Letter in the Telegraph Says Modellers Are Partly to Blame for Care Home Fiasco
There was a good letter in the Telegraph yesterday, pointing out that SAGE and its modellers need to accept some of the blame for the care home fiasco. After all, if the Government and the NHS hadn’t been persuaded by their apocalyptic models that hospitals would be overwhelmed if they didn’t clear out elderly, care home residents, they wouldn’t have been in such a hurry to get rid of them.
SIR – Matt Hancock, the NHS and the Prime Minister have all been blamed by Dominic Cummings for the appalling care-home Covid deaths at the start of the pandemic, but I feel none of these are the real culprits.
At the time, pandemic data modellers were forecasting huge numbers likely to need hospitalisation. So the Government, using the Armed Services, built Nightingale emergency hospitals in double-quick time.
The NHS, spooked by alarmist modellers, cleared the hospitals of all the non-Covid patients they clinically could, anticipating a deluge of Covid patients. Unfortunately, no one knew of non-symptomatic carriers, and the care homes were infected, with devastating results.
The hospital deluge predicted by modellers didn’t materialise, nor anywhere near it. The Nightingale hospitals were hardly used.
So, in apportioning blame for the horrendous care-home deaths, excitable modellers and their statistics, based on unrealistic assumptions, must be the primary culprits. It was a case of “following the science” that led policy-makers astray.
Steve Male
Highampton, Devon
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Only “Partly”???
Well, yes! It took our politicians led by Bozo to follow the insane recommendations without the slightest attempt at due diligence. Ferguson is of course a star-class prat with less forecasting ability than a tea-leaf, but that was obvious and well-known to anyone who cared to explore his record. Bozo et al either ignored or deliberately chose him because of that record.
From another perspective, perhaps the lockdowners in Cabinet pushed the Ferguson models precisely because they knew he would provide the apocalyptic headlines they craved?
Health Sec assured PM that care home residents returning from hosps had negative tests when in fact they had NO tests – full blame rests with him on that front irrespective of the model. However, the models will, I predict, continue to be trotted out at useful intervals when it is considered the public need to be “scared” into further submission.
Therefore it seems perfectly reasonable for the criminal proceedings to begin with these bar stewards.
Bring it on.
This has not been rejected yet so, as we speak here and now, no news is good news. Hopefully a progress update will come soon. Go to the “Critical Thinking” section for much more information
PCP Papers Laid Alleging Pandemic Fraud Against Hancock, Whitty, Vallance & Ferguson
https://www.thebernician.net/papers-laid-alleging-pandemic-fraud-against-hancock-whitty-vallance-ferguson/
R [PUB] v Hancock & Others [2021] | Public Notice of Intended Prosecution
https://www.thebernician.net/r-pub-v-hancock-others-2021-public-notice-of-intended-prosecution/
Failed Attempt To Sabotage PCP By Persons Unknown
https://www.thebernician.net/failed-attempt-to-sabotage-pcp-by-persons-unknown/
Yes
Article in the spectator by Fraser Nelson which speculated that the care homes may have been infected by agency staff who work in several homes thus the transmission may have arrived via that route. I don’t know if there’s any evidence for that, but moving people from hospital without testing them first seems a likely recipe for disaster.
BTL comments on that were sceptical of Fraser’s analysis
To possibly add credence to that – my friend’s wife recruits for the health sector and has had an absolute bugger of a year trying to find anyone willing to take on care-home jobs in all areas across Scotland. Admittedly the few agency staff available were working across multiple locations. (On a different note while I remember – also see Northern Ireland’s change in PCR-test guidance from around November 11th if I recall – they stated that tests should not be cycled above a certain level as NHS and care home staff were testing positive and being required to isolate on multiple subsequent occasions putting huge pressure on the system. This guidance coincided, funnily enough, with a large drop in positive cases and recorded deaths.)
Testing how?
I have a feeling that Ferguson has never accepted responsibility for anything he has emitted.
Of course not. If he ever had a glimmering of what an utter s..t he is, he’d have to top himself.
Dr Kelly…
If you mean David Kelly I agree; Blair & Co ( A.Campbell + BBC especially ) have a great deal to answer for regarding this gentleman’s demise and subsequent cover up – no inquest and 100 year embargo on access to the files….
In his home town there used to be a special punishment for “utter s..t”, they were waterboarded in the Severn over one of the bridges. I’ve only memory of one occasion in my life time so one more would be good.
The letter refers to asymptomatic spread, which is unlikely. However, at that time the symptoms were not very specific for CoViD19, cough and temperature. Patients could have been discharged with these symptoms, as there was no confirmatory testing. Once home, after lockdown, single variants would dominate. Also note Sweden discharged patients back into care homes, which they’ve admitted was a mistake.
Testing? With the PCR test that was NOT designed or intended to be used for diagnostic purposes and is therefore a complete waste of time.
why the hostility? I am fully aware of the shortcomings of the RT-PCR and lateral flow tests. Originally, the RT-PCR was used as a test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in patients with symptoms, which formed part of the diagnostic process, a means to an end rather than the end itself. At that time there was little to uniquely identify the infective pathogen, the presence of RNA from the allegedly isolated SARS-CoV-2 virus could indicate the pathogen involved.
“RT-PCR was used as a test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in patients”
I think you need to educate yourself in the actual history of testing, which was never based on identified RNA related to an isolated virus.
You are obviously not aware of the shortcomings.
If a female presents with increased need to pass urine, burning and lower abdominal pain then, after a negative pregnancy test antibiotics are prescribed based on symptoms. If a male presents with the same symptoms again antibiotics are prescribed for longer, however a sample is sent for culture and sensitivity. The test doesn’t alter the diagnosis but may alter the treatment.
The RT-PCR is a qualitative test if used with sensible cycle times shows the presence of viral RNA. It doesn’t provide prima facie evidence that the detected virus is the causative pathogen, it, alongside CT, X-Ray, signs and symptoms, could be sufficient to identify the illness as CoViD19.
I may be out of date here but is it not still the case that the ‘virus’ has not been full isolated in it’s pure form? If that is the case then how can you test for it’s presence?
You’re correct The virus has not been fully isolated in the strict sense of the word. (Dr Sam Bailey on YouTube covers this). The assumption behind the PCR test is that RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus were identified by those claiming to have in their words isolated the virus. The decision was made to look for three specific genes in the PCR test, however the number of amplification steps was set ridiculously high. More recently the number of genes was reduced to one and the high number of steps. The number of genes has been put back to three but there’s still confusion over the number of steps. (Again I would direct you to Sam Bailey on YouTube).
The final thing to remember is that the people claiming to have isolated the virus are Chinese. You, therefore, have to question whether the RNA is what they say it is, from SARS-CoV-2 or is it the RNA from a virus that most people have present anyway?? If the latter then there is no way out.
Ferguson has been a massive failure from day one. Mad cow disease, Swine Flu and Covid in particular. The guy is a complete nob. I hope he is strung up at the same time as Handoncock, Johnson, Witty, Valance, Van Tam and all the others responsible – essentially every MP and their advisors. Time for a clear out.
Sadly I think this is true — We appear to have people only interested in their own careers – otherwise they would have ordered at some point in the past 18months an urgent cost benefit analysis into what they were doing — They would have been horrified at the collateral damage of what they were doing —- instead they have continued to Lie and turn a blind eye …….
He’s been a very useful tool for a number of people to reach their objectives, as are those others now.
Ferguson was and likely still is the go to “nob” when you really want a doomsday scenario. I’m sure he’ll be used again by the nobs in Whitehall in the not too distant future.
A good insight of the consequence of letting self-seeking egotists gain credibility on the back of an amazingly incompetent record of prediction.
But someone let them have that misleading credibility. Ferguson & Co. would not be a problem without encouragement – they would just be crap computer gamers.
They’re all guilty. They are all killers.
Modellers provide information, the politicians are meant to interpret it, not go into a blind panic. But now the coercion continues with NHS workers, and they’ve had plenty of time to assess the situation
Moving the elderly out of hospital, away from critical care, into care homes with basic care and remote GP care was going to be a recipe for disaster, virus or no virus
At least the UK wasn’t the only place to kill off so many of its care home residents:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal
Cuomo issued an order on March 25, 2020 that all New York State nursing homes must accept residents that are medically stable. The order further stated that “[n]o resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH [nursing home] solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19”.[7]
I guess that’s why Florida’s Governor DeSantis has gained so much respect, because he held his nerve and didn’t clear the care home residents out of Florida’s hospitals?
Do we even know what role “covid infections” played in care phone deaths? What we do know is that unwell, very frail people were discharged from hospital too soon with no medical follow-up; all care home residents were suddenly (and for many, permanently) deprived of any meaningful contact with their loved ones; they were all treated as disease vectors by care home staff, who had to be ppe’d to the max (which I’m guessing was pretty scary for the residents, especially those with dementia, not to mention those with hearing and communication difficulties); care homes being understaffed due to absences caused by rules around testing and self-isolating regardless of symptoms or lack thereof; lack of access to medical care in care homes; imposed DNRs etc etc etc. No post mortems so no real evidence of cause of death, deaths just put down to covid (eg if another resident had previously tested positive in the care home). THIS is the real scandal, and it is continuing to a very large extent, but is seen now as normal, as essential, TO PROTECT THE VULNERABLE. You couldn’t make it up!
Home not phone obs
I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis. It’s far too simplistic for anyone to claim that sending ‘infected’ people back into care homes was the cause of the cascade of what we are supposed to perceive as ‘inevitable’ deaths once that policy was instituted.
In truth it is quite likely that in normal times the elderly patients would have been in safer hands in the care home system rather than in hospital. The point being overlooked by many is that, had the patients been treated as they would have been ‘pre-pandemic’, there would not have been anywhere near as many deaths; those that would have occurred would probably have occurred anyway.
As you say, the real cause of the death toll was the negligent management of those patients and their fellow care home residents as a result of the disproportionate ‘fear’ engendered by the ‘pandemic’ propaganda. Any care home resident showing any sign of even mild illness or change in demeanour for any reason was to be treated by default as a covid19 patient and, under the covid19 rules, placed under the euphemistically named “end of life care”, completely abandoned by the professional medical fraternity. Absolutely scandalous.
Steve Male’s analysis is accurate and lucid. He would never get a job in government.
Since it takes the claim of asymptomatic transmission for which there is little/no evidence it seems misconceived. I wonder if anything has been more deadly than the climate of fear. If you pay any attention to mainstream media you immediately feel fear in the pit of your stomach.
Cannot disagree with the logic, Neil Ferguson is to Covid what Ian Patterson was to breast cancer, the latter is now jailed and can cause no more harm, However; Ferguson, along with the SAGE members, are complicit and accessories to frankly mass murder, but the people at the top of the tree who sought only these people’s advice, and who did not look to a broader range of advisors because the game was being seen to do something, but to do all to keep a positive profile such that they can be re elected but not blamed. Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Grant schapps, Michael Gove, Pritti Patel, and Gavin Williamson. Have all been in charge of overseeing the ruination of lives either through the overblowing of the threat from Covid, the persecution of children as young as 4 at school, the cancelling of people who protested and the violation of basic privacies, the locking up of people in the country. These Men and this Woman are responsible and should be made to be accountable. Nothing short of a Nurmeberg style trial will be acceptable, they should just be thankful that hanging is no longer a Punishment for such crimes
It is a poor letter. The key point is that Ferguson’s outfit, Imperial College’s Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium is paid huge sums of money by Bill & Melinda Gates and the vaccine cartel GAVI organisation to drum up business for the industry. It really is high time Lockdown Sceptics grasped this very simple fact:
https://www.vaccineimpact.org/secretariat/
https://www.vaccineimpact.org/partners/
the matter is completely in the public domain so why does no one report?
So absolutely true. Start with Prof Lockdown I say.
I think about 7 million cattle would like a word with him, if he hadn’t persuaded the then Gov to kill them all. Mad cow disease massacre was his idea instead of cheap vaccination.
First class a/hole.
UK Column did a film on the swine ‘flu massacre and it is a brilliant if disturbing piece of work.
Bliar is as one would expect revealed to be a massive supporter of the cattle slaughter. In darker moments I fear that he was organising a rehearsal for the planned oncoming genocide.