Vaccines Not Protecting Over-60s in Scotland From Being Hospitalised with COVID-19
A reader (an academic economist) has analysed the Scottish Covid data and reached a depressing conclusion: Covid vaccination seems to offer the over-60s little protection from severe illness.
Wasn’t busy today so I decided to collect all the Scottish data and do a bit of mining. Many of the datasets are not properly organised and are downloaded from separate parts of the Government website, so I wondered if they were missing something.
Lo and behold, they were – something big. The reason it was hard to track down was because the government does not publish positive test results by age. This is a problem because testing in Scotland – and across the UK – is far higher this summer than it was last year. Lateral flow tests are everywhere now and people upload their results to the Government app. Only neurotics were doing this last year, but now everyone is doing it.
Okay, so I managed to construct a positive test rate for the over-60s. This can then be compared to hospitalisations. If hospitalisations are low relative to the positive test rate in over-60s then we can have some confidence that the vaccines are protecting this group. This means that even if they seem borderline useless at preventing case growth, they would at least be a prophylactic against severe cases of the virus.
But as you can see from the table above, there is no evidence that hospitalisations are lower for the over-60s that are testing positive and so no evidence that the vaccines protect the over-60s from severe illness.
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It’s not the vaccine that provides protection, it’s the Vaccine Passport.
And the mask. Don’t forget the mask
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And it’s not the effectiveness of the vaccines that matter, just that you’ve had it (twice!).
With a booster and more to look forward to, yippee.
“Lateral flow tests are everywhere now and people upload their results to the Government app. Only neurotics were doing this last year, but now everyone is doing it.”
Not everyone. I’ve still never taken a covid test, and I’m hoping to last out until my time is up.
No mask, no tests, no “vaccine”. The creed of the free man.
(A lot easier to live by if you are retired and don’t have to jump through panicker hoops to earn a living.)
but if they say everyones doing it , then its true right?
Sadly I know a fair few people who are doing it, some bullied by work, some because they think it’s the right thing to do
If everyone is doing it, everyone is neurotic.
Well done, Project Fear.
because they are a fraud
I suspect they hoped to roll out the vaccines faster than this so that people didn’t find out until it was too late.
Probably also the virus was intended to be a little more deadly than this to encourage vaccine take-up. Or maybe they just underestimated the capabilities of the grade 1 human immune system when they were doing their gain-of-function work in Wuhan.
Good comment. The indecent rush to jabby everyone when the death stats don’t back up the pandemic should have alerted even the most gullible.
Also the unblinding of the trials, meaning that it’s now pretty much impossible for the vaccines to complete clinical trials in the approved manner.
I think you underestimate the most gullible: they are clearly now world-class. Well done, the Northern Dictator!
I don’t understand the logic
WHAT LOGIC???
I’m not sure I understand the logic either. I can see that if hospitalisations turn down next week you can see that the pattern is similar to the last 2 peaks but unless you know more about the hospitalised then it’s no silver bullet.
Thanks. Yes that’s pretty much my thoughts too.
If we assume that the positivity rate in the over 60s is proportional to the total number of ‘cases’ which under some major assumptions might be a reasonable asssumption (e.g. that those being tested were same mix of symptomatic/asymptomatic throughout).
And if we assume that the hospitalisation rate per ‘case’ would be the same in all 3 peaks without vaccination.
And if we see that the relative height of the orange and blue peaks is similar in all 3 peaks.
We might then try and claim that because the hospitalisation rate in the third peak is similar to peaks 1 and 2 therefore vaccination doesn’t work at reducing hospitalisation because if vaccination worked the third orange peak would be lower.
But I’m not impressed by the myriad of assumptions needed to get you to the conclusion at all.
I’d be very wary about Scottish over-60s data. If you live to 60 in Scotland you’ve probably got co-morbidity. What you have here is just people ‘with’ which is also nosocomial.
Is that the deep fried mars bars , buckie or haggis?
I blame the weather.
It’s certainly proof that a lot of people are being tested and classed as a hospital admission when they go in. What are they being admitted for, that’s the big question.
Zackley
Although, tbf, if you live to 60 in Scotland, you must have a pretty good constitution!
It means you left a pretty good constitution scattered across several dozen pubs. (Wolley Dug, Tilted Wig, Suncourt, The Lang Spoon to name but a few that I can remember. Most I can’t.
You can see the vaccines pretty much do jack for the over 50’s in the latest Scariants of Concern data.
Lookee here
And here
All I can see from these tables is that most people >50 are vaccinated. Do you have any other shocking news to reveal?
If you post a table it would help if you also posted a reference. I’ve no idea what I’m looking at, whether it’s authoritative or not. It would also help if you could add sufficient commentary to illuminate the point you’re trying to make.
Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: technical briefings – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
It appears to be attendance at emergency care – ie only people going to an ED
This is very interesting and significant. If the patterns are correct, then, with three or so “vaccines” in use, the trends should also be apparent in other countries. I appreciate that the testing regimes are markedly different, but there must surely be some way of seeing whether the Scottish patterns are evident elsewhere, which they logically must be.
Scotland is a low Vit D country too.
It’s surprising how the significance of Vit D has been under-reported!
The most important vitamin ever!
Meh, deliberately sidelined. When Covid hit the scene and there was no data, I read up on Vit D. I have been supplementing for over a year now. Study after study, and a meta-analysis showed an increase boost to your immune system.
I paid special attention to any news on Vit D. And there was hardly any. Indeed, Matt Hancock on 2 separate occasions said at the dispatch box that there is no evidence for Vit D to help with Covid.
He is a f**king c**nt. Of all the things he implemented with no evidence, ignoring Vit D benefits of already established science was shocking to say the least.
I am certain that cretin wanted to get the death rate up.
Same here. I did a bit of homework on this issue, and there has been a lack of publicity about it. However, the NHS site entries have doubled the recommended daily intake for supplements, and other places – notably German language ones – have doubled it again, so 4 times as much as the older guidelines. Thus from 5 μg to 10 μg to 20 μg daily minimum. All a bit vague about how much exposure time to ultra violet B (like outside today) as well.
In simple terms, there is a lot of uncertainty about the numbers to use, and the functionality that is performed within our natural system. Still much to be learnt, even by the ‘experts’.
Without knowing the vaccination status of those going into hospital and those testing positive this doesnt seem to prove anything to me?
I struggle with all this data until we actually know what proportion of admittances are “with” not “of” covid.
Superficially, if the number of cases in the country doubles the the number of people admitted with, not of, covid are also likely to double even though they may be admitted with a heart attack, cancer or whatever. I think…….
Noone ever really pretended that vaccines completely stopped you getting covid – it reduced your chances and reduced your symptoms- ie reduced hospital admissions “of”
A conspiracy nut would say something like, We are subject to the biggest unaccountable medical experiment in history. Then again, they would say that.
Hmm, vaccines not protecting the over 60s from hospitalisation? Well, well, well.
Perhaps the vaccines are contributing towards hospitalisation?
Surely not, as allegedly they are ‘safe and effective’.
Then again, perhaps lots of the over 60s have undiagnosed or mistreated underlying conditions that have been neglected due to the wonderful NHS having an unhealthy focus on Covid?
Or all of the above.
Odysee exclusive: Mark Sexton’s Speech in Parliament Square, 19th of July
FULL speech.
https://odysee.com/@ResistanceGB:f/Mark-Sexton-Retired-UK-Policeman-Speaks-Outside-Parliament-to-Passionate-Applause:4
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
HOME EDUCATION – Ex-Primary School Teacher on Resistance GB YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ5oS2ejye0
https://www.hopesussex.co.uk/our-mission
Given the significant increase in testing over the period, is it reasonable to compare the positivity rate over the period?
I am sympathetic to your situation — the authorities are trying very hard to make access to meaningful data rather difficult, particularly if there’s any hint that the data shows the vaccines in anything less than a glowing light.
Isnt this what Geert Vanden Bossche has been saying will happen if you mass vaccinate?
Variants are created that eventually render the vaccines useless and morbidity rises again. At which point they say it’s because not everyone is vaccinated and the whole thing goes round and round, and the only way to stop it is with a sterilising vaccine.
We’re going to be in this state for years.
Mass vaccination was and is an epic blunder. Vaccinate the old and vulnerable and let everyone else get natural immunity, and treat any serious cases in hospital. That’s all that needed to be done as far as I can tell from my laymans position
They’ve already said it if you care to look:
” The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.”
SAGE 93 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 July 2021 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
Yes that is the case. Its not a ‘blunder’ they knew exactly the consequences, its deliberate, they want to create a situation of never ending jabs and collapse of the immune system.
Ok but who is “they”? What I don’t get is how every western govt around the world is doing the same. Surely “it” can’t be that coorrdinated?
The science is known, it’s not new. This is how viruses behave.
I seriously can’t wrap my head around a global conspiracy
Get has been proven right.
Absolutely correct about mass vaccination with a leaky vaccine during a pandemic creating exactly the right conditions for rapid vaccine escape.
But even about the evolution creating more infectious variants for the unvaccinated, which I wasn’t sure about.
The current infectious wave is just a test-run for this coming winter. When we see very high serious covid rates in the younger adults, let alone the vulnerable, and horrendous death rates, this will all be because they decided to vaccinate the world rather than only the vulnerable.
If they’d stuck with the vulnerable the vaccines would still offer protection. If they’d not started jabbing the healthy-middle-aged we’d have low deaths this winter. If the politicians with their lovely degrees in history or philosophy hadn’t used all of their powers to brainwash the population into believing that the vaccines would solve all of the problems of covid we’d actually be able to relax lockdown and get back to normal.
But they didn’t, and because the problems introduced by the vaccines (original antigenic sin, vaccine escape, probably ADE) will hang around we’ll probably find it rather difficult to get back to normal.
this is why I firmly believe there will be another lockdown in the winter.
I am always dubious when we have to take an individual’s word about the source of the data and some indication of how they have come to their conclusions. Ie identify your sources and show your calculations.
As a resident Scot, I am quite happy with the decision (so far) not to make vaccinations mandatory for care workers and also (seemingly) not to mandate vaccination passports for clubs.
To be honest, this does strike me as quite surprising and I’m not convinced it’ll stay that way, but it does at least buy us some more time
Most people in hospital are probably over 60. How many of them are in hospital because they have Covid and how many have been admitted for something else entirely, and have either ‘tested positive’ on admission or have caught it whilst there?
People are in hospital because they are ill. That means that their immune systems are probably weak. They are also in a hot, airless environment full of other ill people. Of course they catch things.
Until statistics differentiate between those in hospital because of Covid, and those for whom it is incidental to the real reason for their admission, they are meaningless.
All I see is a chart with two lines. So, where is the data and where is the analysis of the academic economist “reader”? Oh, I forgot, on this very “sceptical” site such subtleties don’t matter.
But look at some of the comments above. Many sceptics including myself are saying they don’t understand the logic used to reach the conclusions in this article.
I do think this is a strange and unexplained analysis but it isn’t representative of the quality of most of the original articles here (as opposed to those that lazily link to mainstream media reports which regularly get hammered below the line).
Look at the figures from Israel. That’s why they’re backtracking on the use of vaccine passports. The vaccines are next to useless:
Latest data from Israel exposes Pfizer farce
NEW CASES 11 – 17 July
Total new cases* for ages 20+ : 2,996
Fully SyringeSyringe : 2,523 (84.2%)
Un-injected : 473 (15.8)
Microbe DEATHS : 10
Fully SyringeSyringe 8 (80%
Un-injected : 2 (20%)
*Additional small number of cases in those Syringex 1
Check the lates data from Israel w.r.t. covid infections in those vaccinated and un-vaccinated:
https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-4d0c-9f57-09bd99a88880
https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
It’s not about the vaccine and never was.
It really doesn’t help your case to draw erroneous conclusions from the data. From the graph, hospitalisations are clearly lower now. The positive test rate is a function of the number of tests conducted, the prevalence of the virus and the accuracy of the test. If there are far greater numbers of tests being conducted now, then the positive test rate may well be far lower now. What really matters is the actual prevalence of the virus among the over 60s.
I found this article confusing and not very convincing. Suggest the editors either just pull it or unleash Will’s analytical brain on it before republishing (if then warranted).
Is it possible that the vaccinated who are getting infected and then ending up in hospital are actually suffering from ADE. If this is the case then the mass vaccination of the population could end up being the biggest medical disaster since thalidomide. This evidence from Scotland as well as from Israel and other places is just a warning for the future. But your government wants to make vaccination compulsory, so what are their thinking of ? We’ve been warned !!
Unfortunately, this is incomplete data. What needs to be known is: when did they have the last vaccine, do they have comorbidities and how many recovered and were discharged from hospital.
My vets wife is a friend. She pmd me that the surgery was closed for deep cleaning as 6 members of staff had positive tests and Covid symptoms, one really ill. All 6 were vaccinated, 2 double jabbed. Thr sickest was one of the latter 2. My friend’s husband is 62 and unvaccinated – and wont be – and despite working with the 6, has tested negative all through and is perfectly healthy.
I cannot make sense of this.
“But as you can see from the table above, there is no evidence that hospitalisations are lower for the over-60s that are testing positive”
What “table above”? I can see only a graph.
The units of the left vertical axis of the graph is not stated. I surmise that it is for the blue curve but this is not stated.
“…no evidence that hospitalisations are lower for the over-60s that are testing positive…” Lower than what?
This just does not make any sense that I can discover.
Exactly what I thought – that chart alone makes zero sense and proves nothing. It needs the data of other age groups to have any meaning.
Sceptics are not good company. I am wondering whether it is healthy to follow this blog, any more than the news. People quoted in “State of Fear” found they were in a better place if they turned off the news. It would be good to have an honest overall appraisal of the effectiveness or non-effectiveness of the vaccines. I don’t think this is possible above the deafening screech of axes being ground. Why compete with the government and MSM in spreading FUD?
The conclusion is a non-sequitur. The severity of the disease in those vaccinated has to be factored in. Not just hospitalizations( equated to severity). And let’s look at the survival rate too. Fallacy of Causal Reductionism.As well as Missing Data.