Latest News

75,000 Government’s Official Projection of Lockdown Deaths

But does it even save lives?

The Mail has discovered the figure the Government has put on the number of collateral deaths caused by the lockdown buried in a SAGE report.

Nearly 75,000 people could die from non-Covid causes as a result of lockdown, according to a devastating official figures buried in a 188-page document.

The startling research, presented to the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), will further increase pressure on Boris Johnson to hold back on introducing further coronavirus restrictions.

The document reveals 16,000 people died as a result of the chaos in hospitals and care homes in March and April alone.

It estimates a further 26,000 will lose their lives within a year if people continue to stay away from A&E and the problems in social care persist.

And an additional 31,900 could die over the next five years as a result of missed cancer diagnoses, cancelled operations and the health impacts of a recession.

The toll of deaths directly linked to the virus last night stood at 41,936.

The estimates, drawn up by civil servants at the Department of Health, the Office for National Statistics and the Home Office, were presented to Sage at a meeting on July 15th. The documents stressed that had nothing been done to stop the spread of the virus in March, 400,000 people could have died of Covid.

And if the NHS had been overrun, this figure might have even soared to 1.4 million. But they acknowledged the restrictions had significant unintended consequences.

How can the Government still believe these catastrophic predictions from discredited models when the experience of countries like Sweden, Tanzania and Belarus show the truth about what happens under minimal restrictions? Is it a case of refusing to believe the evidence of one’s own eyes because it is too painful? Certainly, there is some serious corporate groupthink going on.

Incidentally, we can expect the press to periodically discover these reports to Sage. They’re part of a series being done by the Department of Health and Social Care, the Office for National Statistics, the Government Actuary’s Department and the Home Office. The first of these was published in April.

Stop Press: A famous financial journalist who has long been an anonymous contributor to Lockdown Sceptics thinks he knows what the problem is:

Ex Governor of Bank of England Mervyn King has written a book with John Kay recently called Radical Uncertainty. Lots of stuff about the unreliability of models (all models are wrong some are useful). Their simple advice is for people to lay down the model and ask, “What’s going on here?” Boris and his crew in Downing Street don’t have the good sense to do just that. And the cost of their failure in unfathomable.

Economics Prof Replies to More or Less

Take that, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter

More or Less, the Radio 4 stats programme, wheeled out Sir David Spiegelhalter to ridicule those of us who’ve been highlighting the false positive rate this week, claiming it was all a storm in a teacup. The Huffington Post had a go, too, naming Julia Hartley-Brewer and Toby, among the rank amateurs who’ve apparently misunderstood just how insignificant false positives really are.

We couldn’t let that slide, obviously, and today we’re publishing an original piece by Gordon Hughes, a former Professor of Economics at Edinburgh University, rebutting these criticisms. Here’s an extract:

The core problem is that the UK is relying upon a set of policymakers who appear to be neither competent nor willing to be honest about the choices that are being made. Selling policies to credulous journalists is simple. Convincing a wider public that contains a significant number of people who have the expertise and willingness to challenge what appears to be irrational policy is a different matter. The UK Government appears to believe that honesty will further reduce already low levels of willingness to comply with current policies. What they – and their public supporters – should recognize is that the unwillingness to admit and discuss the complexity of the cost-benefit calculations that surround testing merely fuels the lack of trust in current policies. Many of the public statements are so obviously wrong that it is hard to give credit to the more generous view that the policymakers are not really incompetent but merely dealing with a very difficult situation.

That, it seems to me, is the real lesson from Sweden. There were many people in the Swedish medical establishment who profoundly disagreed – and still disagree – with the policies recommended by the State Epidemiologist. There was an open debate and individuals were allowed to make their own choices. The outcome was mixed and the sources of failure have been identified and followed up. In the UK – across all of the nations – the attitude is that we (the “experts”) know better than everyone else and you must just do what we say. That is never a good story in an educated democracy. It is especially weak when the self-declared experts are easily challenged on a string of assumptions and issues so that their credibility cannot be sustained. All that is being achieved is a polarization of trust and belief in the competence of both politicians and those who advise them.

Worth reading in full.

Does Sweden Have Herd Immunity?

Stockholmers soaking up the spring sunshine outside a restaurant on April 22, 2020.
A bustling Stockholm in April

As Sweden comes in from the cold, with its scientific advisers being granted audiences with governments around the world and Dorit Nitzan, the WHO’s Regional Emergency Director for Europe, saying the country can “provide lessons for the global community”, attention has turned to the secret of their success.

Kim Sneppen, professor of biocomplexity at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen and a leading virologist, said this week: “There is some evidence that the Swedes have built up a degree of immunity to the virus which, along with what else they are doing to stop the spread, is enough to control the disease… They may now be finished with the epidemic.”

However, the role of immunity in Sweden remains contested. State epidemiologist Dr Anders Tegnell himself has downplayed it, answering a question this week comparing Sweden and Spain by stressing that achieving “herd immunity” had never been a goal of Sweden’s strategy (despite emails surfacing which suggest otherwise). He said:

I’m not sure that the level of immunity in Sweden and in Spain differs very much. I think the main difference between Sweden and many other countries is that we have had the same kind of restrictions and recommendations in place the whole time. And we have a really big adherence from the population to those recommendations. And that makes a difference, that makes us hopefully less susceptible to a second wave.

Maybe we’ll have the same experience in a few weeks’ time, we’ll see, but as I said, I think the big difference is that Spain had a strict lockdown and then opened up again, and then you do get back to quite a lot spread of disease.

Italy currently has even lower “cases” per 100,000 than Sweden (35 vs 37) but it would be hard to argue Italians are a peculiarly compliant people in the way Dorit Nitzan does of Swedes. From the Guardian:

Nitzan stressed that Sweden’s approach may not be applicable everywhere. Other countries should take into account that “in Sweden, the social contract between the government and its population is historically based on a very high level of trust”, she said. “That is the way the Swedish people and the government interact.”

Following the Swedish example, therefore, should not mean “adopting the exact same measures”, she said. “There are lessons to learn from every country. None has done it perfectly; all have made mistakes.

“Each country’s strategy to curb COVID-19 should be based on its specific situation and context, and be both scientifically sound and culturally acceptable. This is Sweden’s approach.”

When Boris Johnson claimed in the Commons that Brits are more freedom-loving than Italians as an explanation for why the UK is now faring worse than Italy he was rebuked by the Italian president, while Corriere della Sera, an Italian national newspaper, wrote on its front page:

Let me get this right – the country that invented queuing and immaculate lawns is not able to obey rules? Instead, group discipline is a trait of the Italians, a people who have a well-deserved reputation for disdain for regulations and individualism verging on anarchy?

There is a danger that the important lessons of the epidemic will be lost in sub-scientific generalisations about supposed national character traits that wrongly imply lockdowns are right for some places but not for others ironically, it appears, the more “freedom-loving” a country is, the greater the need for a firm hand. When Nitzan and Tegnell claim that Swedes have been more compliant than Spaniards, what hard evidence is that based on? The Italians complain about the false stereotypes sent in their direction. We Brits should protest no less loudly about being so supposedly freedom-loving that only a good firm lockdown will break our spirits and keep us in line.

It also needs to be remembered that Spain had one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in Europe whereas Sweden never limited the size of gatherings to less than 50, never closed shops, restaurants, night clubs, schools under 16, or anything else, and never imposed or even encouraged face masks. Are we supposed to believe young people in Sweden stopped socialising and stopped going to parties? What basis is there for thinking that? The pictures that went round in April of young people in Stockholm crowding into nightclubs and cafes shows this up for the nonsense it is, while a recent BMJ article quoted Karolinska Institute immunologist Marcus Buggert in August saying that social distancing in Sweden was “always poorly followed, and it’s only become worse”.

Furthermore, even if Swedes were more compliant with their Government’s guidelines, the guidelines were so loose compared with what was imposed elsewhere that it’s hard to see how the mere fact of compliance makes all the difference.

The antibody rates in Sweden are, as Dr Tegnell notes, similar to those found in Spain and Italy. But then maybe that is why Italy also has no second wave, and Spain’s second ripple appears to be peaking, with the Carlos III Health Institute pointing out that the data on PCR tests by date of symptom onset shows the epidemic topping out weeks ago, even before the end of August.

The evidence for the early emergence of collective immunity rooted in T-cell cross-immunity from previous cold viruses continues to mount. Which is why one of the world’s leading epidemiologists, Oxford’s Professor Sunetra Gupta, is convinced it is playing a major role. It may suit the governments of the world to pretend that it’s all about a myth of Swedish stoicism and not about immunity so that they can exculpate themselves for not taking the same path in March.

But the danger is that the reality of immunity, which would allow countries to go back to normal (actual normal, not New Normal) becomes officially denied and buried. Even in Sweden the Government has called a halt to the lifting of restrictions, with a cap of 50 people in a group now set to remain and local lockdowns being threatened should local outbreaks occur. If Sweden can’t learn the lesson of Sweden, what hope is there for the rest of us?

As the autumn ripples in Spain, France and Britain fade, we need to make sure our leaders learn the right lessons, and can’t get away with crediting the new restrictions, the national temperament, the stars, or anything else except the only thing with hard scientific evidence behind it: immunity.

Stop Press: Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph points out that Chris Whitty rejects the immunity idea because, he says, people aren’t immune to colds and so it is probably short-lived. I suggest Professor Whitty urgently needs to widen his pool of advisers, starting with the immunologists and virologists who wrote this STAT article in August.

The experts who spoke with STAT all felt that the immune responses to this virus are exactly what you would expect to see. And the case of the Hong Kong man who appears to have been reinfected underscore that, several said.

“The fact that somebody may get reinfected is not surprising. But the reinfection didn’t cause disease,” said Peiris, who knows about the case but was not one of the authors reporting it.

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York who studies human responses to viral infections, said it is hard to be definitive, given the limited human experience with this new coronavirus, but she said she could see no reason to believe the immune system would behave differently to this respiratory virus than to others.

“So far, anyway, the evidence supports functional immunity, but the only way to see how long that will last is to follow people over time and see if those responses diminish,” she said.

“The idea there is that, yes, your antibodies might wane, but your memory responses aren’t absent,” said Menachery, noting that when a primed immune system re-encounters the virus, production of antibodies would kick into gear.

A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words

Image
Hat tip UK COVID-19

Is ‘Zero-Covid’ Now a UK-Wide policy?

Readers will recall that we were critical of Prof Devi Sridhar’s ‘zero-Covid’ strategy because: (a) the false positive rate means you can never reduce the number of ‘cases’ to zero, so restrictions will never be lifted (see Clare Craig on this); (b) it means quarantining people entering the country in perpetuity; (c) it assumes a vaccine will be be both 100% effective and available soon, neither of which is likely.

However, it looks as though this is now the official policy of the United Kingdom. Yesterday, a joint statement on coronavirus was issued by the UK Government, the Northern Ireland Executive, the Scottish Government, and the Welsh Government that said:

Following our meeting at COBR this week, we therefore reaffirm our shared commitment to suppressing the virus to the lowest possible level and keeping it there, while we strive to return life to as normal as possible for as many people as possible. We agree that our policy decisions should be consistent with this objective.

The lowest possible level and keeping it there.

Sounds like a ‘zero-Covid’ strategy to me.

God help us. (H/t Alistair Haimes.)

UsForThem: The Birth of a Movement

We’re publishing an original piece by Molly Kingsley today. Molly is one of the three founders of UsForThem, a grass roots, parent-run organisation that campaigns for schools to re-open in full and without any intrusive social distancing arrangements, and we asked her to write something for us about why she decided to start a campaigning organisation. Turns out, Molly was red-pilled when she saw the above picture. It horrified her at a deep, visceral level and she felt she had to do something – anything – to prevent this becoming the “new normal” for our children.

One Tuesday morning while nonchalantly slurping my coffee and scrolling through social media, that photo popped into my feed and with it an instinctively visceral reaction that propelled me to action. I looked at it. Then stared a while. Then thought – you’ll have to excuse the profanity but there really is no other way to put it:

“WHAT THE F*CK?!”

Because anyone with an ounce of humanity will know that this is no way to treat a child.

The harms of lockdown and social isolation on children are now, sadly, much better understood, having been written about by a growing number of increasingly alarmed child welfare experts. But you don’t need a psychology doctorate to understand that something that restricts young children’s play in such an abrupt and blunt manner is not likely to be positive for educational and social development – you just need to be a parent. And as parent, once you get an idea in your head that something is harming your child, it becomes hard to let it go. I realised it was not only my right, but my duty, to say, “No.”

UsForThem has probably been the most effective of the anti-lockdown campaigning organisations – an inspiration to us all. This piece is well worth reading in full.

Nic Sturge-on’s Student Hostages

Guido’s brilliant graphic

Alan Cochrane in the Telegraph delivers a blistering attack on the First Minister’s callous sacrifice of Scotland’s students in apparent pursuit of one-upmanship and poll ratings.

This is an absolute disgrace: a thousand new students have been imprisoned across Scotland – victims of Nicola Sturgeon’s preoccupation with looking good and fighting propaganda battles with London rather than taking the measures that would really beat Covid.

And now, incredibly, all of Scotland’s students have been hit with a brutal list of restrictions including a ‘stay away from pubs’ order.

The locked-down teenagers, just starting their varsity careers, are not so much prisoners as hostages – held captive until there’s an improvement in the official statistics about which Ms Sturgeon has thus far been only too pleased to boast.

No longer; Scotland’s figures are at least as bad as England’s means she has had to come up with ever-more draconian restrictions.

But the punitive rules being inflicted on all these kids puts everything else in the shade. Students have been told that they can’t do much more than stare at the four blank walls of their tiny flats, with security guards patrolling their halls of residence, they can’t mix with their fellow freshers, and can’t go home or even meet Mum and Dad.

Worse, any infraction of the draconian rules will be breaking the law. Guido summarises the restrictions.

– No parties and no socialising outside households and their accommodation.
– Increased staff presence in student accommodation
– Further engagement with private providers of student accommodation, especially those with significant numbers
– Intensified liaising with Police Scotland to ensure vigilance
– A strict ‘Yellow Card/Red Card’ approach to breaches of student discipline

The raw deal students are getting is unbelievable, told to go to campus they are mostly doing lectures via video conference, not allowed to socialise and being told they can’t go home at Christmas (there will be tears) and paying full fees. Guido for once thinks complaining students may have a point. It’s been pointed out that university staff are still allowed to move freely in and between halls to check compliance, then go to the pub, then go home to their family.

Stop Press: A student at Glasgow University, Harry Butcher, has written in spiked about how his university feels like a prison, while a fresher at Dundee University, Euan Lee, tells his story, “I got Covid and now 500 people in my university accommodation have to self-isolate“, in the Telegraph.

Covid Avoids Swimming Pools

Perhaps scientists can learn to harness the protective power of pools

A reader has got in touch to tell us about the ridiculous rules she now faces when taking her toddler swimming.

What has really sent me over the edge was receiving a text message this morning saying: “Hi, it’s Water Babies. Following the recent tightening of COVID-19 rules, Wyvern are now asking that all adults wear a face covering when coming to the pool, unless you have an exemption. Please remove it just before you get in the pool and replace it when you get out again. Thank you for your help in keeping us all safe.”

What a clever virus this is it can tell the time, it can tell if you are in a party of more than five other people, it can tell whether you are eating or drinking and now, I am told, it can tell whether you are just in or just out of a swimming pool. I am now considering cancelling my son’s swimming lessons.

Later came an update.

I received a reply from Water Babies Dorset and Salisbury:

“Hi, it is each venue’s own decision but due to latest government restrictions it just so happens that is a requirement at all our venues. Some decided before now, and some more recently like Wyvern. Water Babies x”

I have had a very quick scan on Google and can’t find the “requirement” stating that face masks have to be worn immediately before and after swimming! So I replied “Many thanks for your reply, could I trouble you to send me the link which references this requirement?”

I am waiting for a response.

Winter is Coming

Jemima Lewis in the Telegraph , in a piece entitled “Far too many of us have no idea just how bad this is going to get“, delivers some brutal home truths to anyone still in denial about what is about to happen as the long winter of ongoing Covid restrictions starts to bite.

Even now, as Britain stares into the economic abyss, a stubborn myopia persists. When I tell friends what is happening in the hospitality industry right now – the high street names that are preparing to go into administration; the hundreds of thousands of jobs that are about to be lost – they go pale and back away nervously, as if from a madwoman. “The most important thing is to save lives,” they insist. The lives that will be lost, or ruined, through unemployment, poverty, depression, empty public coffers, crime – perhaps even civil unrest – seem to rest bizarrely weightless on the scale.

It is, in any case, a fait accompli. Nothing in Rishi Sunak’s emergency budget can save the day for those businesses that depend on high footfall. City centres are (or were) the coral reefs of the British economy: small but vibrant landscapes supporting a huge array of different businesses, from locksmiths to restaurants. Lockdown was devastating enough; six months of working from home will kill off the reef for good.

The hospitality industry is right at the front of the unemployment tidal wave. From this unhappy vantage point it is easy to see the boarded-up future from which so many – including some in Government – are still averting their eyes. Perhaps the economy can only be properly understood through experience. If so, this is going to be an agonising lesson.

Worth reading in full.

COVID-19 Assembly Update – Get Involved

The good people running the excellent COVID-19 Assembly initiative have been in touch about their new survey that they want readers of Lockdown Sceptics to help with.

The aim of the COVID-19 Assembly is to allow people to discuss and share the information around COVID-19 and the measures in place to “control” it. We want to create content and tools for volunteers to take to non-sceptics and show them why they shouldn’t worry. The SAGE minutes showed just how deliberate the mainstream media fear-mongering was. 

Unfortunately, it worked really well. If polls are to be believed about 85% of people are genuinely scared. To unpick this programming, we are using the same weapons. We have a survey designed by the former lead psychologist of Cambridge Analytica. The results of this survey will inform the production of our content. It will help us understand exactly which points to focus on in order to change opinions.

This is a very complex problem and we need to work together to solve it. We can’t expect non-sceptics to complete the survey without some sort of incentive. We need you, readers of Lockdown Sceptics, to talk to non-sceptics you know (family, friends, colleagues, neighbours, etc) and ask them to complete the survey as a favour to you or buy them a drink or a coffee!

If you think they’ll do it by themselves then sending a link may do. But if necessary, you could meet them and open the survey on your own phone and ask them the questions. Ask them in the pub, over the phone, at work, over the garden wall, on the street, wherever.

This is extremely important! We need at least 400 non-sceptical people to complete the survey to have a representative sample. Please do your best to target five people each and try to get everyone to share it on social media. The more we get the more we will learn about how to end this nonsense. 

Thanks and good luck!

This is an important and high quality initiative so let’s all get involved and help them reach their 400 target and much more. Find the survey here.

SNP Climbdown On Hate Crime Bill – But Is It Enough?

Scottish justice secretary Humza Yousaf doesn’t appear to grasp that “hate speech” is inimical to free speech

The Times on Thursday devoted an editorial to the small victory north of the border for free speech advocates in getting the SNP’s appalling hate crime bill watered down to make it slightly less appalling.

For months the Scottish justice secretary has defended his hate crime bill against criticism that it is a dangerously illiberal attack on freedom of speech. He appeared undeterred by the lengthening list of critics, who included the Scottish Police Federation, the Law Society of Scotland, the National Secular Society and the Scottish Catholic Church. Concerns focused on a proposal to make “stirring up hatred” a criminal offence, as well as behaviour “likely” to stir up such hatred. Also outlawed would be the possession or communication of “inflammatory material” deemed “likely” to encourage hatred, a measure that could have had implications for bookshops and libraries. A leader column in this newspaper denounced the proposed law as an “act of folly”.

Yesterday, finally, Mr Yousaf admitted defeat and announced that amendments would be brought forward to safeguard rights that should never have been under threat in the first place. His decision is welcome insofar as it goes, although he is not yet off the hook. Critics say the ministerial climbdown, which removed the word “likely”, is a rung or two short of satisfactory.

The Free Speech Union submitted evidence in July to the Scottish Parliament’s Justice Committee opposing the bill.

This definition of “hate crime” is far too broad and will enable groups claiming to speak for people in these protected categories to lobby the authorities to prosecute anyone who challenges their ideology on the grounds that doing so is likely to stir up hatred. Under this new law, not only will those who challenge identitarian dogma be vulnerable to prosecution, but anyone who possesses “inflammatory material” will be too, as will theatre producers who put on plays expressing these forbidden ideas and the actors who perform in them. If the Bill passes, Scotland will become the most aggressive regulator of speech in the United Kingdom and one of the most belligerent in Europe. And it could easily become the basis of a similar law in England and Wales.

The climbdown is a start, but not enough to keep speech free and protected from the constant threat of litigation from the woke and perpetually offended.

If you care about free speech, please join the Free Speech Union.

Round-Up

Love in the Time of Covid

We have created some Lockdown Sceptics Forums, including a dating forum called “Love in a Covid Climate” that has attracted a bit of attention. We have a team of moderators in place to remove spam and deal with the trolls, but sometimes it takes a little while so please bear with us. You have to register to use the Forums, but that should just be a one-time thing. Any problems, email the Lockdown Sceptics webmaster Ian Rons here.

UPDATE: Some of you have asked how to link to particular stories on Lockdown Sceptics. The answer used to be to first click on “Latest News”, then click on the links that came up beside the headline of each story. But we’ve changed that so the link now comes up beside the headline whether you’ve clicked on “Latest News” or you’re just on the Lockdown Sceptics home page. Please do share the stories with your friends and on social media.

Woke Gobbledegook

We’ve decided to create a permanent slot down here for woke gobbledegook. Today we feature a protest statement from students and faculty at Boston University. It’s a cracker if anyone is playing woke bingo this’ll get you a full house.

Institutionalized White Supremacy Culture at BU

BU’s residential reopening policies for Fall 2020 create material damage and risk to Black, Brown, and Indigenous communities, as well as those most economically marginalized regardless of race. As BU School of Public Health Professor Michael Siegel has recently explained, the “Learn from Anywhere” model negatively impacts disadvantaged and minority students under the guise of choice. By supporting and even encouraging a dense campus and the return of tens of thousands of inter-state and international students, BU also is increasing the health risk not only to its own campus community but also to the Greater Boston area. Pre-existing economic disparities – the result of systemic racism and discrimination – mean that COVID-19 has a disproportionate impact on Black and Latinx communities. Any action which increases the risk of transmission of COVID-19  thus disproportionately affects the health of those communities.

These racially and economically disparate outcomes are not coincidental. They are the natural result of an institutionalized culture of white supremacy at BU which is designed to perpetuate existing inequality. This culture of white supremacy was born from the hierarchical power dynamic between masters and slaves and the legacies of settler colonialism. It is fundamentally threatened by the sharing of power. It maintains its authority by restricting access to knowledge. It disarms critics by making superficial change, but rejects the need for systemic transformation or the redirection of resources. It demands cooperation, obedience, and sacrifice in times of scarcity, while in times of plenty enriching only those at the top. An organization which operates in this way cannot advance the cause of human equality and social justice – whatever it intends.

 In what follows, we draw from the work of many grassroots activists on anti-racism – particularly Kenneth Jones and Tema Okun, who identified the characteristics of white supremacy culture – to explain how BU’s white supremacy culture brought us to this point. The characteristics of white supremacy culture include but are not limited to paternalism, either/or thinking, power hoarding, a scarcity worldview, a fear of open conflict and tendency toward secrecy in operations, a preference for quantity (or speed) over quality, and a ‘progress is bigger and more’ attitude.

This list is not exhaustive, but we offer it in the spirit of supporting one of the five major pillars of BU’s new Strategic Plan for 2030 – “to strengthen diversity, equity, and inclusion.” The work of becoming a fully anti-racist and anti-oppressive institution requires a clear and specific analysis of and accountability for institutionalized white supremacy culture to be successful. We call on BU to begin its anti-racist work on our own campus. We cannot hope to transform the world if we cannot transform our own institution.

Read the whole ludicrous statement here.

Stop Press: Quillette has published an amusing article about Jessica Krug, the ultra-woke, “African-American” academic superstar who turned out to be a white Jewish woman.

“Mask Exempt” Lanyards

We’ve created a one-stop shop down here for people who want to buy (or make) a “Mask Exempt” lanyard/card. You can print out and laminate a fairly standard one for free here and it has the advantage of not explicitly claiming you have a disability. But if you have no qualms about that (or you are disabled), you can buy a lanyard from Amazon saying you do have a disability/medical exemption here (takes a while to arrive). The Government has instructions on how to download an official “Mask Exempt” notice to put on your phone here. You can get a “Hidden Disability” tag from ebay here and an “exempt” card with lanyard for just £1.99 from Etsy here. And, finally, if you feel obliged to wear a mask but want to signal your disapproval of having to do so, you can get a “sexy world” mask with the Swedish flag on it here.

Don’t forget to sign the petition on the UK Government’s petitions website calling for an end to mandatory face nappies in shops here.

A reader has started a website that contains some useful guidance about how you can claim legal exemption.

And here’s a round-up of the scientific evidence on the effectiveness of mask (threadbare at best).

Stop Press: A woman was tasered and arrested by police in Ohio on Wednesday after she refused to leave an eighth grade football game for not wearing a mask. The Hill has the story.

Police in Logan, Ohio, who identified the woman as Alecia Kitts, said the officer told Kitts she would be asked to leave because she was not wearing a mask, in violation of school policy. After Kitts refused to leave the stadium, the officer warned she would be cited for trespassing. She was tased after she resisted arrest. …

Police said in a statement that when Smith informed Kitts she needed to wear a mask, she responded she had asthma and would not put it on.

“Officer Smith advised the female several times that she needed to put her mask on, and that if she did not, she would be asked to leave and would have to wait outside the stadium,” the statement reads. “The female continually refused his request and Officer Smith advised her that if she refused to leave, she would be cited for trespassing and escorted off the property.” …

“It is important to note, the female was not arrested for failing to wear a mask, she was asked to leave the premises for continually violating school policy,” the police department said. “Once she refused to leave the premises, she was advised she was under arrest for criminal trespassing, she resisted the arrest, which led to the use of force.”

Watch the video here.

Samaritans

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch. Samaritans is available round the clock, every single day of the year, providing a safe place for anyone struggling to cope, whoever they are, however they feel, whatever life has done to them.

Shameless Begging Bit

Thanks as always to those of you who made a donation in the past 24 hours to pay for the upkeep of this site. Doing these daily updates is hard work (although we have help from lots of people, mainly in the form of readers sending us stories and links). If you feel like donating, please click here. And if you want to flag up any stories or links we should include in future updates, email us here.

And Finally…

A poster made by the son of a Lockdown Sceptics reader

Subscribe
Notify of

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

1.6K Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ceriain
5 years ago

First! Whooo.

Re. the first item above:

“The documents stressed that had nothing been done to stop the spread of

the virus in March, 400,000 people could have died of Covid.”

“Could have”

“But they acknowledged the restrictions had significant unintended consequences.”

But they still continue to do it. Jeez!

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

The Mail report also says 1.4 million could have died if the NHS had been overwhelmed.
Earlier this week ferguson said, on BBC R4 Today Programme, that would cause 50 or 70,000 additional deaths not a million.

Rowan
Rowan
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

I suppose someone has to listen the BBC, if only to tells others that it is as bad as ever.

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

1.4 million seems utterly ridiculous.. That stat stands at any point in time. If the NHS is overwhelmed by any unforseen crisis they’d be seeing those kinds of levels of collateral damage. Never mind we are dealing with something wich we quickly realised was manageable albeit with stretched staff in some areas.

They almost seem to be patting themselves on the back with a job well done. It’s warped.

Covid 1984 Information Centre
Covid 1984 Information Centre
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Were it not for the lockdown 80 million people would have died in the UK

Andrew Fish
Andrew Fish
5 years ago

Twice.

Two-Six
Two-Six
5 years ago

80 million!!! WOW that’s more than 43% of the population!!

Rowan
Rowan
5 years ago
Reply to  Two-Six

Then that shows just how lucky we’ve been, as it could have been so much worse.

Covid 1984 Information Centre
Covid 1984 Information Centre
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Giuseppe Conte all’Onu: la pandemia è opportunità per un nuovo inizio – See more at: http://www.rainews.it/

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to the UN: the pandemic is an opportunity for a new beginning

He’s the one who started all this in Italy. This has been no opportunity for the Italian people.
**************************************
The Mail said the story was exclusive but Toby nicked it.

EXCLUSIVE: Lockdown ‘may kill 75,000’ – that’s the OFFICIAL projection of the deadly toll of Covid restrictions including missed cancer diagnoses, cancelled operations and health impacts of a recession. The virus death toll?

42,000 (Deaths for any reason 28 day after a positive test – Source UK Government)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774141/Coronavirus-UK-Lockdown-kill-75-000-thats-OFFICIAL-projection.html
*****************

Richard Pinch
5 years ago

The Mail said the story was exclusive but Toby nicked it.

So “exclusive” that it was posted on the Government website and I linked to it in a comment on this site yesterday.

Andrew Fish
Andrew Fish
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Putting it on the Government website is the equivalent of putting it on display in a locked filing cabinet in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying beware of the leopard.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Fish

Lights gone? So had the stairs.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

… and this site?

Annie
Annie
5 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Fish

Irresistible!

Rowan
Rowan
5 years ago

Many of the 42000 deaths never had a positive test and were simply based on opinion. The tests in any case are unfit for use as a diagnostic tool.

Steve Hayes
5 years ago
Reply to  Rowan

“opinion” ought to read: suspicion.

Michael May
Michael May
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

So, they’re still saying that if nothing had been done to supress the virus, 400,000 could have died, and 1.4 million of the NHS had been overrun. Given the lockdown-enthusiats’ claims that it was the various NPIs that prevented infections and cases and the NHS being overrun, and that we know that the point of suppression is not to reduce the overall number of deaths, but to spread them out over a longer term so that the health services are not overloaded, this is tantamount to saying that we still expect another 1.36 million deaths from CoVID-19.

Given how quiet the virus is becoming, we’d better get a move on. <koff>

Rowan
Rowan
5 years ago
Reply to  Michael May

The virus may be keeping a low profile, but of course Boris isn’t. He need to go.

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  Michael May

Excellent point. Without a virus with efficency the likes we have never seen before, that logic seems solid to me.

You see this all the time. Massaging the numbers in one area leads to absolutely nonsensical logic when the same approach is placed in a wider context. It’s a sign of deception at play.

Andrew Fish
Andrew Fish
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Perhaps controversial, but as a bird lover I’m with you on the cats.

NickR
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Just to illustrate the total bollix of this:

  1. Original estimate for deaths used an IFR (infection fatality rate) of 1%. That’s where this 400,000 comes from & where Ferguson’s 500,000 comes from.
  2. Whitty’s worst case scenario last week had 200 deaths from 50,000 infections, an IFR of 0.4%, so 400,000 would have been 160,000.
  3. Many epidemiologists are suggesting 0.25%, in which case 400,000 would have been 100,000.
Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  NickR

IFR of 0.8-1% is what was reported from Manaus and Guayauil, on the basis of infections in the 20-30% range. Seroprevalence data recently reported from Manaus suggests total infections of 66%, if so IFR would have been lower, say 0.25% or so. New York City has population 0.25% so their IFR much be at least that. If NYC had 25% infection, that would still be IFR 1%.

There are two reasons why CFR should come down. One is that we are getting better at treating patients (eg dexamethasone) and another is, we hope, relative success at shielding the elderly and vulnerable.

Kevin 2
Kevin 2
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

It is doubtful whether dexamethasone or any similar corticosteroid has any net mortality benefit. And as an immuno-suppressant, it should never be used in simple first-stage illness. It may have some clinical utility in late stage systemic inflammatory illness. But the manifestation of such acute illness (Cytokine storm, ARD) is now exceedingly rare. In the recovery trial it was only patients receiving assisted ventilation that derived any mortality benefit. Hospitalised patients who did not receive assisted ventilation actually did worse. From the literature:- Acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome are partly caused by host immune responses. Corticosteroids suppress lung inflammation but also inhibit immune responses and pathogen clearance. In SARS-CoV infection, as with influenza, systemic inflammation is associated with adverse outcomes. In SARS, inflammation persists after viral clearance. Pulmonary histology in both SARS and MERS infections reveals inflammation and diffuse alveolar damage, with one report suggesting haemophagocytosis. Theoretically, corticosteroid treatment could have a role to suppress lung inflammation. In a retrospective observational study reporting on 309 adults who were critically ill with MERS, almost half of patients (151 [49%]) were given corticosteroids (median hydrocortisone equivalent dose [ie, methylprednisolone 1:5, dexamethasone 1:25, prednisolone 1:4] of 300 mg/day). Patients who… Read more »

swedenborg
swedenborg
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

The figures from Manaus is interesting. A rather hight IFR 0,25% with 65 % infection rate. Why? If you go to Nigeria, Kenya, Pakistan and India you have pockets of very high infection rate but very low fatality rate. The same thing in Japan. There is a striking high death rate in South America but mainly in countries with a heavy indian population like Amazonas, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia,and  Mexico. If you go to Uruguay and Argentina with much less Indian population much lower death rate. Different races have different susceptibility to infection. This is nothing new in mankind with syphilis and smallpox and TB with different susceptibility for severe infection. Why should C-19 be different even if it is not PC to speak about it?

Cheezilla
Cheezilla
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Most of us have either had it, have herd immunity and/or functioning T-cells.

Thos whose immune systems are compromised are the only ones we need to shield. The rest should be allowed to get on with their lives.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Cheezilla

Herd immunity isn’t a thing that people have, at least not as individuals. It’s a property of the population as a whole, expressing the fact that sufficiently many people are immune, for whatever reason, that the virus is unable to spread with the usual pattern of personal interaction. Whether “most of us” have personal immunity via either antibodies or T-cells is not yet clear.

guy153
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

It’s a total disgrace for them to justify killing 75,000 actual people with saving 400,000 (or 1.4 million, or 1.4 trillion, it doesn’t matter) imaginary people.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  guy153

No, they’re real people, just alive rather than dead. But this is the sort of calculation that has to be done. It’s not easy.

ChrisDinBristol
ChrisDinBristol
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

No, they are real people with imaginary outcomes.

mj
mj
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

over 1500 people killed each year in DIY accidents … Shut down B&Q

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  mj

Been saying it for years. It’s a cover up. Boris has shares in homebase

Rowan
Rowan
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Continuing to seek advice from “experts” who have been consistently wrong tells us that this is about far more than incompetence. These “experts” are giving the government the advice it needs and wants for it to further its real agenda. Covid-19 is simply a vehicle for the drastic changes the government is obligated to bring about. None of this can possibly end well.

OKUK
OKUK
5 years ago
Reply to  Ceriain

Has anyone noticed we seem to have an epidemic of epidemiologists. Every university in the land seems to have at least three.

Cecil B
Cecil B
5 years ago

Second?

Cecil B
Cecil B
5 years ago

When I was a young person I could walk down a street or visit the next town and there would be no record that I had ever been there

The state assumed I was law abiding and I was free to do as I wished

That was freedom

Now the state assumes I am a criminal

Cctv in most streets, railway stations, pubs, shops, even passing cyclists and cars are filming me

People have been mugged into buying a £500 telescreen that they willingly carry around with them so the state can track their every movement

Cars that report back to the manufacturer if I open the boot or wind the window down

The state says i cannot be in the company of my children, grand children, attend a funeral or a wedding, or celebrate Christmas

The state locks up our mother’s and father’s in death camps in conditions that would be a breach of the Geneva convention if they were captured combatants

Time to rip this whole stinking edifice down or die attempting it

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Cecil B

It’s the reason I’m not online at home and leave my phone switched off in the car overnight.
I still use my old phone for texts and calls but even that goes off when I turn in.
I used to play a little game by always leaving the city on a major road where i know there is a number recognition camera but return on a minor one where there isn’t.

Annie
Annie
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Some years ago, my car was stolen off the drive.
A sympathetic policeman called round and showed me that my every move the previous day, when I was driving the car, could be tracked, but nothing at all could be traced after the car had been stolen.
We need to talk to thieves.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Annie

They probably have some trick similar to putting older stolen radios in mums freezer compartment which disabled the disabler mechanism.

PastImperfect
5 years ago
Reply to  Cecil B

Trafalgar Square Noon Today.

Kath Andrews
Kath Andrews
5 years ago
Reply to  PastImperfect

On my way now.

William
William
5 years ago
Reply to  Kath Andrews

Me too.

Nick Rose
5 years ago

How can the Government still believe these catastrophic predictions from discredited models when the experience of countries like Sweden, Tanzania and Belarus show the truth about what happens under minimal restrictions? Is it a case of refusing to believe the evidence of one’s own eyes because it is too painful? Certainly, there is some serious corporate groupthink going on.

When I first heard the figure of a half million deaths being bandied about, I knew I was being bulshitted. Just looking around at other countries told me this was an out and out lie.

When Johnson spoke to the country in early May, claiming that over “four hundred thousand lives have been saved”, I heard the propaganda tactics of a regime that had got it seriously wrong and didn’t want to admit it, now doubling down.

Until Johnson goes, this nonsense will not end, unless we overthrow it. The best way of doing that IS TO IGNORE IT!

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

I missed hearing johnson making that claim, one of the benefits of not having a telly.

Nick Rose
5 years ago

Right, got a train to catch. See you all Sunday.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

Have a nice trip.

Cecil B
Cecil B
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

Have a good one

Hoppy Uniatz
Hoppy Uniatz
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

I’ll look out for you outside the National Gallery!

Kath Andrews
Kath Andrews
5 years ago
Reply to  Hoppy Uniatz

Maybe see you there, long black coat, long black hair and puffy eyes caused by lack of sleep, too much gin and a WhatsApp argument late last night with someone very dear to me but who remains brainwashed 😔

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

All the best!!!

Sue
Sue
5 years ago
Reply to  Nick Rose

Have s great day and don’t get ‘nicked’!! 🙂 I hope there’s a great turnout and peaceful. Will look forward to your report

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago

Picking up on comments on the previous post, I’ve noticed signs of a potentially harsh winter: the local rowan trees ,pyracantha and berberis bushes are loaded with berries, and the rugosa rose hedges are laden with bright hips.

Secondly, the barnacle geese have started their winter migration to the Solway Firth; I’ve seen and heard 3-4 flights in the past few days.

They fly directly over my area twice each year and I love watching and listening as the skeins pass over on their way south and then north with the return of spring.

I don’t recall witnessing such an early migration in previous years, although I’m strictly an amateur observer.

These observations confirm the concerns which I raised yesterday: a harsh winter coming on top of this utterly senseless Covid madness will force thousands of those who are already struggling into fuel poverty, already a serious problem in the UK.

So, I’ll say again: have any of the lunatics in charge given serious thought to this?

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

More and more people dependant on the State, the worse it gets the better they’ll like it.
I imagine it must be quite satisfying for a down at heel DWP worker having a well educated, formerly gainfully employed person at their mercy. I’m told they enjoy it more than long term skanks who know how to play the system.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

I think you’re right, and this happened to me many years ago.

(My area is also full of skanks who know how to play the system, and they’re all thriving!)

However, fuel poverty will have to be addressed eventually, if the lunacy persists, unless, of course, they’ll rely on hypothermia to finish us all off!

Refuseniks like us top of the list for suspension of gas and electricity supplies: it could happen….

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Stay clear of the smart meter.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

I won’t have one! I’ve resisted all the sales ploys.

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Aye, but many employed for a long time and nearer retirement will have ,”too much” savings.
This will carry through into resentment against system, which a good party should be able to exploit.
Permanent state wrecks your life, makes you unemployed then you can’t get any dole as you’ve saved too much while you also paid eyewatering taxes over 30 years.
The state has withdrawn healthcare and proper education unless you are one of the select state employees.
The smug Karens and Maskholes will wake up on 31st Oct as a lot of companies will bite the bullet then.

Two-Six
Two-Six
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

People like this will be more likely to have sucessfull job seeking outcomes, well they used to anyway.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

I mentioned something similar here a few months ago – no-one will want to queue or eat al fresco in the cold and woe betide any shop staff or museum assistant who force people out into the street in the cold or pouring rain because they’ve exceeded their “quota” of people inside their premises, there could be verbal and physical violence.

Winter is indeed coming, literally and figuratively. A really cold one coupled with high unemployment and bankruptcy rates is a recipe for disaster.

Bet the idiots in charge and their lockdownista collaborators have not cottoned on to this.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I’m sure you’re right, Bart. Most of them will have no idea of the misery which fuel poverty can inflict, and this will increasingly hit those who are already bearing the brunt of all this in unemployment, reduced hours and wages and the stresses and strains deriving from the various batty diktats.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Agree. More and more companies are already making people redundant or have started the process and furlough hasn’t even ended yet.

That is what angered me about Sunak’s budget, he didn’t seem to address the soaring unemployment and bankruptcy figures.

And the sheep who are still asleep, perhaps winter will wake them up and they will realise that all the masks and social distancing won’t save them from the coming stagnation and misery.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

As you and I have agreed before, the most avid lockdown enthusiasts-at least in my experience-are the comparatively affluent,who can literally afford to feed the fear.

I suspect that the coming winter might exceed the damage done by the years of austerity measures,which clobbered those already at the bottom of the heap.

BTW, I’m not by any means a socialist-I think Corbyn would have been even worse than this lot-but the gulf is steadily growing between the haves and the have nots.

Any government worth its salt,or even cynically aware of the benefits of self interest, will have to make some restitution for all this damage.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Exactly. And even the comparatively affluent will be damaged. Not now but by policies that the government will enact to try to contain the damage they have created. Tax raids and ghost town city centres will come to haunt them.

Many people have already been thrown in the scrapheap and more will be as the reality starts to bite.

Governments should realise that the longer they carry on with this, the more people will seek various means to end this farce.

Now More Than Ever
Now More Than Ever
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Totally right, Wendy. It’s a middle-class disease. Not Covid, but the fear of it.

Templeton
Templeton
5 years ago

This. Totally.

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

The enthusiasts are 99% on secure pensions or secure state incomes paid from taxation.
NHS, quango and council employees, all on 100% wages for 7 months for doing next to no work.

Alan P
Alan P
5 years ago
Reply to  Nessimmersion

I’m in one of those categories, and believe me when I say I have been against all of this madness since early March. So don’t tar everyone with the zealot brush!

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  Alan P

No doubt, but that doesn’t defeat my observation.
I’m glad to know there are some rational adults in the public sector that understand you need a functioning economy to afford the nice things in life like education, health and old age pensions.

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  Nessimmersion

We should offer retirement anyone over 60 who is scared to work and just keep people in employment that actually want to get out and do something useful.

This idea that people should just shelter until it blows over is unbelievable offensive

Nessimmersion
5 years ago

We can’t afford to, state pension age was increased for a reason.
We get closer to affording it if we cancel HS2, the climate change act, 50% of social work activities etc.

Harry hopkins
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

If you really think that about Jeremy Corbyn you have fallen into the trap of believing precisely what the mainstream media wanted you to believe. Now that you KNOW that the state controlled media has its own agenda perhaps it might, just might, give you food for thought as to whether or not he was a Marxist, Russian spy, intent on doing away with capitalism, terrorist sympathiser, secret IRA member or any of the other bollocks you were indoctrinated with. The truth, if you study the man and his life–in the same way as Lockdown sceptics do their own research—is that he was a life long democratic socialist (moral capitalist) in the same vein as most European politicians are today and ALL politicians of post war Britain were. His ideas for government would have transformed this country forthe vast majority. But the mainstream media and its billionaire owners using the fully paid up coterie of self interested MPs (and yes, including those dedicated supporters of that mass murderer Blair who now advocates Covid testing every week!) destroyed the man. To suggest that Corbyn could have been worse than Johnson is so ridiculous as to not be worthy of comment. Piers… Read more »

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

I can assure you that I most definitely have not been indoctrinated . I also thought that Teflon Man Blair, the Great Trickster figure was awful ,especially when he sanctioned the invasion of Iraq: I opposed it and so did everyone else whom I knew at the time, regardless of political persuasion.

My thoughts about Jeremy Corbyn are neither ridiculous nor have I fallen into a trap; I just happen to have reached differing conclusions to yours.

And by the way, I also admire Piers Corbyn’s support for the anti-lockdown movement and I thought his arrest was a shameful disgrace.

Let’s discuss without casting aspersions at one another.

Sylvie
Sylvie
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Sorry but it’s a simple fact: there are more people commenting here who’ve been
captured by right wing media portrayals of nasty Marxist Guardanistas waiting to, I don’t know, steal all their money and give it to the poor, than lefties casting aspersions. BTW, you’re commenting on a post by HH, not RickH.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Sylvie

I’ve replied to HH.

Bruno
Bruno
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

And edited out your disparaging reference to RickH.

Harry hopkins
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Sorry if I caused you any offence. But it annoys me intensely, especially when we’re in the deep sh*t that we currently are, when people say stuff like ‘it would have been worse under Corbyn’.
In my opinion (based on my detailed research and knowledge of the man) the UK would not now be in this situation. If Corbyn was anything, he was most definitely NOT a lacky to the global elite.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

No offence taken Harry; I just wanted to make my point.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

My bad, but initially I believed Piers Corbyn was a nutcase, my thoughts have done a complete turnabout and I now believe him to be an honest and well-meaning man. Again the CONservative propaganda machine has discredited so many good people who they consider a threat to their existence. I see them now! My eyes are wide open!

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Harry hopkins

Whatever one thought of Corbyn I do believe he was a man of principle, something the CONservative government lacks. We live in the most absurd of times now where black is white and good is bad. I now hate the Conservative Party with all my being for allowing this to happen. They were the party of order and responsibility, patriotic and valued hard work. Instead these miserable curs have sold us out in the most despicable way.

Caroline Watson
Caroline Watson
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Lockdowns protect the salaried, public sector middle class and the comfortably retired and throw the working class and the young under the bus.

Caroline Watson
Caroline Watson
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

In Northumberland, we are used to locking down for the winter. The roads are often impassible and it’s bloody freezing. Sometimes there is literally just too much snow. Summer is when we recharge our batteries, eat out, go to the coast, have a holiday abroad. This year we haven’t been allowed to. Days when it barely gets light and the wind is howling will soon be upon us. The mental health impacts will be astronomical.
And our council officers requested a local lockdown for entirely political reasons.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago

And I can imagine it will be far worse this time around.

Mike
Mike
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Grand solar minimum kicking in…Nature always knows before we do. Amazing how the timings align…Economic destruction, looming poverty, food shortages and then a potentially nasty winter season leading into 2021. Theres going to be a lot of people crying out for government assistance over the next year or so.
We’ll either get a very compliant population (as their money/food/heating depends on it – eg Chinas system) or massive social unrest.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike

I think it will be the latter. The government won’t be unable to cope with the soaring unemployment and bankruptcy figures. Of course there will still be those going “I’m alright Jack” or “People before profit” but they won’t be able to escape the reality of tax raids on their pensions and savings. Not to mention their pensions becoming worthless as real estate tumbles.

When people have nothing to lose that’s when the fight back will start.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

The I’m all right Jack group will of course be the public sector who has so far escaped any backlash to the Lockdown.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Bella Donna

Or those who have retired on generous final salary pension schemes and/or sitting on huge savings.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Agreed. What an unholy mess this is, and all done in the name of what exactly? Stay safe? Stop the spread?Protect the NHS? Don’t kill granny? Blatant emotional manipulation of a gullible, compliant and panic stricken populace, leading to? I dread to think. The increasing use of automation, plus continuing mass migration, both illegal-seemingly sanctioned by Boris and Priti-and legal, will create a perfect storm: a growing pool of people with no work, no money and no prospects. Recently I’ve been studying the Russian Revolution and the impoverishment,famine,feudalism and sudden eruption of popular unrest which led to the rise of the Bolsheviks and then the years of Soviet communism. Compounded by the naive autocrat Nicholas 2nd, who wouldn’t take advice and the ill fated Duma, which lost support for its short lived experiment in democracy. I hadn’t realised quite how ruthless and cunning Lenin was ,nor that the Bolsheviks were funded in no small part by the Kaiser’s Germany. Conditions differ substantially here, but as you all have rightly said on this thread, it won’t take much for this to overtake the Poll Tax protests and the Brixton Riots in terms of massive unrest. There are plenty of trouble makers… Read more »

Sue
Sue
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Here cometh the winter of discontent! The ‘elites’ are so naive, smug and patronising and seemingly have tunnel vision on this.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

There’s another thing you need to have a Russian style revolution, an overly educated population for the jobs available.
And this is the first year that 50% of school leavers went to university.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Good point and now that they’re all under house arrest and lumbered with punitive fees, they’ll be first onto the barricades I should think.

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

More than 4, Ive seen about 20 skeins, heading to Montrose basin.
Normally seen around “tattie” holidays, so up north must be a bit colder earlier.
Also very heavy crops of brambles this year?

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Nessimmersion

That’s interesting; so they’re definitely on the move earlier this year. I’m sure from my amateurish observations that seasonal migration,as well as being a wondrous phenomenon for us humans to watch,must also have an innate connection to forthcoming temperature and pressure changes and anomalies which we can only guess at.

Another feature which fascinates me is that I’ve often heard the geese chattering as they fly over at night. Since they don’t have night vision, but know exactly where they’re going, I guess they must be using the stars or the earth’s magnetic
field to navigate.

So much we don’t know and I bet they could teach us a thing or two!

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Completely OT, but there was a programme a while back where GPS trackers were put on Swans migrating from Iceland to Scotland for the winter.
They went up to about 12000 ft at one point !!!!!!

Two-Six
Two-Six
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Don’t worry there will be plenty of empty offices and shops that can be converted into night shelters. Communities will extend their kindness to everybody, no one will be left behind or left out in the cold.

Siimo
Siimo
5 years ago
Reply to  Two-Six

Not sure if you were being ironic there, but I’ve got to say that one of the few things that has actually given me some faith in people’s ability not to be utter ****s to each other has been the groups who got together to organise shopping and food banks and telephone befriending. Full disclosure: I’ve been volunteering for them and it’s been incredibly eye opening to understand what real poverty looks like and why lockdown is making it worse. Some of the ‘alright jacks’ would do well to come along on a delivery with me and see what life is like when you’ve been trapped in a first floor flat with a permanently disabled leg.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Siimo

I’ve volunteered at the local food bank as well, and witnessed the scale of the hardship and deprivation. I also donate whenever I visit the local Morrison’s which is doing a great deal to support both the local food banks and the animal shelter.

Many pets have been dumped and abandoned as the madness continues.

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Worked at a Food Bank in the past myself when I was unemployed. I really enjoyed it. However we delivered to all sorts, homeless shelters, care homes, community centres. Some places would almost have me crying as we hung about and chatted to a few people. The older men who lived on their own whose only solace was a free lunch in the centre and a chat was the hardest for me.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago

My unforgettable encounter was with a poor undernourished care assistant, recently bereaved,still mourning her late husband,on a zero hours contract and obliged to use public transport to reach her patients.

She was surviving-barely-on a couple of slices of toast and a cup of tea,and felt ashamed that she’d had to seek help.

I’ll never forget her.

Siimo
Siimo
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

The imagery in first four paragraphs here was beautiful, even if the point of it wasn’t so edifying a prospect. In my fantasy I’ve just booked a BS-free Xmas trip to somewhere chilly but stunning with the income I should have had this year.

2 pence
2 pence
5 years ago
karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

Mainly peaceful policing, nice.

2 pence
2 pence
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

LOL

Nsklent
Nsklent
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

When the Chinese were doing this to demonstrators in Hong Kong there was worldwide condemnation, now it seems we have adopted more than the virus from China.

ConstantBees
ConstantBees
5 years ago
Reply to  Nsklent

That’s been my thought for a while. Totalitarian state locks down public. Rather than thinking about it, almost every other country in the world imitates totalitarian state.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  ConstantBees

LOL people find it hard to believe this isn’t planned globally.

Girl down Under
Girl down Under
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

Whoa, that’s savage and I thought what was happening in Melbourne was bad. Did you notice at the end of the clip the police circled around the bloke on the ground so you couldn’t see what was going on.

2 pence
2 pence
5 years ago
Girl down Under
Girl down Under
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

Bloody hell! I remember hearing about the election, but barely saw much of the footage. That action by the police is just unbelievable, and so unnecessary.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

Good God what thugs their police are. Notice when a victim is hit they all charge in with their batons, knees and boots. They would be so brutish if the crowd had guns!

karenovirus
5 years ago

The SAGE report on excess none Covid deaths; in the Mail article they say it is from July.
Is it actually the one that was published just before, or soon into, lockdown, an update on that March-April report or a new one altogether ?

Ed. Oops😳, just read to the end, Toby explains all.

Tom Blackburn
Tom Blackburn
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus
BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Yeah it was a revised model.

2 pence
2 pence
5 years ago

Circa 1919 – A study by California State Board of Health on the measures adopted against the Spanish Flu.

https://twitter.com/_Kodos_/status/1309618262632804358

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  2 pence

Love that

karenovirus
5 years ago

Students banned from the pub by law.
How do you frame a law that makes it illegal for an entire class of people to do something that is not illegal for everyone else ?

Tom Blackburn
Tom Blackburn
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

They need to rise up

Jonathan Palmer
Jonathan Palmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Tom Blackburn

Hopefully this will change the students from woke obsessed snowflakes into rebels once again;now they have to face real oppression not imagined slights.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago

And hopefully this will wake them up to the genuine problems that people face and not the ones peddled by the Guardian and race baiters like Gopal.

Lockdown Truth
5 years ago

Hopefully!!

Steve Martindale
Steve Martindale
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Usually that sort of ban is done in a negative way by threatening to take something away e,g your student grant or your university place.

Annie
Annie
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

In an illegal, failed state you can do anything, if you’re in power.

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Rosa Krankie is determined that Belarus should be known as a haven of freedom in comparison with her desired regime.

Silke David
Silke David
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

How does the pub know you are a students? You could just be a young person.
They have no right to ask for student ID cards, unless the student is stupid enough to ask for the student special drinks offer.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Silke David

I can tell a student from a townie or even a College student from 500 yards, it’s just the way they are.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/25/the-making-of-britains-covid-catastrophe/

This is probably the best critique of the disastrous blundering mockery of a so called strategy that I’ve read to date.

So, a plea : Dr John Lee should be given the opportunity, along with Professors Gupta, Heneghan and Sikora to make the lunatics listen before it’s too late.

Let them give evidence in an open forum to those MPs who are gathering behind Sir Graham Brady.

Annie
Annie
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Dr Lee has been talking robust sense from the start.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Annie

Indeed he has, just my point, but he should have more access to potentially sensible MPs

Now More Than Ever
Now More Than Ever
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

John Lee is superb.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

hancock said that he ‘rated’ Henaghan on The Today Programme Yesterday

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

That will make Heneghan’s day I’m sure! Gold star from Head Prefect Shuttlecock!

John P
John P
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

Heneghan and Gupta have already had an audience with Johnson !

Listen to the latest episode of Planet Normal (“science v spin”)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/planet-normal/

Prof Gupta interviewed by Allison Pearson. She briefly talks about this.

Iain Duncan Smith was also interviewed by Julia Hartley-Brewer last week and is very well clued up on this. He also wants Heneghan and Gupta to be listened to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KOhgb776Fw

Annie
Annie
5 years ago

The most noble and excellent Archdeacon of Hastings, a C of E minister who actually believes in God:

https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2020/25-september/comment/opinion/people-need-alternatives-to-fear

Annie
Annie
5 years ago
Reply to  Annie

And here he us again, brought a huge lump into my throat:

https://allthingslawfulandhonest.wordpress.com/blog-2/

Girl down Under
Girl down Under
5 years ago
Reply to  Annie

That’s a great article Annie.

Steve Martindale
Steve Martindale
5 years ago

I was just about to answer a query on yesterdays newsletter when we all moved on to today’s. The question was about stats on ventilator patients, the data I find on this comes from
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
This site needs some caution as it has mixed data from all the devolved authorities and so to get a reasonable comparison I usually focus on English NHS data;
English NHS patients on ventilators
18th Sept 108
25th Sept 227
So a 110% increase in 7 days

The hospital stats are tricky, we had got to quite low figures and so it did not take much for the figures to jump up, but we will have to see if the daily numbers continue to feed this rise or have they reached a plateau?

Winston Smith
Winston Smith
5 years ago

The reasons for being intubated and ventilated may not be due to respiratory reasons, let alone ‘The Covid’.

The increase in numbers could due to may down to varied reasons.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago

It would be worth getting ventilator data for the last 5 years and seeing if there is a break from the usual distribution spread.

Uncle Monty
5 years ago

Boots the Chemist have helpfully shared this on Facebook.
This serves to underline exactly how unremarkable Covid really is.
You can’t fit a Rizla paper between the symptoms of ‘flu and ‘rona.

https://www.boots.com/resource/blob/2234726/9d28a4dae5610a61200e9e828910549a/health-coronavirus-recognising-coronavirus-symptoms-pdf-download-data.pdf

5E7C7221-0E17-4390-99C7-5A6958DC7408.jpeg
mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Uncle Monty

Which means that attribution noise is way higher than signal. And add in the tautology that occurs:

Positive test, no symptoms = Covid-19
Negative test, some symptoms = Covid-19.

So how can you be deemed not to have Covid-19?

ConstantBees
ConstantBees
5 years ago
Reply to  Uncle Monty

Thanks, that’s interesting. I have asthma and my attacks are often preceded by a bout of sneezing. Not surprising since asthma is often an allergic reaction to something. If I sneeze a few times, I’m on the lookout for asthma to follow.

davews
davews
5 years ago
Reply to  ConstantBees

Wearing a face mask causes shortness of breath! I was a bit worried the other day when I developed a tickle in my chest which developed into a fairly hoarse cough later. Disappeared after an energetic day up in London and fine now so guess it was just of those things.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago

Went to my local M&S yesterday and this is a branch that I’ve not had any problems during the whole of this shit show. They’ve done the bare minimum and have provided great service. Until yesterday. On my way in, I was greeted by a masked Karen who asked me if I had a face covering, I replied: “No I’m exempt” MK looks at me and gestures at her face. Me: I repeat, I’m exempt MK: Do you have proof I showed her my sunflower lanyard which I keep in my pocket MK: You should wear that while you’re in here. Me: No I shan’t MK: Well other shops will be asking for that so you have to wear it. Its the new regulations Me: I’m fully aware of the regulations so please don’t patronise me MK: I’m not patronising you Me: Yes you are. To cut the long story short, I asked to speak to the manager who was very helpful, apologised and was puzzled why Masked Karen just didn’t leave it as soon as I said I was exempt. I added that members of staff should not be behaving like those in a certain country in Europe in… Read more »

Jonathan Palmer
Jonathan Palmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

It is noticeable since the new regulations there has been an increase in mask wearing in the outdoors.Also I sense a change in shops,both from the staff and the muzzled shoppers,to one of hostility to the unmasked.
The government will never give up its fear peddling while it can exert so much power over the populace.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago

As one of my friends said she thinks there’s an increase in unpleasantness.

And you’re right. There are more than enough people willing to do the dirty work for them, the sort who would volunteer to be concentration camp guards or Stasi informers.

Silke David
Silke David
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I too think people are unpleasant.
Until yday, I often worked as greeter at the door of our cafe. How many people just walk past, ignoring my friendly and loud greeting. another reason why I quit.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Silke David

Yep and this crisis has exposed the unpleasantness underneath with many people.

Albie
Albie
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

If people are attempting to enforce rules then they should be obliged to pass a test based on the Government’s own website which states you do not need to provide written proof. Much of the public doesn’t know saying “I’m exempt” is enough and should be the end of the discussion. If you refuse, it’s a different matter. We know all this of course, but as I said, most people out there still don’t.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Albie

That’s what Mr Bart has said. He suspects that companies don’t give adequate training, an observation I’ve noted in my various encounters with retail and hospitality staff – many of them are not aware of the exemptions, the Equalities Act and GDPR!

When the day of reckoning comes, these people should be aware that “I was only following orders” and “I didn’t know” will not wash.

Sam Vimes
Sam Vimes
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

There is clearly *no* training. Shop staff/management, just like the general public are deciding what the ‘rules’ are for themselves. They obviously haven’t looked at any guidance or the law, like we have. Whenever there is some new announcement by Bunter and his pals – whatever it is – the GBP think “Oh, it must have got worse” and act accordingly.

davews
davews
5 years ago
Reply to  Sam Vimes

I am fairly open minded about masks (although knowing full well they do absolutely nothing). I am not so staunch about using my exemptions as some on here and do at least try using them. With an increasingly hostile Jo Public I don’t see any other option.

Yesterday wore my mask on the train/tube and apart from initial misting of my glasses which soon stopped I had no issues – including waiting 20 minutes on two stations due to disruption on the District Line. However this morning in Tesco was very different. Cold morning so after entering huge problems with glasses steaming and I found myself standing by the shelves with glasses removed just so I could see where things (and even I) were. Decided breathlessness after just 15 minutes. People just don’t seem to realise the problems but it must be blindly obvious to them. Probably will wear lanyard next week. Glad to report at the moment that Tesco are still normal with no outside queuing and full stock.

Silke David
Silke David
5 years ago
Reply to  Sam Vimes

Walking through town I have looked at the signs shops display. Most do not mention Exemptions apply. It scares me off from gong in!

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Sam Vimes

And many stores do over egg the pudding or make up their own rules as they go along such as those with the “no mask, no sale” diktat which is clearly in breach of the Equalities Act as it discriminates against those who can’t wear masks for physical and mental health reasons.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Albie

I’m still waiting for some shopper karen to ask why I’m exempt

KV “I don’t have to say why”
SK “That’s just bloody ridiculous!”
KV “Yes isn’t it”

JohnMac
JohnMac
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

“People with disabilities, long terms health problems and mental health issues have been thrown under the bus”.

Haven’t they just. And by the people who claim that they care the most.

Now More Than Ever
Now More Than Ever
5 years ago
Reply to  JohnMac

That’s exactly it. All of these people who usually loudly signal their virtue by “caring” for other members of society are showing themselves up here for what they really are when it matters: statist, self-preservationist authoritarians.

It’s as it always was: they only “care” for as long as it takes to post some meaningless “reshare” on Facebook or Twitter and for as long as it doesn’t, really, affect them.

Andrew Fish
Andrew Fish
5 years ago

This has always been the problem, even before social media. Robert Tombs’ excellent history of England shows how the Labour movement was born from middle-class methodists who basically felt that the poor needed to be manipulated for their own good.

Now More Than Ever
Now More Than Ever
5 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Fish

Over time, with society’s increased politicisation, this morphed into the Left’s cynical view that it was better to keep people poor so they had a ready-made source of votes.

Sylvie
Sylvie
5 years ago

Dismount from the hobby horse: the left simply seeks to provide a counterbalance to the power of capital by representing the power of labour.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Fish

Nothing changes.

Bella Donna
5 years ago
Reply to  JohnMac

If a government can have infected patients admitted back into care homes they can have no compunction ignoring people with disabilities.

The Filthy Engineer
The Filthy Engineer
5 years ago
Reply to  JohnMac

Even from supposed health care professionals too. Went for my flu jab yesterday. Not inside surgery mind: outside in a gazebo. The conversation went thus:

HCP: Do you have a mask?
Me: No (HCP turns to get me one)
Me: I don’t need one I’m exempt.
HCP: What’s your exemption?
Me: I don’t have to share that with you but seeing as you’re a HCP; I have asthma.
HCP: Asthmatics aren’t exempt.
Me: They are as far as I’m concerned. [steely stare from me convinces HCP to just give me the jab to get rid of me].

ConstantBees
ConstantBees
5 years ago

Of course, we’re exempt. It’s a respiratory condition. No way I’m getting a flu jab. Haven’t had one in decades. No flu either. And if anyone says I’m a sample of one, well, I’m just going in with the zeitgeist.

The Filthy Engineer
The Filthy Engineer
5 years ago
Reply to  ConstantBees

I completely understand your sentiments about the flu jab. I’m not convinced about its efficacy either if I’m honest. I take my jab because immediate family members are potentially vulnerable.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  JohnMac

Exactly. And also those who constantly go “Be Kind” on antisocial media as well.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  JohnMac

Agree. Many people in this crisis have exposed themselves to be who they truly are – its like the Picture of Dorian Gray, their caring persona hides an ugly authoritarian face.

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I’m off to bag me some vouchers then thanks!

Seriously, perfectly handled I don’t think you coukd have done any better. Well done.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

Thanks. Mr Bart did say that he could see why I phoned head office even after the apology from the manager.

Nsklent
Nsklent
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

‘Tyranny hides behind the alibi of safety’. Can’t remember who quoted this, but very apt.

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Nsklent

Always fear the leader who imposes on you for your own good. This will always lead to tyranny ( or something like that)
Isiah Berlin.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Nsklent

Good one. Can’t remember who said it, was it C.S. Lewis?

Silke David
Silke David
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

Good for you for taking the trouble
1 to ask for the manager
2 to phone head office
Most people would not bother, but we need to make a stand. Otherwise we are sheep, too (the black ones).

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Silke David

Thanks. Agree, we need to make a stand. I’ve lost count of how many letters I’ve written and its sad how good customer service and treating people with respect & dignity has has gone out of the window, all in the name of “safety”

karenovirus
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

My convenience store owner was embarrassed to ask to wear a mask again for the first time since I told him I was exempt and don’t need to tell him why, all fairly good natured.
I returned to the store and showed him the lawhnotfiction pdf and then sent it to his phone.

I told him that I was surprised that his Trade Association or The Grocer (trade press) had not issued him advice.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Many small shops are doing the bare minimum and that’s why I try to support them whenever I can. Trouble is where I live has a dearth of independents.

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

Congratulations on taking such a stand and pursuing the matter. I admire your resolve. I haven’t encountered any trouble as yet, but I do wear my badge and usually ask a question or 2 whenever I enter a shop.

I suspect that many employers are doing this on the cheap and providing the absolute bare minimum in terms of training and relevant information.

There are many petty gauleiter types around who are only to pleased to be able to wield some petty power.

This nonsense is so divisive and only adds to all the endless aggravation and control creep.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

That’s the appalling thing – the lack or absence of training, it makes you wonder if these companies have a death wish.

There are many petty gauleiter types around who are only to pleased to be able to wield some petty power.

Isn’t it just? I know certain people who would actively become gauleiters if they were allowed to.

arfurmo
arfurmo
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

No problems in my local PO and Building Society though was the only one in both. Lots of muzzles in street and of course (sighs) people by themselves in cars.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  arfurmo

Good for you, the odd thing was I went to Morrisons and the Co-Op instead and has no issues with both shops.

Kevin 2
Kevin 2
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I believe M and S officially partner with Sunflower Hidden Disabilities. Not that you have to wear the lanyard.
They may be better on understanding exemption, than many other stores (though this assistant clearly wasn’t)

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago
Reply to  Kevin 2

I didn’t know that. I was aware of Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s being partners with the Hidden Disabilities but if M&S are as well then definitely there was no excuse for that staff member not to be aware.

Kevin 2
Kevin 2
5 years ago
Reply to  Bart Simpson

I can’t find the list of officially partnered supermarkets, but if you look on this link and scroll down the alphabetical list of stores that recognise the Sunflower, you will see hundreds of M and S stores, possibly the one that is in your location.

https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/find-the-sunflower

Barney McGrew
Barney McGrew
5 years ago

So the false positive issue has been ‘debunked’? I think they have successfully neutralised it, anyway. In fact, the people who raised it are now feeling chastened, and no commentator like JHB will touch it again. Personally, having told various friends about it, I am now imagining them listening to Radio 4 and writing me off as a pathetic midwit – I have now shot that particular fox and can’t credibly raise it again. Even if they don’t understand the issues involved, they understand the general tenor of a ‘debunking’. While the original ‘FPR = 90% of positive results are false’ concept was too complex for Matt Hancock to grasp, it was understandable by PPE graduates. But the debunking has now complexified it beyond the understanding of most people, and at any rate has shaved off some of the excess falseness through pure assertion and guesswork. The pro-lockdown people are feeling vindicated and are now free to continue reading the runes of ‘cases’ unimpeded. Future questioning of their methods has been headed off. There’s got to be a lesson in there, somewhere. I hadn’t been aware that most of the people queuing up for tests had symptoms, anyway. If true,… Read more »

Charlie Blue
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

I’ve said this before, but Dido Harding herself gave evidence to the Select Committee that her own team’s surveys found that 25% of those questioned at testing centres admitted they had not had symptoms and just wanted reassurance. Strange that so many would openly admit to this – surely many, many more wouldn’t.

Barney McGrew
Barney McGrew
5 years ago
Reply to  Charlie Blue

…or could be suffering from psychosomatic symptoms.

Dan72
Dan72
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

I don’t understand this counter argument that says it’s ok as most people getting tested have symptoms. If the test is that accurate, then surely it tells us that at least 97% of people tested (based on the actual results) don’t have the rona and are in danger of being a false positive?

Barney McGrew
Barney McGrew
5 years ago
Reply to  Dan72

I think I understand what you’re saying. If we did a round of testing with 100,000 people, it might throw up, say 3,000 positives, 2,000 of which were false – and it would, of course, miss some genuine positives (say 30% of them).

Then if we eliminated the people who came up positive, and submitted the remaining 97,000 people to a second round of testing, it would throw up almost 2,000 positives, nearly *all* of which were false.

So the ‘debunkers’ are in a paradoxical bind, where they want to show that self-selection makes the testing more accurate, but it can then be shown that self-selection (perhaps based on previous test results) could make the result less accurate.

Their whole premise is based on self-selection, by ordinary people who are supposedly showing symptoms but feel up to queuing outdoors for a test – so the test results are going to be seasonal and weather-related in more than one way. Or they are relying on sick people driving to a drive-in testing station. Is that, er, a responsible thing to do?

CGL
CGL
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Belgium can’t be that convinced if they’ve stopped using it because of it’s inherent inaccuracy. And what about the label on the machine itself that says not to use it for diagnosis?

Steve Martindale
Steve Martindale
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Ideally this could all be tested by cross checking;
Unfortunately alternative testing methods are costly and time consuming.
The other cross check is to compare hospital data and death data with +ve test results. We already have figures for this and we can see that hospital cases and deaths are an extremely small number so that well over 90% of +ve test results are either false, asymptomatic or very mild – does it matter which?

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

Any evidence that the False Positive Rate is wrong other than assertion?
There have been authoritative artivles posted here on FPR which I have not seen any counter arguments against.
Example – you say its not 90%, so what is it then and show your workings.
Toby has featured various writers giving examles of what it is at 0.8% etc, so at the very least Id expect a decent explanation of why Prof Heneghan etc are completely wrong.
I did notice Toby et al were amused at an attempted rebuttal in the Huff Post which actually agreed with them yesterday.

Sylvie
Sylvie
5 years ago
Reply to  Nessimmersion

Exactly. Have we all forgotten the vox pops in test site car parks, where all the family turned out to get tested, because one primary school child had been sent home with a sniffle, and ordered to get a test? Cue Hancock, piously berating them for being wrongly tested as non eligible! And the woman who traipsed her sick child on a 204 mile round trip to get a test, probably the same one the operatives had to find a false Scottish postcode for, so as to be allowed to test them? On which completely anecdotal evidence I believe the majority of Pillar 2 testing, i.e. more than 50%, has been carried out on people without symptoms.

BeBopRockSteady
5 years ago
Reply to  Barney McGrew

It’s not been debunked. Its been successfully countered with some arguments. So it just means the debate is moving front and centre. Hopefully it stays there and it is resolved because its absolutely crucial to whole edifice of these restrictions via cases. So while the whole debunking is based on 20% of those tested actual being symptomatic of CV-19, that’s a huge assumption. My brother na dsister work at a pub where a staff member got tested positive. Nobody else had a + results after they all (well around 10% just said no chance) got tested. And none had symptoms. So that’s one case and around 30 asymptomatic staff getting tested as a result due to the process. So they’d need to prove that 20%. My observational study above tells me different. I also posted this yesterday : That Huff article on False Positives. It really is garbage or am I missing something: ““But if you turn up to a testing centre you’re already thinking: ‘I might have Covid’ and if you turn up with a cough and a fever then it’s probably quite a high probability that you have Covid.” The percentage of positive results to tests is around… Read more »

Mark H
Mark H
5 years ago

As of yesterday, Friday, a new Scottish law was brought in. This law makes it illegal to welcome guests into your private dwelling place, aka, your home. The act of “mingling” is also illegal if the group mingling is greater than 6 and involves more than 2 households. Apparently, in the UK, the last time we had a law against mingling was in the 14th century. Let’s imagine a friend has lost a family member to a disease or illness. Like cancer, for example, which claims the lives of 25 times more people per day than CV19. What’s your first response to this? To go and visit them, to offer comfort and support? Illegal. You can, however, visit them in their garden. Should they live in a house with a garden. But, of course, you’re not allowed to give them a hug, sit close to them, hold their hand, provide the ingrained human responses that we recognise as comforting. This imaginary friend’s relative will have died alone in hospital, the only other humans they’ll have seen will have been the masked nurses and doctors, unable to have their loved ones around them as they lost their battle with cancer. And… Read more »

Cheshirecatslave
Cheshirecatslave
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

I believe there is a higher law we are called to obey that of acting like a decent human being. I felt queasy when I read of people actually boasting they hadn’t visited sick or dying relatives at home in order to adhere to lockdown laws.

Bart Simpson
Bart Simpson
5 years ago

Same here. I felt uneasy when someone I know actually boasted that she never hugged her parents when she went home during lockdown. Its chilling that many people would simply forgo what it means to be human in order to observe laws and regulations.

Steve Martindale
Steve Martindale
5 years ago

Agreed the right of human contact and association should be sacrosanct, it is repugnant and despicable that any of our leaders think that they can do this.
The human rights act says;
Article 11: Freedom of assembly and association1. Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and to freedom of association with others, including the right to form and to join trade unions for the protection of his interests.
2. No restrictions shall be placed on the exercise of these rights other than such as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security or public safety, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of

I guess they would say it is being done for reasons of health

Stephanos
Stephanos
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

I have just copied this comment to my MP, Mr. Greg Smith, who has not said whether he would support Sir Graham Brady.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

Reminds me of the AIDS scare when movies where made trying to show you couldn’t catch HIV by shaking hands, hugging, even sharing a sandwich.

Plus ça change.

Nsklent
Nsklent
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

To quote St Augustine, an unjust law is not a law. I think a stark but effective comparison made to such remarks about obeying laws was that the people who hid Anne Frank were breaking the law, those that sought to kill her were following the law. Diktats are not laws.

Caroline Watson
Caroline Watson
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

In the North East we are not allowed to visit other households in their gardens either.

Farinances
Farinances
5 years ago
Reply to  Mark H

D I S O B E Y

Fingerache Philip
Fingerache Philip
5 years ago

I know that this quote by Dolores Ibarruri (The passion flower) from the Spanish civil war will not go well with a lot of fellow sceptics as she was a prominent communist on the Republican side, but nobody could argue with this quote of her’s
IT IS BETTER TO DIE ON YOUR FEET THAN LIVE ON YOUR KNEES.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago

In Barcelona in the old town there is a small square with only two entrances. It’s hard to find. In the square on a wall is an large black door set in stone. The stone is decayed and in a bad state. Large chunks have come off.

On the door is written: Es Mejor Morir En Los Pies Que Vivir En Las Rodillas

I asked my friend at the time what this was about and why was the stone in such disrepair. Was it neglect? Pollution?

“It’s because of all the bullet holes”, he said.

“This is where Franco executed people”

wendyk
wendyk
5 years ago

No pasaran!

Fingerache Philip
Fingerache Philip
5 years ago
Reply to  wendyk

THEY(COLLABORATORS) SHALL NOT PASS!

Richard Pinch
5 years ago

I regret to say that the “Covid 19 Assembly” rather blew their chances of getting me to help them my explaining to me that the sort of help they wanted was

I would be really interested if you could help explain why perhaps Ferguson’s model shouldn’t be trusted.

I don’t think you get professional scientists to help by telling them what answers you want them to give.

Jonathan Palmer
Jonathan Palmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

No,you give them a big research grant and they will give you any answer you want

Richard Pinch
5 years ago

Since that remark is in response to a comment of mine, I’ll just say that it isn’t true.

Jonathan Palmer
Jonathan Palmer
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

I forgot to add a nice job or a load of shares
Science in this country has been totally corrupted and we are reaping the whirlwind.I wasn’t questioning your integrity as you are here,so may be one of the good ones

Nigel Sherratt
Nigel Sherratt
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

You are fortunate to have encountered no dishonest or corrupt people in your professional life. Would that were true of the building game. Planning (where the stakes are highest) is the worst.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Sherratt

There are problems in science, and there is bad behaviour by scientists, and it would be foolish to deny it. I’m certainly not saying I have not encountered those things, but in my experience they’re the exception not the rule.

Ajb
Ajb
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

I think an associated problem, which is sometimes related to funding, is that in academia there are fewer and fewer of what might be termed ‘polymaths’, and the tendency for people as they continue studying is to find out more and more about less and less, and since many of the obvious topics have already been covered, the focus for, say, PhDs becomes more obscure. Very few academics are able to see a bigger picture than their special interest – and if someone is keen to fund their research, it must be really important, mustn’t it?
What we need are more “lads (or lassies) o’ pairts” to see the whole picture.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Ajb

This has been the tendency of science for a long time, and it isn’t helped by the pressure to publish, and certain tactical aspects of REF assessment and funding — inter-disciplinary research usually gets under-rated. As a mathematician, I spent the first half of my career doing pure research, which I enjoyed, and the second half using mathematics in a wide range of real-life problems, which I enjoyed just as much. In the third half of my career, I can dabble in all sorts of things, like modelling, but also have a special interest in Knowledge Exchange.

Nigel Sherratt
Nigel Sherratt
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

The irreproducability of much medical research is certainly an issue, as highlighted by Ioannidis.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Sherratt

I would also recommend Science Fictions by Stuart Ritchie. Yes, there are reasons to be pessimistic in some areas. Reproducibility is getting problematic, as is the control of commercial funders over research results. But they are, I believe, fixable. I’m not ready to give up yet!

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

The key is in the “perhaps”. As a default you don’t trust models. Not if they feed into any real world implications. You use them to bound testing or to give you some idea of risk but only after validating them and verifying them. Otherwise they are just wild hypothetical guesses and a waste of time. Ferguson’s model was neither validated or verified as demonstrated very aptly by Sue Denim. This is a process that all software and systems go through, in many fields and applications. It is a tried and tested method of minimising assumptions and shaking out what your applications actually do. Because in the end a lot of these applications, that start as simulations/emulations, are built to try and not kill people. So that fact that Ferguson and the like have a hypothetical model is fine, as long as it stays in the hypothetical field and does not enter into any policy making. The only way it may is after validation and verification. Which wasn’t done. It isn’t a matter of repetition either. It’s a matter of examining the logic and testing from the unit up to the system (end to end) level that the model produces… Read more »

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

I’m not saying I support Prof. Ferguson’s model — I haven’t had the opportunity to study it in detail. It might well be that if I were to put in that effort I would indeed agree with Sue Denim ( with whom I have had interesting discussion courtesy of these comments columns), and it might not. But there’s no attraction to me in putting in that work on behalf of this group if, as seems likely, any assessment I might make would only be acceptable if they conformed to some pre-existing conclusion. And there’s even less attraction to me in working on behalf of a group that seems predisposed to believe that all models are at best useless, when I believe that mathematical modelling and models are useful tools capable of generating real value when used correctly. If this group had said something like “We believe that modelling has been abused and would like an independent assessment of whether the Ferguson model was fit for the purpose for which it was used” then I would at least have considered taking it further. But I must decline to work with a group that seems to want me to violate my own… Read more »

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

I agree with you on that. I think the real problem was that Ferguson’s model was taken to be as meaningful as say a stress model on a bridge when it wasn’t.

The former has high levels of uncertainty and more importantly untested code. The stress model is based on years of principles and evidence and gets independently reviewed. Even then it is used only as a guide and margin/reality still has to be considered.

The fault however lies with both Ferguson and the politicians. Ferguson should have the ethics to realise he is extrapolating way beyond the bounds of his argument into the real world. The politicians should have known to ask engineers and auditors for their take.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

I think you’re leaving out the role of SAGE. They adopted the 80%/510,000 figure as a Reasonable Worst Case. They surely knew what they were doing, and I don’t think any of them were unaware of what the uncertainties involved in modelling are: indeed at least one member of SAGE is a professor of mathematical biology who herself has at least an equal expertise in that subject. (I do not speak for her and have no idea what her comments may have been on the subject). And it wasn’t just Ferguson’s multi-agent model: simple SIR gives you the same qualitative answers to the simple do-nothing question.

It is certainly a mistake to confuse a RWC with a prediction, and another mistake to confuse an estimate for one, hypothetical, situation with the outcome of the completely different real-life scenario — although both of those mistakes are regularly made and enthusiastically propagated, not least by some contributors to these columns. I don’t know why.

matt
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

You’ve rightly pointed out before that advisors advice, ministers decide. This is clearly true and the great majority of the blame for the situation lies with the government rather than with SAGE in general or Ferguson personally. Where Ferguson does deserve blame is that he actively sought publicity for his domesday reasonable worst case scenario figure, so that it was firmly embedded in the minds of the population, the press and the government. This made holding steady in the Sweden herd immunity course far harder than it would have been. And not only did Ferguson seek publicity in March, but he’s still doing it and using his original results to retrospectively justify the policy and justify a continuation of the policy.

He was asked for advice and he gave it. That should have been that and the government should have been left to make their decisions based on the information available. But it wasn’t left at that because Ferguson allowed himself the luxury of making his name by kicking off project fear.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

As I’ve said a simple SIR gives you the same answers if you make certain assumptions based on data that has been reported. It’s even in Ferguson’s paper. However the quality of that data and the propagation of errors is downplayed.

A simple SIR model will only reflect the quality of the inputs. If they aren’t good, if there are attribution errors for Covid-19, as we have seen, for example, then the results will have very large uncertainties.

And this is something that could be seen straight away, because it occurs all the time in industry and science. GIGO. The rush to attribute Covid to a range of respiratory issues, not looking for other causes or looking at context. The list goes on

Also with regards to SAGE, someone being a professor in mathematical biology is not going to change the basis of the Scientific Method. In fact SAGE should have had industrial people with real-life experience rather than academics

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

SAGE should have had industrial people with real-life experience rather than academics

You mean people like Demis Hassabis, cofounder of DeepMind? Mike Short, VP of Telefonica?

Why would industrial scientists automatically be better than academics? I’m a little inclined to wonder whether you’ve ever worked with either sort.

someone being a professor in mathematical biology is not going to change the basis of the Scientific Method

No, and being an industrial rather than an academic scientist doesn’t change it either. But it does mean that she is rather more likely than the average person commenting here to understand how mathematical models work and what they can and cannot be used for, which was my point.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

If the Ferguson approach was used on cars, aeroplanes, phones, there would be an outcry. Well, it’s the SAGE approach and Ferguson’s model. But the situation is the the same. With cars, planes etc, the do-nothing option is largely safe. Don’t introduce a new model or new technology, and things will carry on pretty much as before. You also have plenty of time. The worst that can happen is that a rival enterprise completes their testing first and grabs the market, and if they’re doing their due diligence too, they should take pretty m uch the same time over it. In February, we had no time. The decisions had to be taken then and there, and the do-nothing option, although on the table, was by far from obviously largely safe. I would defend using, say, a simple SIR model to give an estimate for the effect of do-nothing based only on the parameters need for such a simple model, namely pre-existing immunity, R0 and infection period. Such models have been used for nearly a hundred years, and they are known to give reasonable fit with previous epidemics. The result of that model would have been the famous 510,000 figure, near… Read more »

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

No Richard, catastophe was not on the cards at all. And even if so the level headed thing to do was increase hospital contingency. The first thing that should have happened when that figure came out, even if using a simple SIR model, would be to question the use of the model in the first place. Before using a model you need to make sure your data is relevant, has been obtained with sufficiently low noise to match the expected variations. The data is key not the model. I’ve seen this happen on space missions where vibration requirements have been applied causing years of extra work to be done on components when the problem was the original levels were theoretical. The actual launch vibrations were a third of the values. The act of good science is to fall onto the method, however unpopular that is with people invested in their hypothetical ideas. So to answer again, we should have looked at the uncertainty in the data, looked at previous flu hotspot behaviour, not assumed it was all due to one cause because influential virologists and epidemiologists wanted it to be the case. Not done a mad panic and simply increased… Read more »

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

But also just to add there are other models to consider. There’s the one that says when you give petty tyrants power they will not relinquish it. There’s the model of requirements and mission creep that happens without clear end goals.

There’s the mode of how humans react to fear and there’s the well established principle of the Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions.

There’s also the model that centralised overbeaing control of society by diktat does not lead to a prosperous and successful society. That the collective behaviour and individual decisions of a freer society contribute more good than one under technological control.

You see life is not just about medical things or scientific models in one field.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

catast[r]ophe was not on the cards at all

And you know that how, exactly? The citizens of Manaus and Guyaquil might disagree with you. (BTW, “Sweden” is not the answer here — we’re talking about the “do-nothing” scenario. Sweden did quite a lot. Manaus and Guayaquil are much more like “do-nothing”)

You don’t explain what process you would have applied, given the data available at, say, SAGE 11, to formulate your advice. You say we should have looked at this or that, but not how you would take that look forward to a recommendation.

Before using a model you need to make sure your data is relevant, has been obtained with sufficiently low noise to match the expected variations. The data is key not the model.

So at SAGE 11, you would probably have said the data was too uncertain. I disagree, as it happens, since an advantage of simple models is that you can calibrate exactly how robust their outputs are to changes in the input paramaters. But let’s assume that the data was insufficiently certain even to distinguish between “tolerable” and “intolerable” as the outcomes. Now what? Throw up your hands and say nothing?

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Manaus has not had a catastrophe Richard. I’ve been through this with you time and time again. The figures do not add up when compared against Sweden and the UK for example. With the way that Covid is attributed and the looseness of the range of symptoms, coupled with the WHO’s guidance you the uncertainty in the actual cause of death is high. So you are measuring deaths that occur anyway but say they are Covid. The same has happened in Ireland which has had to change its figures due to the work of people liek Dolores Cahill. Here we saw how Carl Henegan’s work has reduced figures and there is more and more coming out. But you could see that straight away in the way that figures were attributed and the lack of falsifiabilty in the premise. In other words, basic Scientific Method. You keep saying “Do nothing” like it’s a bad thing? It’s the Null Hypothesis. Yes you practically do nothing. That is what the reality is. Doing something based on uncertain data has a high chance of causing ruin, like it is doing. How many times do we have to learn that lesson, the lesson of history?… Read more »

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

Yes we have discussed this before, and I’m still puzzled as to why you say what you say. Manaus did have a catastrophe. Sweden is not an example of “do-nothing”. In my view, in this particular case, “do nothing” would indeed have been a Bad Thing. You disagree, and that’s your privilege. I’ve explained why I think it was, but I have yet to hear your reasons for thinking that “Do nothing” would not have been a disaster. You seem to suggest that, and then start describing all the things you could do. But then that’s not the “do-nothing” scenario, is it? As far as i can tell, your arguments for the “Do nothing” scenario are It’s the Null Hypothesis Many of the things you could do would be worse than doing nothing Sweden didn’t do too badly Places that did do-nothing didn’t have disasters really The first is true but irrelevant; the second is tautologically true; the third is irrelevant; and the fourth appears to fly in the face of the evidence. But what we have yet to hear is If the UK government had decided to do nothing, the consequences would have been … How, exactly, would you… Read more »

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Manaus had a lot of reported deaths to Covid but was it actually Covid or the way it was attributed? How much was second and teritiary effects to the system responding to the perception of something being wrong? You can make a “catastrophe” out of anything if you set certain rules about what gets to be in your set of data. But when you start comparing like for like you see descrepancies which you may start to attribute to other differences. However logic would dictate you may have a problem with your initial premise. Manaus shows that. So: 1) It’s the Null Hypothesis – yes – the system has already got contingency to deal with excess death numbers up to 100,000 and possibly more. And that’s without any compensatory effects that can occur reflexively. You can see this in the All-Cause Mortality Rate for years of data. To aid that you may introduce more contingency to the key parts of the system namely the health service. But the key is that a multi-component system with a legacy of surviving will continue to survive. The issue here is that you believe that Covid is causing a lot of deaths rather than… Read more »

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

provided that Covid was properly attributed.

Ah, the no true Scotsman fallacy. We’ll never know, of course, since the do-nothing policy was never implemented. But the implication of your estimate (I won’t say prediction) of 5,000 deaths on do-nothing, suggests that either lockdown actually caused ten times as many Covid deaths as do-nothing would have done, which seems implausible to say the least, or if not, then at least 90% of Covid deaths are mis-attributed in the UK, and most other countries.

So at this point, I’m going to say, thanks for providing your estimates, and my reaction is that I find them at least as unconvincing as you do mine.

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Richard you can think what you like but saying that I’m using the “No True Scotsman fallacy” shows you have a weak argument. If I want to know how many people die to colon cancer there are ways to get that data with reasonable certainty.
Is that a “No True Scotsman fallacy”?

Of course not. I’m not trying to go down into infinite detail. Simply look at the wide range of Covid-19 symptoms and you decide if you sort the wheat from the chaff.

If we have one of two unique symptoms with a measurable progression of the disease and that’s followed up with autopsies we can clear the mud and get a better picture.

We don’t have that so my point still stands.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

No, the “No True Scotsman” fallacy consists of reassigning data that doesn’t suit your case into some other category. It seems to me that this is what you want to do in order to support your case, and you want to do it with figures from all over the world.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

And where does that number come from?

Tee Ell
Tee Ell
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

Nothing wrong with an SIR model to help influence thinking, provided the inputs are trustworthy and it’s not the only foundation for your argument. What should “S” have been in this case?

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Tee Ell

A good question. Another valuable part of the modelling process is that it allows you to give some sort of answer to this sort of question. If we go by the figures from Guayaquil of final infection numbers around 33% then that would be consistent a pre-existing immunity level of around 50%. But it’s also consistent with a number of other things, such as heterogeneous spreading.

As I’ve said before, the Reasonable Worst Case scenario was based on no pre-existing immunity.

Tee Ell
Tee Ell
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

I just wish they had mediated that “Reasonable Worst Case” scenario by also presenting the “middle road” scenario – and basing policy on that while also balancing it by analysing it in the context of the potential adverse impacts of taking action.

I’m aware of modellers who are too far removed from the biology thinking zero was a reasonable starting assumption, but I’m not aware of virologists who felt the same. That’s anecdotal though obviously, I haven’t done any surveys or anything ha.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  Tee Ell

I agree that presenting a Reasonable Worst Case as a prediction is unsatisfactory.

matt
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

You need to bear in mind that the group is an activist group and so is unlikely to have a dispassionate motive. Your principles are not wrong at all. If you were to look into the mathematics at work in the code and find that they were perfectly sound, then of course it would be wrong to say otherwise.

Personally, I’d be curious to know the answer to the question either way, but I’m not altogether sure that the answer makes very much difference. I suspect that the problem with the model lies more with the starting assumptions and the inputs that with the basic maths. 1+3=4 is sound maths, but if you mistakenly input “2” instead of “1” your answer will be wrong, however sound your formula is.

Richard Pinch
5 years ago
Reply to  matt

Even an activist group may find that transparently working with independent experts adds to their credibility. If they were able to say that they had commissioned an independent study from an independent scientist with no commitment to their cause and agreed to publish the study irrespective of its results, it would add tremendously to the weight of a conclusion that did support their cause. And if they are not confident that an independent study would support their cause, then that means they are not confident in the validity of their arguments, which would constitute another disincentive to work with them.

matt
5 years ago
Reply to  Richard Pinch

I don’t disagree.

Now More Than Ever
Now More Than Ever
5 years ago

The COVID-19 Assembly survey sounds a good idea and I will try to share it with a few people I respectfully disagree with. However, the fact that it has been designed by the former lead psychologist of Cambridge Analytica (a toxic name in the eyes of many “statists”) will sadly discredit it.

Albie
Albie
5 years ago

Well, YouGov have completely discredited themselves this week. They nailed their pro lockdown colours well and truly to its mast in an article both on their site and the Telegraph. They say there isn’t a “silent majority” against lockdown restrictions and got quite snarky. They interpreted a “somewhat support” for restrictions as “overwhelming support”. The article is on You Govs site but will make your blood boil its that snidey in tone. All future YouGov polls on any subject are now, for me, irrelevant. The article is tangible bias.

alw
alw
5 years ago

Civil disobedience in London called for.

alw
alw
5 years ago

Civil disobedience

804FC752-980B-4D8E-9DC7-1C42D7552709.png
Albie
Albie
5 years ago

As more and more people ask questions it follows that traffic to this site will increase daily. Therefore, longstanding contributors shouldn’t feel apprehensive about being repetitive. You are sharing your comments with new readers all the time. For example, we know the ins and outs of mask rules but it’s astonishing how many out there don’t, and the anxiety they cause so many is immense. People will head to the comments to see how others fare with masks and how to deal with the situation when questioned for not having one so it can never be repeated enough that saying “I’m exempt” is all that’s needed. No proof required. This is stated on the Government’s own website.

Gillian
Gillian
5 years ago
Reply to  Albie

Excellent point. The other side is never shy of constant repetition of its doom-laden message.

Gillian
Gillian
5 years ago
Reply to  Gillian

Meant to add that the Daily Mirror online today has yet another story (couldn’t bring myself to read it) about a man who initiaaly thought covid was a load of bulls**t……until he was “struck down” and “just pulled through with the help of the wonderful NHS”. Yawn!

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Albie

I shall relax about over doing it on the devi comments then.

Boris is getting uk into bed with Wellcome Trust and BMG foundation today in order to fend off future pandemics. Said that earlier too – it bears repeating!

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

I saw the excellent interview with Steve Baker last night, but wonder about his ability to influence these sorts of decisions and get them reversed?

Sylvie
Sylvie
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

Thing is, Basics, I love your comments because you always bring some new fact or insight or sheer pleasantness to the table. Can’t forget your image of sitting in the sun by a boulder with a flask of tea, for example. But increasingly, coming on this site feels like groundhog Day, which is why I’d disagree with the notion that regular contributors are doing good by repeating themselves. What’s wrong with newbies going on the links about masks, for example, and getting some background, and below the line commentators sticking to new insights? ?

JohnB
JohnB
5 years ago
Reply to  Basics

Suggest we only call him ‘Boris’ if we’re his mates. The ‘incompetent but endearing buffoon’ is still part of the bad guys playbook – we should not endorse it.

NickR
5 years ago

Chris Whitty’s worst case projection of 200 daily Covid-19 deaths is only 60% of the average level of excess daily winter deaths of 338 (average excess winter daily deaths 2010-2019 = 338).
It seems hard to believe that, given solitary confinement of most people we’ll reach anything like the average this year. But let’s suppose we do.
If we add the 338 to the 200 we get 538 daily deaths combined, just a bit lower than the daily death total 2017/18!
The reality is that the profile of people who die of Covid-19 are virtually the same as the people who die of flu.
So, accepting Chris Whitty’s projected 200 as the lowest likely daily level and 538 as the maximum likely level of daily deaths we’re likely to fall somewhere inbetween the 2. Just like every other year.

Venn Diagram.jpg
Tim Bidie
Tim Bidie
5 years ago
Reply to  NickR

In other words, pretty much like the normal age profile of people who die every year.

As the coronavirus expert located in China during the outbreak said back in February: ‘…..my thinking is this is actually not as severe a disease as is being suggested. The fatality rate is probably only 0.8%-1%. There’s a vast underreporting of cases in China. Compared to Sars and Mers we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of 8 to 10 times less deadly to Sars to Mers. So a correct comparison is not Sars or Mers but a severe cold. Basically this is a severe form of the cold.’

Ned of the Hills
Ned of the Hills
5 years ago
Reply to  NickR

I’m not sure that Whitty on Monday was maintaining 200 daily Covid deaths is the worse case projection. I find it difficult to work out what he was claiming going on what he said in his Monday broadcast:- “This graph is a simple one, it simply shows the number of inpatient cases in England over the period from the first of August. And until that point in time, there had been a steady fall over a long period of time, right back from early April. And it then stabilised for a period and flattened out, but over the period since the first of September, you can see a steady, sustained rise in numbers with a doubling time, as with the cases, of probably seven or eight days. Now what that tells us is that if this carried on unabated, these numbers are relatively small, we are talking about around 200 at the moment, but if this, if this continued along the path that Patrick laid out, the number of deaths directly from Covid, I’ll come back to indirect deaths, will continue to rise, potentially on an exponential curve. That means doubling and doubling and doubling again, and you can quickly… Read more »

Ned of the Hills
Ned of the Hills
5 years ago

Posted above an even gloomier prediction of CFR made by Prof. Graham Medley.

A. Contrarian
A. Contrarian
5 years ago
Reply to  NickR

But remember, it’s only covid deaths that are bad, so the total number doesn’t matter.

Tim Bidie
Tim Bidie
5 years ago

Harold Wilson’s Britain of the 1970s led to overwhelming support amongst all age groups for the reforming government of Margaret Thatcher, defined against the anarchy of the miners unions.

None of the major parties now have any appetite in the ‘Blair’s Britain’ of today for the far reaching reform that is required in this country, defined once more by a recalcitrant public sector clinging to its perquisites.

If there ever is to be a time for a new reforming political force to begin the slow steady ascent to power, as youngsters experience for themselves constraints on the freedoms that they hitherto took for granted, a shock similar to the power cuts of the Wilson era, now would be it.

Andrew Fish
Andrew Fish
5 years ago
Reply to  Tim Bidie

Have a look at the SDP website (https://sdp.org.uk/). I don’t agree with them on everything, but socially they might be just what this country needs at the moment.

crimsonpirate
5 years ago
Reply to  Andrew Fish

I had a look too. The idea of starting a party from scratch seems a tall order and we have experience of what happened to UKIP and the Brexit party as a reference.

Sylvie
Sylvie
5 years ago
Reply to  Tim Bidie

Which parts of the recalcitrant public sector are you objecting to? NHS, teachers, local government dealing with social care and education, what? From where I’m sitting the recalcitrant private sector of City property magnates owning major office blocks, civil aviation chiefs and petrochemical industrialists are the ones all pressuring governments to perpetuate outdated business models and be supported by my money to do so.

Tim Bidie
Tim Bidie
5 years ago
Reply to  Sylvie

The public sector is an outdated business model.

Private industries supported by public money are quite clearly part of the public sector, the problem.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/rebooting-britain-2019

Bruno
Bruno
5 years ago
Reply to  Tim Bidie

I’m afraid allowing some parts of the public sector to be purchased and run by private industries like Serco has been a disaster. The public sector is not an ‘outdated business model.’ It is a public service, which when pretending to be run on the profit motive becomes a car crash. Eventually the state, i.e. you and me, has to step back in, reassume responsibility for the debts and risks, and get on with it. Witness the probation service, the rash of private health and safety consultancies leading to Grenfell, railways, water, etc.

Nessimmersion
5 years ago
Reply to  Sylvie

As opposed to the legions of council, quango and NHS staff all working from home on reduced pay and not accruing pension rights?
How about the private sector of 1/2 a million hospitality sector workers shortly going on the dole because of dictats from a secure management class who will always have taxpayer funded income.
Tbe govt is not boosting private office rental incomes last time I looked.
Civil aviation has shrunk by 80% already and petrochemicals are fairly essential and tax paying rather than taxtaking.

Emily Tock
Emily Tock
5 years ago

I’m in a terrible funk today, which is unusual for a person who has always chosen joy and concrete, individual action. With unis scheduled to start modules this comming Monday, the Irish government gave a shambolic pronouncement late yesterday afternoon that all higher education institutions must go online for at least 2 weeks (take it as read that this will continue indefinitely.) My oldest son’s classes in Toronto have already been put online, my youngest (still in secondary) is doing school online, my middle son and I are studying/working at uni here in Ireland… When I teach, I read individual faces, as well as the group dynamic to gauge my students’ level of understanding, which I will not have in an environment where students can ‘attend’ an online class with their mic muted and video turned off… I despair for the bright, potential-filled lives of my children and all the other students I have ever taught. Now the government is threatening 3rd level lockdown in Galway, which would make the small chamber group some friends and I just formed illegal. I’m not sure I can envision the long-term point of such a joyless existence. Ireland has a total of 17… Read more »

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Emily Tock

Sad to hear about Galway. The city is reknowned for its flowing mass of people in and out of bars and onto the streets. That’s part of the charm. You start your drink in one place and end up finishing it in another.

Emily Tock
Emily Tock
5 years ago
Reply to  mhcp

We wandered the streets last night, FRIDAY, with students supposedly back for the new year. There were a few about, but nothing like how it would normally be. With third level lockdown, it will be even quieter… Galway has an extremely vibrant live music and theatre culture and multiple arts festivals, which will be even further decimated if we are placed under stricter lockdown measures. October, November, and December are very low on sun here – arts and the bars, cafes, and pubs keep the city going during that yearly dark time. What will happen this year?

mhcp
mhcp
5 years ago
Reply to  Emily Tock

Halloween won’t be good by the sounds of it

Kath Andrews
Kath Andrews
5 years ago

On the train to sunny London. Conductor just asked where’s my mask. Have lanyard in my bag, but couldn’t bring myself to show it him. Bit of a stand off, nothing major, but he did warn me that checks are being carried out today. Blood boiling.

Templeton
Templeton
5 years ago
Reply to  Kath Andrews

Feeling your pain acutely at the moment Kath.
I’m sure they will be using todays protest to take proper liberties

Sam Vimes
Sam Vimes
5 years ago
Reply to  Kath Andrews

Going to a peaceful, lawful protest? No mask? You are clearly a dangerous, far-right conspiracy theorist* and will need to be handcuffed. Unless you have a hidden gun, of course, in which case you are exempt.

*(Thick/Brexit voting/racist/Wetherspoon customer are assumed)

Kath Andrews
Kath Andrews
5 years ago
Reply to  Sam Vimes

🤣

Steeve
5 years ago

HOW CAN YOU BE FORCED TO SELF ISOLATE? Sounds like HOUSE ARREST to me. Tagging next?

Basics
Basics
5 years ago
Reply to  Steeve

They are using isolation tags in western OZ. Not criminal tags – isolation. Amounts to the same thing. A lady in Oz was the furst to have one fitted. Please add link if you go searching.

Carrie
Carrie
5 years ago
Reply to  Steeve

See Julia H-B’s Twitter of a family that had to endure just that in Hong Kong: https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1309762870079619072

Templeton
Templeton
5 years ago

Sorry if someone has already linked and commented on this, but I woke up still raging from yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54295612 Felt obliged to say something. You have opted to report about fines on face coverings from a biased view point. The law states that only BTPolice or a public health official can challenge someone without a mask. You report that both a passenger and a bus driver have received physical abuse for challenging others to wear a mask, which they should not be doing. The law also states that there are a large number of exemptions on face coverings for people who cannot wear them. You have made no mention of this and have effectively framed the story against anyone who may be exempt. I have recently started to travel back into London after being furloughed and am following exemption rules. I have been verbally abused 4 times in 5 days by members of the public, even though I have opted to use Network rails “Sunflower” lanyard and disability card to display why I am not wearing a face covering. Again the law states that there is no need for me to wear this but I am having to because of… Read more »