Why is the Government Claiming “One in Three” Test and Trace Contacts Become Infected When its Own Data Shows That to Be False?
In a desperate effort to encourage people to self-isolate when pinged by the NHS Covid app or contacted by Test and Trace – even cancelling their wedding day if necessary – the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said yesterday that: “One in three people contacted either by Test and Trace or the app go on to develop coronavirus.”
There’s just one problem with this latest nugget of fear-based nudgery: it’s not true.
Test and Trace get in touch with people’s contacts and ask them to self-isolate. The proportion of those contacts who become infected is known as the secondary attack rate (SAR). Public Health England publishes the data on this SAR from Test and Trace data in its Technical Briefings, so we know what it is. The most recent estimate for the SAR of the Delta variant (in June) is that 10.3% of an infected person’s household contacts become infected (the SAR for non-household contacts is considerably lower).
How, then, can it be true that one in three – 33% – of people contacted by Test and Trace or the app go on to develop coronavirus? That’s claiming the SAR of SARS-CoV-2 is around 33%, but the Government’s own published data says it’s more like 10%.
Can the Government back up its claims, and explain why it is stating that the SAR of Covid is more than three times the figure published in its own data?
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The relevant data is in table 6 of TB18.
It is the non-travel, non-household contact data. (household data is not relevant as you don’t need T&T to tell you that someone in your household is infected).
This is 5.7%, or about 1 in 20.
I think this is rather high, and is biased by close work contacts (again, where you’d know if someone you work with was infected).
The performance of T&T for non-household non-work contacts isn’t specifically given, but is indicated somewhat by the ‘travel’ contact performance — 1.7%
The performance is T&T outside of ‘obvious links’ is absolutely dire. It causes disruption way out of proportion of any benefits it provides.
But, like the vaccines, the government are pushing it hard, because if all the things that government have done have been useless, what’s the point in having them in charge.
Finally, this terribly infectious virus, where even a fleeting contact will cause certain doom, infected about 1 in 10 of people who share a house with someone known to be infected. This is incredibly low — it is clear to me that there’s rather more going on with its transmission than is suggested by government.
My impression was that such low household secondary attack rates are normal for colds and flu’s and presumably that’s due to population resistance.
Yes, that seems reasonable.
So why the mania?
Usual. Mass hysteria, conformism, driven by fear propaganda, virtue signalling etc etc.
Well the Delta scariant has a CFR (0.2%) lower than Flu and vanishing in the under 50s.
Perhaps they just like the idea of routinely tracking
peoplecattle.Making sure they haven’t been having too much to think.
Anecdotally I agree even 1 in 20 feels rather high. I know of many (30+) who’ve had to isolate (mainly parents of children and hospitality staff) but hearing they then went onto develop Covid is very thin on the ground – I know of one case but that’s the downside of forcing healthy people to isolate in the same house as an infected person. It’s slightly mad!
The case was a mother testing positive (had the cough) so forcing who two daughters to isolate. They worked in hospitality and the pub had to close due to lack of staff. The two developed symptoms towards to end of the isolation period so then had to isolate – and so did their mother.
Forcing healthy people to isolate with the ill just in case they become infected – come on, people must agree that’s mad?
That’s a useful summary of the reality (if you’ve got links to the various research, that’d be useful).
Once again, we see the domination of the FEAR meme rather than information in government policy.
20 – 90 people removed from productive activity for every infected contact.
From here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf
Note that there’s an update due today, if they can be bothered to release it (they don’t release TBs as often as they used to, because it takes more effort these days to make sure that data doesn’t creep in that doesn’t support their policies. For, example, they mucked up with TB18 because it includes a graph showing that there was a significant rise in mutations in covid at the point where they started their mass jabbings worldwide (figure 10). I believe that this only got included because it looks as though mutations fell at the point of the jabs starting and IME the senior managers that sign-off these documents tend to be failed scientists that don’t actually know how to interpret data properly. I’d note that they did choose a really crazy way of presenting these data — look at the ‘supporting data’ spreadsheet for TB18 if you’d like to check that it really does show increased mutation rate at that point).
Lying bastard politicians lie to us shock!
What’s actually still shocking is just how few businessmen, and other interested, articulate parties, are prepared to stand up and point out how fatuous this test and trace system is and how much damage it is doing for so little benefit, and call for it to be dropped, immediately.
That’s a measured of just how meek, propagandised, cowed and conformist our population has become.
It’s just another Biofacist method of dividing up the working class – they want people to get fed up and delete it themselves, that way it’ll be these peoples fault whenever there’s a new “surge”.
Because this is well past being about disease and vaccines.
Why? Because liars tell lies. They lie when they breathe, while trying to stop other people from telling the truth by, as far as possible, clamping rags over their faces to stop them from breathing
I suspect if you include contacts made in hospital, you get a very high rate indeed in that setting.
Has this been posted yet? Safe Pass for supermarket made official. Cyprus targets unvaccinated and people with no proof of recovery as rules tighten after infection spike. Grocery shoppers in the Republic of Cyprus may no longer shop at a supermarket if they do not have a Safe Pass, based on the latest decree published on Monday by the health ministry affecting all domains of social life in response to last week’s surge in daily infections. The Cypriot health ministry published a 30-page decree on Monday amending the government’s controversial Safe Pass, essentially making rules stricter starting Tuesday morning on July 20 through July 31. A Safe Pass legally requires people over the age of 12 to have in possession physical proof they have been vaccinated with at least one dose three weeks prior, tested negative for the coronavirus during a rapid or PCR test conducted in the last 72 hours, or officially cleared by state authorities no more than six months since the last time they tested positive for COVID. Starting Tuesday morning at 5am, retail stores including supermarkets are no longer accessible without a Safe Pass or EU Covid Digital Certificate, along with indoor and outdoor spaces where… Read more »
Time for them to forcibly remove their health junta.
Segregation in Europe, shameful
I hope they have decent grocery delivery systems then. Otherwise starvation surely beckons.
Home delivery services are still at an embryonic stage in Cyprus, nothing like the scope in the UK.
They’ve created a rule that ensures that the the vaccinated asymptomatic spreaders will increase in numbers.
The dogmatic belief in the power of the vaccines to solve this pandemic is extraordinary.
I wonder what level of evidence will be required to dissuade them of this belief, because the emerging evidence showing that vaccination has made things worse (vaccine escape) and is now helping spread (asymptomatic spreaders) isn’t getting through at all.
What makes you think they believe the vaccines will solve this pandemic?
Isn’t it much safer to assume they know very well that the vaccines will NOT solve this pandemic, and that they also know that they have bet the house and their reputations on the vaccines so they cannot be allowed to be seen to fail under any circumstances.
The emerging evidence will not be allowed to get through, the evil will be covered up.
Coming soon to a place near you, that is your own high street and shopping malls including supermarkets. The UK Governments ‘Covipass’ or whatever that lying shithead Zahawi calls it, is modelled along the same lines as that in Cyprus Its use will be ‘encouraged’ initially but Government has reserved the right to make it compulsory. It will be just like Cyprus, first large venues, then progressively smaller ones. And, based on complaints by the sheeple about supermarket staff not wearing masks, the sheeple themselves will demand it so that they feel that they are in a ‘safe environment’. The only saving grace for the poor Cypriots is that as of now it doesn’t apply to kiosks and small shops like bakeries.
Lies, lies and more damn lies.
Hold them accountable for their consistent lies.
No surprise. It has come to the point now where I am surprised if any of these fantasists tell the truth. They are as believable as the Met’s “Nick”.
In simple terms, it’s crap misuse of a technology that was not developed with that in mind, and an element of opportunism as well.
A teacher I know and her pupils have had constant pings, none have been ill so the statement One in three people contacted either by Test and Trace or the app go on to develop coronavirus.” appears very wide of the mark. The Question is why they want to keep up this sort of rhetoric? They should be FORCED to provide proof
BECAUSE THEY ARE LYING.
No: it is just creativity!
Why? Good question. The increasingly unavoidable answer is that there is deep malice afoot.
Why are they lying? Why has Spector and the Zoe app given up any semblance of objectivity and independence? My suspicion is that they need to maintain the impression there is a pandemic so they can maintain the emergency license for the (non) vaccine and maintain their coercion and manipulation. I think that is part of a concerted plan to make the unvaccinated, control group as small as possible because they are shitting themselves about ADE, as vitamin D levels fall into the winter.
It is a compelling argument.
If there are no unvaccinated in the population people will find it much more difficult to work out that it is only the vaccinated getting ill.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/lockdown-summit-the-government-has-frightened-us-senseless/ The comments are also worrying
It would be very helpful to Govt during the current ‘crisis’ if everyone could stop asking for evidence. Thank you.
Anyone see Johnson Senior on GB news last night, allegedly Johnson Junior, does know what he’s doing and why he’s doing it
Why should we expect anything except lies or inaccurate propaganda from Johnson. I can’t wait for the next election when we can kick this self-serving, corrupt, lying buffoon out.
Agreed, but the rest of the so called opposition are even worse.
Because Corona-marketing is done by professional PR people reusing what worked (or seemed to work) in the past. They’ve used one in three for the alleged number of asymptotic carriers. This is still about asymptotic carriers, IOW, healthy people, hence, they’re using one in three again. It’s not supposed to be true, just effective (which necessitates easy to remember).
“Why is the Government Claiming “One in Three” Test and Trace Contacts Become Infected When its Own Data Shows That to Be False?”
Listen very carefully I shall say this only once!
Because they are filthy, lying, shit-faced bastards!
Simple!
why are they desperately trying to destroy the economy? or am i being thick?