Masks: How Effective Are They?
The effectiveness of face masks in preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been much debated, but there seems to be an emerging consensus that they’re more effective than the authorities believed (or professed to believe) at the beginning of the outbreak. This is important because if masks are a bulwark against infection they could play a critical role in the exit strategy. As a general rule, those developed countries that have imposed less severe social distance measures than the UK are those with a much higher use of masks per capita, like Japan, South Korea and Singapore.
Further Reading
‘Face masks: much more than you wanted to know‘ by Scott Alexander, Slate Star Codex, March 23rd 2020
‘Everyone Thinks They’re Right About Masks‘ by Ed Yong, The Atlantic, April 1st 2020
‘Data suggests masks matter, tests don’t‘ by John Hinderaker, Powerline, April 6th 2020
‘Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review‘, Jeremy Howard et al., preprints.org, April 12th 2020
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“Trea[t]ing *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization.”
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249289397532602368
“This is the strongest statistical association I’ve seen w/ respect to the virus. Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat: @WHO is criminally incompetent.
PS-Don’t get into elevators, buses, etc. unless your mask is N95”
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249296844712218624
“MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an “imperfect” mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%.”
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249296844712218624
Taleb’s basic argument is just an application of elementary probability analysis and is patently correct. The basic arguments against use of masks are three:
(a) there aren’t enough so the public wearing them will detract from availability for more urgent uses [i.e. crass incompetence in supply management];
(b) people don’t wear them properly so the reduction in risk is, say, only 50% rather than 90% [i.e. we don’t understand either probability or the law of large numbers]; and
(c) the best is the enemy of the good or bureaucratic gold-plating that says that nothing should be done unless it conforms to the highest standards [i.e. we need to protect our backs against hindsight even at the cost of bad things happening now].
In many respects the last reason is the most worrying because it has been a prevalent feature of the responses to Covid-19 in many countries and especially in the UK. In any crisis the first action has to be to get rid of most of the deadwood that rises to the top of bureaucracies in calmer times and replace them with people who are both competent and capable of acting effectively.
> (a) there aren’t enough so the public wearing them will > detract from availability for more urgent uses [i.e. crass incompetence > in supply management]; The question of effectiveness is orthogonal to whether there is a paucity of supply. One can make a rudimentary mask at home; local companies, free from the Government’s strictures around NHS PPE, might even start making them. The message “masks are effective yet, while there is a shortage, masks should be prioritised for health/key workers” is not contradictory, yet the Government is disingenuous and insists that universal mask wearing is ineffective among the public. > [i.e. we need to protect our backs against hindsight even at the cost of > bad things happening now]. In many respects the last reason is the most > worrying because it has been a prevalent feature of the responses to > Covid-19 in many countries and especially in the UK. In any crisis the > first action has to be to get rid of most of the deadwood that rises to > the top of bureaucracies in calmer times and replace them with people > who are both competent and capable of acting effectively. Indeed. Should this not… Read more »
So how would facial recognition work, then?
An extensive literature review by a former Professor in Canada found that face masks do not provide measurable protection against colds and influenza. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340570735_Masks_Don't_Work_A_review_of_science_relevant_to_COVID-19_social_policy
Professor Sucharit Bhakdi says face masks for the general population are not needed and may in fact be harmful “germ catchers“.
Dr. Russell Blaylock’s article: “Face Masks Pose Serious Risks To The Healthy” is summarised: “a recent careful examination of the literature, in which 17 of the best studies were analyzed, concluded that, “ None of the studies established a conclusive relationship between mask/respirator use and protection against influenza infection.”1 [bin-Reza F et al]
When a person is infected with a respiratory virus, they will expel some of the virus with each breath. If they are wearing a mask, especially an N95 mask or other tightly fitting mask, they will be constantly rebreathing the viruses, raising the concentration of the virus in the lungs and the nasal passages. We know that people who have the worst reactions to the coronavirus have the highest concentrations of the virus early on. And this leads to the deadly cytokine storm in a selected number.” https://www.technocracy.news/blaylock-face-masks-pose-serious-risks-to-the-healthy/ https://evidencenotfear.com/tag/medical-experts/
cdc study indicating they do not work: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article Also, there is no standard at all (as opposed to things like bicycle helmets). This would indicate it’s merely a submission/dehumanization measure, any rag/kerchief/flimsy cloth will do the job.
We can see the unfortunate outcome with mask wearing playing out across the NHS and care facilities. People, no matter how hard they try not to, touch the mask during its use and then upon removal fail to conform to good personal hygiene practice. The next time they touch their mouth, nose, eyes they are infected. As a Chartered Safety Professional I’ve spent 30yrs working with people who wear respiratory protective equipment and the sights I see on news bulletins from inside hospital wards scares me sh1tless. The BBC ran a story of a nurse arranging FaceTime calls for patients, I counted him touching his mask 4 times while setting up the call, he then handed the screen to the patient. If they didn’t have Covid before the call they probably have now from touching the contaminated screens. And we wonder why hospitals are now super spreaders? The worst outcome though will be the infected parties who believe that by wearing the mask they won’t spread the disease, if you trust everybody to be as conscientious as you then you’ve never seen the results of a hand hygiene test in a food factory, Petrie dishes that look like forests due… Read more »
Regarding touching the mask, I suffer from Hay Fever quite badly and would constantly have to move a mask to deal with this, not to mention that the last thing I need to do is breath warm air and have my face hot. The UK seems to have forgotten about everything other than Covid. Is this really the country that fought wars for freedom? Are we now a nation that hides under the covers at the first hint of risk?
Masks are modestly helpful at best and useless at worst. Here are all the links you need. Here are two pieces that are packed with research and tons of relevant footnotes and links. These are the best places to start. Masks-for-all for COVID-19 not based on sound data https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data Why Face Masks Don’t Work: A Revealing Review https://www.oralhealthgroup.com/features/face-masks-dont-work-revealing-review/ Here are all the collected links on masks The definitive study of masks and the 1918 Influenza http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.10.1.34 Masks have not been proved efficient enough to warrant compulsory application for the checking of epidemics, according to Dr. Kellogg, who has conducted a painstaking investigation with gauzes. This investigation is scientific in character, omitting no one of the necessary factors. It ought to settle the much argued question of masks for the public. Literature review from 2016 on why masks don’t protect dentists. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/01/should-everyone-wear-a-mask-in-public-maybe-but-its-complicated/#4aac2d0ca02f “The question a month ago was will they protect you, the wearer, and the answer is still, they probably won’t protect you,” Eli Perencevich, the University of Iowa infection prevention specialist I spoke to for the last article, said when I spoke to him today about the… Read more »
If you think a mask is going to help ANYBODY: you’re dumber than a box of rocks. Wake up! I don’t need anyone to tell me about my own breathing. Wow.
Don’t listen to the medical profession then. Jehovah Witness people would say “I don’t need anybody to tell me about my own blood” when refusing blood transfusions. They are still dumb as hell, you sound like them.
No, it is you who are dumb as hell.
[…] For more information on the (in)effectiveness of masks, see our round-up here. […]
[…] when caring for other patients.For more information on the (in)effectiveness of masks, see our round-up here.The Great Barrington DeclarationProfessor Martin Kulldorff, Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor […]
“The effectiveness of face masks in preventing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been much debated, but there seems to be an emerging consensus that they’re more effective than the authorities believed (or professed to believe) at the beginning of the outbreak.”
That is NOT correct. Empirical evidence shows that “cases” have increased after mandatory mask-wearing has been introduced. Further, studies have shown that in an everyday situation, masks are ineffective: https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/
Tears can tell so much; ( Why masks don’t work )
https://twitter.com/GauteNilsen/status/1403254959387426820
This page is linked to in the sidebar as the place to go for info on masks, so it could probably do with a update. More recent reading on masks includes this very long, but very well researched, article: https://www.justfacts.com/news_face_masks_deadly_falsehoods
….Um …this is a sceptic site, yes?
Gulag Wales: bully muzzles.
Scotistan: bully muzzles.
England: no compulsion.
Result: spectacular fall in covvishness in the Gulag and Scotistan.
Yes?
Or no?
I was asked to leave the health shop that I have shopped in for two years, Dee Atkinson Herbalist in Bristo Place, Edinburgh, on Christmas Eve for having a disability. My disability means that I cannot wear a mask – I am exempt and have the paperwork and the downloaded card. Although the Deputy Chief Medical Officer said in the letter that I should not have to prove I am exempt, I always show it when asked in order to prevent a scene. On 24 December the manager of Atkinson’s Herbalist said that I had to leave the shop and that I would be served in the street doorway. This meant that, unlike other customers, I am not allowed to browse in the shop. I told her that I had been shopping there for two years and had never been asked to leave the premises before. I have spent a total of £545 in this shop. I buy certain organic products there rather than other companies as I have wanted to support this small business during tough times. I have also recommended them to many family and friends. I have been asked by them in the past if I have… Read more »