Not So SAGE After All: A Review of the Latest Models
Glen Bishop, the second year maths student at Nottingham who was the first to spot that none of the modelling teams feeding into SAGE had taken seasonality into account last February, has taken a look at the new, improved models from Imperial, Warwick and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine that led to headlines earlier this week saying SAGE was no longer predicting an apocalyptic ‘third wave’. (Yipee!) The good news is, the teams have corrected their seasonality mistake when modelling the likely impact of the lifting of restrictions and now graciously allow that summer sunshine will ameliorate the spread of the virus – one of the reasons their latest projections are less gloomy. But there’s also plenty of bad news, as you’d expect.
Here is an extract:
A rational group of scientists would advise that risks are now within the normal accepted range and thus the end of restrictions is nigh and normal life will return. Unsurprisingly, that is not what these three modelling teams have done. Their models have failed to deliver the pessimism and danger craved by scientists clinging on to power, but a new obsession is taking over – the danger of variants. Imperial elaborates: “preventing the importation of variants of concerns (VOC) with moderate to high immune escape properties will be critical as these could lead to future waves orders of magnitude larger than the ones experienced so far.”
Previous Imperial models have made only passing reference to new variants and never tried to model them, yet Imperial’s latest paper, which shows (even with their modelling) the risk from covid to now be incredibly low, is half filled with predictions of theoretical super variants. The most pessimistic of the predictions entails an imaginary ‘high escape’ variant, which, if we stick to the current roadmap, would lead to a peak of over 4,500 deaths per day and a total of 225,000 deaths this summer. To put this into perspective, it would mean a death rate this summer of 3,300 per million, that is double the death rate in Florida since the pandemic began of 1,669 per million despite Florida being near fully open for the last eight months. It’s a higher total than anywhere in the world since the pandemic began. This is void of reality, but even if it weren’t, what is the proposal? Lockdown for another year until a vaccine for this new variant can be distributed, by which time even more variants will have appeared? One might as well include in the modelling a super infectious variant of Ebola or a new improved laboratory leak from our friends in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Worth reading in full.
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SAGE is all about enabling pork.
Porky pies?
‘Worth reading in full’ doesn’t work.
I’m reporting my post in the hope it draws the attention of an admin 🙂
I’m surprised they haven’t included an earth impact event, or a mega tsunami in their calculations of doom. They’re writing science fiction scenarios, while a Maths student ( well done Glen Bishop ), shows them what being the grown up in the room is.
Where’s the bloody alien invasion? That’s what I want to know! I’ve got popcorn and everything.
Don’t forget pirañas, sharks, Alien, Predator, Mega Shark, Giant Octopus, Crocosaurus, and of course BBC sitcoms from the 70s and 80s
Also fucking Jessica Fletcher!
Big admiration to the fabulous and dauntless Glen Bishop! Giving Mathematical literacy a good name.
I watched “Survivors” in the 70s. It was like a training video. I’m all good!
‘Jessica Fletcher’ Hahahahahaha!
Sod SAGE.
Sod lockdowns
Sod face knickers.
Get out there and live.
Once it stops raining, anyway.
Or, they could approve ivermectin. :/
Come on now, that will never do. Ivermectin isn’t designed to kill its recipients and of course it’s out of patent anyway.
Yes they’re not going to all this trouble to give you an Aspirin pill
These guys have totally jumped the shark.
The longer it takes before the GBP sees through their idiotic panic mongering the worse the blowback will be.
I predict an increasingly populous and potentially violent series of marches in towns all over the country until Johnson and his foolish cabal of mentally diseased advisers fold, or get strung up from lampposts.
Variants; what obvious tosh.
Let’s not forget that all the great and in retrospect historic political advances occurred when the ruling “elite” (a word hardly appropriate for Johnson and his seven political moral and intellectual dwarfs) has felt in severe risk of having their heads cut off or else long white hot iron rods inserted where the sun don’t shine.
Not threatening, just sayin’
Sadly not going to happen. The morons just voted for more of the same
Please read my post below about ADE and spread the word
Mr Johnson is being coerced into a panic again
Or is SAGE simply providing the necessary excuse for the eugenicist pig dictator to turn the screws once more in the early autumn.
Judging by his past record on hitting the panic button I would say that shouldn’t be too difficult to do.
The term ‘variants of concern’ had not been heard of until about ten days ago
‘High escape’ variant. Escaping from what exactly?
This is just made up bullshit now
Toby, still don’t believe James?
Actually, UK Column picked up on it a few weeks ago. They called it “Variants of Concern™”. They were certainly right about that.
It’s been around since at least last September I believe, the govt have published regular updates using this terminology since then.
We need to know who is in danger of these new variants. I’ve already had the illness so I expect my entire immune system, including my innate immune system and long term T Cells to be protected against the whole virus.
Recipients of gene based vaccines that are designed to evade the innate immune system to induce cells to express only the spike protein, which is the part of the virus that undergoes the most mutation, may well find that the genetic definition provided to the vaccine manufacturers by the Chinese Communist Party is way out of date or incomplete in a very short time.
Why should we who have trusted our natural God given immune systems be put under the same protective restrictions as those who now have a surrogate immune system provided to them by big-pharma?
“We need to know who is in danger of these new variants. “
Doubt SAGE & govt care who is or is not. They serve a purpose.
The vaccines are making matters worse. Recipients have been subject to all manner of problems, including death and the longer term effects as yet to come. None of this carnage should come as a surprise to anyone, when the person behind all of the lead vaccines, is the same person that has been advocating massive global depopulation for decades. Yet still the zombies eagerly role up their sleeves for his magic potion, you could hardly make this stuff up.
The next wave of illness will not be natural, but the effects of the gene therapy attacking the body rather than viruses. I fear the worst is yet to come folks.
Silly. Because natural immunity gives no profit to pharma, and no power to those who want to control us.
It’s very clear.
They are being totally rational. For their aims.
the second year maths student at Nottingham who was the first to spot that none of the modelling teams feeding into SAGE had taken seasonality into account last February, SAGE well knew the impact of seasonality – in fact it relied on it! Several commenters across the sceptic blogs and open media, myself included, spotted and predicted this scam back in July 2020, and predicted every fake superimposition of so called spikes onto existing annual ONS respiratory ailment figures including: The usual back to school September sniffles were dressed up as a dreaded second wave, as many predicted it would be. The usual autumnal and winter gentle rise in respiratory ailments and associated were again disingenuously given by the government to justify lockdown. The December steep rise, January peak and subsequent decline (simultaneously across ALL age groups btw, even those not vaccinated, see ONS graph below) was again entirely forseeable and warned against. The only major difference this year was the dramatic increase in reported post-vaxx C19 deaths in the over 70s following the roll out of the vaxx in early December and its disastrous impact on natural immunity in the first week or so (as has been later admitted)… Read more »
And they’ll sweep that under the carpet. The other factor that they will keep quiet about is the fact that, for many weeks, the overall death rates have been well under the 5 year average 2015 – 2019. Looks like a bit of an ‘on paper’ transition from other causes of death to Covid-19 (which is almost unique compared with anything else).
Sage? More like unravelling onions.
We all know what to do with sage and onions.
I used to grow that; a useful herb if you eat it in moderation, but it’s a bit over-powering sometimes.
I’d rather believe oregano
This is absolute gold
Tucker Carlson again. Interviewing Dr McCulloch about why no one ever discusses treatment using HCL etc in amaerica.
Carlson
“why would they suppress information relating to treatment…..”
McCulloch
“Lancet published a fake paper…..”
McCulloch: they surprising any treatment to keep fear going to encourage uptake of the vaxx
Treatment with HCL refusing hospitalisation by 85%
Carson: suppressing treatment causes deaths…… evil
Tucker Carlson is one of the, if not THE BIGGEST cable media talk show host in the USA
TV gold. If he keeps this up he is either going to find himself in concrete wellies or even more famous
I so hope for his sake and ours he becomes more famous and not in the concrete wellies. As he’s speaking out with some confidence perhaps he has powerful friends on his side. We can hope.
The Lancet Retracts Hydroxychloroquine Study
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200605/lancet-retracts-hydroxychloroquine-study
The most pessimistic of the predictions entails an imaginary ‘high escape’ variant, which, if we stick to the current roadmap, would lead to a peak of over 4,500 deaths per day and a total of 225,000 deaths this summer. This is an exercise in predictive programming, ass-covering for the potentially devastating, incoming tsunami of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement that honest, clued-up professionals have been warning us about for months now. All previous attempts over a period of decades at creating a Coronavirus vaccine resulted in pathogenic priming and enhancement of disease in the animal subjects. There is an inherent problem with Coronavirus vaccines causing this. This is the reason no Coronavirus vaccine ever got past animal testing phases in the past. With Covid, they skipped animal trials and went straight to “getting jabs into arms”, knowing full well that there is this glaring issue of enhancement. They did this while simultaneously going out of their way to rubbish and smear safe and effective drug treatments like HCQ and Ivermectin, to make way for their criminal, genocidal vaccine rollout based on Emergency Use Authorisation. The MHRA is headed up by some Commie fanatic, they had their people in place, ready for when this… Read more »
The reason we need to be very very vocal about this is because if and when ADE does occur on a large scale, which it defintely could in the UK with so many vaccinated, they will not only blame it on variants, they will use it as an excuse to impose full scale Martial Law, an excuse to impose even more draconian measures, maybe as an excuse for madatory vaccination. The Final Solution. It is imperative we get word of this out, so people can call the bluff in an effort to negate their fascist, evil agenda
Are our politicians really going to allow this to happen??
They already have. We’re on the home straight now, the hard work is done. If the ADE materialises, they just have to trick everyone into believing the deaths caused by ADE are down to variants, which judging by the success of what they have done so far, should be easy. Our politicans have already enabled things worse than this, like the vaccine rollout itself which causes the ADE, so why not?
If ADE was going to be a significant problem it would have become evident by now.
Thousands received the vaccines(s) last summer when they started the Phase III Trials. Millions received the vaccines more than 3 months ago.
I’m not saying there haven’t been problems or that there won’t be more but it looks very much as though they’ll be rare enough that they can be glossed over.
Bill Gates and Melinda seem to know something. This is speculative but you have to wonder what they were referring to here?
Bill & Melinda Gates… foreknowledge ? Smirking & laughing as they talk of a Second wave
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ps5hgSbMiNHJ/
Our politicians are complicit in the plan, that is the point; they aren’t stupid misguided fools, they’re acting to the script.
Absolutely correct. I believe this is the reason why they are trying to force absolutely everyone to be “vaccinated”. Otherwise it will be noticed that the “un-vaccinated” survive. I would imagine vaccination will soon become forced. It is genocide.
It is starting to look that way. Therefore, we have to go all out to educate people about this.
I hope you’re wrong but I suspect you are right
Don’t forget when they ‘allow’ you out, to order your antibody cocktail, Johnson recommends it
I love how they crow about immune escape but neglect to mention that this can be a by product of trying to vaccinate people in the middle of a pandemic, ie the pressure being applied to the virus as a result is forcing it to try and mutate and regain advantage.
Quite right, the effects of evolutionary pressure put on the virus by the interventions hasn’t even been acknowledged, let alone taken into account.
Predicting the future has never been easier.
A short time after most restrictions have been lifted, say July, Prof Wormtongue will give the BBC another exclusive. A new variant has emerged which is much more deadly, escapes the vaccines and Crucially, kills children.
The nation must rush for brilliantly repurposed Pfizer September top ups, and bring all children over the age of 12 or risk death for them.
Those who refuse to be jabbed are selfish pariahs the nation must shun.
Any deaths of anyone close to this top up jab are down to the new mutant Covid.
I can see more, but the scenes is the crystal are too horrible to relate.
I think the…”What if…” modelling scenario is brilliant. It’s so adaptive don’t you know.
SAGE – was there ever a more inappropriate acronym ?
I suppose the opposite of Sage would be FOOLS, Fellowship of oversight for lax science? Mike Yeadon is right, in all seriousness these people are simply LIARS!
What happened to this piece “worth reading in full”. It isn’t there, just a page saying ” you are not allowed to edit this page..