cause of death by proxy. I’m all for freedom of choice – but the choices are loaded with crap to keep people addicted to them and craving more.
It’s extraordinarily unlikely that he died OF Covid19. Completely wrong medical history for that,
I responded to your comment because the plural of anecdote is not dara.
Even if it was learned at post mortem (which won’t be done as there’s no upside fir the perpetrators) that death was consistent with flu-le illness & Covid19 infection was confirmed as likely (because the swab was positive after eg just 17 cycles of PCR) it doesn’t alter a thing.
This virus, as a risk to the working aged population, is no greater than & in younger people, a lesser risk than in seasonal influenza,
Even in the elderly, the only reason it’s claimed a moderately greater risk than flu is because steps were taken at the start which killed tens of thousands of people, by shunting them into unsuitable care homes & given no effective treatments.
This monstrous crime failed to recognise that what they’d done greatly increased the number of deaths attributed to the virus, when they mostly were not. This has had the effect of falsely increasing the infection fatality ratio,
There never was & certainty isn’t now a public health emergency.
But when will people begin to understand this?
When the MSM say so. Which they won’t.
Anecdote is not data, but here is a balancing one. I have a relative, thin and fit, early 70s, but with chronic leukaemia, just recovered from cancer of the appendix, and has mild heart failure. He and his wife did not accept the jabs – he was worried about its possible effects on his already frail system, so he waited to see the full outcomes of these “vaccines”, and upped his D levels.
They live somewhere very sunny.
This summer they both got the Delta variant. Recovered in two weeks, mild symptoms, no hospital, no doctor even, no Ivermectin, all fine.
not to mention, they’ve got the best immunity. I’m also post-cancer, went from “vax hesitant” to “refusenik” (wife also, we’re in late ’60’s) read a lot, fortified our diets with vitamins (esp D and C), Quercetin, NAC, etc. I have not felt this good since before chemo a couple years ago. Bonus from taking NAC – found out that it helps get rid of “free iron” in your blood, which a doctor told me I had and that it wasn’t good for me. He advised donating blood to get rid of it but couldn’t donate due to having cancer.
Yes in conversation with people who say they knew someone who died of covid I now default to a line about how they should have the death investigated to ensure their friend or relative was not killed by malpractice – either misuse of vents or killed by drugs like remdesivir. Every covid death should be investigated, no exceptions. That is the stage we have to get the public to – where they realise every death must be questioned.
Good luck with that. Many are too busy getting granny to do a lateral flow before Sunday dinner at theirs.
This is potentially a scenario where they have loaded the patient up on Remdesivir, this causes multiple organ failure and particulary kidney failure which can cause pulmonary edema which can look like pneumonia. See this video for full details:
DR.BRYAN ARDIS: “WE ARE WITNESSING INTENTIONAL MEDICAL GENOCIDE”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/KJYZyKTgWnw6/
New vid not seen yet:
Dr Bryan Ardis – the FDA document outlining all C-19 Vaccines adverse injuries and more.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/hG1Nr38Qh4cy/
Killing people with ventilators exposed in section 3 of this document:
The Chinese Communist Party’s Global Lockdown Fraud
https://ccpgloballockdownfraud.medium.com/the-chinese-communist-partys-global-lockdown-fraud-88e1a7286c2b
Yes, these are better explanations of the point I was trying to make; despite it being anecdotal!
Someone on twitter weeping for their poor dear husband with covid on a ventilator – loads of people getting all soppy over it. Given that there are only about 2 people per UK county with alleged Covid in ICU, and only half of those on ventilators, it seems to be yet another 77th fantasy.
Or, you could read more into the words of the sister who ‘admitted’ to the full on medical intervention.
Vaccination is like touching a relic of Christ’s metatarsal…
Whoever did that would be very theologically confused.
He’s not seriously ill, just recovered but still very tired as you expect from the immune reaction to Covid at his age and being a bit overweight. No evidence that the jabs reduced his Covid at all.
Will, great article but will you consider removing the term “devastating” from the headline. State the facts and let the readers decide whether the news is devastating or not. Fear inducing headlines that nudge readers what to think is what we expect from the likes of the BBC and mainstream media… I come to the daily sceptic to get away from all the mind control and nonsense. Perhaps there should be some headline guidelines to keep things objective?
Ha! I had assumed he meant devastating to the case for vaccination….which it is
Maybe I am too generous
I just forwarded Will’s great article to a friend but first deleted the word “Devastating” from the title. For that very same reason.
Regarding cases (as totally meaningless as they are), your jab effectiveness depends on equal proportions of the jabbed and unjabbed getting tested. Those who are jabbed do not require testing as often as the unjabbed do in order to go to some places.
Then again in the deaths (and we are talking about incidental meaningless tests when the causes of death are largely other than covid), you make the same assumption. What if, for example, some directive is given to test the unjabbed more than the jabbed? Now this could be for ‘safety’ or – dare I say – because of intention to push the benefits of the jab.
The track record of the government, its so-called scientists and its compliant minions is not very good when it comes to transparency and honesty. So you, Will, apart from making some sweeping assumptions yourself, have not put this caveat into your article.
Agree that the conclusions depend on equal numbers being tested, or at least that being taken into account, but it’s the other way round; it is very likely that the majority of over-50s who are still unvaccinated are relatively sceptical or unworried, and/or disinclined to participate in the whole drama, and would quite possibly have actively avoided being tested ( as I have ).
And many of these unvaccinated over-50s could be “catching” the virus and even falling ill to some degree with it, but not dying, and yet their survival not be counted at all. If it were it could significantly reduce that apparently decent vaccine “mitigation”/reduction of severity statistic, perhaps to 0.
I also have actively avoided testing and will continue to do so. I am surrounded by people who willingly rush off and get tested for Covid when they have snuffles and sore throats. It’s as if they want to have Covid. I deflect conversations about vaccines as I haven’t been vaccinated and intend not to unless, of course, I want to visit my family abroad but I’m holding out in the hope that vaccine passports and the like will go away. (Yes, I know…). I appear to be an inland in a stream of vaccinees and testees.
“No reduction in infectiousness”.
Does that by any chance mean that there is now no need for “vaxports” and that it will now be dropped by the government?
Abd what about the stories from Scotland we’ve seen suggesting that the “vaccines” do not necessarily reduce hospitalisations? Or the possibility that “vaccines” (and NPI’s) create the conditions for variants with higher mortality rates
The key point here though is that given these vaccines are the best we have, there is now no longer any benefit in slowing down transmission.
The health service can cope, severe disease and death has been nipped by vaccination, and therefore to reach herd immunity and stop the epidemic we now need to just get back to normal and treat the symptoms. Just like any other seasonal respiratory illness.
The disease that is rampant in society is “do-gooder” disease – the belief that certain actions help others when they do nothing of the sort. In reality it’s about making the do-gooder feel morally superior, not fixing a problem.
Corona theatre now has precisely the same effect as giving money to beggars. It’s well known that giving money to beggars does little other than fund drug habits. Yet the ‘do-gooders’ keep splashing the cash.
The injections, they are not vaccines, are reponsible for significant illnesses and deaths. Other medications without these effects are available to do the same job of treating covid-19.
The injections are being used to introduce intrusive biotech IDs.
As Will’s article summarises, there is no medical reason for the injections, and the damage their use makes to freedom and discrimination means they should be discontinued.
All true, but please note the gene-based “vaccines” were certain to do harm.
The LNPs are considered a homing technology. I read a 2012 retrospective on this very point & it was stated several, species’ ovaries were targeted
I believe the decision to use LNPs was taken deliberately, despite this knowledge,
I believe that use of the spike protein as immunogen was likewise taken deliberately & in the knowledge of the potential to accidentally on purpose & has put hundreds of millions of people’s reproductive health at risk.
I think the lead scientists, the top of the line supervisors plus the entire boards of these companies should be arrested. Charges tbd, but there are plenty to choose from.
Thank you, Dr Yeadon. I keep trying to cling to the hope that they are merely reckless in pursuit of profit, but the intense desire they have to give the spike to the young and pregnant women fits completely with your hypothesis.
wanting to cause harm does not tally with what I have seen in the pharma industry. What I HAVE seen however is an abrogation of responsibility for harm, to the regulators and public health bodies.
The thinking would go like this: “well, we should do a study in children to see if it’s safe and effective because there may be children who might benefit for whatever reason….and if the FDA or MHRA/JCVI decide they all should have it, then that’s not our problem and we get paid so that’s ok then”
The one piece that really doesn’t fit for me though is the tragic case of Maddie de Garay. To record her devastating side effects as minor and “abdominal pain” seems negligent at best, fraudulent at worst. That needs careful looking at.
Take your pick, reckless endangerment of culpable homicide in the first degree ( sorry, not au fait with US Penal Code ); which national Judiciary or prosecutors are going to be “allowed” to take this on?
What I HAVE seen however is an abrogation of responsibility for harm, to the regulators and public health bodies.
Yes, ties in with my theory of disseminated responsibility – everyone conveniently assumes someone else is doing it, but in fact no one is.
Having said that, the vaccine safety failures are sooo egregious it is impossible not to suspect some very, very foul play.
I have tried not to believe some of the more extreme concerns about the injections, partly because what they obviously do and are used for is bad enough. However after your comment I have read more widely about the work on targetting using LNPs and now understand that what you say is correct. They can direct to ovaries or indeed across the blood/brain barrier.
Given the known lies we have been fed up to date I cannot discount the possibility that if not the intial injections, but any ‘boosters which will not even go through any sort of independant verification can contain anything ‘they’ desire. If depopulation is the aim, the means to do so appears to be now available without detection or knowledge until its too late.
https://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-news2/newsid=56343.php
Thank you. I can assure you, I’ve no history of conspiracy theories or of public comment before the pandemic. I’m simply trying to explain all the observations and not leave big chunks out. When I do that, there is no plausible benign explanation for what we’ve seeing. Turning to today, vaccine passports are just silly. The best way to assure clients who have to interact with strangers is denying access to those with symptoms of respiratory illness. This is a distinctly temporary situation, so why build a huge structure of common format interoperable digital ID with an editable field (vaccine status)? Given there is a good handful of safe & effective treatments, not lifting all restrictions yesterday is completely unaccountable. The idea of third & subsequent “boosters” was floated well before any clinical trials information on the gene-based products. How could they possibly know that boosters & variant vaccines would be needed, a year before their planned use? I’m as certain as it’s possible to be to state that immunity after infection by this virus is very likely to be robust & durable. It certainly is for the most closely related virus, SARS (2003). I defy anyone to come up… Read more »
Tnoy Blair among others was pushing for vaccine passports years ago. Obviously covid “vaccines” will bring it about but they will not be the only ones mandated. I suspect also the likes of statins and veganism will be on there shortly.
I suspect also the likes of statins and veganism will be on there shortly.
Dear Dr Kendrick, your thoughts , please, on the usefulness of Statins being mandated via the “Vaccine Passport”….?
Far from being ‘devastating’, this is excellent news, as it completely undermines the case for pointless mass vaccination, and the governments fascist totalitarian sideshow.
Is that 77% of the 0.03% death rate?
Imagine this thought experiment. Only today is it discovered that a coronavirus closely resembling SARS has been characterised. “It’s a great deal more transmissible but carries almost no lethality”, said Prof Neil Ferguson. “We expect it to continue infecting large numbers of people but there’s no need to panic,” added Prof Chris Witty. “Before the recent confirmation of the likely causative agent, empirically studies were run across a number of London’s university hospitals, confirming the not-unexpected finding that hydroxychloroquine & zinc or ivermectin are able to reduce the medical consequences on individuals & the NHS to something approximating a summer cold”, continued Witty. “We’ve no idea where it came from, but I’m making a few calls on my Batphone”. stated Sir Patrick. Meanwhile, disgraced former philanthropist, Bill Gates, remains in custody & on 24 hour suicide watch in a jail in Tanzania. Asked about allegations of certain images found on Gates’ laptop, Melinda Gates issued only the words “No comment”, to waiting journalists, as she stepped out of a limousine at the White House. Mrs Gates, who is rumoured to be reverting to her maiden name, was filmed making her famous smirking face as she was welcomed into the building… Read more »
so you are or are not the real Mike Yeadon?
Well, I’m me & no one else
That’s not an answer.
Ok. Please ask me a question. I’ll answer it honestly.
It doesn’t matter. You are a great contributor whether you are the real Mike Yeadon or just a smart guy who chose his name as your handle. I prefer the former of course, because in this time of lies, even good lies are irritating.
Best of luck to you either way.
Could the explanation be:
-the delta variant is less harmful, hence fewer deaths
-thus no reason to have a vaccine that is not without risk and barely works
I tend to go along with this view but I don’t think I can find anything to back it up other than this is what viruses seem to do ie become more transmissable and less deadly as they evolve to acquire more hosts before herd immunity nullifies it anyway.
Would I be wrong?
That is observably the direction of travel, particularly with respiratory viruses, where symptoms are a critical component towards epidemic spreading.
It’s not possible to prove changes in transmissibility over short periods of time,, especially if the difference isn’t stark.
But here’s an interesting thing: there are more that 40 separate viruses which can infect the human respiratory tract.
Where did they come from? Most evolutionary biologists whom I’ve heard on this question suggest this same, mutation related matters as you summarised it.
[Person’s name] ratchet is apparently amongst the molecular mechanisms.
Don’t believe them if they assert “this variant appears to be killing younger people, not older people as before”.
Thank you for your reply.
I’m still planning to tough it out in resisting a vaxx.
That’s despite exhortations from wife, daughter, business partner and some friends.
One day, we’ll all look back on these times and laugh…do you think?
Not laugh.
Weep.
The name is Muller. I’m not sure it is his ratchet that’s inexorably increasing transmissibility & reducing lethality.
Clare Craig is saying little or no evidence it is more transmissable.
“Many news outlets have picked up this story, but few have drawn the obvious conclusion: that this further undermines the case for vaccine passports as it suggests vaccinated people are no less likely to pass on the virus than unvaccinated people. “
im starting to think that you and Toby are on the spectrum. Not the spectrum of autism, but the spectrum of cognitive dissonance. In this spectrum you are incapable of connecting the dots between real world data and real world consequence. It is so obvious, at this point, that the so called “vaccinations” and the so called “ health passports” have nothing to do with saving or protecting the population that to keep pretending this is our collective leaders cock-ups is becoming counterproductive.
THIS IS NOT ABOUT A VIRUS.
WAKE THE F UP.
It’s impossible. I’ve tried several times. I’m completely unable to persuade either of them that the whole thing is got-up theatre intended to herd everyone onto a digital ID system. Every one of the central driving narrative points snout this virus is a lie. Almost 200 countries, close together in time, discarded their pandemic preparedness plans & adopted a set of lies, the SAME LIES, everywhere in the world. Some of what I call “Covid19 lies” are so obviously lies, it’s impossible that public health officials could miss that they’re lies. That’s one strand of evidence that told me it was fraud, long before I had a motive, Some of the more floridly mendacious examples are asymptomatic transmission, masks and the misuse of the PCR technique. It’s not possible to construct a summary narrative history of this event to the present without either missing out large chunks of it (so as not to have to deal with the reality) or by pretending things are very different than what they actually are. A psychiatrist stated that most people like to orientate themselves to others. That minimises stress. They simply won’t take in information which looks set to pop their bubble. Instead… Read more »
All true. But can you confirm that you are the ex Pfizer exec? To choose that name and not be him I find disturbing. But can you at least confirm you are just using his name because he is so important in this battle?
Not sure how I’d prove it except I own the Suzuki GT380 who’s four exhausts brag overly. It’s merely a three cylinder machine!
I’m talking about the first big video interview in my shed, which sadly is now empty.
Ok I’ll take your word for it. Great to see you Mike. You are a star.
My forum ID shows
Group: Registered
Joined: 2020-09-07
It’s Dr Yeadon alright. Don’t you recognise his voice? It’s typically modest of him to comment on a forum like this.
I trust very little these days. But it doesn’t really matter.
Dr M, I wish to put on record my thanks for your insight. For all those who doubt who you are, I recognise the ease with which blog posts can be hijacked, but I also consider DS/TY would not allow posts with a “Mike Yeadon” tag to come from a differently registered log in…. I am a deep sceptic about many many things for highly personal reasons. I am not a scientist and I have to sift by logical, lateral thinking what I read. Very little of what has happened since circa late autumn 2019 has made sense to me. Your steers and those of your peers have enabled me to join the dots to some extent although I remain baffled by some of the very high level science. I follow “the money”, the “patents”, Reiner Fuellmich’s evidence gathering, Del Bigtree’s expose of the Fauci emails, D4CE, the involvement of GAVI and Gates, Farrar, Vallance, Drosten, Ferguson …..I also follow Astrid Stuckelberger for example, a very brave and feisty lady. I know and acknowledge the acid test why you, your D4CE colleagues and all the other dissenting voices, continue to express your opinions and share your knowledge – if other… Read more »
The biggest bias in these figures which has not been taken into account is that it is very likely that the percentage of unvaccinated over-50s getting tested may be far smaller than that of the vaccinated over-50s. ie any over-50 still unvaccinated is very likely to be sceptical/relatively unworried and/or disinclined to bother with any of the drama, including testing, and may even have actively avoided getting tested, ( as I have ).
And therefore there may be many unvaccinated over-50s “catching” the virus/who would test positive for it, and may even have been ill to some degree with it, but don’t die of it, and don’t appear in these figures at all. If they “could” be counted and if there were a significant number of them their survival would seriously erode the apparent effectiveness of the vaccines.
Here is a 79 year old 3 times a week golfer, who has never been muzzled, tested, or submitted to the gene therapy.
“She who just be obeyed” my 73 year old ex fiance of 52 years ago is a similar realist, even though she does wear a muzzle most times.
So we should be “included out “of those statistics.
Yes, in fact it’s not a “should”, we *are* “included out” of these statistics, and yet it’s possible that many of us would test positive ( if we were obliged to take one ) and/or may have been ill with it, but our survival is not being included in the stats, and is therefore making the vaccines look more effective than they actually are.
We need to know how many of those infected and dying, vaxxed or not, had natural immunity. PHE is curiously uninterested in this statistic.
That too, yes.
Potentially…I tend to find that people are either all-in to the lifestyle is masks/jabs/slime/screening (it’s not testing) or they’re sceptics of all of it though.*
*They only tend to cave when presented with a situation where they do not believe they have the option to refuse these things, or don’t wish to cause too much of a confrontation.
Exactly. A subgroup of people who are thus excluded from/not measured by the statistics. And whose existence, if it was recognised/measured, would make the vaccines look a lot less effective.
Yes absolutely. Same people who don’t participate in this “pinging” malarkey. Sizeable proportion of population not represented anywhere in all these reported numbers.
To an extent yes, but there’s also a sizeable group who are against most of the theatre but think that the “vaccines” are the saviours of humanity!
That’s what frightened me, so many people with whom I had suitably sceptical/cyncial/sarcastic conversations rushed for the “jab”.
However one interprets the data one thing is clear; it doesn’t matter if you catch the virus as long as you then don’t get sick. So the fact that vaccination significantly reduces your risk of getting sick is what matters. And if you do get sick you need the right treatment which is what I have been saying for 18 months.
A ‘vaccine’ that does change immunity ot transmissionability is not a vaccine.
There are other safer methods of treating any ill effects of catching this virus ( and they cost a lot less).
This was very very clear from the original trial results of the ‘vaccines’ in late 2020. Nothing has changed, its just that more ‘real world’ evidence is now available.
However they have been used to impose biotech IDs to control and discriminate society, which clearly was always the original intention.
Correct. This is more like a 6 months long lasting paracetomol.
Calling it a vaccine was deliberately and crminally misleading marketing and PR, nothing else.
Still doing so is either stupid or criminal.
“So the fact that vaccination significantly reduces your risk of getting sick is what matters”
Does it?
How is mortality being defined here? If it’s the usual “positive test within 28 days” then isn’t all this somewhat unreliable?
Unreliable, but the same type of unreliability is being applied to two groups, the vaxxed and unvaxxed … however there is another unreliability involved here, which is that the statistics assume the over-50s *un*vaccinated get tested as often as the over-50 vaxxed.
I suspect that is not true, at all, and that there is a subgroup of unvaxxed over-50s who are simply not being counted, despite the fact that many of them might test positive, ( if they were obliged for some reason to participate in the drama that till now they have avoided participating in ), and/or may have been ill, and have not died, which survival ( if counted ) would reduce the figures for apparent vaccine ( mitigation/lower mortality ) effectiveness significantly.
Yes, good points. I certainly fall into that subgroup – over 50, unvaxxed and never tested.
The unreliability as you say is applied to both groups, but isn’t it relevant to Absolute, as opposed to Relative, risk reduction?
Also for a fair comparison between the two groups you would need to adjust for their health and age band profile. If that profile is quite different between the two groups, then the effect of the vaccine isn’t the only thing at play.
Absolutely! There are far too many variables, many unknown, to draw firm conclusions about this set of data in particular. But I think that generally the conclusion can be drawn that the vaccines are not much use ( for anything, except perhaps a couple of months of ever so slightly reduced mortality, maybe ) and are dangerous.
Data is unclear, everything around the vaccines stinks to high heaven, long term safety undetermined. Easy decision for me, for now.
Do you think that if I went to Florida and claimed asylum there on the basis that the UK government had a deliberate policy of persecuting the unvaccinated that they would let me remain until it was safe for me to return ?
Many people are fleeing persecution around the world and heading for safe havens to escape their tyrannical gvernments – I feel as though I could be fleeing Britain and joining them soon.
While immigrants boats are crossing the channel and heading for Britain we could see boatloads of unvaccinated Brits escaping Stalag Britain and heading the other way bound for Florida.
I recently left U.K. for this reason, I think winter is going to be truly awful & terrifying. I am not talking about the virus.
To where?
I am seriously considering the same. But can we be sure deSantis will hold up? Plus it’s not v practical for me. Sweden would be better.
I am going to message you on the messaging system: would appreciate it if you could check it out
You’d be better off escaping to Dartmoor! It’s been possible to pretty well ignore the whole garbage from here, right from the start.
To my mind, JayBee’s probably correct. Despite everything, and all the brainwashed sheepies, there’s a core of resistance in England which the enemy are going to find very hard to beat or wear down.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/canadas-covid-concentration-camps/
short video of camps in the middle of nowhere in Canada.
I think the UK, or rather England, was and is currently the second best Western place to be after Sweden. Florida’s freedom is very much dependent upon 1 person, whom I now deem to be highly at risk of assassination. The USA itself is a total basket case on the way to becoming a pseudo-progressive, bankrupt authoritarian hellhole, so at some point that will likely spill over into Florida, as the increase in no jab, no jab mandates by businesses there shows, still in contrast to the UK, where this will be much harder to implemement and execute legally. The reason for my optimism is a) the general still relatively liberal attitude and politeness of the people (outside of the chattering class)- I’ve never worn a mask, and have always been treated very politely in the UK, but I’ve often been aggressively ‘lectured’ in Germany, despite having the required medical exemption by a doctor, which many businesses have illegally decided to ignore and whose illegal ignorance corrupt judges have then upheld- and b) above all, the common law based self-exemption from the mask mandate, which shall now be extended to any vaxx pass and/or vaccination mandate. https://www.nhsx.nhs.uk/covid-19-response/using-the-nhs-covid-pass/#exemptions The EU countries… Read more »
Well, the UK is better in some ways than most of continental Europe, though opposition in France especially seems encouraging.
As for the USA, it’s variable. What is notable to me is that more or less the only place in the rich world not to impose any covid related restrictions at all was South Dakota. Other US states have now said they are not doing it again and seem to mean it. I think they still have a stronger culture than we do of an instinctive suspicion of big government and state intervention in private and business life, though doutbless it is waning and at the Federal level things are pretty bad.
I agree. It takes some digging, but Will’s article is based on PHE data that is freely available. Yes, the UK government and their stooges are spinning like tops but the agencies aren’t withholding the data in the way Fauci is in the states. The covid pass exemption is a very positive development; I think it shows the government knows that mandatory vaccine passports won’t make it through the British courts.
But, most importantly, so many vaccinated people are getting covid (thankfully, whether by coincidence or cause, mildly) that they can see that a vaccine passport doesn’t make any sense. That one of them is the gobshite in chief, Moron doesn’t hurt either.
Obviously I don’t know what is planned, but planning is clearly happening everywhere. The schedule for steadily restricting access to society for the unvaccinated in France runs out to October. A friend in Nice confirms that this is the generally understood schedule. She is unvaccinated & fears she won’t be able to continue working & that obtaining food will soon become problematic. If you were to assess the current position in U.K. and could decide to magic any set of “measures”, you’d lift all of them. None are objectively justified & all-causes mortality has been unremarkable since the January 2021 pulse abated. The authorities continue to lie & suppress effective treatments. The best way to end this, even if you do assume the virus is as advertised, is permit normal daily living to return & offer HCQ/zinc/azithromycin/ivermectin as required. That way the last fraction of susceptible people would acquire robust & durable immunity. Why aren’t they doing this? I spoke to seven U.K. professors of subjects which include immunology & though they all but one say I’m a conspiracy theorist in terms of end game, all agreed with my analysis of the basic immunology. So back to U.K. They’re clearly… Read more »
Sadly I note that a digital solution to declaring exemption is being developed 😕 so this “freedom “ to self declare is going to be shut down soon.
How would that work for people without smart phones?
God bless you, Mike Yeadon!
He already is, although it may not seem like it at times.
“Do you think that if I went to Florida and claimed asylum there “
Your problem is that immigration and asylum in the US are controlled by the coronapanic zealots at federal level, not the relatively sane and honest Republican state authorities.
I don’t follow the logic used to injection effectiveness here. There appears to be higher everything in the injected and no medical basis for cases, so at best inference?
The number of people vaccinated is higher than the number of people not vaccinated, so this analysis accounts for that.
I thought this was a good post over at the Telegraph regarding the virus, vaccines and vaccine passports – I can totally relate to what this guy is saying completely and know where he is coming from on this whole covid farce – so I thought I would share it if you hadn’t read it yet … Mark Smith 5 Aug 2021 10:23PM I’m white middle aged and a business owner.. If you have actually worked outside your house for the last 18mth you see that all is not what it seems with the pandemic. I genuinely know of only a handful of people that have had anything more than the mildest symptoms from covid. But an awful lot of people that have felt terrible from the vaccines. I haven’t been cowering at home, I’ve been working on building sites through the south of England through the whole of it. Why would I want a vaccine, I have been living in a parallel world to what is reported in the news, where life has been normal until I look at the papers 99.9% of the people I have know have got vaccinated so that they can go on holiday. How’s… Read more »
Parallel World, exactly..
The reduced mortality and severity can also be explained more simply by lower pathogenicity and lethality of the concomitantly more transmissable bug strain. Jabericitousness is not needed.
Eradication of Covid Is a Dangerous and Expensive Fantasy It seemed to work in New Zealand and Australia, but now ruinous, oppressive lockdowns are back.
Much of the pathology underlying Covid policy arises from the fantasy that it is possible to eradicate the virus. Capitalizing on pandemic panic, governments and compliant media have used the lure of zero-Covid to induce obedience to harsh and arbitrary lockdown policies and associated violations of civil liberties.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/zero-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdowns-china-australia-new-zealand-11628101945#comments_sector
This headline gives away the lie. Government policy is not, nor has ever been about eliminating the virus. None of the measures has been sensible or effective. It is only about exercising total control over the population.
Apart from good points in comments about the smarter more sceptical people not getting tested regardless of a sniffle – the elephant in the globe is the evidence for high vaccine related deaths – the latest coming from autopsies carried out in Germany showing up to 40% of claimed vaccine caused deaths are genuine and alarming. Do the maths based on 10x ‘official’ reports = a v high number – and across healthy younger people who would not get v sick from covid – this is the crime and it should now be called our. Do not vaccinate anyone under 80 who is healthy https://freewestmedia.com/2021/08/03/german-chief-pathologist-sounds-alarm-on-fatal-vaccine-injuries/
I’m astonished that the elderly, with compromised immune systems and underlying comorbidities, BUT vaccinated, are still dying.
Freedom passes not about injections, they are about obedience, surveillance and control, those who refuse are outcasts and must be made an example of under the world government forum to which Boris Johnson is rather like Pontius Pilate, just the Administrator to a region.
Or possibly he’s a bit more Herod wanting to kill all the babies?
I still think there’s more conclusions that can be drawn from this graph… Take last month – why do all the alpha infections have a ct value of 18-20 – indicating that they are likely genuine infectious cases.
But the Delta infections have a ct value of 30-32 – past the point of clinical significance?
Am I missing something?
And if these ct values are available to PHE then why aren’t they reported to healthcare providers?
Would be interesting to see the age profile of the 339 / 167 vaxed/unvaxed deaths.
eg. if the unvaxed average age of death is significantly higher, then old-age will be a bigger factor rather than any alleged protective effect from the vaxes.
Also, I wonder how deaths due to the vax are classified? eg. if you fall ill and die within a few days of having the vax, how is this counted?
Another confounding factor is the PHE claim that 88% of over 50s are vaxed. We know that the actual UK population is 10-20% higher than official government figures which will further dilute the claimed vax effectiveness.
If that’s true, it just does (partially) what it says on the tin. The fact that many politicians pretend that it does something brilliant, and are attempting to abuse the methodology in various ways is a different story. That said, I used the term ‘partially’, ‘cos I suspect it doesn’t express the whole truth on the ‘tin’ at all. Probably wouldn’t stand up in court, for that reason.
I have a feeling that eventually we will all come to realise that this was never about a virus but rather, Control of people, societies, ie the NWO. If we allow it
I think those of us here came to realise that a long time ago; the rest of the population – I’m not so sure if or when their eyes will open.
There’s a very important caveat – deaths within 14 days of the first injection won’t count as vaxxed, yes? So if the vaxxing roll out during this period is increasing deaths, as we know they did in the elderly, they will be counted as deaths and proof of efficacy. Please point out if I am wrong.
I hope you’re right about the reduction in deaths for the 50+, however I’m skeptical.
First Pfizer own study showed no statistical difference. Yes it was small but if the signal was as big as 77% it should be easily visible. Maybe age of the test participants can explain this, I don’t know.
Second, all cause excess deaths have been below baseline since march for UK. This suggests to me lot of 50+ “dry wood” was spent in the peak around January.
3rd, this is summer and excess deaths shows not much going on really. I think we have to wait until fall/winter when the level of susceptible are back up to normal levels and a proper “wave” before we see what actual protection these vaccines have.
Note: I’m also starting to wonder what these PCR tests actually test for. The virus mutates from a fall/spring loving variant, to a traditional winter variant to a summer variant?? And this story about the “virus haven’t been properly isolated” which I dismissed at first seem more and more real. Are there more than one virus we’re seeing? Is this another HIV/Aids PCR fiasco? (Or on purpose..)
Please go to D4CE and review the online symposium held at the end of July; there you will find a thorough explanation of the Cormen-Drosten RT PCR test regime amongst other presentations most of which I found completely illuminating, very informative – they pull no punches: Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 1: The False Pandemic … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session I : The False Pandemic with Prof. Martin … 05.05 The SARS-CoV-2 Genome: Evidence of its Artificial Origin / …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 2: The Going Direct Reset … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session II: The Going Direct Reset with Catherine … … Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 2: The Going Direct Reset …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 3: First Do No Harm … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session III: First Do No Harm with Michael Palmer …
Doctors for Covid Ethics Symposium – Session 4: The Hour of Justice … Symposium took place on July 29th and 30th. Session IV: The Hour of Justice with Patrick …