Chief Executive of NHS Providers Criticises Unreliable Covid Modelling
An NHS leader says that the scientific modelling provided to the Government has been “crude” and unreliable through much of the pandemic, warning Boris against relying on it too heavily when he decides whether to extend lockdown past June 21st. The Telegraph has the story.
Chris Hopson, the Chief Executive of NHS Providers, said trusts were “sceptical” about the fitness of models to provide useful forecasts.
It follows heavy criticism of Government modellers, who in February predicted spikes after schools and shops reopened which failed to materialise.
Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, warned on Sunday that the Indian variant appeared to be 40% more transmissible, a figure which Warwick University modelling has previously suggested could overwhelm the NHS.
The Warwick data suggested that if the variant was found to be 30% more transmissible or higher, then hospital admissions would “exceed that observed in the first wave”.
But Mr Hopson said trusts in Indian variant hotspot areas had not seen huge spikes in admissions and deaths, and had coped well, with many now seeing a decline.
“For the record, trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here, given their performance of the last 15 months,” he said.
“Leaders point to the crude assumptions that have to be made and the huge shifts in outcome if small changes are made to those assumptions.”
Warwick University is expected to present new modelling data on the Indian variant ahead of the Government announcing whether restrictions will be lifted on June 21st.
Mr Hopson said that it was clear that even areas with the variant had been in no danger of being overwhelmed, as predicted in the earlier models, with admissions and deaths never approaching the levels seen in earlier waves.
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“For the record, trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here, given their performance of the last 15 months,” he said.
Welcome to reality, Hopson.
Shame you and your ilk weren’t pointing out the (inherent) unsuitability of basing panic policy changes on predictive statistical models back in March last year. Could have saved us the worst, most costly peacetime policy choice in history.
Absolutely this! Hopson has been a howling Jeremaiad and lockdown zealot almost from the get-go. His whole ‘raison d’etre has been to stop any blame attaching to the NHS for anyone that died ‘of Covid’, Constantly making dire predictions of overwhelmed hospitals.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Hospitals are being overwhelmed by the sick that were ignored by the National Covid Service and those that can’t get to see their GP. It’s now time to make sure everyone knows the fault for all the missed Cancer and Heart appointments lies with those pesky incompetent modellers.
I mean who could possibly trust them? And God knows it’s not the fault of the sainted NHS.
Nothing but contempt.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11786878/
N M Ferguson
Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flockWell grounded mathematical and statistical models are therefore essential to integrate the limited and disparate data, to explore uncertainty, and to define data-collection priorities. We analysed the implications of different scenarios of BSE spread in sheep for relative human exposure levels and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) incidence. Here we show that, if BSE entered the sheep population and a degree of transmission occurred, then ongoing public health risks from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than those from cattle, but that any such risk could be reduced by up to 90% through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food supply. Extending the analysis to consider absolute risk, we estimate the 95% confidence interval for future vCJD mortality to be 50 to 50,000 human deaths considering exposure to bovine BSE alone, with the upper bound increasing to 150,000 once we include exposure from the worst-case ovine BSE scenario examined.
Real vCJD figures from increased looking 122 IIRR so 410 times out of worst case (which seems to be Boris’ goto number).
Crude assumptions.
The whole bloody shitshow has been based on crude assumptions. (And none cruder than those of Ferguson the Bogeyman.)
Hasn’t taken the NHS long to notice the fact, has it?
The NHS has been fully complicit from the start. Shame on the NHS and those working within it who have supported and promoted the diabolical farce.
“The whole bloody shitshow has been based on crude assumptions.”
I‘m afraid you’ve got that wrong.
It’s been based on clear lies and distortions.
Yes, that’s right.
Deliberate, repeated lying.
Better late than never I suppose but really our ‘leaders’ need to grow some to put the modellers in their place. Jail I hope.
We’ve known this all along. Why has it taken these twerps over a year to notice? More to the point, what has happened to trigger this statement of the bleedin’ obvious now?
Good point. Perhaps he has had a look at the stats for “vaccine” reactions and avoidable illness such as cancer that are filling up the hospitals. Hopefully the first of the rats abandoning ship.
Yes, isn’t it?
Another one seeking to create some distance between himself and fallout from this nightmarish pantomime, like Farrar has been doing?
What do they know?
‘“For the record, trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here, given their performance of the last 15 months,” he said.’
Even a vaguely independent assessment of them after three months should have revealed how shockingly inaccurate they were.
Only thing more woeful is our Parliamentary elite.
Parliamentary elite is the ultimate oxymoron. Those fuckwits chose to listen to Ferguson’s team, who had a well known record of shockingly inaccurate forecasting. Mathematical modelling was the root cause of the financial crash of 2008, is still being used to push the climate change panic and now the lockdown agenda. The stupidity of politicians has never been so obvious.
Somebody tear this Hopson a new one please. Too late.
The rats are starting to desert the ship. Lacking the immunity provided by Parliament these erstwhile sycophants are desperately trying to distance themselves from the whole psychopathic construct. I think we’ll see more of them trying to throw themselves on the mercy of the people’s court.
Exactly.
“For the record, trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here, given their performance of the last 15 months,”
Aaaaaaannnnd the award for Greatest Understatement of the Coronafraud goes to…
CHRIS “SMUG FACE” HOPSON
Now, what other areas of our lives have been taken over by dodgy modelling…?
Man Made Climate Change
Hole in the Ozone Layer
AIDS/HIV
BSE/CJD
The list goes on and on and on and…
“trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here”
Warwick University may not be so sceptical. They received $2.3m in grants from the Billy Goats Foundation in 2020 after two ‘dry’ years in 2019 and 2019.
Never mind Warwick – what about the “university” where all this sh*t started – IMPERIAL COLLEGE, and the Master of Disaster Himself, “Professor” Neil Ferguson?!
Yes. Billy Goats Foundation funded Imperial College London a colossal $91.5m in 2020, averaging a mere $3m on each of the previous three years. That makes Warwick look like a pauper, or a poor performer!
For all those saying, ‘better late than never…’, no way! It’s simply not going to wash away the problem. This senior NHS leader could and should have come out with this criticism 14 months ago when it it became apparent that ‘3 weeks to flatten the curve’ was a lie. Hopson is either a coward with regret or stupidly slow at thinking critically or is now being given an alternative narrative to juxtapose at us from on high. Seeing that even CNN is beginning to shove Fauci into the daylight for scrutiny, one has to wonder if Hopson remains an obedient brother and is simply an early tease to a forthcoming Ferguson scapegoating farce. All of these people are responsible and all will not be able to wriggle and worm their way out of their complacency, corruption and crimes against humanity.
I’m all for scapegoating Pantsdown.
Yes, let’s do that but not at the expense of routing out his masters and bringing them all to justice. Hopefully Pantsdown will sing like a bird when he is investigated.
I suppose it’s good that someone at the heart of the NHS is saying this, but it won’t make any difference. He’ll either be ignored or wheeled out in a couple of days to claim his remarks have been taken out of context.
‘“For the record, trust leaders are sceptical of the value of predictive statistical models here, given their performance of the last 15 months,” he said.’
A bit slow then, aren’t they? Should they be in such highly paid positions?
I wonder how many may have received Notices of Liability regarding their actions – or non actions – and are now back pedalling to distance themselves?
Too late, mates, too late…
I’m amazed. I didn’t think this lockdown.zealot had any sense.
Just preparing his alibi for Nuremburg 2.
Non story, already established way back in this scamdemic.
Hoppitt Hopson. What a tool literally!😬. He has been happy to sound the plague bell to cover up NHs mismanagement. Now they have to do their basic job rather than hiding behind the Covid shroud, they suddenly find that extrapolation echo chambers are no longer useful.