Latest News
Tory Rebellion Grows
It still isn’t clear whether the Speaker of the House of Commons will select Sir Graham Brady’s amendment to the Coronavirus Act, which is due to be renewed on Wednesday. But if he does, and Boris refuses to back down, it looks like the Government is facing defeat. Not only has the number of Conservative MPs prepared to vote for it grown from the 43 who originally signed the amendment to 81, according to Katy Balls in the Spectator, but the BBC reports that Labour MPs may join forces with the rebels. If the amendment passes it will mean that no additional Covid restrictions can be imposed by the Government without being approved by Parliament.
The House of Commons debated the coronavirus crisis yesterday and Conservative MPs lined up to urge the Government to allow Parliament to scrutinise and debate any further measures, including ex-Chief Whip Mark Harper and former Cabinet Minister Chris Grayling. But the stand out contribution to the debate was from Sir Desmond Swayne, a long-standing lockdown sceptic. The Daily Record has the details:
Speaking in the Commons, Sir Desmond said: “The purpose of politicians is to impose a measure of proportion, a sense of proportion on science, and not to be enthralled to it.
“Now I will make myself very unpopular, but I believe that the appearance of the chiefs (Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance) last week should have been a sacking offence.”
“When they presented that graph, with the caveat that it wasn’t a prediction, but nevertheless it was clear that they presented it as a plausible scenario, with its 50,000 cases per day by mid-October based on the doubling of infections by the week.
“Not once, not on one day since March, have there been infections on that day that were double that of the day of the week proceeding.
“Not once. Where did this doubling come from? What was their purpose in presenting such a graph?”
And he added: “It was project fear, it was an attempt to terrify the British people, as if they haven’t been terrified enough.”
Sir Desmond said he believed the Government’s policy has been “disproportionate”, adding: “By decree, it has interfered in our private lives, and our family lives, telling us who we may meet, when we may meet them and what we must wear when we meet them.
“We have the cruelty, the cruelty, of elderly people in care homes, disorientated, being unable to see the faces of their loved ones and to receive a hug.”
Sir Desmond isn’t wrong about the shortcomings of Witless and Unbalanced’s graph. Here it is, but updated to include the latest case data. Projections in red; actuals in blue. Today’s new cases – 4044, down from 5,692 yesterday – amount to 36% of their predicted number of 7,205. We will return to this…
Another Conservative MP who had some forceful words for the Government was Pauline Latham (Mid Derbyshire): “There are many pensioners who wish to see their family rather than live a long life. They would like to be able to make that choice. This Government have a responsibility to listen to those people, some of whom feel passionate because they fought in the war, or their parents fought in the war, for the freedoms that we want.”
Meanwhile, the Government’s handling of the crisis faced equally trenchant criticism in the Lords, with former Chancellor Lord Lamont comparing Witless and Unbalanced’s graph to Tony Blair’s “dodgy dossier”. (Has he been reading Lockdown Sceptics?)
Last night, Matt Hancock, Chief Whip Mark Spencer and Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg were engaged in a frantic round of talks to try and head off the rebellion.
I’m often asked what the most effective way to get the Government to change course is. Getting the sceptical case before the public? Mass demonstrations? Civil disobedience? The answer, I think, is to get Parliament to start doing its job again. Thanks to Sir Graham Brady, that may be about to happen.
Stop Press: Labour MP Daniel Zeichner joked about the closure of 29 branches of Pizza Hut yesterday, putting 450 jobs at risk.
A reader has emailed to say Zeichner has to bear some of the blame for these job losses. “He is my MP, and he has been utterly unresponsive and useless for the entire lockdown when I’ve tried to reason with him,” he says. “His replies could have been written by Matt Hancock.”
More Pointless Restrictions Imposed on Pubs, Bars and Restaurants
Among the new rules that came into force yesterday were those restricting noise levels in pubs, restaurants, bars and cafes to 85 decibels. Managers must now take “all reasonable measures” to stop customers from dancing and groups of six or more from singing. This, in spite of the fact that new cases originating in hospitality venues make up a tiny fraction of the whole (see above). The Mail has more.
They came as Government statistics revealed a tiny proportion of COVID-19 outbreaks have been linked to pubs and restaurants. Just 17 of 532 (3.2%) of England’s reported coronavirus clusters occurred in the hospitality sector last week – down from around 5% the week before the draconian restriction was imposed.
Meanwhile, the proportion linked to schools has doubled to more than 40 per cent after thousands more students flocked back to classrooms and universities, which is likely to have had a massive knock-on effect on care homes where the rate fell from 44 to 25%.
The Government is facing mounting criticism of its decision to impose a 10pm curfew, given that it has resulted in crowds thronging the streets in city centres shortly after closing time.
Downing Street today dismissed a barrage of condemnation of the 10pm curfew, despite Tory MPs branding it a “sick experiment” and the mayor of one of the UK’s biggest cities warning it is doing “more harm than good”.
The PM is facing a rising tide of anger over his handling of the crisis after Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said the Government’s drinking deadline was merely shifting the partying into homes.
Scores of drinkers were spotted in trendy Moseley, Birmingham, on Saturday night twirling around to a brass bands, despite restrictions urging social distancing. Similar extraordinary scenes were witnessed in London and Manchester as the restrictions appeared to backfire spectacularly.
But the PM’s spokesman voiced defiance this afternoon, insisting there is no intention of changing the rules again – and even denying they had caused any serious problems.
What a shambles.
Police Warned Not to Download NHS COVID-19 App
Police officers have been advised not to download the NHS Test and Trace COVID-19 app on their smartphones, according to the BBC.
Some officers have also been told they may not need to obey self-isolate alerts generated by the app when downloaded to their personal phones.
Lancashire Constabulary has told staff to call the force’s own COVID-19 helpline instead.
The BBC contacted the North-West of England force after a source said the advice had been given because of “security reasons”.
The source also said officers had been told not to carry their personal phones while on duty if they had activated the app.
This applies to staff working in public-facing roles as well as those in back-office positions.
“The health and wellbeing of our officers, staff and the public remains our priority,” a Lancashire Constabulary spokeswoman subsequently told the BBC.
“Members of staff, like all members of the public, are personally able to download the Track and Trace application should they choose to do so. Guidance provided to staff within the workplace remains in line with the national NPCC position.”
The NPCC confirmed the work-phones policy was common to all forces, but said it was carrying out an urgent review of the matter.
“We have been taking time to review the specifications of the app to assess the implications for policing,” added a spokesman.
Presumably, the real reason Chief Constables have ordered their officers not to download the app is that they don’t want them being forced to self-isolate for 10 days after Matt Hancock’s random notice generator goes even more haywire.
Stop Press: The Government has been accused of a “massive state data grab” after millions of messages have started appearing on people’s phones urging them to download the NHS COVID-19 app. Has the Government harvested people’s mobile phone numbers from GPs in violation of GDPR? Christine Burns, a former NHS adviser who was awarded an MBE in 2005 for her work with transgender people, thinks so. She wrote on Twitter: “I read the privacy statement linked to by that message, which details a massive state data grab. I’m never trusting my GP with my data again.”
NHS Extra: A reader has submitted a complaint to the Information Commissioner’s Office about being spammed by his local GP. If any readers want to do likewise, the details of how to complain are here.
This is the wording of the text I received:
“This is a public health message from NHS Test & Trace. Please download the NHS Covid-19 app from the App Store/Google Play. More info at https://covid19.nhs.uk”
I don’t know if my complaint has any merit but I made four points to the ICO:
1) This is spam (although I am happy to receive information from my healthcare providers – e.g. GP etc; I wasn’t aware that I had agreed to receive this sort of promotional material).
2) It creates a significant opportunity for fraudsters to send out their own spam messages (pretending to be NHS modeled on this) tricking people into making an action that will lead to them being defrauded. (We already saw lots of this earlier in the ‘pandemic’).
3) (building on point 2) The text includes a link for people to click on (to: https://coivd19.nhs.uk) while this link is presumably trustworthy this is the classic modus operandi of fraudsters and they must be rubbing their hands with glee at the opportunity it creates for them to copy these tactics. Anti fraud professionals would usually put a stop to this sort of thing.
4) The text promotes two commercial websites – the App Store and Google Play. I wasn’t aware NHS did this sort of promotional activity?
Why Brendan O’Neill is Not A Conspiracy Theorist
Brendan O’Neill wrote an excellent editorial in Spiked yesterday, summing up everything that’s wrong with the Government’s – and the public’s – response to the crisis. He was particularly good on why he doesn’t have much time for conspiracy theories.
It is understandable that some people have weaved conspiracy theories to try to explain the current moment, insisting that dastardly figures like Bill Gates, Big Pharma and of course wicked governments are busily plotting the overthrow of human liberty on the back of a cooked-up virus crisis. After all, things are confusing. Extraordinary events have unfolded with very little clarity or explanation. In such circumstances people will create stories to try to make sense of the sudden diminution of their freedom and their lives. And yet, this conspiratorial bent among anti-lockdown protesters is a very serious problem. It ends up giving rise to a competition of narratives of powerlessness.
So on one side, we have officialdom’s lockdown myopia which disempowers communities by exaggerating the threat of COVID-19 and downplaying our capacity for dealing with risk and uncertainty. And on the other side we have a pushback against officialdom that says dark, evil forces beyond our control are puppeteering this crisis in order to achieve their malevolent ends. In both scenarios, the public is reduced to spectators. Spectators either to the fearful crisis-management of government officials and experts who insist we must follow the rules if we want to survive, or to an evil conspiracy of the usual suspects that we can hate and rage against but not really do much about. In both situations, the capacity of individuals and communities to understand this crisis and to start taking action to alleviate it, or live with it, are diminished. We need a better opposition.
Worth reading in full.
Postcard From University
A student has written to us, describing the horror of life on his university campus.
At my university, Estate Patrol are everywhere, ready to remorselessly disperse large groups, hand out hefty fines and other penalties in ways that make the Stasi look like friendly neighbourhood support officers. I have heard numerous horrific stories from my Russian family about life in the Soviet Union. How can we call ourselves an advanced free society when the same authoritarian measures are being forced upon us?
While our freedoms have been snatched away from us, we are still expected to pay full tuition and accommodation fees (by forcing us into one-sided accommodation contracts), compounding the disadvantages young people already face when it comes to debt and income. Now we face the possibility of being locked up in our halls of residence over Christmas.
We’ve published it in the “Postcard” section as a “Postcard From University”. Worth reading in full.
Dr John Lee: “Politicians Doing Amateur Science and Scientists Doing Amateur Politics – A Pretty Awful Brew”
Dr John Lee, one of the first senior doctors to raise the alarm about the lockdown, appeared on Julia Hartley-Brewer’s TalkRADIO show yesterday to warn of the dangers of a second lockdown. He told Julia the latest coronavirus measures are “completely disproportionate” because “we have politicians doing amateur science and scientists dong amateur politics. Mix the two together and it’s a pretty awful brew.”
New Poem From Bent Knee
Anti-Lockdown poet Bent Knee has sent us his latest.
Do not
Do not sing, do not dance
Forgo the joyful chanceDo not breathe, do not kiss
Intimacy is remissDo not embrace and kiss the bride
Love must never overrideDo not party, do not play
Limits are here to stayDo not mingle, do not mix
Follow the rule of sixDo not hug your grandparents
Love is literal violenceDo not believe that you can choose
You must obey the curfewsDo not plead for liberty
Forget your old humanity
Two-Thirds of Wales Locked Down
After a brief respite, lockdown has returned to Wales. The BBC has more.
Nearly two-thirds of Wales’ population will be under lockdown when new restrictions are imposed at 18:00 BST.
Neath Port Talbot (NPT), Torfaen and Vale of Glamorgan will join eight other areas in lockdown, affecting almost two million people in total.
The country’s two biggest cities – Cardiff and Swansea – had restrictions applied on Sunday evening.
The new rules mean no travel outside council boundaries other than for work, education or medical emergencies, with no indoor mixing allowed and no alcohol sales after 22:00.
Conwy, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Flintshire, Anglesey and Carmarthenshire are being “closely monitored” by Public Health Wales, meaning if cases continue to rise they could also face lockdowns.
Wedding planner Gail Windley says it’s an incredibly frustrating time for everyone.
“The rug is being pulled from under your feet constantly,” said Ms Windley, who lives in Neath Port Talbot.
She said one bride she was working with was “very stressed” and would be “glad to get it over with”.
“A wedding is a milestone in your life – that’s how your ancestors will trace you back – so it’s heart-breaking to be involved in that and see it.”
Preston’s Wild Boar Park Well Worth a Visit
We got an email from a reader who’s just spent a pleasant weekend at Bowland Wild Boar Park near Preston. Sounds great!
Myself and the family spent a lovely weekend at Bowland Wild Boar Park. It’s not our first visit, and having previously camped there in the pods before we were a little apprehensive as to the changes.
On arrival we were greeted by a staff member with the obligatory face mask, but no mention of me not wearing one. Once we’d checked in, we were able to enjoy what turned out to be a lovely weekend, with all the fellow pod campers and tenters turning out to be as sceptical as myself. Most had young kids and we all waxed lyrically on the damage done to kids, other health issue, etc.
The park had introduced some changes. No animal petting sessions for the kids, where normally they hand round various animals for the little ones to manhandle, and the barrel ride had set booking times and was disinfected between sessions. The cafe was take-out only, but it was refreshing that despite mask signs everywhere the visitors were mostly unmasked and the staff never challenged any non-maskers. The rest of the park was business as usual.
So if you find yourself near the Forest of Bowland, up t’ north, it is well worth a visit and giving them your support.
Round-Up
- “Covid, Vitamin D and what happens when statistics are revered, but not understood” – Excellent piece by Jon Moynihan in CapX on why it’s taken so long for the authorities to acknowledge the benefits of Vitamin D
- “Terrorist politicians at war with our way of life” – Strong piece in the Conservative Woman by Neil McCarthy
- “Neighbours urged to call police on Covid self-isolation cheats” – Government prepares the ground for The Lives of Others remake
- “Government warned football structure at risk of collapse” – Many EFL and National League clubs are on the verge of going into administration, according to a warning letter to the Government signed by former Football Association Chairmen Greg Dyke and Lord Triesman
- “Norwegian could be nationalised” – Will there be anything left of the airline industry when this is all over?
- “Crew on first post-lockdown Greek cruise contract coronavirus” – 12 crew members have tested positive on a cruise ship, all of them asymptomatic. But they’re retesting now and it looks as though they’re all false positives
- “Pastors demand liberty” – The letter from Christian ministers urging the Government not to close places of worship now has 700 signatures
- “A brief era of rationality is ending” – Good column from Dan Hannan in the Washington Examiner
- “Parliament bars exempt from 10pm curfew” – MPs caught taking the piss
- “I’M TOO SEXY FOR A MASK! Right Said Fred-om as PICS Emerge of 90s Pop Stars at Freedom Rally” – The 90s pop duo were at the Trafalgar Square anti-lockdown demo on Saturday
- “People are absolutely justified in mistrusting the elites” – Historian Thomas Frank talks to Brendan O’Neill in Spiked about his new book
- “The metrics of fear” – Laura Dodsworth’s latest in the Critic
- “Local lockdowns failing to slow the increase in coronavirus cases” – Sarah Knapton in the Telegraph explains why local lockdowns aren’t working. Meanwhile, Hancock has imposed further restrictions in the North-East
- “The Tories are fighting back in the culture war” – Tim Stanley sees a glimmer of light in the Telegraph
Theme Tunes Suggested by Readers
Just one today: “Dido’s Lament” by Anna Dennis and Voices of Music.
Love in the Time of Covid
We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.
Woke Gobbledegook
We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today, we thought we’d flag up a piece in Spiked by Carrie Clark, the journalist who’s written the briefing paper about unconscious bias training for the Free Speech Union.
How would you react if your employer introduced mandatory astrology training at your workplace? What would you make of an organisation that spent thousands of pounds teaching its employees that their character is predetermined by the alignment of the stars and that, despite what they might consciously think or how they choose to behave, their actions are ultimately dictated by invisible cosmic forces? Now imagine that your employer claims to be fighting the scourge of racism by introducing this training.
Bizarre as it may seem, employers across the UK are dangerously close to doing just that. Workers up and down the country are finding themselves forced to undergo mandatory unconscious-bias training – ostensibly to make them less racist. But unconscious-bias training has, at its heart, a psychological test with barely more scientific credibility than astrology. In effect, employers are throwing vast sums of money at a discredited pseudoscientific method which will do nothing to tackle racism and discrimination in the workplace. Meanwhile, practical changes that might truly benefit black and minority-ethnic employees are ignored.
Unconscious-bias training is an outgrowth of the Implicit Association Test (IAT). When it was first introduced in 1998, the results claimed to show that 90 to 95% of IAT participants were implicitly racially prejudiced. While the test-takers might not have thought of themselves as racist, their responses on the test suggested that they were unconsciously biased against black people. This proved a seductive narrative for committed anti-racists, particularly those whose careers depended on portraying Britain and America as systemically racist. The test seemed to show that vast swathes of people were still ‘unconsciously’ racist, in spite of the dramatic decline in racist attitudes over the past 25 years.
The diversity industry has grown to be hugely profitable. It is now worth a cool $8 billion a year in the United States. Assisted by the IAT’s veneer of scientific respectability, unconscious-bias training has been marketed as an essential tool for any business serious about addressing racial inequality.
But reams and reams of research have discredited the IAT, undermining the entire premise of unconscious-bias training in the process. Time and again, meta-analysis has failed to find a correlation between a person’s score on the IAT and how discriminatory their behaviour is. Psychologists and neuroscientists, still puzzling over the complicated distinction between conscious and unconscious thought, are sceptical of the claim that the IAT measures something that can be defined as ‘implicit’. For instance, the propensity of IAT participants accurately to predict their score in advance suggests conscious awareness of something that the IAT’s creators describe as ‘unconscious’.
This is a fantastic article that’s well worth reading in full.
You can read a summary of Carrie’s briefing paper here, the full version here, and the Frequently Asked Questions the Free Speech Union has pulled together for people that want to opt out of diversity training here.
“Mask Exempt” Lanyards
We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.49 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.
Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face nappies in shops here.
A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.
And here’s a round-up of the scientific evidence on the effectiveness of mask (threadbare at best).
Stop Press: Some shops are employing mask recognition technology, according to BBC News, whereby customers have to stand in front of a scanner and are barred from entering if they’re not wearing a face nappy. I wonder if the patent-holder for this marvellous invention is Jeff Bezos, the multi-billionaire owner of Amazon?
Samaritans
If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.
Shameless Begging Bit
Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here.
And Finally…
In this week’s episode of London Calling, mine and James Delingpole’s podcast, we talk about James’s adventures at Saturday’s anti-lockdown protest in Trafalgar Square, the appalling treatment of students and Laurence Fox’s new political party. At one point, we try to imagine what Boris could do now to redeem himself. Secure a brilliant trade deal with the EU? Hardly. Restore the Britain’s overseas territories, so we once again have an Empire on which the sun never sets? Wouldn’t be enough. Lead Earth to victory in an intergalactic war? Maybe…
You can listen to the podcast here and subscribe to it on iTunes here.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
First…wow
Well done dear boy!
NOW LISTEN to our excellent anti-lockdown, song ridden, up beat podcast:
https://therealnormalpodcast.buzzsprout.com/
I’m puttin’ it around, honest!
Good man! Recording our 1984 comparison episode tonight over a pint!
Good podcast ! I liked the young person song, super.
please write to your MP now to repeal the Coronavirus ACT
https://bigbrotherwatch.org.uk/CoronavirusAct/#email-your-mp
The Coronavirus Act is the biggest expansion of state power in a generation — and could stay in law for years. Emergency powers should carry emergency time limits. That’s why we campaigned for, and won, the right for MPs to vote on the Act every 6 months. The first vote is on Wednesday 30th September.
Who will win, Tobias Ellwood or Sir Graham Brady….
https://www.rt.com/uk/502054-coronavirus-vaccination-mandatory-travel/
Speaking in the House of Commons on Monday night, Tobias Ellwood argued that the mass vaccination scheme is a challenge of the scale and complexity of “the D-day landings and Dunkirk.”
The MP for Bournemouth East told the parliament that a vaccine could be six months away and urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to use the armed forces to oversee the process of delivering it to the UK population.
MP Tobias Ellwood proposing that military oversees mass-vaccination of Britain, and issuance of VACCINATION CERTIFICATES for international travel. Member of 77th Brigade, the psychological warfare unit which “assists” Cabinet (via Rapid Response Unit) in shaping public discourse. pic.twitter.com/gB3IyM6siG
Sir Desmond Dwayne was great…worth watching it all.
I would like to have seen that but it went straight to the next video (at least it was Dave Cullen, always worth watching).
I’ll have find it myself on YouTube.
Found it, watched in full.
100k views on one site alone.
I sent him a short thank you email. I suspect he’s had quite a few but I did receive a short acknowledgement which was nice!
His website (including contact details) is https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/sir-desmond-swayne-td-mp-3/ and contains some of his sceptical questions as posts.
Well done that man!
I did the same and received a reply. They all need our support.
I’ve just written as well. If only we had more like him here in Sturgeon land.
He’s just taken the trouble to send a personal brief acknowledgement.
My MP -an SNP stalwart-never answers my emails.
Yep – mine, once in a blue moon, “answers” but NEVER actually answers!
We must have the same MP!
I know the feeling.
unfortunately there are two types of MP .. Those that are good constituency MPs and those that dont give a toss about their constituents
unfortunately when it comes to elections most people will vote for plank of wood if it has the right rosette.
I always found a similar thing with local elections. The independents were usually the best for dealing with peoples problems
Mine is a Plank of wood. As a tax payer I resent paying her salary.
Mine replied to me once just quoting the government. Didn’t even reply to my other emails.
Nice one, I’ve also sent a message of support, thanks and gratitude!
I sent him an email as well. I’m definitely on the opposite end of the political spectrum from him but he encapsulated almost every thought I’ve had on the subject.
I’ve just done the same. People need to show support when necessary, and take action to get their voices heard. The more they are heard, the more powerful they are.
A clear demonstration showing how the lockdown saved no lives in Britain,
using Ferguson’s predictions for deaths in Britain and Sweden and what actually happened in both countries.
If you take Ferguson’s prediction for no lockdown Sweden with the official death rate it was 12 times lower.
SWEDEN Prediction 70,000 official deaths 5,880
Divide Neil Ferguson’s (Imperial College London) prediction for the UK with no lockdown,
UK 500,000 by 12 you reach a figure of 41,666.
Currently the official figure for the UK is 41,988
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bpu87AHIILA
Andrew Neil: “Boris Johnson panicked – hard to say Sweden was wrong” (and what it means for the UK)
Please share – send to your MP, whatever
Wow, that’s even worse than his X 10 wrong hocus pocus predictions for foot&mouth SARS Swine flu bird flu.
What a hanckock that man is.
Big pharma made bank after countries bought millions of vaccine doses that were never needed.
How does he have any credibility, must be the go to for the powerful people who want a con man
There’s no such thing. You may be referring to a Reasonable Worst Case estimate — such things are explicitly not predictions — for a “do nothing” scenario. Since something very different from “do nothing”, namely a lockdown (to which many people reading these comments are very much opposed) it can’t be described as a “prediction” in any sense of the word. Of course Sweden did not adopt a “do nothing” scenario either — they did quite a lot.
The prediction made by a different group of researchers, but using a similar model, about Sweden was indeed intended to be a prediction, and it was indeed wrong. I’m not disputing that.
But to compare the two in this way is “amateur science”, to quote the blog above.
A Reasonable Worst Case Scenario is explicitly a prediction. It is a prediction of what may happen in a worst case scenario- the clue is in the name.
You may be confusing “prediction” with “prophesy”. No one ever claims a prediction is a guarantee – however the issue is that this prediction (or non-prediction) was the one repeatedly used by pro-lockdown to justify the restrictions put on us.
From a report of the Common Science and Technology Committee Reasonable worst case scenario 75. The second stage of the [National Risk Assessment] process is assessing risks and their impacts. Risks are assessed using available historical, statistical and scientific data. Where possible, the assessment should take account of probable developments over the next five years.[75] Impacts are assessed against five main criteria: the numbers of fatalities that are likely to be directly attributable to the emergency; the extent of human illnesses or injury over a period following the onset of an emergency; social disruption; economic damage; and the potential for significant outrage and anxiety to be caused to communities.[76] 76. The assessment leads to the development of a “reasonable worst case scenario” for every risk. The reasonable worst case scenario is “designed to exclude theoretically possible scenarios which have so little probability of occurring that planning for them would be likely to lead to disproportionate use of resources.”[77] The Government stated that: They are not predictions of what will happen but of the worst that might realistically happen, and therefore we would expect most pandemics to be less severe and less widespread than the reasonable worst case. By planning for… Read more »
Modellers can indeed provide caveats to their outputs.
But when the worst case is explicitly used not just to lockdown an entire nation, but to then justify it with a pat on the back to government who saved 400,000 lives, what can be done? Because its bare faced manipulation of what was a recognition that black swan events do occur.
They should be pushed quite far down the pecking order of advisors in my book. Instead, we had Ferguson front and centre. Why?
Well, you can call it what you like, but we were absolutely told that half a million would die if we didn’t have a lockdown.
… which is the point I’m trying to make, and the thing that concerns me, and why I keep going on about it. Modelling is not the issue. The issue is how the results from models used for a specific purpose — and I hope people would agree, a reasonable one — are misrepresented.
A good rule of thumb is that whenever you read a news story that says “up to X”, that is an over-compressed version of “most likely Y, with a 95% confidence interval from Z to X”. The media go, of course, for the most exciting figure.
A good example of this is Ferguson’s estimate for deaths from vCJD as a result of the BSE epidemic. He said something like a central estimate between 100 and 1000, with a 95% confidence bound from 50 to 150,000. Which of those figures was reported? The largest and most exciting. It’s fair to say that a range of 50 to 150,000 is a numerical way of saying “I don’t know”, of course.
Sadly, I don’t expect the media to do any better, although one could hope.
“A good example of this is Ferguson’s estimate for deaths from vCJD as a result of the BSE epidemic. He said something like a central estimate between 100 and 1000, with a 95% confidence bound from 50 to 150,000.”
Well, he should have just said; ‘I haven’t the slightest idea’ then.
These Imperial modellers know that upper scare estimates are what will get reported. That is why they say them!
But he did have an idea: between 100 and 1000 over the next 80 years. The. number has been just under 200 in 20 years, which seems like quite a good fit to me.
I could have given the same 95% confidence interval, without doing any research at all.
It is meaningless, other than to have the highest possible figure reported.
Modelling is the issue because if incomplete or wrong data is entered then you will get a incorrect outcome modelled.
In this case a false IFR predicted on 6 planes from Wuhan and no allowance given for pre immunity.
True, of course. But a model allows you to vary the inputs and determine the sensitivity and decide whether you know the input with sufficient certainty to get an output with the desired accuracy (or not). In the famous 500,000 case, the precise numerical figure was less important than the fact that under most reasonable assumptions, the answer was too large for the NHS to cope.
No allowance for pre-existing immunity was the reasonably conservative assumption at the time for a novel virus. Can you point to anything known in February that would have made that obviously incorrect.
An assumption based on an entirely homogenous population with everybody equally susceptible was ridiculous, but served the purpose.
There has never been such a novel pathogen in history.
Population-level models have been used sufficiently often over the past hundred years or so to be sure that they are capable of giving qualitative answers which deliver useful policy insights and numerical answers which are good enough for some policy decisions.
“Population-level models have been used sufficiently often over the past hundred years or so to be sure that they are capable of giving qualitative answers which deliver useful policy insights and numerical answers which are good enough for some policy decisions.” Well, those models have proved woeful in this example. Unless the intent was to be woeful, in which case they were really rather good. It’s time they had one or two Bayesians on board. Which is beyond them. Or the Bayesians are operating in the background. Why is it that about a month ago ‘they’ forecast 120,000 deaths over the winter? Why did they subsequently predict 85,000? Why did all those signatories sign the 120k w.c.s.? Yes, these simplistic one-dimensional numerical extrapolations are good enough if you actually want particular policy decisions. And that’s why they always wildly over-estimate. The true figure (even including ‘death with’) up until the end of Feb will be between 5000 and 15,000. (Unless there is wholesale marking flu deaths down as Covid, or the flu vaccine causes viral interference.) Nearer 5000 with a Swedish light touch, nearer 15,000 with the extending of the madness. All cause mortality will be high this winter, due… Read more »
Yes, easily. His laughable “model” was examined both by statisticians on this site and elsewhere and the Disgusting Ferguson “model” gave wildly-differing results from the same inputs. In other words, his “model” was crap. He had no right whatsoever to demand or advise a government to carry out an economic wave of destruction on that basis.
Well, as I’ve consistently said, I haven’t examined his agent-based model in detail. What I have consistently confined myself to commenting on is the famous 510,000 prediction, as taken by SAGE 11 for their RWC. I agree with that, on the basis of simple SIR population level modelling, as the right answer at that time, given the data available at that time, and given the question under consideration, which was not “Exactly how many people will die” but “Can we cope with the consequences of a do-nothing policy”. So many of the reasonable assumptions for the parameters known at the time came back with the answer “No” that the RWC did what it was supposed to do in planning terms.
So Imperial didn’t really get anything wrong? It was all the media!
Right.
I didn’t say that. I said there’s a strong tendency in the media to report only the most dramatic figure they can find.
Yeah, right. Sure.
I may have imagined it but i’m sure the dramatic figures such as “50,000 cases a day”, “200 deaths a day”, “doubling every 7 days” were used exclusively to the media a few days ago….so why was that the case and what excuses are you going to make for Vallance and Whitty?
Why would you assume I want to “make excuses” for anyone? I’ve been explaining one particular figure which has been assiduously misquoted.
If your had asked me politely, in such neutral terms as “Do you think those figures were valid and explained accurately” I would have given you my views.
Why was a Reasonable Best Case Scenario never discussed? When we forecast, shouldn’t we “delineate possibilities that extend out from a particular moment or event”? Given the catastrophising mindset of the media, isn’t it inevitable that they would focus on 500,000 deaths – that was very easy to predict.
Unfortunately if you don’t let the media see the full range of figures, then you feed the conspiracy theories.
If the supposed experts make a royal hash of it, then someone’s going to notice.
Great idea! Unfortunately we tend to hear more about the Unreasonable Best Case Scenario …
Your logical argument struggles whenever you describe Ferguson’s effort as ‘reasonable’, Richard. Describing something as such does not make it so.
“Reasonable”, as in “Reasonable Worst Case” is a judgement. For what it’s worth, I would have given a similar answer based on the data available at that time, using a different and much simpler model.
However, if you think that was not a reasonable estimate for the do-nothing scenario, let me ask you. What “reasonable” estimate would you have given SAGE 11 on 27 February for the Reasonable Worst Case “do-nothing” scenario? More to the point, how would you have gone about determining it? What analytical processes would you have used to turn the data in front of you on that day into a number, or a numerical range, that would have enabled you to contribute to answering the question “What would we need to plan for if we do nothing?”
I would have used the data from the cruise ships which made it obvious that Ferguson was using the wrong assumptions from day one. Garbage in, garbage out.
Well, that’s rather the point isn’t it? You would have made a different choice from the conflicting data. Considering that data from Manaus and Guayaquil supports an IFR in the range 0.8-1%, it’s not at all clear that you would have been right.
Thanks for the reply, Richard. What “reasonable” estimate would you have given SAGE 11 on 27 February for the Reasonable Worst Case “do-nothing” scenario? I was quite convinced considerably earlier than 27th February that this whole shitshow was a planned coup. And I have more tools than just one hammer, so not everything looks like a nail. My reasonable estimate would have been a thousand or two, if that, and that Sage should go home and look after the garden. More to the point, how would you have gone about determining it? A lifetime of observing, studying, researching, and experiencing the abuse of power in high places. Aided by some specific areas of knowledge, following and interpreting the carefully crafted msm narrative, and a normal degree of common sense. Oh, and a knowledge of how damaging and harmful fear is in every situation. What analytical processes would you have used to turn the data in front of you on that day into a number, or a numerical range, that would have enabled you to contribute to answering the question “What would we need to plan for if we do nothing?” My analytical processes would have initially been turned towards answering… Read more »
“You may be referring to a Reasonable Worst Case estimate — such things are explicitly not predictions — for a “do nothing” scenario. Since something very different from “do nothing”, namely a lockdown (to which many people reading these comments are very much opposed) it can’t be described as a “prediction” in any sense of the word.” Neil Ferguson’s barmy figures were never described as a Reasonable Worst Case estimate. In fact, he clearly stated that it was indeed a prediction! “Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcaresystems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICUbeds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario forcritical care requirements that we examined.In addition, even if all patients were ableto be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.” https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/14/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf I don’t think you should be defending the… Read more »
That is incorrect, assuming we’re talking about the 500,000 “do-nothing” estimate. The minutes of SAGE 11 on 26 February read
That’s the 500,000 figure right there.
As always, that’s the figure I’m talking about. I haven’t studied his model in detail and make no comment about the validity of any other estimates, or predictions, he may have made.
Just jumping in here, why did we flail and fall off a cliff for this Reasonable Worst Case scenario and not past Reasonable Worst Case scenarios ?
The USA the clown is out by a factor of 11 Never thought I say it but the ars#hole has been that consistently bad that his figures are of some usr
Coppers 🚓 Told NOT To Download Test & Trace App “Security Reasons”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcIh4fbHYPY
I read somewhere that NHS staff have also been told not to download the app.
I saw they were told to turn it off at work
A spokesperson for the NHS said the app had nothing to do with them it was the governments.
They’ve been sending hundreds of thousands of texts though, no ?
“A spokesperson for the NHS said the app had nothing to do with them it was the governments.”
It has nothing to do with me either.
Seriously, I’d like a link to the exact reference, if you have one.
The Police have shown that they like to to assemble in large groups, well in excess of six recently.
From a public health perspective, surely the app should be mandatory for them….
Probably, but they can swirl around in the cesspool of their own making if they wish. I won’t join them in there. Definitely no T&T for me.
The benign IT firm I work for today sent an email to all staff full of weasel words that basically said it may be better for us to download it to personal phones and not our company mobile.
I’ve written to him to express my gratitude for the stand he is making. Just to hear a sane voice in Parliament is like a breath of hope.
Long live Sane Dwayne!
Top man – he replied to my email as well, tho I’m not a constituent,
You would think that the Supreme Court would have something to say about the restriction of our liberties but, apparently, if it is in a cause they agree with, it’s all OK.
Now, a prorogation that might lead to Brexit, that’s another matter. That’s serious! They are straight on the case. But lockdown? No, all is fine.
I agree, and I used to be a remainer. There are now Leave/Remain divides now, it is just us, the people, at war against an illegal lockdown which the judiciary are too cowardly to stand against.
“Now, a prorogation that might lead to Brexit, that’s another matter. That’s serious! They are straight on the case. But lockdown? No, all is fine.” No, that’s not how it works. The Supreme Court doesn’t make a ruling on any case until it has worked its way up to them through the High Court and the Court of Appeal, and even then they’ll only rule on the issue as it is presented to them, and will confine themselves to ordering whatever reasonable remedy is asked for. They’ll give a judgment on the government’s response to the perceived threat of this virus when Simon Dolan’s case, or some other challenge, reaches them. Until then, they’ll stay silent about it. The reason they’ll stay silent is because not doing so would be a political act and they know that for the judiciary to get involved in politics on its own initiative could be disastrous. My impression is that Dolan’s case won’t transform the situation fundamentally even if he wins. As far as I’m aware, he’s arguing that the government has acted unlawfully within the existing system. But the underlying problem is the constitutional flaws that make Parliament sovereign without ensuring its integrity… Read more »
81 threatening to rebel with a Tory majority of 80 leaves how many will johnson need to bribe, cajole or blackmail to survive?
The Speaker
Brady’s amendment is not the Promised Land. It’s a face-saving exercise that Bojo could drive a coach and four through if he chose, and might even be in his interests. If these heroic Tories are in earnest, let them vote down the Act.
I share that suspicion. It could be all grandstanding to make it look as if there is some pushback this time.
Yes. I understand why Toby might want to big up Brady, but we should not forget what an absolute shower the Conservative Party has been, as a whole. The balance of probability is very much that the Party is attempting to walk both sides of the street. Grandstanding, as you say.
Sadly the only thing that solves the problem is repealing the act. Even with the amendment it just means rubber stamping because labour will always agree with restrictions and therefore he doesn’t need all his MPs to pass things through.
You missed out threaten, karen.
Seems local lockdowns are not instigated as the result of increasing ‘cases’ as is reported, but from testing the sewage. Thousands of samples are being taken weekly with the advantage of being able to specify infected areas down to single towns or even blocks of streets.
These samples are tested in Department of Environment labs that usually and routinely test our fresh water supplies.
Two points arise
1). Is this the reason Track’n’Trace testing is in such a mess? Insufficient lab capacity is the stated problem. The government prefers testing shit to testing people.
2) Can we look forward to outbreaks of groovy waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhus, hepatitis. . . . 🤯 as our freshwater testing goes on the back burner ?
Let the cry be heard across the land: hands off our shit!
Quite! Am I immune from government interference with my cesspit?
If a government orc tries to test it, push them in and put on the lid. That will be a real test.
A sceptic tank?
Brilliant!
It seems appropriate that a policy of mental sewage should be supported by dabbling in sewage.
One giant shitshow
The government are building a new lab near Exeter to test sewage, god knows how much that is costing.
Shitloads ?
Covid is now apparently spreading excrementally : boom, boom!
good one!
Now that’s class!
What is the source for this? I did wonder what had happened to the sewage survey which was given publicity back at the start of August I think, all has been quiet since then.
There is no source, I talk to a lot of people. Lots of people tell me interesting things. Security guards are but one very good source.
The part about the DoE labs came from inside.
Do you have a link for that? Is the suggestion that the local lockdowns are, in fact, justified? Or might the testing labs be suffering from the same false positives, cross-contamination, ‘cold positives’ issues as the Pillar 2 testing?
They could be making it up as they go along as with all the rest of it.
Perhaps they keep the sewage testing to themselves so that only they know what the situation really is.
l read with interest about false positives and Pillar 2 testing but have no knowledge.
If you can provide a source I can check with a few to confirm as I know people who do exactly this for the water company.
Worth a try but it is the DoE that collects the samples.
Error
Clucking bell, someone has let DEFRA and the fecking Environment agency get involved. God help us all.
The sheer insanity knows no bounds… But to quote Galadriel: “Hope remains, while the company is true.” Hear, hear, Sir Desmond Swayne.
WE are the Company. Facing a quest – for the restoration of sanity in Britain – that may seem hopeless, but has to be pursued BECAUSE IT IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO.
Face up to the Covid Orcs.
Dr Gideon Micropenis brilliant as always.
Local students have been reported shopping in bulk to avoid lonely starvation should they follow Scotland and Manchester into internment.
Might account for claims that panic buying has resumed in some areas.
Example Scenario and cases source pie chart screenshot for use in The Conversation with waverers.
By what mechanism can Police officers be advised not to obey self isolation instructions which would land the rest of us with a £1-10k fine ?
On the subject of policing, very pleasant sounding chap on from the Police Federation on Radio 4 yesterday saying how it would be impossible to enforce new lockdown measures because they lack resources.
Didn’t seem to ‘lack resources’ at Trafalgar Square on Saturday.
Csrl Vernon has an excellent at the scene report on YouTube, one comment noted a banner reading
“One Flu Over The Cuckoo’s Nest”🤪
New to me.
Good pun for ‘flew’
Ken Kesey – great book, great film, superb Jack Nicholson performance – often seen as a broad allegory of the United States being a mental institution governed by a cruel nurse (Animal Farm / Down on Maggie’s Farm) – most apt.
There’s something really weird going on. I read practically every post on here and I’m familiar with everyone’s experience of contact with the masked zombies on a daily basis but I have not had the same experience. Since last week I’ve been making it a thing to go out walking through and around the streets of the town and, out in the open air, I’ve seen one mask, one! Any deliveries we receive are done by unmasked drivers and no postman/woman wears one. No neighbours of ours wear them, no dog walkers wear them. Nobody passing by the house wears them. I’ve never seen any one in our road wearing one. Yesterday I walked past all the mums waiting to pick up their kids from a school and again, not one mask to be seen anywhere. They were stood in groups all chatting, no social distancing as far as I could tell. They weren’t even concerned as I zig-zagged my way through them, no jumping out of the way. I even stopped to talk to the dogs there without anyone batting an eyelid. At the top of our road is another school and nearly all of the mothers pass by… Read more »
They won’t, of course, be ashamed. As in France after WW2 they will all turn out to have been members of The Resistance.
Worse… They will claim that the only reason covid is gone is because of the masks. It will have worked, and they will take all the credit. That is already the story that is being published in our newspapers (WA state). The message: keep wearing them! (Presumably forever)
I’ve suffered abuse and even lost friends over my stance on lockdown, but I hope we can be magnanimous when we win. We’re resisting this for everybody’s futures.
Agree. I always have to remember Churchill when he said:
In War: Resolution; In Defeat: Defiance; In Victory: Magnanimity; In Peace: Good Will
I will be living in a different world.. Different organisations, different church, different friends, new everything. I’ve learned whom and what not to trust.
Talking of France, here’s a scary story I read on the covidinfos forum. A teenage girl is waiting for a friend outside a school (not her own school). Headmaster comes out and tells her to put on a mask. In France you have to wear a mask at school all day including in the classroom. Girl refuses, saying she’s outside the school gates and it isn’t her school. Headmaster threatens to call the police and goes back into the school. Next thing, messages arrive on the girl’s phone from friends on the bus who had witnessed the scene. A police car is on its way! She manages to escape before the gendarmes pile out. They ask the young people standing about who she is. Her friends don’t give her away. Another police car is called. Two police cars go hunting through the streets of the town for a maskless teenager. A couple of friends hide her – one even creates a diversion. She gets away. Men with guns obeying orders, car chases, loyal friends, diversions – it’s like a scene from a war film about the Resistance. For not wearing a mask! .
Sounds like the return of the dreaded Milice. Awful!
Horribly similar to war time when both Jews and members of the Resistance were being hunted. France does of course have a history of doing just that!
In Russia children don’t wear masks in schools.
So which country is a western democracy and which is a dictatorship?
That nice Mr Putin has declared the return of winter flu to be just that.
Hopefully he will soon be dealing with the Russian fergusons with extreme prejudice.
I’d like to see Dr Strangelove crossing swords with Vlad!
Is the one in which peaceful political protesters are baton charged the dictatorship?
Lucky you Doodle, it’s a peer pressure thing. Is your town particularly isolated?
Muzzling seems to be led by shoppers, not so many joggers or dog walkers.
You should encourage your co residents to move afield and spread masklessness throughout the county like a new virus
😷😃
This sounds like Sweden, or towns I visit in my dreams. How can this be so in the UK in 2020?
Comes and goes a bit in my area.
I’m 200 yards from a primary school; most mums, no mask, but kids are (cruelty); most delivery guys and the posties, no mask, but… my God, the number of people I see alone in their car, driving past my house wearing a mask, with the windows up, is something I cannot fathom at all.
Another one that gets me: people (masked) stepping off the pavement into the aforementioned road to avoid my unmasked face. I’m going to end up causing a road accident one day, and the poor bastard will, no doubt, be put down as having died of Covid. 🙂
You will not have caused the accident.
Fear and paranoia caused it. Generated by the government and the media.
We’re in a large village, very few in masks round here. If you go into our nearest city there are significantly more, but it’s still far from universal. This is one of the reasons I’m so suspicious about opinion polls on acceptance of government diktats – I can’t see any obvious pattern in masking by geography, race, sex, age. Obviously I can’t see political orientation, but there’s no obvious reason why that would make a difference either. If the critera which make people more likely to mask up (and presumably more likely to support other measures) are so ephemeral, how can you possibly weight a sample of votes on the matter to the population as a whole?
I think in cities, where people encounter strangers most of the time, it’s a mix of herd mentality/risk of shaming, virtue signalling, thinking that the more we comply the sooner it will be over with and others who think that the more measures are introduced the worse the Covid must be.
It’s odd because cities due to their size and offer a large measure of anonymity that one would have thought there would be less muzzling because the chances of bumping into someone you know is small to non-existent.
However I have to agree with you on virtue signalling. I live & work in London and there is a lot of virtue signalling here, particularly in places with a large upper middle class presence.
Add in people who come from very conformist cultures and yep, one can see the reason why there would be more muzzling in cities.
I agree. People are worried they’ll stand out. It’s that simple.
The experiment will only stand any chance of seeing an impact if everyone wears a masks everywhere all of the time. Including in your own home. 100% compliance. So mandates needed as, without them, very few choose t wear them. The really ironic thing is to make themselves feel better, even though they are only wearing them because they’ve been told to, they now think they are all about the science and victimise anyone who dares to carry on mask less.
It’s shown the worst in people. They don’t even know the guidance half the time. Seen so many people wearing masks with the filters when the guidance says explicitly not to use them as they are useless when dealing with a virus.
People are total sheep. I am thinking of starting a new business because if they can be hoodwinked so easily, I’ve underestimated how easy it must be to take their money.
Where do you live? I spend my time shuttling between Wiltshire and LOndon.
Wiltshire is mask free apart from the supermarket. London, a good minority wear them on the street. Age is irrelevant. I stare at them hard but I would love one of your T shirts so they knew why.
I live in a small town in Northumberland which is full of masked zombies, mainly in the queue outside Waitrose! B&M Bargains, far less so. There is a definite class element to this. The landed gentry and the farmers think the whole thing is nonsense. A friend told me approvingly the other day about an auctioneer at the Mart who, having been instructed to wear a ‘face covering’ by the management, was striding around the cattle pens in a bandana like a baddie in a Western, telling everyone how absurd it was. Farmers, of course, know about animal disease and suffered from FMD in 2001. The working class is largely ignoring the whole thing, particularly the men. There are plenty of obediently masked women in shops but the men have a hastily tied Newcastle United scarf, if anything at all. The council estate near me is paying no heed to the ‘no household mixing’ rule and is continuing to hold bonfire parties in the gardens; a phenomenon here throughout every summer and up until Bonfire Night. There have already been fireworks. As everyone there is related to each other and few of them work or go anywhere except Aldi for… Read more »
Brilliant social observation on both sides of the fence, thank you.
Best read of the day, thanks Caroline!
Very few outdoor masks where I live – a medium sized county town. Very high compliance in shops, some in the street near shops (people not taking them off between exiting one shop and entering the next) but otherwise close to zero. People distance here more than in London, but I wonder if that’s partly because we can – there’s more space and people are in less of a hurry. On recent trips to London, a lot more outdoor mask wearing there, but may be related to shops and public transport.
You’re lucky. I’ve become discombubulated in my own workplace because I’m the only one unmuzzled (both staff and visitors). Still, its nice that some visitors deliberately approach me because I’m not wearing a mask.
I went to Seattle recently and I don’t think I saw more than one or two unmasked faces. Even people outside, riding bikes or jogging, all alone… Lots of masks in cars, too.
Sorry, can’t make it out … “you will be ?????” Guess my screen resolution is not quite up to it.
Village in the East Midlands. Currently masks are few, not in the shop, not at school. Our local town has them in the shops but probably 30% outside. Majority still free faced at the moment
Well I live in Muzzleville yesterday, which is (or was) a prosperous large town in Southern England.
Nearly everyone is muzzled inside, with quite a few people muzzled out on the streets too and in their cars.
I went to my local shop yesterday and three out of four people I met on the street cringed away as I approached; one in a doorway, one held back from a narrower part of the path and one went into someone’s driveway.
One of these people, a dog walker, was even muzzled out on an empty street – though his dog wasn’t!
It looks like perhaps the muzzles are a smug middle class thing. Perhaps the Johnson psycho-warfare doesn’t work so well on working class types.
If you’re constantly having to face genuine problems then you tend to have a very sensitive BS radar.
https://ifunny.co/picture/if-you-re-wearing-a-mask-inside-of-your-car-t7gidnHq7
(Seen on UK Column yesterday) MW
Where can I get one?
Right HERE!
You are! Masked zombies everywhere I go, even out on the streets.
Another great t-shirt!
Awesome shirt!!
Dido’s Lament a poignant choice given its traditional place at the Cenotaph.
Remember me,
remember me,
but ah
Forget my fate
Still nonsense being talked about Spain and France. If you look at any proper analysis ‘cases’ have gone up massively and hospitalisations, ICUs and deaths have hardly moved. To the extent they have, the prevalence of positive tests in the population at large (8.3%) is far greater than the prevalence in the deaths (2.7%) – figures for France. So no evidence at all of any ‘second wave’.
And there was I thinking nobody took any notice of the over-rated, opinionated mediocrity Brendan O’Neill, who does a very good impersonation of someone who knows fuck-all about anything.
Just you and me then William. 🙂
Utter bollocks that piece Toby included today. The reset concept (and its implications) maybe terrifies him (Brendan) sufficiently for his brain to stop functioning ?
It is absolutely essential that anyone who can do, contacts their MP. I’m surprised Toby hasn’t already flagged this.
https://twitter.com/libertyhq/status/1310584445490147328?s=20
I, like others, have written to my MP more than once, but with absolutely no response. Do you think that they even read their mail?
Same here, but I’ve seen mine stand up in Parliament and is one of the so called ‘rebels’ so he’s onside but maybe getting inundated with mail and too swamped to wade through it. He did say he’s seeing constituents again, with or without a mask.
I kept getting a standard answer (usually to a question I hadn’t asked) several weeks later. Given up, the plan no doubt. No chance of ever voting her out (Whately).
Saw her on a video yesterday – nasty piece of work, incapable of rational thought.
Re: the graph. It seems to be that the virus went into retreat just a couple of days after Johnson’s spectacular Churchillian speech. Could it be that he so effectively mobilized the English language, and – perhaps combined with the threat of bringing in the army – scared the nasty virus away? I can’t think of any other logical explanation to account for the non realization of Witless and Unbalanced non predictive prediction….
“Churchillian” ?
johnson is not fit to wear the great mans trousers though he might just squeeze into his bloomers.
Plenty of room in those, as Boris has no balls.
He’s not even a good tribute act.
Closer to one of those fat Las Vegas Elvis’s
The perversion if language is indeed having a powerful effect on the witless. Indeed, when sanity returns (yes, WHEN – I’m sticking to that), and the huge academic industry of Covid Insanity Studies begins, Covvielanguage (‘covocabulary’) will be a big branch of that industry.
David Crystal, who has got rich by writing popular books on the English language, is already beavering away. He thinks it’s all great and shows what creative little kiddiewinkies we all are. See e.g.
http://www.davidcrystal.com/Files/BooksAndArticles/-5349.pdf
Many of those words will remain forever, long after people forget where they came from
Ring a ring of roses
A pocket full of Posies
Atishoo Atishoo
We All Fall Down
Or, as I wrote some time ago here:
Ring a ring of morons,
Time to put the masks on
Atishoo Atishoo
We all lock down
It’s just occured to me, if schoolchildren still sing that nursery rhyme would it be in breach of No Covid Jokes policy ?
You could be right! Another offence for the Thought Police to investigate!
Sneezing, amazingly, is on the very short list of things that are not a symptom according to WHO, CDC and Boots (link posted here a few days ago).
I sneezed on a bus journey recently and the woman seated across the isle started and looked worried.
I must up my snuff consumption. Usually only on long train rides or flights. But I see an opportunity here …
O yes! Loud explosive eruptions accompanied by conspicuous snuff consumption.
It does get you funny looks in some pubs, where other substances are (allegedly) taken nasally. 🙂
https://twitter.com/Barcajim3/status/1310670512465555456
Really enjoyed Jon Snow’s excellent rant at Handjob last night, especially the “we are a laughing stock” line.
He’s right, sadly, but if Snow thinks we are a laughing stock now, wait till he sees Johnson’s plan for our new national flag. (see below).
hancock “. . . i hope. . . ”
Tersely interrupted
Jon Snow “you know nothing of what’s going on”
hancock ” . . . . .”
Marvellous stuff.
Surely a front runner for the new UN flag?
… or WHO
It’s actually the same colour as the current UN flag
What Hancock knows, and what Snow now realises and is so animated about after months of supine obeisance, is that their wealth is gone. The upper middle class are being thrown under the bus along with everyone else. No wonder we are hearing rumours of a Tory backbench “rebellion” against the government. And they are paying for their children to be incarcerated at university, which I’m sure has fuelled the increase in MSM animosity towards the government in recent days.
Jon’s finger poking 👉 at hancock was quite remarkable.
I would recommend knuckle dusters next time round.
Nearly Annie; I know you are too ladylike to have watched the Tom Hardy portrayal of the Kray twins, but the start of the pub fight between the Krays and the loudmouths who think that Reggie is going to get a hiding in the pub (he pulls out a pair of knuckledusters, and Ronnie sneaks in with a pair of hammers) is quite pleasant to watch, if you visualise the Krays as the public and the other gang as the COVID-authoritarians within our society.
Not to mention that months ago Sunak didn’t rule out tax raids on pensions and he’s long wanted to abolish the triple lock. As our economy goes into freefall, I can picture the Treasury doing exactly that. Hence why the upper MC who were so enthusiastic about lockdown and the associated paraphernalia are slowly turning against it. Not only are their little darlings turning into inmates at Dachau but also their wealth is next on the hit list.
Their conversion to the cause of lockdown scepticism is most welcome however they have to realise that they will have to share the economic pain just like the rest of us.
Wait for the wealth tax, that will wake a few more people.
Exactly. I think Sunak was also gunning for that when he mentioned that he wanted to get rid of the triple lock. That should make the upper MC folk quake in their boots.
The student incarceration has finally brought the covid restrictions home to roost for the liberal chattering classes. They have loved working from home and signalling their wealth and virtue but now Lola and Olive aren’t getting their university experience they are finally starting to question the necessity of lockdown…
Indeed. Empathy for less well-off people evidently not their strong point.
Yes, because this is a situation that they cannot ‘pay their way out of’ – ie they cannot use their money to get ‘Lola and Olive’ special privileges like exemption from the rules…
was this clip from last night?
Shared on our Twitter!
It’s not too late to write to your MP to “encourage them” to vote down the Coronavirus Act tomorrow. Sharing our experiences here helps keep our spirits up but unless Bojo and the Clowns get a bloody nose, this nightmare will continue.
A clear demonstration showing how the lockdown saved no lives in Britain,
using Ferguson’s predictions for deaths in Britain and Sweden and what actually happened in both countries.
If you take Ferguson’s prediction for no lockdown Sweden with the official death rate it was 12 times lower.
SWEDEN Prediction 70,000 official deaths 5,880
Divide Neil Ferguson’s (Imperial College London) prediction for the UK with no lockdown,
UK 500,000 by 12 you reach a figure of 41,666.
Currently the official figure for the UK is 41,988
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bpu87AHIILA
Andrew Neil: “Boris Johnson panicked – hard to say Sweden was wrong” (and what it means for the UK)
Please share – send to your MP, whatever
Coppers 🚓 Told NOT To Download Test & Trace App “Security Reasons”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcIh4fbHYPY
The proles in Orwell’s 1984 had it better than the current undermensch of the UK
The pubs were open, no track and trace, and they could stand at bar and sing if they wished. They were free to mix with their parents, children, and grandchildren
It was ok to mingle with friends
Ok, so they had no access to dentistry, or medical care, but neither do we anymore
They had a few casualties caused by the rockets fired from East Asia, but the numbers were tiny compared with how many this dictator has killed
Life was pretty safe and torture was only inflicted on members of the party.
Personally, I have no problem with a hungary rat being inserted in handy cock’s helmut (titter ye not)
Titter😀as😊much😂I😅like,😅thank🤧you😜
Doubleplus-good.
does it have to be hungarian or will any east european rat do. ?
Were the rockets really Eastasian? Party terror tactic quite possible, as now.
‘Mask recognition technology’???
Can’t the posse of bullying thugs that lurks outside every supermarket tell the difference between a human being and a nappied sheeple? They need a machine to do it for them?
In big Chinese cities they use an app with facial recognition that docks your bank account (also on the app) the moment you drop an item in your shopping bag. No credit card or phone needs swiping.
Sounds great except they cancel you if you fail to sing the Great Leaders praises enthusiastically enough each morning.
Cash is not an option.
Oh, but the convenience of no cash.
Just think how you can save yourself all of a minute or two whenever. you go the shops. I don’t know about anyone else, but if I can save a couple of minutes every time I buy something, I could easily be saving 10 minutes a week, maybe 15? Surely that’s worth giving all your freedom up for?
in sweden (i think) they have trialled microchips implanted in the arm. not only gets you through doors but can be used for payment
they also use the same technology to issue toilet paper in public toilets. You get 5 pieces. if that is not enough you have to go out, wait 10 minutes and then come back in again. .
Humorous but then if you extend this to Xingjiang and the Uyghurs where additionally they have QR codes on houses (that the police can scan to get details of who is there), mandatory apps on the phone, phone scanning points where the police download the contents of your phone.
Sounds familiar
Need to see your face for that, then?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLV4_xaYynY
Hendrix ‘All Along The Watchtower’ ;a song for our times.
And, for our hapless, confined,overcharged,shamefully imprisoned students, I predict electrified fences and watchtowers.
For Oxford and Cambridge colleges?
It’ll be a challenge … but I dare say Britain’s New Model SS will rise to it.
Locally it’s one road in and one road out.
Two Watchtowers will suffice.
Think you’re right Annie : the einsatzgruppen will take up the challenge,masked,armed with tasers and eager to do their patriotic duty.
SS Covidmeister Hancock will direct from Westminster,and change the rules on an ad hoc basis, just to keep the squads on their toes.
And up here, Chef Oberaufseherin Sturgeon will direct from Holyrood,ensuring that the Kommandofuhrerinen stick to allocated schedules.
Vernichtung durch arbeit
I always much preferred the Dylan version!
I think both are good;albeit very different.
‘John Wesley Harding’ is one of his best LPs,along with ‘The Freewheelin’ Bob Dylan’
Blood on the Tracks for me, and Bringing it all Back Home.
I’d forgotten ‘Blood on the Tracks’; ‘Simple twist of Fate’ is a favourite.
‘Idiot Wind’ seems appropriate now.
And this, picking up wendyk’s hapless, confined,overcharged,shamefully imprisoned students
Tolling for the aching ones whose wounds cannot be nursed
For the countless confused, accused, misused, strung-out ones an’ worse
An’ for every hung-up person in the whole wide universe
An’ we gazed upon the chimes of freedom flashing
I’ve often thought of ‘Chimes of Freedom Flashing’ in the last few months, but especially ‘It’s alright Ma’, and ‘Let me die in my Footsteps’.
Combined rather brilliantly with Hurricane in Girl from the North Country. Odds on ever seeing that live again? Still waiting for news of Leopoldstadt starting up again.
Hendrix played at Woodstock during an Avian flu pandemic,
Simple questions to ask people to make them think.
1. Do you know anyone who has died of Covid 19?
2. Where are the deaths in supermarkets?
3. Why did Covid 19 clear up so quickly in China?
4. If masks work why is influenza on the rise currently as it does every winter? Why were we constantly told mask don’t work?
I mentioned the 200 daily deaths from Summer flu to someone, unsurprisingly they had no idea.
You do have to be careful asking your question 1, we know a number of people who have died of Covid and more who have been seriously ill. If you ask your question 1 and the answer is yes then the whole conversation switches to a personal and emotional basis.
Don’t get me wrong I think the lockdown and masks are all nonsense but some people have had some sad personal and tragic experiences over the last 6 months.
You’re right.
Of course, many other people have had personal and tragic experiences with death from other causes, but what does a. Coronazombie care about other people?
No. You are talking about borderline psychotic behaviour – interning children, forcibly vaccinating people. Troubled individuals.
I am convinced that the biggest factor in covid deaths was intubation. When they stopped sticking tubes into people, as the Chinese had told the world was necessary, and followed the evidence of their eyes/ their instincts as clinicians, the fatality rate fell off a cliff.
a 50% death rate for the intubated isn’t it?
Corollary to number 4 – why is it that despite mask wearing why is it that East Asia has one of the highest statistics when it comes to flu?
It is a widely held misconception that Asians are used to wearing masks.
That is simply not true. Until this Feb, seeing someone wearing a mask in any Chinese city or anywhere in South East Asia was a rarity.
When you saw somebody with a mask it was either
(a) because they were protecting themselves from pollution
(b) they were a sophisticated urbanite with a cold of some sort being considerate
The vast vast vast majority of people never wore masks.
Agree. When Mr Bart and I went to Japan nearly 3 years ago, there weren’t that many people wearing masks however even then there was a phenomenon where you get people who aren’t even sick wearing them – mostly young people. Which has lead to Japanese mental health experts raising the alarm over the growing social maladujstment among the country’s young people.
I was in Hong Kong in 2018. Didn’t see anyone in a mask.
Its more a Japanese thing really rather that Chinese.
Question one is a very very bad question. This is because just about anybody will say they “know” sombody who died of “IT”. This will be granny who was old and ill anyway, or “a guy at work” who’s mates dad died of “IT”. Everybody has a STORY and a stake in the Corona Movie. This is the number one put-down that a covid cultist will use to justify EVERYTHING. Its an easy and obvious show stopper. It will shut down any discussion of any counter-narrative FAST The next one that cultists will use is, well my Mum/gran/child/aunty/etc is immuno suppressed or vulnerable so I am doing “the covid thing” to protect them. It’s hard to counter than without sounding callous. Steer round that one to, putting a person in a position where they have to hit you with this one. Perhaps it would be better to ask them first if they are “shielding” then you can be all sympathetic towards them and take the take approach of trying to lift their fears. I can’t help thinking that there will be real need for trained councillors to de-program the brainwashed. It’s so serious the damage that has been done to… Read more »
I,m not prepared to take a lecture from a person with a haircut like that
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54328475
Even mine looks better than that and I’m still doing mine myself.😱
But there’s a smidgeon of humanity in what she says:
‘And as one of Wales’ leading end-of-life care specialists she is calling for health organisations not to impose a blanket ban on families visiting due to coronavirus restrictions going forward.
During the peak it was not uncommon for next of kin be prevented from spending their final hours with their loved ones.
“I think we need to have a much more nuanced, gentle, compassionate approach to how we manage people who are dying and those who love them,” she said.
“They want to be with them [at the end], they want to sit with them, of course they do.
“And I worry that we may have got the balance wrong and we need to get it right.”‘
I didn’t think any if our Covid Death Ministers was human enough to think that dying people ought not to be abandoned. After all, these ministers aren’t savages. Savages know better.
She still thinks we need to “flatten that curve” for the exhausted NHS! What curve is she looking at?
The excellent Sir Desmond has a blog
https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/
Definitely worth following. Pearls from Swayne!
‘Pearls from Swayne” very good.
A gem from annie
💎
Hi Annie,
Apologies, thread diversion. I don’t get time to read all the posts on here, and often browse them very late. By chance yesterday I came across your post telling of your experience going to church unmasked, and was saddened to read it.
I’m not one for revealed religion, being more of a deist myself, but feel sure that God appreciates those who step outside of groupthink and act according to their own conscience on what they deem to be right, especially when it requires the courage which you have so resolutely displayed.
Doodle’s t-shirt on here today will be proved true, I am sure.
I’m reminded totally out of the blue of the Sunday School parable (?) about a jester doing acrobatic stunts in front of an alter.
He is reprimanded by one priest before another declares that he is doing the right thing by offering his one skill to God.
That’s a vey old story.The Virgin came down from her plinth and mopped the brow of the tumbler, because he’d done his very best in her honour.
Thank you, TJN.
I’m going to go next Sunday, to show I haven’t been scared off, and then never again. I won’t worship the Covid devil in what used to be a house of God.
Good on you.
TJN
This virus hoo-haa has seen statistics and figures thrown around and used just to make a point rather than with any sense of logic and context.
They just announced on the BBc radio that over 1 million people around the World have died from Covid and said no more. I think that is an example of the poor journalism that has characterised this hoo-haa. I million sounds a lot but it needs to be put into context. When I heard that figure I had no idea how many people die around the world each year and I expect neither did many listeners.
It looks as though 57 million people die each year around the world and so 1 million Covid deaths represents; 1.75% of the worlds annual deaths. Project Covid fear continues and I am afraid The BBC have become its mouthpiece. All they had to do was to put the 1 million figure into the context of 1.75% to give a much more balanced news item.
That figure is about as trustworthy as Matt Hancock and the BBC surely knows this.
I posted a similar though less comprehensive comment above before reading this, they really are shocking, we need our sceptical comrades with access to the media to make this point.
There almost seems to be some kind of sick celebration around their now being 1 million deaths, in the same way that the MSM we wanting Sweden to fail and thus every time the death rate or infections went up they would be bosting we were right they were wrong, just hoping that Sweden would fail.
The Beeb just LOVES death.
Oooooh they do. Mummmmm DEATH!
Trafalgar Square demo.
Just seen at Breitbart UK 27th Sept.
4 minute vid, from about 3 mins police are penned in by angry but not hostile crowd, unmasked anxious looking officer talks to worried looking colleague to confirm what appears to be an exit strategy using those choppy hand gestures.
At 3.30 an officer at the rear batons a person to the ground After Which several others pile in on him when he was already down. Shocking.
Sorry, can’t do links from Android.
Aaronson and Rutherford return to The Ministry of Love and another spell in room 101 with uncle Dom
https://images.app.goo.gl/j4aZ8tY324BKuFNU8
Daily Mail: RICHARD LITTLEJOHN: These restrictions are a concerted assault on our civil liberties.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8782781/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-restrictions-concerted-assault-civil-liberties.html
I do hope Hancock et al. read it.
Yes, I’d love to see his face when he sees himself described as an ‘infuriating little squit’ !!!
‘Priti Flamingo’ was also an inspired choice of description!
His best so far. “.. a baffled Tory minister… told him: ‘We got one briefing note about how people could be allowed to mingle. It said they could meet in the garden if they socially distance, but couldn’t enter a Wendy House if there was one.”
We had a lovely meal out last night in a busy restaurant. No masks, no obvious restrictions, just people talking, laughing, eating – enjoying themselves as normal human beings. Afterwards a drink at the bar. What happens at 10 o’clock? Nothing – people keep on enjoying themselves. Where am I? Haarlem in the Netherlands enjoying normality.
This does raise the questions of why is there such a ridiculous over reaction to Covid 19 in the UK and why the people are accepting it. Why is the Uk the stupidest and most subservient nation in Europe?
I am dreading returning to the UK particularly as I will be placed under house arrest by the evil regime that we live under.
I will never be able to look on the British people in the same light again. I’m actually ashamed to be British now.
So much of what I thought being British stood for has gone now. Having said that, there are still a very small minority, many of whom have presumably gravitated to this site, still stand tall. Perhaps it was ever thus.
I have British and Irish passports and have always confused people by being proud to hail from both countries but, sadly, I am ashamed of the cowardly and unscientific approach of both countries to this virus.
The English-speaking countries appear to be especially bad. Odd.
According to the BBC the Netherlands are introducing a 10 pm curfew https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54331921
According to the BBC, we reached the ;agonising’ worldwide 1m milestone’, worldwide!!
And people still say this isn’t a conspiracy
Taking of conspiracies: I’ve just been reading Mercola.com and am somewhat worried by this, given that Boris has actually mentioned Bill Gates in recent speeches: Cryptocurrency System Based on Human Body Activity Shiva (Vandana Shiva) goes on to review a patent granted to Microsoft the last week of March 2020, for a cryptocurrency system based on human body activity. Everything from brain activity and body fluid flows to organ activity and various muscle movements is to be used to mine for cryptocurrency in this system. Coincidentally, the number on this patent is 060606. Remove the zeros and you end up with the ill-fated number “666,” which also happens to show up in the monstrously unconstitutional U.S. surveillance bill H.R. 6666. “The patent is an intellectual property claim over our bodies and minds,” Shiva writes.25 “In colonialism, colonizers assign themselves the right to take the land and resources of indigenous people, extinguish their cultures and sovereignty, and in extreme cases exterminate them. Patent WO 060606 is a declaration by Microsoft that our bodies and minds are its new colonies. We are mines of ‘raw material’ — the data extracted from our bodies. Rather than sovereign, spiritual, conscious, intelligent beings making decisions and choices with wisdom and… Read more »
That’s what they want. A Google standardised education for all global citizens. Human augmented Cyborgs, on the grid from birth with no ability to opt out.
It’s truly horrifying, especially now Boris has openly said Bill Gates is working with the UK..
Oops
Yes very worrying. Dr Mercola’s articles are always spot on, very well researched.
Went to a regular cafe on the beach yesterday, having been away for 1 week and was told, no can’t sit there,have to join the queue to be shown a seat and table service, no queue and was told to sit in the marquee thing they’ve erected, No I said, well would you like to sign in then, so afraid to say I had a melt down which resulted in me storming out but looking in disgust at those already complying. Walked 2 miles along the beach to another cafe, completely different, no rules and after ordering at the counter, asked where was I sitting. Its completely mad and crazy.
Good for you, I’m envious. Unfortunately I live in the North East of England and we are being hit hard by the latest round of authoritarianism from our Government. We were booked in to a restaurant this coming Saturday for a table of four, my wife, sister and brother in law. Now, that has to be cancelled as we are from different households. Even though the restaurant will be full of people we don’t know (or will it), the absolute madness of it all is turning me insane.
Why are you going to obey this law?
Why did you tell them who was in your party. You could of just had one person put their “name” down and +3
Steady on. I think the Spaniards might have something to say about your comments. They have a bona fide claim to be being the stupidest and most subservient nation in Europe. They do all the things the UK does plus:
But the UK is almost certainly in the top 2.
Fair point Stewart; it seems we are in a stupidity contest with Spain, although as I live in Scotland there isn’t much in it. Incidentally just enjoyed an excellent mask free breakfast and we are about to head in to the mask free town to enjoy some mask free shopping. We are trying to overdose on freedom to tide us over the dark days ahead when we return to the UK. At least we will be reunited with other family members, or is that banned as well?
Stay in Haarlem andI wish I could join you!
I went there once.
When regulars stop posting on here I often wonder what’s become of them – that’s social media for you.
But does anyone know what has happened to Wendy?
Maybe I’ve missed something, but I haven’t seen anything from her for ages. She seemed to get so much support from being on here, and clearly was going through a tough time with her Dad in a care home.
I’m sure I saw something with her name on it this morning. Unless it’s a different Wendy of course.
Wendyk posts regularly, but I guess there’s no connection.
No, I’m a different Wendy